Article: What Happened To Joe Mauer?

[tobi0040]

Back spasms early in the season. Oblique injury early in July. It's no wonder Mauer had trouble pulling the ball. Mauer hit much better after he healed (125 WRC+ during the second half).  

 

Mauer had good seasons in 2012 and 2013. It's all a matter of health.

 

I like the he wasn't fully healthy in the first half.  The switch to 1B would probably impact him the most right away. The first half/second half splits others have offered provide me with some optimism.

[HitInAPinch]

To me, it was the least influential of the issues. The OF shift did steal some hits away and may have altered his approach for a while but statistically it was not as significant as the increase in strikeouts or weaker contact. 

Absolutely agree.  Maybe the shift is getting into a hitters field of vision enough to bug him.  Otherwise, I view the shift as nothing more than interesting attempt to disrupt a hitters concentration.

[HitInAPinch]

I'm accounting last year's stats to the move away from catching.  I understand the reasoning, but how many times in the history of baseball has a great catcher moved to another position and had the same level of success?  I can't count very many.

 

As a catcher, you are far more involved in a game than any other position.

[HitInAPinch]

Love Mauer but don't believe he is vital to the Twins resurgence at this point, wonder if the Twins would be better off paying a decent portion of his salary to play somewhere else and stock up some more youth in return...?  Also, doubt his health issues suddenly disappear as he progresses through his 30's.

 

Mauer has had injury issues from the very 1st game he played at the Dome.  I'll never get the image out of my head of him making a great sliding catch of a popup near the wall, and never getting up.

 

At age 31, if he had consistent stats like 2012, he'd be tradable.  But with the injury history and contract, he is untradeable.

[jimmer]

 

At age 31, if he had consistent stats like 2012, he'd be tradable.  But with the injury history and contract, he is untradeable.

he's also untradeable because of his full no trade clause and his 10-5 rights :-)

[JB_Iowa]

There were also stories that he was pressing in the 1st half trying to make the ASG at TF,

 

I doubt if it was a big factor but just adds to the accumulation of what went wrong in the 1st half,

[jimmer]

There were also stories that he was pressing in the 1st half trying to make the ASG at TF,

 

 

could it have also had to do with the team not really having any other real offensive threat in the first half?

[mikelink45]

I think Joe has been overthinking and probably reading too many of these forums.  He is a cerebral person and a person who internalizes too much.  If he feels better that is more than half the battle.  His skills are still there, but the strike zone changing caused him to think too much, changing positions caused him to think too much, all the criticism and frustration with losing flustered him.

 

Without the big contract we would be moving on and putting him where he could do what his skill set allows.  We obsess and really who cares - better Joe than the Pohlads there is plenty of money on the team.  

 

Like all the big, long, contracts for players past their prime he will never produce what the rest of us who cannot combine our lifetime earnings to match his annual earnings want to expect.  

[Adam Houck]

I'd be careful, Parker. If you keep making points like this about Mauer with "stats" and "evidence" Aaron Gleeman will get butt-hurt and block you on Twitter

[KGB]

I'm accounting last year's stats to the move away from catching.  I understand the reasoning, but how many times in the history of baseball has a great catcher moved to another position and had the same level of success?  I can't count very many.

 

As a catcher, you are far more involved in a game than any other position.

 

I think Victor Martinez is a good comparison.  I think we often try and compare Mauer to other catchers that caught twice as many games, which isn't a good comparison.

 

I really think if he build up strength and is more agressive earlier in the count to help reduce the strike outs, there is no reason to think he can't still produce like Martinez has in his mid-30's.

[USAFChief]

It doesnt seem to me an oblique injury in July would affect his ability to pull the ball in April, May, or June.

[bird]

He could try changing shampoos.

 

He musta already switched. To Milk Wave Lilt.

 

Look it up, children. It really existed.

[jimmer]

I think we often try and compare Mauer to other catchers that caught twice as many games, which isn't a good comparison.

 

 

Which catchers are you referring to that had twice as many games played? Are you talking historically or during the time he played catcher?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think Victor Martinez is a good comparison.  I think we often try and compare Mauer to other catchers that caught twice as many games, which isn't a good comparison.

