Article: Can Aaron Hicks Be Fixed?

[Parker Hageman]

One of the more critical openings the Minnesota Twins will have this year is in center field. If all goes well, that job will be Aaron Hicks’ to borrow. What are the odds that he meets expectations in 2015?The offseason did not start off well for Hicks: In November he was released from his Venezuelan winter ball team after hitting just .220/.381/.280 in 16 games. The explanation from his team was that he was released because of the poor production but there were rumblings from local media that the Venezuelan team was also upset with his attitude. Whatever the case might be between him and Bravos de Margarita, earlier in the offseason general manager Terry Ryan was emphatic that the Twins organization had no concerns over Hicks’ drive and makeup.

 

Meanwhile, during his introductory conference call with season ticket holders manager Paul Molitor reiterated his hopes that Hicks will be able to hold the center field job. That, of course, will depend on how much he can do with the stick. Since coming up to the Twins in 2013, Hicks has posted an OPS+ of 69 (heh) which is 79 out of 89 hitters who have played at least 25 games in center. Ahead of him? Sam Fuld (76), Jordan Schafer (82), Alex Presley (83) and Danny Santana (130). With the exception of Santana those other three players were readily available, making Hicks the epitome of a player below replacement-level.

 

It is a shame considering Hicks has the requisite tools necessary to be a solid contributor. All that is, except hitting. If the baseball saying goes " Hit and we’ll find a position for you" is true, the opposite is certainly valid for those who cannot hit.

 

There does not seem to be any reason to blame bad luck for the low offensive numbers, either. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s database, since 2013 Hicks’ hard-hit average has been at .115 -- well below the average of .155, and qualifies as 31 of 36 center fielders with 400 plate appearances. Because of this, it is easy to see why he wound up with the second lowest batting average on balls in play in that pool.

 

Part of what makes him so volatile at the plate is being a switch-hitter who has not found comfort at either side of the plate -- particularly from the left-hand side where he will find the bulk of his plate appearances. Ted Simmons, the former switch-hitting catcher who eventually became the San Diego Padres bench coach, offered this up to ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian about hitting from both sides: It’s difficult.

 

"Six percent of all players is a very small sample,'' Simmons told ESPN regarding having success when hitting from both sides. "And how many of that 6 percent are even capable of hitting .300? Now that 6 percent goes down to maybe 2 percent. So now we're talking about a very, very, very small sample. I also have yet to find a person that completely, totally, unequivocally has bilateral symmetry. One side is always dominant. People can't write right-handed and left-handed with the same physicality.”

 

Hicks shares Simmons’ sentiments on switch-hitting as well. Even before his decision to drop the left-handed swing in 2014, he knew the sinister swing was his weaker side.

 

“I play golf right-handed. I do everything right-handed,” Hicks told Alan Maimon and Chuck Myron in their book Hits and Misses in the Baseball Draft before the start of the 2012 season. “I think one of the main reasons I’m good at hitting baseball right-handed is because of the eye-hand coordination I developed playing golf. I never felt the same confidence hitting left-handed. And neither did my coaches. In high school, they’d say, ‘Hey, we’ve got the bases loaded. Can Aaron please hit right-handed, so we can win this game?’ [before the 2012 season], I fooled around with playing left-handed golf. I think it helped my left-handed baseball swing come along.”

 

Beyond the strains of switch-hitting, what is happening in his swing that is hindering his ability to make quality contact? In 2012 Hicks said to the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller in a Baseball America article that he had been tinkering too much with his swing the previous season.

 

“I never got any consistency last year because I was just tweaking my swing too much,” the Hicks said. “I tried my hands high, then tried them low. I tried holding my bat still, then I tried letting my hands move more freely. I was constantly changing it up.”

 

Despite trying multiple swings along the way, it appears that the bulk of the modifications were focused on his hands. Judging from recent video, the problem could be a few feet lower.

 

Watch his swing up to the point of contact from the left-hand side.

 

http://i.imgur.com/JHhf3Jt.gif

 

At the end of the clip, keep an eye on his front foot as it begins to turn and roll. For the majority of hitters, the process of turning over their front foot begins after contact, not before (with Jason Heyward being one of those outlying exceptions). While there are almost unlimited examples to compare to, below is a comparison of Hicks to teammate Joe Mauer before contact.

 

Download attachment: AH_LHB.jpg

Download attachment: JM_LHB.jpg

When this was presented to hitting instruction Bobby Tewksbary, who has worked with Jason Donaldson and Chris Colabello, Tewksbary said he believes this to be the symptom of a larger issue with his swing. This is an indicator that his front side is pulling out. In the video clip above, it is clear that his front side is drifting well below the point of contact.

