Article: Dozier's Expected Extension

[Cody Christie]

Brian Dozier isn't arbitration eligible until next offseason but rumors are already starting to build about a possible extension between the second baseman and the Twins. He is under team control until 2019 when he will be coming off his age-29 season. There isn't necessarily a rush to get a deal done but a source close to the Twins said to expect an extension in place before the season's start.What would a Dozier extension look like?

Last year the Cleveland Indians locked up their All-Star second baseman Jason Kipnis with a $52.5 million, six-year contract. The deal also included a club option for a seventh year. If the Twins followed a similar format, they would be buying out all of Dozier's arbitration years and paying for his first couple of years of free agency.

 

Another second baseman to recently sign an extension was Jedd Gyorko of the San Diego Padres. Gyorko signed a six-year, $35 million extension. However, he was coming off his rookie season so the deal came at an earlier point in his career than an extension for Dozier would be in his career.

 

It seems more likely for the total dollar amount to be closer to Kipnis than to Gyorko.

 

The Roller Coaster Ride

Dozier provides an interesting case for the Twins. He's shown signs of great things but there have been some ups and downs to his offensive performance. Let's start with the good. Dozier ended the 2013 season strong and started the 2014 season on fire.

 

2013, second half: .253/.313/.443, 10 HR, 18 2B, 34 R, 23 BB

2014, first half: .242/.340/.436, 18 HR, 16 2B, 69 R, 52 BB

 

In these two half seasons that's over 100 runs scored and closing in on 30 home runs. Any team in baseball would gladly take those numbers from a second baseman.

 

The other halves surrounding these two strong performances weren't quite as good.

 

2013 first half: .235/.310/.386, 8 HR, 15 2B, 38 R, 28 BB

2014 second half: .244/.352/.387, 5 HR, 17 2B, 43 R, 37 BB

 

If these two halves were combined, his OBP would still be high but his power numbers take a dip compared to the halves mentioned above.

 

So which Dozier is the really Dozier?

 

It's most likely that he will end up somewhere between these two extremes. ZiPS projects Dozier to hit 17 home runs with 30 doubles. His projected 86 runs scored aren't the eye-popping 112 he posted in 2014 but it's still a decent total. If he reaches his projected slash-line of .244/.321/.399, all three of those totals would be higher than his career mark.

 

 

Dozier has become a fan favorite over the last couple of years and that could help him at the negotiating table. It seems likely that both sides would want to get a long-term deal in place, so don't be surprised if Dozier is "dotting his i's" before opening day.

 

For more from Cody Christie make sure to follow him on Twitter @NoDakTwinsFan and to read his other work at http://www.NoDakTwinsFan.com

 

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[Shane Wahl]

This article doesn't really address the issue in much depth. It's been discussed quite wildly and thoroughly in discussion board threads on a few occasions. 

 

If the Twins actually do this right now, they are making a weird mistake. 

[Shane Wahl]

If I were the owner, I would just give him a nice little bonus for his performance thus far. The spend 2.7 million bucks on Brian Duensing for no reason, why not boost Dozier's salary to 1 million bucks for 2015?

[Parker Hageman]

That's the picture you guys use? Really?

[Platoon]

The article says he is under team control until 2019. And we don't have a real handle on which BD is the one we would sign? He is a competent ball player, but the Twins have some promising middle infield players in the pipeline. The only reason it seems to sign him at this time would be for ticket sales.

[nytwinsfan]

Yeah, I lean against an extension, especially when you have a likely solid 2nd Baseman in Polanco or (if Santana sticks at short) Gordon waiting in the wings. Obviously if the terms are good enough and you can lock him at a good rate then sure, but I have a bad premonition of an untradeable, fading (with age) unnecessary Dozier in 2018.

[drock2190]

Going to be a mistake if they give him too much money. He kind of came out of nowhere, who's to say that his production could fall off a cliff?

 

Year to year is the way to go in this case.

[jimmer]

'Brian Dozier isn't arbitration eligible until next offseason but rumors are already starting to build about a possible extension between the second baseman and the Twins. He is under team control until 2019 when he will be coming off his age-29 season.'

 

Coming off his age-29 season?  It's 2015 and he turns 28 in May of this year. 

 

He's not able to be a FA until after the 2018 season at which time he'll be 31.

Edited January 30, 2015 by jimmer

[nicksaviking]

Wait until the All-Star break at the earliest.  There's no rush and we need a larger sample.  I'm not big on players much older than their early 30's anyway. 

 

Additionally, what if the team gets lucky and some combinaiton Santana/Escobar/Polanco/Rosario end up showing they are good if not better options?  Dozier and his 4 years of arbitration will be a lot more enticing for other teams than Dozier and a 6 year firm contract no matter how he performs.

Edited January 30, 2015 by nicksaviking

[jmlease1]

I have zero problem with the Twins buying out his arbitration years and a year or 2 of free agency. The basic form is, Dozier gets the security of a long-term deal and the Twins get a discount over what they would have paid year by year. 

 

I think it's unlikely the Twins will have to go as high as Kipnis' deal; Dozier has never put together a season as good as Kipnis' all-star campaign and that drove a lot of that money. 

 

There's some risk in this seeing as how Dozier hasn't put together a complete consistent season yet, but when you factor the potential and the defense, he's an asset I think you want to lock down. I'd suggest the price is more likely to go up than go down if the team waits until say, the all-star break or next season to make a deal happen. If Dozier puts together back to back 5 WAR seasons he's not going to be cheap at all.

[jimmer]

I think if you had to pick one guy on that team and say HE is the leader, it'd be Dozier.  Of course, that is completely opinion. That opinion is based on how he carries himself on the field, along with how he seems to push people with his infectious playing style. He's like Punto but with actual starting talent and solid fundamentals.

