Article: Arbitrary Predictions

[Seth Stohs]

On Tuesday around Major League Baseball salary arbitration cases will be filed. On Friday, teams and players will exchange numbers. However, don’t be surprised if many of the arbitration-eligible players agree to terms before Friday. Six Twins players were offered arbitration last month, so here is a quick look at what to expect over the next few days.When it comes to arbitration, there are ways to guess and predict where the values will come in. It is based on career numbers to that point, but there can also be some attention placed on most recent performance. It will be interesting to see if baseball's increased revenues will have any impact on the arbitration decisions. Will players get a 10% bump over historical data just because of the revenues?

 

When we hear that the team and the player file arbitration numbers, a lot of thought and statistical analysis goes into those numbers. The team can’t just lowball the player because it makes reaching an agreement less likely, and it makes it more likely that an arbiter would rule for the player. The same goes the other way. A player can’t just put a $10 million filing number out there if he’s likely worth $2 million because there’s no way the judge would rule for the player. It’s a tough slope.

 

Here are my thoughts or projections for the week. Get your predictions into the comments section below and we'll see what happens over the next four days.

 

TREVOR PLOUFFE – 2^nd Year of Arbitration

The third baseman had a very good 2014 season. He made $2.35 million in his first year of arbitration and should nearly double that amount. Should it get to Friday, I would expect Plouffe to ask for around $5.2 million while the Twins would likely counter around $4.5 million. In the end, the midpoint would be about $4.85 million. Plouffe could be a candidate for an extension, either four or five years, or maybe a shorter-term deal like two years.

 

BRIAN DUENSING – 3^rd Year of Arbitration

Duensing is in his third and final year of arbitration. He received $2 million in 2014. I think that the Twins will offer him a raise to around $2.3 million while Duensing’s representation will likely counter with a number around $2.9 million. In the end, I can see them settling near the midpoint at about $2.6 million.

 

JORDAN SCHAFER – 2^nd Year of Arbitration

A year ago, the Braves paid Schafer $1.09 million to be an extra outfielder on their roster. He rarely played more than just as a pinch runner and didn’t hit in his limited opportunity. After the Twins traded Sam Fuld and Schafer was DFA'd by the Braves, it only made sense for the Twins to give an opportunity to the former top prospect. He played well the final couple of months for the Twins. He will likely get a small raise. I think his representatives will ask for $1.6 million. I can see the Twins offering $1.2 million. I can see the two sides getting creative. I can see them agreeing to a deal for about $1.3 million with several incentives based on playing time. In other words, if he ends up being the starter, he could make up to $200K more. If not, the midpoint is at $1.4 million.

 

TOMMY MILONE – 1^st Year of Arbitration

Milone presents an interesting case. A look at his statistics say that he should make some serious money. Had he been in the A’s rotation all season, he could be looking at a $4 million payday. But instead, the A’s demoted him, warranted or not, and when he was traded to the Twins for Fuld, he remained in the minors for about a week. Once with the Twins, he was hurt and didn’t get a chance to increase his value. It’s also interesting because his 2015 role is uncertain. He could be the fifth starter. He could be a long reliever. He still has an option remaining. This is another situation where there could be some creativity. I can see Milone’s side filing a $3 million number while the Twins should file closer to $2.2 million. That puts the midpoint at $2.6 million. Could they reach an agreement for about $2.4 million with incentives for $200K for each ten-start interval?

 

CASEY FIEN – 1^st Year of Arbitration

Fien had a fine 2014 season. He was one of the better set-up men until a rough September which made his numbers look not as impressive. He achieved Super-2 status this year so he could have four years of arbitration. There are a lot of relief pitchers each year who reach arbitration every year and the range of their contracts is all over the board, so it’s difficult to guess where he could fall in. I think that the high end would be about $2.2 million, so I would think that the Fien side would ask for about that amount. The Twins should counter north of $1.6 million because if it does go to arbitration, it’d be hard to imagine an arbiter siding with a number less than that. I think that the Twins would counter around $1.8 million. At the end of the day, the midpoint is $2 million and that feels about right.

 

EDUARDO NUNEZ – 1^st Year of Arbitration

There are always several utility infielders who get to arbitration for the first time each year. The range for first year arbitration utility infielders is anywhere from about $750K to $1.4 million. I think that the Nunez camp will likely ask for around $1.2 million. I could see the Twins countering at about $800K. I think there could be an agreement just shy of the $1 million mark.

 

 

As you can see, there is a range for where these six arbitration figures can put the Twins payroll. Be sure to check out Jeremy Nygaard’s Rosters & Payroll to keep updated on the Twins payroll.

 

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[nater79a]

I have a feeling that Milone could be the sticky wicket out of these six. Like Seth said, career numbers vs recent performance.