 

The planted front foot ensures a strong leverage point and keeps the hips from opening up too soon. If the front side opens up, the swing as a tendency to lag through the zone and the outer-half of the plate becomes a safe haven for pitchers. This is why pitchers likely targeted Hicks in that location:

 

Download attachment: strike-zone (6).png

Perhaps even more disheartening is that pitchers threw plenty of pitches over the heart of the plate with which Hicks has been unable to produce.

 

Hicks’ practice of turning over on his foot before contact happens from the right-side as well. As he stated before, he is a much more natural hitter from the right so he demonstrates better contact and more power. That said, he still drifts:

 

Download attachment: AH_RHB.jpg

Download attachment: AJ_RHB.jpg

****

Twins hitting coach Tom Brunansky has been credited with working wonders on a handful of his players. Hicks, on the other hand, has been a complete mystery. Gifted with the tools to succeed at the highest level, the ability to hit consistently has eluded him. To this point, Brunansky and the rest of the organization’s coaches have not been able to figure out that problem either.

 

If the Twins have spotted this and have tried to get him to stop turning off his front side, then it would seem that he has not been unable to replicate the work in the cages into the game. It is also possible that he was working on it in Venezuela, hence the low yield at the plate. If they have not, it could pay dividends to attempt to have Hicks try to work on keeping his front foot firm up to the point of contact. Either way, progress needs to be made.

 

As much as Hicks could use a good season at the plate, the Twins could really benefit from having a strong contributor at a key position.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

I don't get the desire to keep switch hitting. Hasn't really worked, ever, for him, from what you read. 

 

Can he be fixed? Sure, anything is possible.

 

Will he be fixed this year? I'd bet no.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

According to fan graphs his fielding wasn't so hot in 2013 or 2014. I don't want to get into a fielding metrics debate again, just to point out that hitting isn't the only aspect of Hicks' game that needs improvement. He has a minor league reputation for good fielding. I hope it's a case where he pressed too hard on hitting and let his fielding lapse. It would be really great to have Hicks be productive as to avoid rushing Buxton and having a strong left fielder or 4th outfielder when/if Buxton is ready.

[Riverbrian]

When he gets it together it will be as quick as flipping a light switch.

 

Unfortunately some are not around long enough for them to find the light switch.

 

Molitor and the Twins can talk about Hicks opening the season as our CF in 2015. That's fine... I'm more curious to see if he is playing CF for the Twins on May 1st.

 

If it's not Hicks on May 1st... As it stands now... It could Santana back in CF.

[Homer Hanky]

I would love if he could turn into an awesome 4th outfielder... switch hitter with speed and the ability to play all 3 positions...

 

outfield the second half of the year...

 

LF Rosario CF Buxton RF Arcia 4th Hicks DH Hunter 

[Mike Sixel]

he's not really a switch hitter, though, right? He's a RH hitter, who "hits" like Drew Butera from the left side.

[Willihammer]

Nice writeup, it is amazing how many mechanical issues boil down to footwork. I don't know if Hicks should keep switch hitting or not, I just hope he comes to sprint training with ears open and the goal of turning his career around, that would be a huge boost for this team.

[gunnarthor]

I think Hicks should start the season in AAA and stay there until the bat comes around.  Maybe give up switch hitting (although at this late stage I really don't think it'll help).  But the Twins should not expect anything out of him until he hits more.

[zenser]

I think he will get it together. I also think by the time he gets it together, he will be wearing a different uniform like Gomez did.

Side note, love the powder blue uniform in the Joe Mauer pic. Those never get old.

[jay]

Keep him in AAA until he demostrates success there and the determination to be a pro.

[TheLeviathan]

Keep him in AAA until he demostrates success there and the determination to be a pro.

 

There are a lot of things that might frustrate me out of ST, but none of them as much as the idea that CF for this team is Hicks and Schaefer.  I may lose it if that's what our plan is.

[Dantes929]

There are a lot of things that might frustrate me out of ST, but none of them as much as the idea that CF for this team is Hicks and Schaefer.  I may lose it if that's what our plan is.

Ok, but why is that?   Actually seems like a pretty good solution.   Schaefer bats over 120 points better against righties and Hicks hit .279 against lefties with a .410 OBP and a .792 OPS against lefties.    Having both for late inning defensive replacements would have a lot of value as well when considering that they would either replace Hunter or Arcia.   

[TheLeviathan]

Ok, but why is that?   Actually seems like a pretty good solution.   Schaefer bats over 120 points better against righties and Hicks hit .279 against lefties with a .410 OBP and a .792 OPS against lefties.    Having both for late inning defensive replacements would have a lot of value as well when considering that they would either replace Hunter or Arcia.   