Martinez was regarded as an awful catcher and moved away from the position because nobody wanted him to catch.

 

Mauer was regarded as a very good catcher and moved away from the position because he rattled his brain one too many times.

 

Maybe not such a good comparison. If not for Mauer's FBS*, he'd still be crouching behind the dish, racking up caught games.

 

*Fuzzy Brain Syndrome

[Brock Beauchamp]

As if on cue, BP releases catcher framing analysis back to 1988. Mauer rates pretty well.

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25514

[KGB]

Martinez was regarded as an awful catcher and moved away from the position because nobody wanted him to catch.

 

Mauer was regarded as a very good catcher and moved away from the position because he rattled his brain one too many times.

 

Maybe not such a good comparison. If not for Mauer's FBS*, he'd still be crouching behind the dish, racking up caught games.

 

*Fuzzy Brain Syndrome

 

I believe the question was how to project a player in his 30's will age once moved from behind the plate.  Martinez and Mauer caught similar amount of games, so Martinez should be a good person to use on projecting how Mauer will age as a player. 

 

Mauer was a better catcher and athlete, so he should age better.  Martinez time behind the plate has not reduced his production, so I don't think we should use that as a reason for a reduction in Mauer's expectations.

[KGB]

Which catchers are you referring to that had twice as many games played? Are you talking historically or during the time he played catcher?

 

Historically, I've seen alot of post that say Mauer's production will drop because his time behind the plate and then show the drop off of other catchers in there 30's.  Stole this post from another topic (credit to Ken)

 

You have to be careful comparing Mauer to other all-time catchers, he probably going to play other position more than catcher.  Here's a listing of the 7 catchers with 2,000 hits and games played as catcher:

 

Ivan Rodriguez                       2,427

Ted Simmons                         1,771

Carlton Fisk                            2,226

Yori Berra                               1,669

Mike Piazza                            1,630

Gary Carter                             1,954

Johnny Bench                         1,742

Jason Kendall                          2,025

Joe Mauer                                   920

 

Mauer is closer to Victor Martinez in the catcher category,

[Otto von Ballpark]

Back spasms early in the season. Oblique injury early in July. It's no wonder Mauer had trouble pulling the ball. Mauer hit much better after he healed (125 WRC+ during the second half).  

 

Mauer had good seasons in 2012 and 2013. It's all a matter of health.

That second half 125 wRC+ is still notably worse than his career mark before the season (134), despite being aided by a walk rate and BABIP both higher than his career marks.  And his second half .118 ISO compared to his 2013 mark of 153 would still represent his biggest single season drop outside of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011.

 

Mauer's 2012-2013 seasons, while overall results were excellent, were also aided by above career average BABIP and BB% and in spite of skyrocketing K%.

 

Remember, a big question a year ago was whether Mauer could sustain a .320 AVG and 140 wRC+ with a K% almost twice as high as his pre-2012 career mark.  At this point, 2014 -- even just the second half -- is almost certainly a data point in favor of "no".

[jimmer]

his career wRC+ is right about 130 though.  So 125 isn't too far from that and pretty darn good for a 1B.  I'll go out on a limb and say we see a wRC+ of 135 or more from him this year while playing 135 or more games. (don't know what Molitor's game plan for subs will go).

Edited February 5, 2015 by jimmer

[KGB]

Martinez was regarded as an awful catcher and moved away from the position because nobody wanted him to catch.

 

Mauer was regarded as a very good catcher and moved away from the position because he rattled his brain one too many times.

 

Maybe not such a good comparison. If not for Mauer's FBS*, he'd still be crouching behind the dish, racking up caught games.

 

*Fuzzy Brain Syndrome

 

On Martinez defense, not sure what stat’s you were referring to on your comparison to Mauer, but looks like the Defense WAR stats are also pretty equal:

 

Martinez:

Year  Games  Defensive WAR

2003       49   2.5

2004    141   5.7

2005    147   9.4

2006    153   -2.9

2007     147   12.7

2008      73   4.6

                     32.0

  

Mauer:

Year  Games  Defensive WAR

2004      35   2.1

2005    131   7.2

2006    140   6.2

2007    109   7.6

2008    146   6.9

2009    138   4.6

                    34.6

What stat were you referring to showing Martinez as being an awful catcher?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I believe the question was how to project a player in his 30's will age once moved from behind the plate.  Martinez and Mauer caught similar amount of games, so Martinez should be a good person to use on projecting how Mauer will age as a player. 

