Brian Dozier Extension

[laloesch]

Over at the Phil Hughes extension thread, there's a lot of talk about extending some other players on the current ballclub, most notably Brian Dozier.

 

Personally, I don't think I've seen enough consistency to make a long-term contract offer to Dozier, I think the Twins would be taking all of the risk without a likely high return on a guy who is already under team control for several more years so how much free agency would a deal be buying out?

 

Does it hurt the Twins significantly in annual average value for a long term contract for Dozier if they wait until the end of 2015 to see if the Superman of the first half of 2014 or the Clark Kent of the 2nd half is more likely the true talent?

 

I don't risk it, not now. What's the upside to locking him up now?

 

I wouldn't lock him up now either.  Even before the Santana and Hughes contracts there were people here barking for Dozier and Plouffe extensions.  I ask the question, why?

 

Dozier's defense is good and the HR power and OBP are nice but he's been inconsistent.  I'd like to see a higher BA and more consistency throughout the year, before giving him an extension.

[Brock Beauchamp]

They didn't, but pitchers aren't stupid.  Eventually, they're going to stop nibbling at the corners against a guy who doesn't beat you with power or average.

You continue to equate power with home runs while ignoring that Dozier hit nearly the same amount of doubles in the second half as he did in the first half, only he did it in 150 fewer PAs.

 

Homers aren't the only kind of power. Yeah, they're better than doubles but doubles count, too. Dozier's second half slugging percentage (.387) was still respectable for a middle infielder.

 

And pitchers don't walk guys intentionally (unless they're walking them intentionally). Taking a base on balls is a hitting skill while avoiding the BB is a pitching skill. Dozier won't suddenly stop walking because he's not hitting home runs. His walks come from plate discipline and pitch recognition; they're not a gift from pitchers who are scared of him.

 

After all, Jamey Carroll had a career OBP .075 higher than his BA and hit a whopping 13 HR in his career. If plate discipline isn't a hitting skill, his OBP should have been .0075 higher, not .075. There wasn't a pitcher in MLB who was frightened by the imposing stance of the 5'11", 180 lb, no power Jamey Carroll.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I have trouble putting .242 career average and quality hitter in the same sentence unless we're talking about a consistent 30-40 home run guy.  I'm not seeing it.

There is so much more to offense than batting average.

 

Would you rather have Brian Dozier or Ben Revere at the plate every ninth AB? After all, Ben's career BA is 50 points higher than Brian's.

[kab21]

If we did not sign Hunter v1, Santana v1, or a few of the other upper echelon FA, why would we extend a Dozier level player this early. While the revenue from Target has increased the budget, everything is relative and the outlays have also increased. I like Dozier's personality, his effort, and his hair. But he is replaceable, probably in house in the near future. One other reason for not extending him, is it removes any flexibility on roster moves at that position. While there is not a league rule against trading players with fresh contracts, this FO seems to think there is.

Actually the Twins did extend Hunter v1 and Santana v1.  They bought arbitration years and a couple of years of FA.  And I'm not sure it would have been a good argument even if it was true since not extending them earlier (a second time) kind of came back to bite them.

 

I'm rather indifferent to extending Dozier right now.  Hughes was 2 years away from FA and that is the time that you have to get something done if you are going to get a discount.  Dozier is still 4 years away from FA.

 

People need to adjust their hitting expectations in the post steroid era.  Dozier is a quality bat especially since he plays MI with acceptable defense.  In addition to that these splits are WAY over analyzed.  He posted almost identical K rates and BB rates and still managed a very good .143 isoP in the 2nd half.  A .143 isoP is not a power outage for a MI unless you are expecting him to be Hanley Ramirez.

[Brock Beauchamp]

People need to adjust their hitting expectations in the post steroid era.  Dozier is a quality bat especially since he plays MI with acceptable defense.  In addition to that these splits are WAY over analyzed.  He posted almost identical K rates and BB rates and still managed a very good .143 isoP in the 2nd half.  A .143 isoP is not a power outage for a MI unless you are expecting him to be Hanley Ramirez.

Indeed. This is what I find important about Dozier's second half:

 

1. BA was similar

2. K rate was similar

3. BB rate was similar

4. XBH per AB was similar, though they shifted from HR to 2B

5. LD/GB/FB rate was similar

 

That's a consistent player and one that doesn't look to regress because the results weren't abnormal compared to what he's been doing for over 1100 consecutive plate appearances.

 

That doesn't mean I believe Dozier needs to be extended but the continued questioning of his ability makes no sense. We have a pretty good idea who Brian Dozier is at this point. He's a slick fielding 2B who will post an OPS around .730-.770 and swipes a few bags.

