Article: How Secure Is Suzuki's Starting Job?

[Nick Nelson]

When you look up and down the Twins' projected starting lineup for 2015, there are a number of potential weak spots.

 

Neither Danny Santana nor Kennys Vargas is a lock to maintain their stellar rookie performances. Joe Mauer is a giant question mark at this point. We still don't really know who's going to play center field.

 

But one area that few people are talking about is catcher, where the Twins are counting on Kurt Suzuki to back up one of the best seasons of his career. What happens if he can't?At the trade deadline in 2014, with Suzuki's name floating around in rumors, Terry Ryan decided instead to lock up the veteran backstop with a two-year extension. At the time, Suzuki was batting over .300 with an above-average OPS, and his strong first half had even earned him an All-Star appearance.

 

Yet, in the context of Suzuki's career, the quality offensive output looked somewhat unsustainable -- his .760 OPS at the end of July was 70 points higher than his career mark, and he hadn't even finished above .700 since 2009.

 

Had he really recaptured the ability that made him a major asset for the Athletics in the earlier portion of his career, or had he simply enjoyed a few good months? When your production is based so heavily on putting the ball in play and collecting singles, things can turn around in quite a hurry.

 

Unfortunately, that's just what happened to Suzuki. After signing his extension, he hit .248/.290/.366 the rest of the way. Those numbers line up far more closely with his career slash line: .257/.314/.376.

 

That kind of production wouldn't exactly be disastrous -- American League catchers hit just .241/.301/.374 overall in 2014, meaning Suzuki was essentially average even in his diminished second-half capacity -- but what if the 31-year-old continues to slide toward the sub par level he was at in 2012 and 2013?

 

This brings us to a question that is likely be discussed frequently this spring and summer: What do the Twins really think of Josmil Pinto?

 

The 25-year-old's future became murky after Minnesota extended Suzuki's contract for two years; would the team have committed $12 million to the veteran if they truly envisioned Pinto taking over the reins any time soon?

 

The answer is... maybe. Suzuki's $6 million salary wouldn't be all that ridiculous even if he's only playing part-time, especially when you consider the depth he adds at a position that -- outside of Pinto -- is almost barren at the highest levels. (Beyond these two, there are no catchers currently on the 40-man roster.)

 

Suzuki's presence allows the Twins to be very patient with the development of Pinto's defensive skills, and that likely played a big part in the decision to keep him around. But what if Pinto's proficiency behind the plate does not improve, or Suzuki's regression hits harder and faster than expected?

 

With a lack of appealing alternatives on the extended roster -- or, really, anywhere in the organization -- it's hard to say at this point. Unless they are willing to make some concessions defensively and let Pinto's bat carry him, the Twins might be tied to Suzuki -- for better or worse.

 

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[Paul Pleiss]

Beans, Beans, the magical fruit. The more you eat, the more you toot, the more you toot, the better you feel. Let's have beans for every meal.

 

I think Josmil Pinto (Beans) is ready to be called into service should Kurt's motorcycle shop be unable to go. That being said, a defensive catcher with no offensive upside could be added to the 40-man, or acquired via trade, without too much difficulty, should the need arise.

 

Zook will be fine. Pinto will be a servicable backup and provide offensive upside off the bench, something this team NEEDS more than a Drew Butera type riding the pine.

[Eephus]

It would be great to see Pinto improve, but he's been catching since he was 18. It seems like people think of him as this raw, converted to catcher, learning the tools of the trade type of guy. But he's caught 393 games in the minors. 40 or so more in the majors. If he hasn't picked it up by now, it doesn't appear he's "catching on" too well. He even DH'd 25 games in Rochester last year. Was he injured or is he seen as something other than a catcher?

 

To answer the question posed in the headline: I'd say if Suzuki stays healthy and bats his weight (listed at 230), he's very safe.

[nytwinsfan]

Let's trade with Giants for Andrew Susac. I hear they need a legit 3rd basemen, so maybe Plouffe for Susac before the trade deadline? Depending on how Plouffe's and Susac's years are going, we might need to throw in a prospect as well.

