Alex Meyer's Debut

[Paul Pleiss]

Barring injury does anyone out there think that Alex Meyer does not start the season with the Minnesota Twins?

 

I know he's no lock for a crowded rotation spot, but I feel like he's a guy that just MUST come north when the Twins break camp.

 

Anyone disagree?

[Boom Boom]

I don't disagree, but I bet that Terry Ryan does, and we won't see Meyer until June when his service clock has been pushed back.

[KGB]

I want Meyer's to start the season with the Twins, but I'm betting against it.  You usually have several off days and rain out in April, so the need for a 5th starter is limited.  The Twins are going to be paying Pelfrey and Milone and will want to build up there value for any possible trade.  So they will be given an opportunity to show that they can still pitch.

 

Meyer's has just begun his options to the minors and putting him in the bullpen to start the season would delay any chance for him to start since you would need to strech him out.  So as much as I hate it, I think he starts the season in AAA.

[big dog]

I think his best bet to start the season in the bigs IS an injury, but to someone else.  I think if the other starters are healthy they'll be up and he'll be starting at AAA.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Honestly, I'll be more disappointed if May is not with the Twins this spring. Meyer was walking way too many guys in AAA and needs to refine his control a bit. While I expect to see him in MN this year (baring injury), I really think the Twins should let May get first crack at that last spot.

[Blackjack]

Meyer will need to EARN his way onto the roster by the end of spring training. If hes lights out he'll come north, otherwise he gets sent to AAA.  I'm fine with that, barring a Meyer injury, or great performances and no injuries to the Twins five starters (what are the odds of that!!!) he'll be up in 2015.

[Lonestar]

Right now Meyer is 4th on their depth chart behind May, Milone, and Pelfrey in whatever order.  He would be second on my depth chart behind May who was a better pitcher last year.

 

I disagree that Meyer must come up with the Twins after spring training. I would delay his arrival at least until his free agency is delayed another year.  IIRC, that's only 2 or 3 weeks.

 

We all want wins.  Delaying Meyer's free agency 1 year maximizes the number of wins he will get in a Twins uniform.  Remember he is a Boras client.  Remember that the Twins are not expected to contend this year.

[HitInAPinch]

Question:  If Meyer gets promoted, what do the Twins do with all the veteran pitchers that they still owe a lot of money to?  More than anything, I think that would be his biggest obstacle.  He had some control and health issues again, so a start at AAA may be for the best.

[HitInAPinch]

Honestly, I'll be more disappointed if May is not with the Twins this spring. Meyer was walking way too many guys in AAA and needs to refine his control a bit. While I expect to see him in MN this year (baring injury), I really think the Twins should let May get first crack at that last spot.

 

If Neil Allen can teach May how to put some movement on his fastball, I think he can be special.

[nicksaviking]

I would really doubt he is in the Twins rotation to start the year, I doubt he will be in the bullpen either.  The Twins have three veteran rotation arms at the moment in Hughes, Nolasco and Santana.  For starting pitchers, they all are pretty durable, and all are expensive.  None of them will get benched due to performance.  Gibson has the other spot, he could get benched due to performance, as could the guy who wins the 5th spot; May should be the front runner for that considering that's where he ended the season. 

 

If anyone gets dinged up, I don't think Meyer will get called up, the random spot start isn't going to do him any good, he needs a home in the rotatoin when they finally decided to give him a chance.  My guess is we won't see Meyer until July. 

[markos]

A lot will depend on if the teams wants him as a starter or as a reliever. If they want to keep him as a starter, my guess is that Meyer starts the year in AAA regardless of how good he looks in spring training. My reasoning is that he was on a fairly short leash last year both in terms of innings and pitch count, and that the Twins will want him to prove that he can handle 6+ innings and 100+ pitches per start for significant period of time (say 6+ starts) before promoting him. 

 

However, it definitely seems like they are really trying to win this year, and with most of the rotation already filled, they may move him to the bullpen and have him start the season with the Twins. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The Torii and Ervin Santana signings were indications to me that the Twins were going to favor "experience" over potential again in 2015.  

 

Meyer will, barring injury, start games for the Twins this year, but I think it is very unlikely to happen in April.

 

If Nolasco gets demoted, one of Milone/Pelfrey is traded, and one of Milone/Pelfrey/May gets injured in the Spring, then Meyer is a starter out of Spring training.