[toosweet64]

If Dozier gets Kipnis money, Terry Ryan should be let go. The Twins have no reason to give him a contract at this point.  Let him play this year and an additional arbitration year and see what you really have. But he needs to bat down in the order, not at the 2 spot. The Twins have Polanco and Nick Gordon developing and Santana should get every chance to play SS.  If Santana isn't playing an adequate SS by the time Gordon is ready, move Danny to 2nd base.  

[DuluthFan]

Wasn't this topic thoroughly covered in several other threads already?

 

He is under team control for 4 more years. He cannot go anywhere. When he reaches arbitration, he will be paid based on his on-field performance in comparison to other players with the same service time. The Twins haven't lost an arbitration hearing since Kyle Lohse. They have settled or won every one since.

 

If Dozier does perform at a high level through his arbitration years and it appears that he will be too expensive to keep, the Twins could make a qualifying offer when he reaches free agency and receive a draft pick for compensation if he leaves.

[Shane Wahl]

Precisely!! 

 

A lot depends on Santana and Polanco right now. Dozier might bring back some serious assets if he does well and is still so cheap. The Twins are going to get better and won't have these great draft picks anymore. Selling on Hunter, Dozier, and some pitcher might be quite helpful this year.

 

Wait until the All-Star break at the earliest.  There's no rush and we need a larger sample.  I'm not big on players much older than their early 30's anyway. 

 

Additionally, what if the team gets lucky and some combinaiton Santana/Escobar/Polanco/Rosario end up showing they are good if not better options?  Dozier and his 4 years of arbitration will be a lot more enticing for other teams than Dozier and a 6 year firm contract no matter how he performs.

[Dman]

I guess if He is going to give the team a deal to lock him up early then why not do it.  If you are going to pay him Kipnis money then why not wait.

 

I think both sides will be happier in the future if they wait and see what he does this year.  If he performs as well or better than last year then he gets more money and he won't feel cheated having signed for less.  If he performs poorly the team isn't stuck with him to the end of the contract.  I think waiting is the better plan for all concerned on this one.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the extension is a good idea.  The mistake would be to buy out more than 1 year of his FA.  I'd probably have years 2 and 3 as options personally.  It lowers the price of the contract and also makes it much more tradable. 

[Thrylos]

The Twins need to sell high on Dozier.  Cannot and should not expend based on a single above average season, otherwise they have not learned from the mistake called Blackburn, Nicholas.

[Linus]

Don't extend.  The Twins are in a perfect position with him - they have him cost controlled through his prime and then can deal him or let him walk and get a draft pick, precisely at the time they don't want him anymore. 

 

I'm curious who the source is on this.  I really hope the Twins don't do this......

[Thrylos]

I'm curious who the source is on this.  I really hope the Twins don't do this......

 

I think that there might be semantic confusion on rumors and wishful thinking and opinions here.

[jorgenswest]

I don't think it is coming from the Twins. It doesn't make any sense to extend him into his free agent year. At this point his career OPS+ is 98. It is extremely rare that a player will outperform their career OPS+ through age 27 during their age 32 season or older. Trade him by age 30.

Edited January 31, 2015 by jorgenswest

[TKGuy]

I think if you had to pick one guy on that team and say HE is the leader, it'd be Dozier.  Of course, that is completely opinion. That opinion is based on how he carries himself on the field, along with how he seems to push people with his infectious playing style. He's like Punto but with actual starting talent and solid fundamentals.

 

Dozier's style of play reminds me of Molitor. I'm not saying he is Molitor, but the base running, aggressiveness, etc seem like Molitor

[halfchest]

It's pretty much impossible to judge an extension without seeing the dollars and years.  I think the best deal would be a reasonable purchase of his arbitration years to give Dozier some guaranteed money in case of injury or decline and the Twins some cost certainty.  

 

In addition having a couple of higher price option years that are representative of how he should get paid if he continues to hit 20 homers and play top notch defense.  That way the Twins aren't stuck with him long term if he declines rapidly but he also gets a couple nice paydays if they do keep him.  I'm all for taking a chance on an extension, if he puts up another year like 2014 his price is going to increase rapidly next offseason.  

[HitInAPinch]

I'd definitely hold off on an extension.  As has been pointed out, there is a bevy of talented infielders either on the team now or in the minors.  If Dozier does put it altogether this season, trade him along with one of these pitching duds they've acquired over the past couple years and restock the minors.  Hopefully with some outfielders.  Still can't figure out how the Twins ran out last year.....

[USAFChief]

I wouldn't extend Dozier. He's an asset, to be sure, but there isn't any need to do so. The Twins can simply take whatever risk arbitration presents, and avoid the risk of a guaranteed contract.

[Major League Ready]

It just makes no sense to extend right now.  Polanco will be ready by 2016 or 2017 at the latest.  Trade Dozier in the final 2 years of team control and get a nice return..  This also is one of the reason they need to figure out of Santana is a SS.  If Santana pans out at SS, Polanco is our future 2B.  I like Dozier but why in the world do you want to risk having big dollars tied up in Dozier.  He will be less attractive as a trade asset or worse, his performance goes south and the contract is not only an impediment but you don't get anything in trade.  

 

You can also look at it this way.  He performs great, you get a great return in trade during the last two years of team control.  You replace him with Polanco or maybe even Michael in the next two years giving us more payroll to work with as the team becomes a contender.  If he falls off, you don't have a big financial commitment to a mediocre player.  The only way it's a good idea is if he improves quite substantially.  I don't like the odds of that happening.

Edited February 1, 2015 by Major Leauge Ready