[KGB]

He pretty secure with his position, but I hope Pinto get more playing time. 

 

I would expect Suzuki to go backward, but the standard for catcher hitting isn't very high.  He can be a placeholder for some of the catching prospect to develop and any tradable assets they have can help the fill the outfield weakness.

[Ben Noble]

Unless he suddenly develops some defensive chops, Pinto is best served as an offensive compliment to a defensive-minded backstop. Suzuki's starting job is secure for 2015, but if Turner continues to develop this season at AA the Twins could be eyeing a combination of Turner and Pinto behind the plate as early as the 2016 trade deadline. 

[Mike Sixel]

I find it somehwat specious to say Pinto can't play defense ..... we just haven't seen him enough to know. This is the same team that thought Hardy couldn't play defense....

[Willihammer]

I'd guess we're looking at a 60/40 target

 

Hughes - Suzuki (this is a lock)

Santana- Suzuki

Gibson - Pinto

Nolasco- Suzuki

May/Milone/5th starter - Pinto

[Lonestar]

IMO, catchers are called "backstops" for a reason.  It's their job to keep the ball from rolling to the backstop.  Catching defense is way overated because they play up the middle, they are involved on every pitch, and their defensive position is hard on their offense. [That doesn't mean that Doumit's defense was acceptable.]

 

Consider pitch framing.  If some of these catchers like Rene Rivera add so much value with their pitch framing, then their pitchers must stink.  Here's the thing: Somewhere out there in cyberspace is a quote from an umpire that said there was night and day difference between Pinto's framing when he was sent down last year and when he came back up. His pitch framing should be serviceable.

 

Until last year, Pinto was good at throwing out base runners.  If there is no special cause, I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

I honestly don't know what is so hard about calling pitches, especially when pitchers can wave off the call.  Is it Pinto's English?  I expect the Twins pitch sequencing to improve with the new pitching coach.  [Look for Kyle Gibson to break out.] It would be helpful if bullpen coach Eddie Guardado was fluent in Spanish.

 

So that basically gets us down to passed balls and blocking pitches in the dirt. Just how bad is Pinto at blocking pitches and allowing passed balls? Is he improving?

 

The average AL catcher put up a .675 OPS.  The unweighted OPS of the 6 AL catchers who qualified for the batting title was .709.  I expect Pinto to beat that number by .100 once he settles in.  That would allow for a lot of passed balls and unblocked pitches.  Maybe some can do the math on that.

 

If the Twins don't give up on Pinto too soon, the biggest thing that would keep him from displacing Suzuki would be Vargas' failure at DH.

[jimmer]

Suzuki was rated as one of the worst framers in baseball last year and his unsustainable first half hitting predictably came back down to his normal poor level in the last couple months. I would hope his job isn't secure in the least.

[Mike Sixel]

Suzuki was rated as one of the worst framers in baseball last year and his unsustainable first half hitting predictably came back down to his normal poor level in the last couple months. I would hope his job isn't secure in the least.

 

Agreed. But, the Twins don't seem to care all that much about "advanced" statistics. Surprised they didn't hire Dave Stewart (other than he "isn't one of us").

[Dantes929]

I tend to agree that Suzuki is secure as long as he can hit his career numbers rather than his career year numbers.   I also agree that he is not an elite defensive catcher so concerns over the difference between him and Pinot shouldn't be over dramatized. 

By the way, I do not consider Mauer to be much of a question mark.  He is still by far the most likely guy on the team to hit over .300.   Vargas did not really have a stellar year.   He hit about what I would expect of him.   Its not like he outperformed his minor league numbers.   Santana is a different story.

[nytwinsfan]

Consider pitch framing.  If some of these catchers like Rene Rivera add so much value with their pitch framing, then their pitchers must stink. 

 

I don't understand why that follows, at all. Even very good pitchers pitch lots of balls on or close to the border of the strike zone. Having a good pitch framer may make some of those strikes that would have otherwise been balls; same as for a "stinky" pitcher. At very very most, pitch framing might add slightly more value for a mediocre pitcher who can't locate in the zone as consistently. But that is not at all clear. Some bad and mediocre pitchers are bad and mediocre because they throw too many meatballs over the center or near-center of the plate while better pitchers paint the corners, knees, and belt. Under that scenario, a good pitch framer could end up helping a good pitcher more than a mediocre or bad pitcher.

