Article: Where Are We Now, Where Are We Going?

[Seth Stohs]

On Monday, the Minnesota Twins locked up starter Phil Hughes through the 2019 season with a three-year contract extension. As the New Year approaches, it is interesting to look at where the Twins are by position for 2015 and the future. Let’s take a quick look.FOR STARTERS, THE STARTERS

 

Let’s start with the starting pitching as that is obviously where the Twins have spent the most money and where they have the biggest need for improvement. These first three are locked up for at least the next three seasons.

 

Hughes was one of baseball’s best starting pitchers in 2014. Terry Ryan not only spoke on Monday of his work on the mound, but he likes his youth and his makeup as well. Enough to essentially tear up the two years and $16 million he had left on his contract and give him a new five year, $58 million contract. While those are big numbers, the 28-year-old could have made much more than that had he been a free agent this offseason.

 

Less than two weeks ago, the Twins signed Ervin Santana to a four year deal that includes an option for 2019. He just turned 32, but he has been solid MLB pitcher for a decade, many of those years in the American League.

 

Last offseason, the Twins made a huge splash in free agency with the acquisition of free agent starter Ricky Nolasco. He had a rough 2014 season, but he has enough of a track record to believe that he will be better in 2015. The Twins and their fans hope so as he is signed through the 2017 season with an option for 2018.

Mike Pelfrey is also back for 2015, though he may be best suited for the bullpen at this point. Tommy Milone is first-year arbitration-eligible this year and could make up to $2.8 million.

 

The others on this list will be under team control for at least the next five years. Kyle Gibson had a decent first full season in the big leagues and looks to improve under the tutelage of new pitching coach Neil Allen. Trevor May had some control problems in his MLB debut late last year, but he overcame that and was much better. Alex Meyer and Jason Wheeler are starters who were added to the Twins 40-man roster last month and could get an opportunity in 2015 and beyond. JO Berrios had a breakout season in the minor leagues. Meanwhile, Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey will come to big league camp this year too, looking to make a good impression after their strong 2014 seasons.

 

SUMMARY: Hughes was ace-like in 2014. Hopefully he can maintain some of that form and Santana and Nolasco will be able to earn their contracts the next few seasons. The success of the Twins in the future, however, will very much be dependent upon this next wave of internal, minor league options. At least a couple of them will need to advance to the Twins in the near future and show what they are made of. Then the next wave, which includes the likes of Kohl Stewart, Lewis Thorpe and Stephen Gonsalves can come in after that.

 

THE BULLPEN

 

Glen Perkins signed a contract extension last spring training that keeps him in Minnesota for the next three years, with an option for a fourth. He doesn’t want to go anywhere, and the terms of his contract make it bearable even if he isn’t the closer.

 

Brian Duensing’s in his final year of arbitration. Casey Fien is in his first. There are young guys like Caleb Thielbar, Ryan Pressly, Logan Darnell and Michael Tonkin who have seen big league time and could be part of the future. Meanwhile, the Twins have stockpiled many hard-throwers in the draft the last three years and some of those guys could surface in 2015. That list is headlined by 2014 2^nd round pick Nick Burdi, but it also includes Zack Jones, Jake Reed, JT Chargois (after missing two seasons, he was hitting 99 in instructs), Mason Melotakis (who will likely miss much of 2015 after Tommy John surgery), Todd Van Steensel and several others. Of course, minor league starters often become big league relievers and can be very successful in that role.

 

THE HITTERS

 

Let’s start behind the plate where Kurt Suzuki is locked up for the next two years, with a third-year option. I don’t know that I’d expect him to be an All-Star, but he is a solid backstop. Josmil Pinto may never be great behind the plate, but his bat should make him an option for the backup role.

 

In time, the favorite to be the next starting catcher for the Twins is likely Stuart Turner who spent 2014 in Ft. Myers. However, don’t think that Mitch Garver can’t eventually take that title and that job as well.

 

Joe Mauer is signed for four more years, through the 2018 season. He will be the team’s first baseman. Kennys Vargas, if needed, can play there as well though DH is his best role (same with Pinto).

 

Brian Dozier is under team control for another four seasons. One year away from arbitration, Dozier is a candidate for an extension this offseason or next. In a league with names like Cano, Pedroia, Zobrist, Kinsler and Altuve, Dozier was nearly an All-Star in 2014 and will hopefully continue to improve.

