Article: How Secure Is Suzuki's Starting Job?

[Shane Wahl]

Does anyone look at Terry Steinbach and say "what the hell did you even do here?" For the Twins to almost shut down Pinto as a backup and to shutdown Herrmann as the third guy is quite troubling. Neither one has such bad defense. Pinto is likely below average but he REALLY likes to learn and get better. Herrmann was only slightly below average to begin with.

Suzuki is going to return to his worst at the plate. He really fooled the Twins. And, of course, ultimately, his defense is nothing to write home about. He is a good backup. Pinto should be starting and should be made ready to start by now.

 

[Thrylos]

Does anyone look at Terry Steinbach and say "what the hell did you even do here?" For the Twins to almost shut down Pinto as a backup and to shutdown Herrmann as the third guy is quite troubling. Neither one has such bad defense. Pinto is likely below average but he REALLY likes to learn and get better. Herrmann was only slightly below average to begin with.

 

Agreed about Steinbach being dead weight.   What I do not agree about is that Herrmann's defense at Catcher was below average.  Here. Check out who BA has as the best defensive Catcher in the Twins' organization in their 2013 top 10 prospect list.  And Pinto is not that bad.  Really.  People (including in the Twins' organization) can say what they want to say, but it is not more than an opinion and those vary.   Young catchers need to catch to learn (and I think that there is consensus pretty much about this opinion)

[jay]

It would be curious to hear someone from the Twins org opine on what they value in catcher defense. It's certainly not framing and it seems that blocking matters a lot.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Pinto got a tough shake. In general terms of just winning ballgames, here was the Twins W-L record when:

 

Pinto caught Hughes: 2-0

Pinto caught Gibson: 1-0

Pinto caught Pelfrey: 2-1

Pinto caught K Johnson: 0-1

Pinto caught Deduno: 3-3

Pinto caught Correia: 0-5

 

This was all prior to Pinto's being sent back to the minors in June (because supposedly he needed work), after catching in that horrible Sunday afternoon loss to the Astros. #accountability

 

If people say Pinto and Suzuki are about the same defensively, that sounds right to me. I would think Suzuki's job is safe but I think having only the 2 catchers on the 40 man is a good signal that Pinto will be given his due this year and that there will be little to no net dropoff when Pinto catches.

[jokin]

I'd rather see Pinto get a chance to be the starter because he as more potential than Suzuki and to improve as an MLB catcher you have to (well...) catch MLB pitchers. And he and Suzuki are not that far away with the glove (and Pinto has a better bat.) Mike Piaza and Brian Harper were not even close to being gold glove catchers, but they were cornerstones for their teams.

 

 

ZiPS really likes Pinto's chances to succeed in 2015 (and they liked him in 2014, as well... both ZiPS and Steamer had him at 2.7 fWAR-- by contrast, Suzuki got a big contract with a 2.0 fWAR season in 2014).

 

In 2015, ZiPS projects Pinto as a 2.1 fWAR player, with Suzuki falling back to earth with a 1.1 fWAR, a dropoff in his offense is coupled with a drop in Zuke's Defensive ranking from  4.0 positive to  a projected -4.0 negative (and practically matching Pinto's defensive projection-> -5.0).

 

I was not in any way whatsoever impressed by Pinto behind the plate last year for the Twins, but I thought he looked much more comfortable and capable catching Alex Meyer when I saw him playing for Rochester late last summer, and he's crushing the ball in Winter League while catching a good majority of the time.  The big contract for Suzuki is likely going to dictate the "justification" for playing time at the outset of the season, but I'd like to see Molitor make a concerted effort in finding ways in getting Pinto 400+ PAs in 2015.

Edited January 18, 2015 by jokin

[Linus]

 

 

ZiPS really likes Pinto's chances to succeed in 2015 (and they liked him in 2014, as well... both ZiPS and Steamer had him at 2.7 fWAR-- by contrast, Suzuki got a big contract with a 2.0 fWAR season in 2014).