 

Well, for one, they both are average to below average defensive CFs.  Secondly, Hicks has catastrophically failed twice now and putting a switch hitter into a platoon is basically acknowledging he's failed to develop.  I'm not ready to give up hope on him, not until I've seen him work at it in AAA and try one last time.

[Riverbrian]

I think I can rightfully claim that I have not been an overly critical poster toward the front office.

 

However... I admit I have no idea what the Twins have been doing in CF since Span and Revere were dealt.

 

I think most of us were OK with the trades. I was... but I think most of us would have thought CF to be solved by now.

 

Since the trades:

 

Terry Ryan announced that Mastroianni... Benson and Hicks would compete for the job for 2013. 2 years later... Benson is out of baseball and Mastro is just about out of baseball. Hicks has proven nothing at the MLB level and reported attitude problems swirl around him. We picked out 3 guys... 2 are done with baseball just two years later and the other... Well... Yeah... The other.

 

After winning the job in ST... Hicks is so overmatched in 2013 that Clete Thomas and Alex Presley finish the year in CF.

 

Thomas and Presley are so highly thought of that they are let go.

 

Going into 2014... Despite Hicks clearly being miles from ready in 2013. He is handed the job again... Ok... Fine but surely there is a backup plan in case 2014 is like 2013.

 

The backup plan in CF is... Jason Bartlett who is a Veteren SS.

 

Hicks fails again and Bartlett retires himself after looking completely helpless in the outfield.

 

SS prospect Danny Santana is quickly moved to CF out of desperation and he performed at the plate and made significant improvement in CF as the year goes on. Schaefer was signed off waivers and he looks like a decent pickup.

 

Going into 2015... Molitor announces that Santana will move back to SS moving Escobar to the bench or trade bait and Hicks/Schaefer are announced as the CF plan.

 

This will be year 3 since the trades... Can anyone explain what the Twins are thinking? Waiting for Buxton? Well... Buxton isn't here yet and he's been very injury prone thus far.

 

CF just appears to be Under Assessed... Under Addressed... And under stressed for 3 years running now.

 

Thank God we signed Schaefer is all I got to say... Thank God we got that guy off waivers... That's what I'm saying.

 

I can't believe I'm saying that. But thank god for Schafer.

[Dantes929]

he's not really a switch hitter, though, right? He's a RH hitter, who "hits" like Drew Butera from the left side.

I might be able to make the case that very few players in the history of baseball benefited by being switch hitters.     If 6 percent are capable of doing it then I will guess that only 2% of those capable of it should actually do it.       Mickey Mantle and Eddie Murray were fantastic switch hitters but their splits against righty and lefty were probably very similar to what they would have been if they only hit from their dominant side.   Of course we can never be sure but it just stands to reason.   Maybe only hitting from one side would have raised their averages against righties and lefties.   There is just no way of knowiing.    I never liked the idea of Hicks switch hitting.   It always seemed like the BEST possible outcome would be for him to hit 20-40 points less from the left side which is about what you would expect him to do against righties batting as a right hander so where is the advantage?    I have never been a huge fan of his but have defended him any way for his OBP and I liked the idea of him going only right handed but maybe it is just too late.  If that is the case then maybe platooning is the best path for his career.   

[ashbury]

I think I can rightfully claim that I have not been an overly critical poster toward the front office.

 

However... I admit I have no idea what the Twins have been doing in CF since Span and Revere were dealt.

...

In this context Sam Fuld, who you didn't mention, winds up being just a footnote.  But still a perplexing one.  Though just a waiver wire pickup, he represents a third CF traded for a young starting pitcher.  Unless Milone winds up being one of the 8 starting pitchers to lock up a spot in the opening day rotation, which IMO he is not an extreme long-shot to do, the Twins overall situation would seem a lot more settled if we still had Fuld instead.  It seems as though the front office can't turn down an offer of starting pitching for center field; I wonder what offers Terry Ryan is mulling right now, in exchange for Byron Buxton.

[shs_59]

2 Huge things stick out to me when looking at the Adam Jones and Aaron Hicks photos there...

 

1) Hicks starts his swing much sooner than Jones (or thinks he has to)  he's already looking way out towards the oncoming baseball well before it arives. Head pointed to his target almost tooo early.

 

2) Jones meanwhile, lets the ball get in much deeper, and look at his head, he's almost barely moving his head all the way while the baseball is oncoming to home plate.

 

Jones just looks like a much better firing position on that shot than Hicks' does.

Jones - Keeps a better center of gravity, is standing taller, is not have all the weight already shifted to his front side (as hicks seems to)  and Lets the ball get deep.