 

Trevor Plouffe put together his best season in 2014, both offensively and defensively. He enters his second (of four) arbitration season. He is an extension candidate, though there is the looming presence of Miguel Sano lurking, as it was last year. Sano missed the 2014 season after Tommy John surgery. He will need to shake off some rust in spring training and likely starting in AA, but if he can do that, the sky is the limit for him. Will he move Plouffe out of the hot corner, or could it be the Sano is the one to switch positions? That will be a fun story to follow in 2015.

 

Eduardo Escobar put up numbers, offensively and defensively, in 2014 that should give him the opening day shortstop job. However, that job at this point is being pushed toward Danny Santana, with Escobar likely in a utility role. Santana was terrific with the bat in 2014, his rookie season, and didn’t embarrass himself in center field, a position he had played about 20 times in the lower levels of the minor leagues. Jorge Polanco is also in the shortstop picture and should spend much of the 2015 season in Chattanooga. He also is an option at second base. Nick Gordon is just 19 and likely will spend the full season in Cedar Rapids.

 

Oswaldo Arcia is making room for Torii Hunter (who is on a one-year contract) by moving from right field to left field. That is going to be scary defensively. I’m still holding out hope that in spring training they’ll decide that Hunter should try left field and keep Arcia in right. Neither is really a good option for Twins pitchers. Fortunately, both have something in their bats. Hunter can fit in the lineup anywhere and be productive. Arcia, despite his struggles against left-handers and avoiding strikeouts, has so much power potential that it is scary. He could take off in 2015.

 

Center field remains the question. Aaron Hicks has been the opening day starter the last two years, and that hasn’t gone real well. That said, he plays solid defense and he has an ability to get on base at a good clip. Jordan Schafer appears a lock for the opening day roster, but will it be as the everyday centerfielder, in a platoon split with Hicks, or as the fourth outfielder? If Hicks begins the season in Rochester, minor league signee Shane Robinson has the ability to be a platoon option in centerfield. His game is similar to Schafer’s:speed and defense. Defense will be a key in center since there won’t be a lot of range in the corners. Of course, the possibility exists that Danny Santana could spend another season in center field with Escobar at shortstop.

Eddie Rosario had a tough 2014, but redeemed himself with a strong showing in the 7-week Arizona Fall League. He could start at AA or AAA. He’ll need to work on his plate discipline, but he may not be far off. Byron Buxton will be at big league camp again in 2015 after a lost 2014 season. It was one injury after another for one of baseball’s best prospects. Again, he will likely need to shake off some rust in Chattanooga to start the season, but a quick start could mean a quick promotion if he’s ready. Adam Walker, Max Kepler and Travis Harrison should all get to AA in 2015, each filled with promise.

 

The major league coaching staff will have a new look in 2015, and new minor league coaching assignments have been given as well. Seemingly, the only thing the Twins need to yet decide is who their new minor league hitting coordinator will be.

 

The holidays are upon us. We certainly want to thank all of the Twins Daily readers and commenters for a fun 2014 season on the site. Hopefully 2015 will bring us many more positive things to discuss on these pages.

 

The Twins Caravan is just three weeks away. Twins Fest is just a month from now. And then in mid-February, the players will start their treks down to Ft. Myers for spring training. It really isn’t that far away. We’ll all just try to stay warm in the Hot Stove a little longer!

 

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[70charger]

There's a lot to be optimistic about here. The outfield's still a bit of a mess, but it looks like the infield is a strength offensively and defensively, and I'm feeling so much better about the starting rotation. I also think there could be significant turnover in the bullpen starting this year, which looks like it's shaping up very well.

 

It's been a long few years. It's nice to see things beginning to come together.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

Question: Were Hunter's defensive numbers in 2013 as bad as his 2014 numbers? Also, could the fact that Comerica park has a huge right field, especially in the gap, play into his poor numbers at all? I remember reading in one of Parker's articles that Torii was horrible in some statistic that measured balls hit over 200 ft that were turned into outs. I wonder if that stat incorporates balls that end up going over the fence or if it discludes them altogether figuring that the fielderr never had a chance to turn it into an out. If that were the case it would mean that playing in a spacious right field would be a disadvantage because less balls would land over the fence where as if you're playing in Yankee Stadium balls that might hit the warning track or land in Detroit would go over the fence and not be included into the metric. Anyway maybe this is the wrong article to ask about this but I'm wondering if someone can shed light on these things I don't really know how to analyze the statistics or even where to find them. But these are things I'm wondering about if someone would like to indulge me. Thanks for the nice article I prefer overtly naïve optimism in the off-season personally. Go Twins, bring that AL Central title back home where it belongs!

[Dave T]

I see a lot coming together, but that outfield is still a freakin' mess.