 

As it stands now, the Twins have 4 starters May/Meyer/Milone/Pelfrey to compete for the #5 spot. I suppose it's possible that Nolasco could be added to the list and then there's a 5 player competition for 2 spots.

[Mike Sixel]

Unfortunately, the pitcher with the best stuff, who is 25, who they traded their only legit CF for, will be in AAA to start the season. And, for the third year, the Twins will get nothing out of that trade for at least 2 months. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I agree that he has the best stuff, but is he the 4th or 5th best starting pitcher on the roster? That is up for legitimate debate.

 

He hasn't had the chance yet to prove how good he can be at the major league level yet. Hopefully he gets his shot sooner than later. He should leapfrog Pelfrey and Milone by virtue of injury, performance, or trade.

 

He has better stuff than Trevor May, too, but I think that will be a tougher hurdle for Meyer.   

 

When the Twins traded for Meyer, they didn't have Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, or Ervin Santana yet - I think the equation has changed a bit for Meyer, but I think he's no less valuable or promising in the eyes of the Twins.  

[TheLeviathan]

Unfortunately, the pitcher with the best stuff, who is 25, who they traded their only legit CF for, will be in AAA to start the season. And, for the third year, the Twins will get nothing out of that trade for at least 2 months. 

 

2 months?  Feeling optimistic eh?

[nicksaviking]

 

He hasn't had the chance yet to prove how good he can be at the major league level yet. Hopefully he gets his shot sooner than later. He should leapfrog Pelfrey and Milone by virtue of injury, performance, or trade.

 

.  

 

He should be leap frogging those guys by virtue of ceiling. 

 

I think this team has hurt itself most by never going in full blown rebuild mode.  They got themselves a few extra wins a year by signing some vets, but the results just weren't worth it.  Signing Santana, Hunter and extending Hughes seems to signify to me that the team thinks it can restock instead of rebuild.  It seems counter-intuitive, but I think it just puts off the date when this team becomes a legit contender.  I think they'll be pretty decent this year, but nowhere near where they have to be to win the WS. 

 

I'll give them credit for spending some money instead of going all out destitute like the Astros, but I still think the long term health of the organization would have been better playing young guys and signing tradeable vets to short term deals.

[Lonestar]

Unfortunately, the pitcher with the best stuff, who is 25, who they traded their only legit CF for, will be in AAA to start the season. And, for the third year, the Twins will get nothing out of that trade for at least 2 months. 

He was not ready two years ago.  Some will say he was too inconsistent last year, especially in light of his innings limit. 

 

If he debuts in May, he will essentially be the same age Randy Johnson will be when he debuted.  Other than that, his age seems irrelevant.  I'm not worried about his age 33 season.  As a Boras client, he will be pitching for someone else.

 

It's not his fault the Twins haven't had (and still don't have) a back up plan for center field.

[Lonestar]

Question:  If Meyer gets promoted, what do the Twins do with all the veteran pitchers that they still owe a lot of money to?  More than anything, I think that would be his biggest obstacle.  He had some control and health issues again, so a start at AAA may be for the best.

It's interesting that Hughes (now signed thru 2019) has a very limited no-trade clause.  He is flippable.  Santana (signed thru 2018) is flippable.  Nolasco (signed thru 2017) either regains his value and is flippable or he is a sunk cost that you kick to the side, in which case the Twins will need cheap young pitching talent like Meyer, May, Berrios.

[Seth Stohs]

I'll guess about May 5th. 

[jokin]

It's interesting that Hughes (now signed thru 2019) has a very limited no-trade clause.  He is flippable.  Santana (signed thru 2018) is flippable.  Nolasco (signed thru 2017) either regains his value and is flippable or he is a sunk cost that you kick to the side, in which case the Twins will need cheap young pitching talent like Meyer, May, Berrios.

 

They may be flippable, but you have to have a willing :flipper" at the helm, the Twins don't have one of those.

[nicksaviking]

I'll guess about May 5th. 

 

Is that both the date to when we'll see Meyer and the rotation spot he'll take?

[James]

I think that he'll probably have a rotation spot before Pelfrey.  I honestly think they're going to tell Pelfrey to get ready to be in the bullpen, because that's where he's going to be.