[Mike Sixel]

People here are very risk averse with extensions.......if you wait, it costs more (and you are tying him up further into his decline phase, probably). I guess I'd extend him, but don't feel it HAS to be done. 

 

And, extending him makes him more valuable in a trade, not less, because of the cost certainty and the locked in nature (assuming he's good).

[TheLeviathan]

I would argue people are way too extension happy.  Dozier is four years from being a FA.  Four years.  

 

I'll say it again:  four....years.  What is the damn rush to toss money at players?  At this point someone better start a thread about giving Kohl Stewart a 12 years/100M dollar deal just to make sure we save a bunch of money in 2025.  Slow down people, lots of time to make a decision on Dozier.

[tobi0040]

How about nearly 70 extra base hits, 89 walks, and 20 stolen bases.  The average is a little low but let's not let that alone define  him as a hitter.  He was 3rd in the MLB for 2nd basemen in offensive WAR last year even with that .242 average.  He was a quality player at the plate last year, especially for the position he plays.

 

Yeah, a 2B with 9 WAR over the last two years, dismissed because of the single stat.  This is a very early 90's argument. 

 

The 114 OPS plus tells me he was 14% better than a league average hitter.  Which is really, really good for a premium position.

 

Maybe the Twins give him another 3 months or so, but I think he is a good piece on a contending team and I think it is a good sign when players are paid when they excel.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would argue people are way too extension happy.  Dozier is four years from being a FA.  Four years.  

 

I'll say it again:  four....years.  What is the damn rush to toss money at players?  At this point someone better start a thread about giving Kohl Stewart a 12 years/100M dollar deal just to make sure we save a bunch of money in 2025.  Slow down people, lots of time to make a decision on Dozier.

And that's why I'm neutral on an extension. Dozier isn't the type of guy you fall over yourself locking up out of fear that he'll become a $30m a year player in free agency.

 

On the other hand, the Twins might save a few bucks extending him now... But personally, I'd give it one more year and reevaluate.

[tobi0040]

And that's why I'm neutral on an extension. Dozier isn't the type of guy you fall over yourself locking up out of fear that he'll become a $30m a year player in free agency.

 

On the other hand, the Twins might save a few bucks extending him now... But personally, I'd give it one more year and reevaluate.

 

If we are convinced he is a cornerstone player (I am), I would look to giving him a deal that pays him an extra million this year, maybe another $500-750K a year during arb-years, in exchange for a buyout of 2-3 FA years in the form of options in the 8-10M range per year.

 

I think that would provide the Twins some leverage and get an all-star caliber 2B from 28-33 for under $50M.  And four years from now, successive 8M 9M and 10M years may look like an absolute steal.

[TheLeviathan]

If we are convinced he is a cornerstone player (I am), I would look to giving him a deal that pays him an extra million this year, maybe another $500-750K a year during arb-years, in exchange for a buyout of 2-3 FA years in the form of options in the 8-10M range per year.

 

I think that would provide the Twins some leverage and get an all-star caliber 2B from 28-33 for under $50M.  And four years from now, successive 8M 9M and 10M years may look like an absolute steal.

 

I think Miguel Sano is going to be a beast too.....but I'm not going to hand him tens of millions more now when I don't have to.  It's just so unnecesary to extend him right now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If we are convinced he is a cornerstone player (I am), I would look to giving him a deal that pays him an extra million this year, maybe another $500-750K a year during arb-years, in exchange for a buyout of 2-3 FA years in the form of options in the 8-10M range per year.

 

I think that would provide the Twins some leverage and get an all-star caliber 2B from 28-33 for under $50M.  And four years from now, successive 8M 9M and 10M years may look like an absolute steal.

Oh, I get the reasoning, I just tend to skew on the conservative side... For example, I wouldn't have given Hughes an extension this offseason, either. I don't think it's necessarily a bad move, nor is it one I objected to, I just believe in waiting it out a bit. It will cost you more money on occasion but it also prevents Joe Mays type contracts (not a great comparison, as both Hughes and Dozier are better players than Mays).

[tobi0040]

I think Miguel Sano is going to be a beast too.....but I'm not going to hand him tens of millions more now when I don't have to.  It's just so unnecesary to extend him right now.

 

For me the disagreement is whether or not there is value in an extension now.  Jed Lowrie, a 30 year old that will likely play 2B signed a 3 year, $23 million dollar deal.  In 2015-2017 dollars.  HIs career OPS is about the same as Dozier's over the last two years.  However, he had a monster 2010 that really skews his numbers. I think Dozier is a better offensive player.  Dozier is clearly a better defensive player and gets about 15-20 more SB's a year to boot.