In 2015, ZiPS projects Pinto as a 2.1 fWAR player, with Suzuki falling back to earth with a 1.1 fWAR, a dropoff in his offense is coupled with a drop in Zuke's Defensive ranking from 4.0 positive to a projected -4.0 negative (and practically matching Pinto's defensive projection-> -5.0).

I was not in any way whatsoever impressed by Pinto behind the plate last year for the Twins, but I thought he looked much more comfortable and capable catching Alex Meyer when I saw him playing for Rochester late last summer, and he's crushing the ball in Winter League while catching a good majority of the time. The big contract for Suzuki is likely going to dictate the "justification" for playing time at the outset of the season, but I'd like to see Molitor make a concerted effort in finding ways in getting Pinto 400+ PAs in 2015.

Except that the contract is not big. At 6 mil they can easily make him the backup. TR was ready to deal him last year until he agreed to an affordable deal turns out he is cheap insurance

[jokin]

 

Except that the contract is not big.

At 6 mil they can easily make him the backup.

TR was ready to deal him last year until he agreed to an affordable deal turns out he is cheap insurance

 

For the MN Twins organization and their comfort zone for the dollars they've shown they're comfortable to throw around, $6M X 2 is BIG, not simply "cheap insurance."  That dollar figure represents the 3rd highest paid position player on the team.  Suzuki will likely start out the season playing 70% of the time. I don't know the extent of Molitor's relationship with Suzuki, but with Steinbach gone and Molitor looking for support from around the clubhouse, Suzuki is likely to be relied upon for more game-planning and in-game input than last year, not less.

 

Suszuki isn't going to be insurance of any kind, cheap or expensive, unless and until Pinto can prove that he's the better overall option.

[Seth Stohs]

Short answer... Suzuki has a ton of job security. Of course, that could change by about June, though not likely.

[Shane Wahl]

Agreed about Steinbach being dead weight.   What I do not agree about is that Herrmann's defense at Catcher was below average.  Here. Check out who BA has as the best defensive Catcher in the Twins' organization in their 2013 top 10 prospect list.  And Pinto is not that bad.  Really.  People (including in the Twins' organization) can say what they want to say, but it is not more than an opinion and those vary.   Young catchers need to catch to learn (and I think that there is consensus pretty much about this opinion)

I agree with all of this. I didn't want to say too much about Herrmann given my history of liking him since 2011. I have been very confused about the treatment of the backup catching options. Herrmann and Pinto both caught at Rochester and were obviously good enough to keep catching. And they both really hit there too.

[Shane Wahl]

Also, Hermann is still on the 40-man roster, so they do have three catchers. I doubt that Molitor is going to continue the inanity from Gardenhire and Steinbach about Pinto and Herrmann being catchers.

[jokin]

Also, Hermann is still on the 40-man roster, so they do have three catchers. I doubt that Molitor is going to continue the inanity from Gardenhire and Steinbach about Pinto and Herrmann being catchers.

 

I'm looking forward to the first test to see if things have actually changed- ie, the first quote from Molitor about "but we only have two catchers... angst! angst!... we might lose the DH for one or two ABs!". I have to think that the slate will finally be wiped clean on that front once and for all. 

 

The way Pinto is mashing the ball this winter (and still catching 3/4ths of the time), it would be unfortunate and shortsighted if the Twins couldn't find a way to get Pinto at least 400 PAs to find out for certain if he's definitely ready to take the next step forward in his career.

[Platoon]

Except that the contract is not big. At 6 mil they can easily make him the backup. TR was ready to deal him last year until he agreed to an affordable deal turns out he is cheap insurance

But one of the problems is that it's not all about the money. Once you sign a guy like Suzuki to an extension, his playing time becomes a gauge on commentary on your decision making. I would not only have never extended him last year, I would have sold high. I don't know if the manager change will alleviate the problem/perception that I and I think some others have. And that is the Twins put an inordinate amount of weight to the character and likability of a player, in relation to other teams.