 

Mauer was a better catcher and athlete, so he should age better.  Martinez time behind the plate has not reduced his production, so I don't think we should use that as a reason for a reduction in Mauer's expectations.

Ah, got it. Nothing to see here. Carry on, carry on.

[Jham]

I mean, I don't want to blame it all on the curse of the center field pines...  but you can't spell spell "spruce" without "curse".  No metric for black magic.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On Martinez defense, not sure what stat’s you were referring to on your comparison to Mauer, but looks like the Defense WAR stats are also pretty equal:

 

Martinez:

Year  Games  Defensive WAR

2003       49   2.5

2004    141   5.7

2005    147   9.4

2006    153   -2.9

2007     147   12.7

2008      73   4.6

                     32.0

  

Mauer:

Year  Games  Defensive WAR

2004      35   2.1

2005    131   7.2

2006    140   6.2

2007    109   7.6

2008    146   6.9

2009    138   4.6

                    34.6

What stat were you referring to showing Martinez as being an awful catcher?

I don't put much stock in defensive catcher WAR; there are too many variables that aren't accounted for in catching.

 

The most generous scouting reports I remember seeing on Martinez called him a mediocre defensive catcher. The least generous said he was awful. Scouting reports on Mauer almost universally praised his work behind the plate.

 

I haven't looked into his pitch framing stats so I don't recall if he was any good at that.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Mauer has had injury issues from the very 1st game he played at the Dome.  I'll never get the image out of my head of him making a great sliding catch of a popup near the wall, and never getting up.

 

At age 31, if he had consistent stats like 2012, he'd be tradable.  But with the injury history and contract, he is untradeable.

 

I would argue that Joe Mauer has been untradeable since June 5, 2001.

[Otto von Ballpark]

his career wRC+ is right about 130 though.  So 125 isn't too far from that and pretty darn good for a 1B.  I'll go out on a limb and say we see a wRC+ of 135 or more from him this year while playing 135 or more games. (don't know what Molitor's game plan for subs will go).

His career wRC+ was 134 entering the 2014 season.  His best ~2 months of 2014 was 125.  And even that small sample is worse than every full season of his since his first few years in the league, save for the 2011 lost season.

 

135 for 2015 is definitely on a limb, but I hope he does it too.  In fairness to Mauer, he has scuffled with injury before and rebounded, but the last time was 3 years ago when he had a much lower K rate.  (Maybe part of his comeback approach in 2012-2013 forced his K rate higher, which is fine, but that would cast doubt on whether he could successfully double down on that approach in 2015.)

[jimmer]

yes his 2012 and 2013 season were very under-rated due to people looking at traditional counting stats and, in the case of 2013, the concussion that halted a very good season.  I think he bounces back to be the kind of player he was in those two seasons.

Edited February 5, 2015 by jimmer

[ashbury]

I think Victor Martinez is a good comparison.

I hope not.  (With reference to today's news about the torn meniscus.)

[James Richter]

I couldn't find them today, but I remember seeing some stats a couple months ago to the effect that Mauer had faced an increasing number of 1st-pitch strikes over the last couple seasons, approaching 60% in 2014. For his career, he has a .988 OPS if the 1st pitch is a ball, a .727 OPS if it's a strike, and a 1.046 OPS if he puts it in play. If I'm an opposing pitcher needing to get Mauer out in a key spot, I'm laying the 1st pitch in there. Why even take the chance of missing the corner when he takes it almost 90% of the time?

 

I think it would make a big difference for Mauer's production if he ripped the 1st pitch even 16-17% of time.

[jimmer]

 

 

I think it would make a big difference for Mauer's production if he ripped the 1st pitch even 16-17% of time.

I think it would be good for him to do it more often if only to keep pitchers honest.

[Paul Pleiss]

Joe Mauer just needs to drink more milk, obviously.