 

If we extended Dozier now, we could probably get somewhere near three free agent years, in 2019-2021 dollars at about the same price as Lowrie will get in 2015-2017. 

 

I think that is value.  Do we need to?  No.  But the price will go up from here.  The difference between making $500K and $2M next year is pretty large......that is a much bigger difference than the difference between $2M and $3.5M the next year. 

[Mike Sixel]

don't forget, salaries are skyrocketing every year.......just inflation alone might be covered by an extension.

[TheLeviathan]

I think that is value.  Do we need to?  No.  But the price will go up from here.  The difference between making $500K and $2M next year is pretty large......that is a much bigger difference than the difference between $2M and $3.5M the next year. 

 

So will the price for Oswaldo Arcia, Miguel Sano, Brian Buxton, etc.  At some point you need to let the process work itself out and pay the price when it makes the most sense.  Right now it makes absolutely no sense.

[Willihammer]

It seems to me that in today's game, teams that wait for a player to cement himself as a talented player face paying a price close to the FA rate and also need to buy out years they might rather not have under contract anyway. The second Pedroia extension, for example. The real savings seem to be in extensions signed before a player has 100% case closed established himself, eg. Longoria, Vogelson, Pedroia (the first extension)). Dozier is about at that point, I think, so this would be the offseason to do it, if at all, IMO.

[TheLeviathan]

We always talk about these things in the best case scenario, but the truth is that these kinds of extensions are extremely rare for a reason: they have a ton of risk.  Brian Dozier could easily turn into Trevor Cahill as much as he could Pedroia.  

 

When there isn't a gun to your head to act, acting anyway with that much risk seems really silly.

[Willihammer]

We always talk about these things in the best case scenario, but the truth is that these kinds of extensions are extremely rare for a reason: they have a ton of risk.  Brian Dozier could easily turn into Trevor Cahill as much as he could Pedroia.  

 

When there isn't a gun to your head to act, acting anyway with that much risk seems really silly.

I can't think of an extension signed early that has haunted anyone, actually. In fact, the Singleton extension is the only one I'm aware of that might not break in the team's favor, and its still very early on that and the total risk is just 10m (truly more like 8m).

 

OTOH I can think of quite a few where extensions signed late that are looking to be a lot more favorable for the player.

[TheLeviathan]

I can't think of an extension signed early that has haunted anyone, actually. In fact, the Singleton extension is the only one I'm aware of that might not break in the team's favor, and its still very early on that and the total risk is just 10m (truly more like 8m).

 

OTOH I can think of quite a few where extensions signed late that are looking to be a lot more favorable for the player.

 

How often have they happened?  Longoria?  Braun?  Pedroia? 

 

Dozier doesn't belong in that conversation, he's closer to the Span, Blackburn, Cahill, etc. type of player and that seems to have mixed results.

[jorgenswest]

Dan Uggla started his career at 26. He had a career OPS+ of 110 through age 27. The Marlins took him to arbitration for the age 29 season. They avoided arbitration and agreed on a 1 year contract for his age 30 season. After the age 30 season they traded him to the Braves and let them pay for the decline.

 

Uggla's OPS+ 26-30  

 

112, 108, 126, 111, 131

 

OPS+ 31-34

 

107, 98, 85, 26

 

Why shouldn't the Twins do something similar? Keep him to his age 30 season and pay his first two years of arbitration and then trade him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Dan Uggla started his career at 26. He had a career OPS+ of 110 through age 27. He was a better player than Dozier through 27 and had more space for decline. The Marlins took him to arbitration. They avoided arbitration and agreed on a 1 year contract for his age 30 season. After they age 30 they traded him to the Braves and let them pay for the decline.

 

Uggla's OPS+ 26-30112, 108, 126, 111, 131

A good comp. Of course, Uggla was a butcher with the glove so Dozier projects to retain some defensive value as he ages but the point is a good one.

[tobi0040]

So will the price for Oswaldo Arcia, Miguel Sano, Brian Buxton, etc.  At some point you need to let the process work itself out and pay the price when it makes the most sense.  Right now it makes absolutely no sense.

 

Dozier and those guys are apples to oranges.  Arcia is a career .574 OPS against lefties.  He could be a platoon player.   Those other guys have not seen the big's and missed last year due to injury.

[tobi0040]

A good comp. Of course, Uggla was a butcher with the glove so Dozier projects to retain some defensive value as he ages but the point is a good one.

 

The counter argument is a guy that goes to free agency and is too expensive and leaves, or traded with no leverage.  Each approach has risks.