[Linus]

But one of the problems is that it's not all about the money. Once you sign a guy like Suzuki to an extension, his playing time becomes a gauge on commentary on your decision making. I would not only have never extended him last year, I would have sold high. I don't know if the manager change will alleviate the problem/perception that I and I think some others have. And that is the Twins put an inordinate amount of weight to the character and likability of a player, in relation to other teams.

And your catcher last year (and this year) would have been?????

[jokin]

But one of the problems is that it's not all about the money. Once you sign a guy like Suzuki to an extension, his playing time becomes a gauge on commentary on your decision making. I would not only have never extended him last year, I would have sold high. I don't know if the manager change will alleviate the problem/perception that I and I think some others have. And that is the Twins put an inordinate amount of weight to the character and likability of a player, in relation to other teams.

 

Spot-on post... recollecting... at the point of the Suzuki re-sign, Zuke-lover Gardy, was still being publicly backed by Ryan, and Suzuki was riding high- both on the field and in the media- he was cast as indispensable in his role with the Twins (by and through the usual suspects clamoring to keep him).  Ryan seemingly blinked, and ended up opting for PR upside rather than Personnel upgrade.

Edited January 21, 2015 by jokin

[jokin]

And your catcher last year (and this year) would have been?????

 

The extended organizational roster was/is full of AAAA catchers, plus, more importantly, the last two months of 2014 should have been the time for a thorough evaluation of exactly where Pinto (and to a lesser extent, Herrman) was at, and how he fit into future plans. That burning question now remains on hold for at least another season.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

And your catcher last year (and this year) would have been?????

Beans!

[Platoon]

And your catcher last year (and this year) would have been?????

I agree with Jokin on this. It was a time to cash in on Suzuki's aberration of a half season and sell high. Then use the last half of yet another lost year to evaluate and educate Pinto. If it works, great, if not what's the worst that can happen. The Twins were in a relatively unique place in their baseball existence. And I have never been sure, or understood who exactly they thought they were fooling by pretending that some of the moves they made were important to their future. The only person with a defensible argument for these moves was Gardy. He needed to squeeze out every win he could in 2014 to keep his job. He can hardly be blamed for making some short term decisions. But for the FO to do so is a troubling sign.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

And your catcher last year (and this year) would have been?????

yeah I've been racking my brain on this question for the last half hour. I got nuthin'.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

But one of the problems is that it's not all about the money. Once you sign a guy like Suzuki to an extension, his playing time becomes a gauge on commentary on your decision making. I would not only have never extended him last year, I would have sold high. I don't know if the manager change will alleviate the problem/perception that I and I think some others have. And that is the Twins put an inordinate amount of weight to the character and likability of a player, in relation to other teams.

Agree. Although.

 

Suzuki earned every minute of his playing time and every dollar of his new contract. He is the starter in 2015. Like you said though, doesnt necessarily mean it was the best thing to do to extend him. I'm sure they entertained offers though, no doubt.

[jokin]

And your catcher last year (and this year) would have been?????

 

yeah I've been racking my brain on this question for the last half hour. I got nuthin'.

 

As I wrote at the time of the re-signing-  If the Twins were really sold on Suzuki longer-term, after cashing in on him and picking up another propsect or two, they could have easily revisited the FA market for him this offseason.  I highly doubt he could have done better than what he ended up signing for with the Twins in July.  And Pinto gets his extended look-see.  It would have been like having your cake, and eating it too.

Edited January 21, 2015 by jokin

[Platoon]

Agree. Although.

Suzuki earned every minute of his playing time and every dollar of his new contract. He is the starter in 2015. Like you said though, doesnt necessarily mean it was the best thing to do to extend him. I'm sure they entertained offers though, no doubt.