[markos]

...Anyway maybe this is the wrong article to ask about this but I'm wondering if someone can shed light on these things I don't really know how to analyze the statistics or even where to find them. But these are things I'm wondering about if someone would like to indulge me. Thanks for the nice article I prefer overtly naïve optimism in the off-season personally. Go Twins, bring that AL Central title back home where it belongs!

 

I think the best place to start is to look at the spray charts on Fangraphs. It displays the position of all the plays both made and missed. By comparing two players side-by-side, it is easy to get a quick sense of their relative ranges and abilities. It's not perfect, but perhaps the best place to start.

 

Here is an example comparing 'Made Plays' by Torii Hunter and Jason Heyward:

http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=731&position=OF&type=fielding&pid2=4940&ss1=2014&se1=2014&ss2=2014&se2=2014&cht1=fielding_made&cht2=fielding_made&pos1=ALL&pos2=ALL

 

The more sophisticated statistics (like UZR or DRS) are hard to analyze since the specifics and data are all proprietary, and outsiders like us only get the final calculation. But here are some good explanations for their methodologies:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/drs/

 

Attempting to measure defensive ability and quantify its value is among the most (if not THE most) controversial topics in sabermetrics. You will find widely varying degrees faith in the metrics, both on this site and across the broader baseball community. That's why I think you should start with looking at spray charts. It isn't controversial to state that Heyward's dots cover a lot more area than Hunter's. It starts to get really hairy once someone tries to justify putting a value (5 runs! No, 15 runs! No, 40 runs!) on that difference.

[bird]

I just can't get all worked up about this "outfield mess". It was only a couple years ago that comments were coming in fast and furious about the Twin's inherent and chronic ineptitude when it came to drafting and developing middle infielders, and here in 2015 we might discover we have a surplus. I expect that, by 2016, we might be talking about the outfield in those same terms, and it may start earlier than that with strong performances from Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton out of the gates.

 

For 2015, I'm actually most worried about the catching position, as I'm not much of a fan of any of our guys behind the plate and wonder about Suzuki offensively going forward.

 

Longer term, my hunch is that the two most important factors regarding sustainable excellence will be the development of our young starters (duh) and our success with international signings in the next couple of years.

[Dantes929]

I agree the outfield mess is only temporary.   I believe Arcia will have a monster year at the plate to make up for his defensive deficiencies if he just continues to go with the pitch and stop swinging for the fences.   His  swing is just too sweet not to hit for power and average as long as he doesn't try to pull it all the time.    Hunter is only here for a year at most.   There are only three spots so when Buxton arrives it immediately makes them at least average.

[Dr. Evil]

IMHO bad starting pitching creates pressure on other areas of a team and magnifies any shortcomings that may exist. We should, in theory, be a little better in this area in 2015. I think Hughes and Santana give us a stable 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation and Gibson will become a bit more consistent than he was last year. At times, he was real sharp and showed some good things. If Nolasco or Milone(or both) can settle in and provide some reasonable contributions we should be in decent shape.

 

For this reason I see a bit of a trickle down effect with our outfield defense kicking out a little better results than last year and not being quite as much of a sore toe. They shouldn't be under quite as much pressure in 2015 if that makes sense.

 

I'm a little optimistic about 2015. We should be better and also it will be fun to see some of the guys that are close perhaps getting a look. Also, I am excited to see Molitor and the new staff in action. 

[Monkeypaws]

Having Hughes and Santana at the front of the rotation going forward looks good to me, better than what we've had in a good while. If they and Nolasco or Gibson can put in 200+ innings each, our bullpen would probably be better off as well. A slightly better Gibson would be huge: he did have a winning record at  13-12 and did throw almost 180 innings. 

[TheLeviathan]

Just saying...but it may help our developing young starters if we had guys that could field in the outfield. 

[HitInAPinch]

  I believe Arcia will have a monster year at the plate to make up for his defensive deficiencies if he just continues to go with the pitch and stop swinging for the fences.

I'm all in on Arcia, too.  Brunansky made some really good progress with Arcia last year.  All Arcia needs to do is just keep listening to Bruno.  Oh yeah, and suck it up a little bit on defense :-)

[HitInAPinch]

Does anyone else have a problem with moving Eduardo Escobar to the bench to accommodate Santana at SS?  With the lack of any other good option in CF, I don't really see a need or reason to make this move.

[bird]

Does anyone else have a problem with moving Eduardo Escobar to the bench to accommodate Santana at SS?  With the lack of any other good option in CF, I don't really see a need or reason to make this move.

We're in the minority, but I'd be inclined to leave Santana in CF until Buxton arrives and let Schaefer beat out Hicks for the 4th OF spot. If Rosario and Hicks light the world on fire in minor league play, great. Move Hunter aside.