 

That being said, I don't think that pitch framing is the end all of catcher value (or that the current ways of measuring it are perfect), and I do agree that Pinto should be given a decent chance to show his defensive ability, because his offensive upside is significant.

[jimmer]

'Baseball Prospectus has developed metrics that measure, in essence, the extent to which catchers are responsible for the calls that go their way. When you consider how many times a good framer influences at-bats, and how many runs that can save during the course of a season, you see how truly valuable he is to his team. Now that's a great catcher.'--http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/11127248/how-catcher-framing-becoming-great-skill-smart-teams-new-york-yankees-espn-magazine

[toosweet64]

The Twins should already be looking for a young, starting caliber catcher currently with another team that they can acquire.  Stuart Turner profiles as a defensive minded back up as he will struggle to hit MLB pitching.  In my opinion, if Pinto hasn't developed enough defensively by this point, he's not likely to. 

[nytwinsfan]

The Twins should already be looking for a young, starting caliber catcher currently with another team that they can acquire.  Stuart Turner profiles as a defensive minded back up as he will struggle to hit MLB pitching.  In my opinion, if Pinto hasn't developed enough defensively by this point, he's not likely to. 

Cough cough, Andrew Susac (see my post above).  Although I don't think we should give up on Pinto quite yet.

[nater79a]

I tend to agree that Suzuki is secure as long as he can hit his career numbers rather than his career year numbers.   I also agree that he is not an elite defensive catcher so concerns over the difference between him and Pinot shouldn't be over dramatized. 

By the way, I do not consider Mauer to be much of a question mark.  He is still by far the most likely guy on the team to hit over .300.   Vargas did not really have a stellar year.   He hit about what I would expect of him.   Its not like he outperformed his minor league numbers.   Santana is a different story.

 

We can carry Suzuki's .250 career average if we don't see a huge dip in Vargas' or Santana's production from last year. If all three of those guys tail off we'll need monster years from both Mauer and Arcia just to maintain last years pace.

[Mike Sixel]

Why is it likely he won't progress? we have quotes from an umpire that he did progress last year? Why are people so sure he's not actually good at this, given the tiny sample size? Given how little the Twins appreciate advanced stats, are we sure they are even looking at the "right" things to judge his defense?

 

Let Pinto catch 40% of the time, and get some actual data on his defense at the MLB level. That should be the plan this year (should have been last year too...... but Gardy cared more about Suzuki's bonus than the long term good of the team, or so it appeared).

[Brandon]

Suzuki changed his swing to bring his average up.  so I suspect he will be able to hit in the .280 range with a bunch of doubles especially if he gets enough rest.  I think he slumped / tired down the stretch.  Still he hit over 30 2Bs last year.  Suzuki will be fine for 300-500 AB the next 2 years and will be worth the value of his contract. 

 

Pinto I hope shows enough to start 50-60 games at C.  It would be nice to see him get around 350 plate appearances with an OPS near .775

[Linus]

I would guess his job is very secure.  He's an experienced guy that the pitcher really like and he was / is not completely lost at the plate.  Given what is available in the marketplace for catching, the Twins are just fine with Suzuki at $6mil a year for two more years.

 

The great thing is that if Pinto blossoms or they make a trade, Kurt can easily adopt a back up role and still not be a huge salary anchor.

[Parker Hageman]

Suzuki's offensive demise seems vastly overblown. The changes he made to his swing increased his line drive rate significantly. Even as he hit .248/.290/.366 in his final 155 plate appearances after August 1st, he still had a high line drive rate. What is interesting is that his BB/K ratio went from 29/29 in April-July to 5/17 August-September. I would have to dig more to see if teams change their approach against him.