 

I personally think May should get the 5th spot, but I wouldn't be surprised if they give it to Milone to start the season if he has a good spring.  Meyer will be up if he cuts down the walks or May and Milone lose their spots.  I think he's the first one called up after those two.  

[nicksaviking]

I think that he'll probably have a rotation spot before Pelfrey.  I honestly think they're going to tell Pelfrey to get ready to be in the bullpen, because that's where he's going to be.

 

I personally think May should get the 5th spot, but I wouldn't be surprised if they give it to Milone to start the season if he has a good spring.  Meyer will be up if he cuts down the walks or May and Milone lose their spots.  I think he's the first one called up after those two.  

 

Well that's the issue though, it's not an OR situation. It's not if he cuts down his walks OR May or Milone lose there spots.  Unless they go to a six man rotaion, somebody DOES have to lose their spot. 

 

Probably won't happen, but even if Meyer is lights out in AAA, if Gibson and the 5th guy in the rotation are merely adequate, Meyer will not come up.  This team isn't going to take a spot away from a guy unless he is clearly failing, even if it looks like the guy behind him is of greater value.

[jorgenswest]

He is too old to worry about service time. He has more than enough time in AAA. The best step in his development is the major leagues. He doesn't need to be lights out in spring training. He needs to be healthy and among the best 12.

[Lonestar]

He is too old to worry about service time. He has more than enough time in AAA. The best step in his development is the major leagues. He doesn't need to be lights out in spring training. He needs to be healthy and among the best 12.

What does his age have to do with service time considerations?

 

Would you rather have 6 years of team control or 6 years and 5 months? Especially when those 5 months are in a year when the Twins are still rebuilding.

 

He only has pitched 130.1 innings at AAA and it took him a full year to get those.  His BB/9 was 4.4.  If he is going to be a starting pitcher, it's not wrong to start his season in AAA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't disagree, but I bet that Terry Ryan does, and we won't see Meyer until June when his service clock has been pushed back.

I honestly don't think it is due to service time.  If a prospect is good enough, and healthy enough, the Twins haven't had much trouble getting them to the majors quickly (Mauer, Baker, Liriano, Garza, Slowey, Hendriks, etc.), even if many of those guys made return trips to the minors.

 

Right now, I would guess that they don't think Meyer is healthy enough yet.  That evaluation could change this spring, especially if they were willing to deploy him out of the bullpen initially.

[Lonestar]

They may be flippable, but you have to have a willing :flipper" at the helm, the Twins don't have one of those.

Ryan has missed some opportunities in the last few years, but he used to be known as Trade Terry.

 

On another thread, you said: "Gibson and Nolasco probably shouldn't put down any serious roots in the community."  Sounds like you expect Nolasco to be flipped.

 

I don't think Ryan will turn into Billy Beane and flip all three of Nolasco, Santana, and Hughes.  But I can see him making room for cheaper, home-grown talent.

[jokin]

Ryan has missed some opportunities in the last few years, but he used to be known as Trade Terry.

 

On another thread, you said: "Gibson and Nolasco probably shouldn't put down any serious roots in the community."  Sounds like you expect Nolasco to be flipped.

 

I don't think Ryan will turn into Billy Beane and flip all three of Nolasco, Santana, and Hughes.  But I can see him making room for cheaper, home-grown talent.

 

"Flipped" to me implies proactively going in a different direction and extracting some value in the process.  In Nolasco's case, another year like 2014, he'll end up more like dumped or exiled than flipped. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

You usually have several off days and rain out in April, so the need for a 5th starter is limited.

The 2015 Twins schedule includes a few off days in April, but it only really eliminates the "need" for a 5th starter for about 2 weeks -- they would need one before their third rotation turn is complete.  And that's only if you show a willingness to "skip" the 5th starter spot -- I would guess the Twins (and most clubs) usually stick to a strict 5-man rotation, barring injuries or other transactions.

 

With the 5th starter options we have, I would be surprised if we skipped that spot much.

[Lonestar]

"Flipped" to me implies proactively going in a different direction and extracting some value in the process.  In Nolasco's case, another year like 2014, he'll end up more like dumped or exiled than flipped. 

Your definition works for me. And if Nolasco pitches like 2014, I agree with the dumped or exiled.  If he pitches like 2013, I think he would be quite flippable.

 

So what are your thoughts on Gibson?