[Willihammer]

I also have no problem with Santana logging more innings in the OF. He looked OK out there to me and while I'm not gungho about Escobar, I would prefer his bat to Schafer's or Hicks.' Molitor can always swap in a better defensive arrangement if the Twins manage to get a lead.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

I think the best place to start is to look at the spray charts on Fangraphs. It displays the position of all the plays both made and missed. By comparing two players side-by-side, it is easy to get a quick sense of their relative ranges and abilities. It's not perfect, but perhaps the best place to start.

Thanks man that's helpful.

[Seth Stohs]

I don't think it's 'fair' that Escobar isn't handed the starting shortstop job, but it is probably the right thing to do. Probably. That said, I wouldn't have any problem with them doing what you suggest.

[Paul Pleiss]

I just want the Twins to come out and tell me what the heck is going to happen to Alex Meyer in 2015. Bring him up to the big leagues and let him pitch, even if that means he has to coem out of the pen, it's time to take the kid gloves off this young man and let him see what he can do at the highest level. I'm tired of waiting. We're all tired ot waiting.

[Dantes929]

Hicks splits as a right hander against lefties and Schaefer's splits against righties make for a very good argument for a platoon in center with the non starter available for late inning, pinch hitting, pinch running or defense.   I am just fine with Santana out there also and to protect a lead the best defense would have all three of them out there with Escobar at short.

[gocgo]

I don't have very much confidence in our starting pitching because the numbers show that very few starting pitchers are successful after age 32.  Santana and Nolasco are both 32, so my expectations are low.

[troyhobbs]

Unless some of the young guys really take off this year, this is a roster chock full of mediocre players.  It's fun to think they might actually be ok this year, like maybe around .500, but I can see them being bad just as easily (probably not 90+ losses bad but...).  I'm excited to watch none the less.

[jorgenswest]

At SS they need to use the guy with the better glove. If it is Escobar, then Santana can fill a need in CF. If Santana, Escobar will get plenty of at bats in the utility role.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

We're in the minority, but I'd be inclined to leave Santana in CF until Buxton arrives and let Schaefer beat out Hicks for the 4th OF spot. If Rosario and Hicks light the world on fire in minor league play, great. Move Hunter aside.

i think this says more about Hicks than Santana. Though I 100% agree if Rosario/Hicks/Buxton manage to impress, let them take over.

[beckmt]

Twins look better on paper, but so does the division.  Still think Nolasco will be traded this year, better if he was to reestablish some value before, but still think he will be gone, does not seem to want to be here.  That would free up 2 rotation spots and for once the Twins have more candidates than spots, that is a wonderful start.    Long way to the end of spring training, so we shall see what moves take place.  Feel Santana will start at SS, but if he is still needed in CF it is not a big deal.  Improvement by Dozier and return to close to form by Mauer would help more.  We will find out this year if Arcia is the real deal, but lots more talent coming behind him. 

Looking forward to the year.  At least there is light at the end of the tunnel.

[Boom Boom]

With Arcia doing his Delmon Young impression in left and the skeletal remains of Torii Hunter in right, the Twins need a real outfielder in center.

 

I know that Santana didn't embarrass himself out there, but the standards need to be higher than that

[Major League Ready]

We have had consecutive 90 loss seasons.  That's where we are. Perhaps more importantly, we have a number of prospects that should be ready in the next 2 years.  I would hope where we are going is to build a contender and not sacrifice development for a few wins that might get us to 500.  For example, Santana has the most value if he reached his potential as a SS so let's get on with that determination. 

 

Let's get Rosario here.  I am not saying he needs to break camp but once he is ready are they going to sit Hunter in order to develop Rosario?  Let's hope we finally embrace rebuilding.

[Twodogs]

This doesnt look too bad for a starting lineup

 

SS Santana  .300 hitter

2B Dozier  .250 hitter some pop

1B Mauer  .300 hitter

LF/RF Arcia  20 Hrs

LF/RF Hunter  .280 hitter some pop

DH Vargas  Unknown but lots of power

3B Plouffe  .250 hitter with some pop

C Suzuki  .270 hitter

CF Hicks/Schaffer/Buxton (July) Rosario (July)  Not much of anything out of this group

 

Rotation

Hughes

Nolasco

Santana

Gibson

Milone/May/Meyers

 

Bullpen

Perkins

Fein

Meyers

Pelfrey

Theilbar

Stauffer

Duenseng

May/Milone, if Milone goes to BP then I'd gues Duenseng is gone

 

Bench

Schaffer

Escobar

Pinto

Nunez