I totally agree. I have nothing against him whatsoever. I would taken every penny and a little more. To me he would be a great back up, even on a contender. Maybe more so on a contender. My position relates to his being extended and hindering the evaluation of a Pinto. To me it is symptomatic of many other Twins decisions. When you are where they are, a bird in the hand is not necessarily as good as two in the bush.

[Linus]

As I wrote at the time of the re-signing-  If the Twins were really sold on Suzuki longer-term, after cashing in on him and picking up another propsect or two, they could have easily revisited the FA market for him this offseason.  I highly doubt he could have done better than what he ended up signing for with the Twins in July.  And Pinto gets his extended look-see.  It would have been like having your cake, and eating it too.

Assuming you were going to be able to turn around and sign him in the off season is a big leap of faith.  The market for catchers was horrendous and he would have had several teams after him.  I think the Twins made their assessment of Pinto, at least for last year, and decided they needed a proven catcher.  I hope Pinto plays so well that Suzuki ends up being the backup but to not have anybody would end up looking like CF that we are all so critical of.  At $6 mil, they can do whatever they want with him - start him, sit him, trade him.

[Rosterman]

I see no reason to have Pinto up in the majors if he is only going to catch, at most, once thru the rotation. Would rather see him catch everyday at Rochester for the first part of the season, see what Suzsucki does. But who do you add as the backup? Fryer? No way. Herrmann? Man, if you keep Pinto, you keep him so you can DH either if you wish. De San Miguel, the guy who played with every Twins minor league team in a season it seems, is back in the fold, but at AAA with Herrmann.2 Rohlfing. 

 

I was actually pretty surprised the Twins weren't able to move Suz during the trade deadline last year (a s well as Swarzak, Duensing, Burton or anyone not named Willingham). Maybe we do value many of our players too highly. That someone actually does want them on a major league roster.

[jokin]

Assuming you were going to be able to turn around and sign him in the off season is a big leap of faith.  The market for catchers was horrendous and he would have had several teams after him.  I think the Twins made their assessment of Pinto, at least for last year, and decided they needed a proven catcher.  I hope Pinto plays so well that Suzuki ends up being the backup but to not have anybody would end up looking like CF that we are all so critical of.  At $6 mil, they can do whatever they want with him - start him, sit him, trade him.

 

There were many major league catchers on the move in the offseason, just not so much on the FA market. Based on some of the trades I've seen, the Twins had plenty of spare pieces and prospects to snap up another major league catcher without hindering the long-term plan. They can still trade for Wellington Castillo who appears to be expendable in Chicago. They even could have brought back AJ for a year on the super-cheap as a FA.

 

Regarding Pinto, I wonder how good and thorough the Twins assessment actually was? We all know what Gardy did with him early on, slightly less than 30% playing rate at the position.  But people forget that Gardy only put Pinto in the lineup at Catcher for 8 games in his September call-up- almost the exact same playing rate at Catcher. The evidence is that Gardy was allowed to play for the present- and his job- when it comes to the catcher position. 

Edited January 21, 2015 by jokin

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Assuming you were going to be able to turn around and sign him in the off season is a big leap of faith.  The market for catchers was horrendous and he would have had several teams after him.  I think the Twins made their assessment of Pinto, at least for last year, and decided they needed a proven catcher.  I hope Pinto plays so well that Suzuki ends up being the backup but to not have anybody would end up looking like CF that we are all so critical of.  At $6 mil, they can do whatever they want with him - start him, sit him, trade him.

all very true, but it is a big leap of faith to extend a 30 year old catcher having a career year. Last time they extended a catcher having a career year, they got burned badly. Very different comparing Mauer and Suzuki, and 6 mil is money Pohlad can find in his couch cushions, but it is still faithful. I think it was just as much an assessment of players other than Pinto. They have Pinto, Fryer and Herrman, none of whom have endured the entire ML season behind the dish, regardless of stats, how do you fill out a bench if you don't have at least one workhorse catcher? My concern is, they didn't test the water to find out if any of those three named could weather the rigor.