 

I posted this theory on the Hughes thread:

 

There really wasn't an explanation for the sudden drop in production in the second-half. If you look at his batted ball figures, he kept a line drive rate above 20% while having similar K%/BB% rates. I would have to dig in more to how pitchers approached him differently in the second-half but, at first blush, I wonder if he just wore down as the season progressed -- it was the 2nd most innings caught by a 30+ year old and Suzuki had caught 300 fewer innings.

 

 

If he did breakdown the last two months of the year, this would definitely support the idea of working Josmil Pinto into the lineup more frequently and giving Suzuki more time off. 

[nytwinsfan]

His BABIP dropped a lot in the last two months. It was .305, .310, .333, and .358 in April through July, respectively, and then .261 and .288 in August and September, respectively. Even though the latter two months are closer to his career BABIP, if line drives were driving his increased output last year, and they remained at the same level in the latter half of the season, as Parker says, that suggests some amount of bad luck was involved too.

 

 

Also, don't you mean his BB/K rate, not K/BB ratio?

 

Suzuki's offensive demise seems vastly overblown. The changes he made to his swing increased his line drive rate significantly. Even as he hit .248/.290/.366 in his final 155 plate appearances after August 1st, he still had a high line drive rate. What is interesting is that his K/BB ratio went from 29/29 in April-July to 5/17 August-September. I would have to dig more to see if teams change their approach against him.

 

I posted this theory on the Hughes thread:

 

 

 

If he did breakdown the last two months of the year, this would definitely support the idea of working Josmil Pinto into the lineup more frequently and giving Suzuki more time off. 

[nicksaviking]

I find it somehwat specious to say Pinto can't play defense ..... we just haven't seen him enough to know. This is the same team that thought Hardy couldn't play defense....

 

And that Michael Cuddyer was a super utility player.

[jimmer]

And that Michael Cuddyer was a super utility player.

that was very funny!

[Platoon]

I don't know about other years, or other pitchers, but pitch framing statistics when catching Samuel Deduno might be one of the most overrated metrics of all time. It's just another mystifying case of Gardy's mentality. You put your "worst" catcher in to catch your hardest to catch pitcher. And you put your "best" catcher in to sit in a rocking chair, catching the guy who has the lowest walk rate in MLB history. Perhaps that's why my driver training school for NASCAR drivers is off to such a slow start?

[Mike Sixel]

Don't want to derail.....but there is another good article about framing on Fangraphs today.....

[kellyvance]

I can hear you now, in the winter of 1961-62.  Yeah, well Roger Maris hit 61 homes, but that is just not sustainable.

 

Good years are good years and Suze had an all star year. I say he has earned the benefit of the doubt.. 

[nicksaviking]

I can hear you now, in the winter of 1961-62.  Yeah, well Roger Maris hit 61 homes, but that is just not sustainable.

 

Good years are good years and Suze had an all star year. I say he has earned the benefit of the doubt.. 

 

Honorable, but paying players for what they did yesterday instead of paying players for what you think they will do tomorrow is how teams start giving out $100 million deals to 35-year-old pitchers.  It's bad business sense.

[jimmer]

Honorable, but paying players for what they did yesterday instead of paying players for what you think they will do tomorrow is how teams start giving out $100 million deals to 35-year-old pitchers.  It's bad business sense.

And to continue on with that, I'm not sure how good of an idea it is to just figure that a guy who had his best OPS+ at age 30 is going to continue to do that well, but some people like to believe that a player's last season, even if it's a career season, is the best predictor of his next season no matter how much history he has to the contrary. I've never found that to be very true, but I'm sure it's worked out before. It can be a comfy blanket of an idea as we find ourselves extending/signing players like that though.

Edited January 14, 2015 by jimmer

[Thrylos]

I'd rather see Pinto get a chance to be the starter because he as more potential than Suzuki and to improve as an MLB catcher you have to (well...) catch MLB pitchers. And he and Suzuki are not that far away with the glove (and Pinto has a better bat.) Mike Piaza and Brian Harper were not even close to being gold glove catchers, but they were cornerstones for their teams.

That said, Suzuki has been in the league a long time, but is not that old. He is a year younger than Mauer...