 

Milone's camp will say " Look what we did the past three years: a sub 4.00 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP". Twins will counter with "You struggled down the stretch last season. And we don't really want to pay a $3 million salary for someone that may end up in the bullpen".  

 

Should be interesting. 

 

By the way, between Milone, Pelfrey and Duensing, the Twins could be paying around $11 million for three middle relievers this season. Seems a little pricey.

[KGB]

Are arbitration contracts guaranteed?  I thought I heard you could still cut players and pay out 1/6 of the reward during spring training.

 

If they are not guaranteed, the Twins would be better off letting Milone and Duensing go through arbitration process so they have the option to cut them if spring training gives them better options and nobody is taking them in a trade.

[diehardtwinsfan]

at this point, I think they are guaranteed. They would have had to been not offered arb (i.e non-tendered) if they didn't want to pay him.

[ken]

Are arbitration contracts guaranteed?  I thought I heard you could still cut players and pay out 1/6 of the reward during spring training.

 

If they are not guaranteed, the Twins would be better off letting Milone and Duensing go through arbitration process so they have the option to cut them if spring training gives them better options and nobody is taking them in a trade.

 

They are not guarenteed:

 

Win or lose, the player is awarded a standard one-year MLB contract with no "minor league split" salary or incentive/performance bonuses. Also, the contract is not guaranteed, so if the player is released during Spring Training, the club would only owe the player 30 days or 45 days salary as termination pay, depending on when the player is released. (A player on an MLB 40-man roster receives 100% of what remains of his salary if he is released during the regular season).

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3515

 

So they do have some options.

[DuluthFan]

Duensing and Milone will not be cut.

 

Duensing is a veteran left handed pitcher who can become a free agent at the end of the year. He will be kept since he could be a trade asset at the deadline.

 

Milone is a starting pitcher with options remaining. He can be sent to AAA for depth. If an injury occurs at the major league level it would be beneficial to have a major league ready/experienced backup that can be called up. He can also be used in a trade later in the season.

[KGB]

Duensing and Milone will not be cut.

 

Duensing is a veteran left handed pitcher who can become a free agent at the end of the year. He will be kept since he could be a trade asset at the deadline.

 

Milone is a starting pitcher with options remaining. He can be sent to AAA for depth. If an injury occurs at the major league level it would be beneficial to have a major league ready/experienced backup that can be called up. He can also be used in a trade later in the season.

 

Thanks Ken

 

I tend to agree that they will not be cut, but on trade value remember Milone was picked up by the Twins for a player put through waivers a few months before and that was before his less than impressive Twins performance. And if Duensing had any trade value, you have to think it would have been more the last 2 years and I wonder why a 90 loss team would keep a 60 inning pitcher if he had a lot of trade value.

 

I hope they are not going keep players like Milone, Duensing or Pelfrey because they think they will have trade value.

[Brandon]

They will keep players like Millone, Pelfry and Deunsing for depth.  They are very good 1th and 12th and 13th type pitchers to have on the staff. 

[Paul Pleiss]

Is it too late to cut Eduardo Nunez?

 

I understand that a below average utility player who can't keep a helmet on is probably worth somewhere just below a million dollars to a ball club, but I don't see any real use in spending that million on Eduardo Nunez... he doesn't fit on the roster in any meaningful way.

 

Is he just utility man insurance incase Danny Santana can't handle SS (or has to play CF) and Eduardo Escobar is called into everyday service at SS?

 

I'm anti-Nunez. And I don't care who knows it.

[KGB]

Is it too late to cut Eduardo Nunez?

 

I understand that a below average utility player who can't keep a helmet on is probably worth somewhere just below a million dollars to a ball club, but I don't see any real use in spending that million on Eduardo Nunez... he doesn't fit on the roster in any meaningful way.

 

Is he just utility man insurance incase Danny Santana can't handle SS (or has to play CF) and Eduardo Escobar is called into everyday service at SS?

 

I'm anti-Nunez. And I don't care who knows it.

 

No and as long as they go through arbitation and cut him during spring training, it only cost 30 days of the season salary.

 

He really not much of a utility player - he plays a lot of position, but none of them well.

[Seth Stohs]

The deadline for agreeing to terms before exchanging numbers is noon today. Check back here to find out what players agreed to.

 

Any last minute predictions?

[jimmer]

Must admit, when I read the title of this thread, I was expecting something completely different. Something like, 'I predict Vargas to slug over .500 on days that start with the letter T' or something like that :-)

[gil4]

Must admit, when I read the title of this thread, I was expecting something completely different. Something like, 'I predict Vargas to slug over .500 on days that start with the letter T' or something like that :-)

 

If he does it on days that end in "y" I'll be much more impressed,