[TheLeviathan]

The counter argument is a guy that goes to free agency and is too expensive and leaves, or traded with no leverage.  Each approach has risks.

 

We are four years away from that scenario, so that risk is minimal and quite far off in the distance.  While still under arbitration Dozier will retain high trade leverage as long as he's still producing.  

 

Trying to an extension now significantly increases the risk of the extension. Hence my point about the young kids as well - of course it'd be silly to extend them.  But Dozier is closer to being that kind of extension than Phil Hughes.

[tobi0040]

We are four years away from that scenario, so that risk is minimal and quite far off in the distance.  While still under arbitration Dozier will retain high trade leverage as long as he's still producing.  

 

Trying to an extension now significantly increases the risk of the extension. Hence my point about the young kids as well - of course it'd be silly to extend them.  But Dozier is closer to being that kind of extension than Phil Hughes.

 

I guess for me, there are risks to both approaches.  I have acknowledged that. I have been clear about which i would do.

 

What I don't get is the lack of acklowledgement that good could come out of extending him.  We could get a better price on Dozier.  No?

[TheLeviathan]

I guess for me, there are risks to both approaches.  I have acknowledged that. I have been clear about which i would do.

 

What I don't get is the lack of acklowledgement that good could come out of extending him.  We could get a better price on Dozier.  No?

 

Only if everything goes right....yes.  If Dozier keeps producing, if his skill set keeps him as a good player into his mid-30s, and he doesn't get hurt.  Yes, then it would work out.

 

Why, however, with all those ifs and the paltry gain of a few handfuls of cash this team is swimming in anyway....would you take the risk that everything has to go right when you still have four years to make that decision and see how things play out?

[nater79a]

I say wait to see what Dozier and Jorge Polanco do this year. There'll be more clarity next offseason.

[Willihammer]

Dan Uggla started his career at 26. He had a career OPS+ of 110 through age 27. The Marlins took him to arbitration for the age 29 season. They avoided arbitration and agreed on a 1 year contract for his age 30 season. After the age 30 season they traded him to the Braves and let them pay for the decline.

 

Uggla's OPS+ 26-30  

 

112, 108, 126, 111, 131

 

OPS+ 31-34

 

107, 98, 85, 26

 

Why shouldn't the Twins do something similar? Keep him to his age 30 season and pay his first two years of arbitration and then trade him.

If the plan is to move Dozier to a mid- or big- market team, than this may be the best route. Personally I was replying to the idea of "wait a year then consider an extension," which I think would all but defeat the point. The only upside to that route is if Dozier craters in Joe Mays like fashion next season then you're off the hook. But I think its more likely that Dozier is a good player again in 2015.

 

You could structure an extension any number of ways, I think the one Seth offered is on the high side. If I were ownership I'd think about a 4 year extension with a team option for his first FA season. I don't think that would make Dozier much less tradeable and actually could make him more attractive if you're trying to partner with a small market team where arb raises impact payroll more than they do for the Twins.

[Brandon]

I think a Dozier extension makes sense if the price is right.  I think Dozier will age better than Uggla as he is also faster than Uggla.  Dozier may loose his power in his early 30's but he'll be a good defender till he gets closer to mid 30's.  A 4 year extension with 1 or 2 option years makes sense if we get a good value on the extension.  Gyorko, Carpenter signed for 6 years and 50-55 million and I think there is another 2b was it Kipnis? or Walker with Pirates?  They were comps thrown around for Dozier earlier.  So if he signs a 23 million extension then I am all for it.  The extension would need to allow for regression so what would a second baseman hitting with a .720-.730 OPS make the next 4 years as opposed to what would a second baseman who hits at .750-.760 or so OPS. 

[tobi0040]

Only if everything goes right....yes. If Dozier keeps producing, if his skill set keeps him as a good player into his mid-30s, and he doesn't get hurt. Yes, then it would work out.

 

Why, however, with all those ifs and the paltry gain of a few handfuls of cash this team is swimming in anyway....would you take the risk that everything has to go right when you still have four years to make that decision and see how things play out?

I do see another scenario though, which has a time-frame of only 1.5 to 2 years (less risk of healh issues and he does not need to produce as long).

 

Under this scenario, we have Dozier to a team friendly deal with options buying out his first 2-3 FA years. Polanco is at AAA doing well. Under that scenario Dozier has a lot more trade value in my eyes than he would if he was a free agent in just two years (versus controllable another four)

 

I think the downside could be the opposite as well....only if everything goes wrong. I think Dozier has to regress a ton at the plate to not be at least an average 2B.