[CesarTovar]

Maybe Hicks should put down the 7 iron and pick up a bat and hit about 1000 balls off a tee (from both sides of the plate), hit soft toss for about an hour a day, and in another two weeks get in the cage and start hitting and hitting and hitting.  He's probably feeling a ton of pressure with all of the Buxton talk also.

[gil4]

 

Dantes929:      ...maybe platooning is the best path for his career

 

It's harder to be strictly a platoon as a predominant RH hitter because there are so many fewer ABs against LHPs.  The RH platoon partner really needs to be able to do more. 

[Squirrel]

There are a lot of things that might frustrate me out of ST, but none of them as much as the idea that CF for this team is Hicks and Schaefer.  I may lose it if that's what our plan is.

Whether or not it's our plan, it may happen anyway.  And I'm with you on this.  What Jay said ... he needs to go to AAA and demonstrate he's ready of the bigs on all levels.

[Trov]

I think Hicks at the plate his biggest problem is his head.  I think he over thinks everything which just messes him up.  I am not sure he knows what kind of player he should be.  I like that he is learned to walk at a much higher rate.  I think if he continues to switch hit he needs to be a Span type hitter from the left side.  That being someone who will work the count and slap the ball up the middle and to left field.  Won't have much power but he will stop rolling over everything too.  I am not giving up on him, and think bringing in Hunter will do wonders for Hicks.  Hunter was Hicks hero growing up and hope Hicks will stick to him like a sponge picking up all the tips that Hunter has.  

[SwainZag]

In this context Sam Fuld, who you didn't mention, winds up being just a footnote.  But still a perplexing one.  Though just a waiver wire pickup, he represents a third CF traded for a young starting pitcher.  Unless Milone winds up being one of the 8 starting pitchers to lock up a spot in the opening day rotation, which IMO he is not an extreme long-shot to do, the Twins overall situation would seem a lot more settled if we still had Fuld instead.  It seems as though the front office can't turn down an offer of starting pitching for center field; I wonder what offers Terry Ryan is mulling right now, in exchange for Byron Buxton.

 

The same 33 year old Sam Fuld the Twins got for free who seemingly had a career year at the plate AND in the field?  The Twins getting a pitcher the age and talent that Millone is for Fuld is quite remarkable if you ask me.

[dxpavelka]

I'm not sure the problem is a few feet below his hands.  I think it might be about a foot above them.  90% of this game is half mental and Hicks doesn't seem to have mastered that part.  We know he CAN hit.  We've seen it in spring training.  The question is what happens inside his head when the lights turn on and the games count.    He has not been handed the CF job the last two years.  He's won the job in camp.  We're also still talking about a guy with less than 550 career big league plate appearances.  In spite of the horrendous batting average of his rookie year, 40% of the hits he did get were for extra bases.  Can't give up on this kid with less than 1000 plate appearances.  See Gomez, Carlos. 

[Mike Sixel]

If he wasn't handed the job last year, what was the other option, exactly?

 

He didn't HIT that well even in the minors. Who, here, said "give up on him".....and, the Twins did not give up on Gomez, they traded for a starting SS.

[Dr. Evil]

This is great! Love talking about this type of stuff!

 

Just my opinion here, but I would place Hicks at AAA and play him every day for the first half of the season at a minimum. I am one who is not terribly optimistic about his future with the Twins. However, if he can sustain a level of performance at AAA and reinforce it through repetition, he might have a shot. I think he would need to be willing to put in a lot of extra time every day to make the jump to the majors though.

 

Regarding his swing, and I am no hitting expert, my opinion is that he gets his lower half out in front of his upper half and then long arms the bat through the strike zone. So, he is not getting any leg power in to his swing.

 

In the video you can see he is already picking up his front foot just before the pitcher has released the ball. Also, by the time he starts to drop the barrel of the bat towards the zone his hips are already opened up.

 

So, my not so expert advice is, stand a little taller with his feet closer together and his hands relaxed. Get the hands in a little tighter to the body to begin with and relax the arms too. When he strides in to the ball, stride a little more towards the left side of the pitchers rubber instead of striding to the right side and opening up early. This should help him stay closed and help him coordinate his upper and lower halves together rather than fighting one another. The closest examples I can think of are David Justice and Ken Griffey Jr.

 

I'm probably totally wrong> But, it's fun to get to have an opinion! 

[Linus]

Good arguments could be made for starting him at AAA or the big leagues if he wins the job. The option that should not be considered is platoon in him. He's still a prospect and needs to play every day wherever he's at.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The same 33 year old Sam Fuld the Twins got for free who seemingly had a career year at the plate AND in the field?  The Twins getting a pitcher the age and talent that Millone is for Fuld is quite remarkable if you ask me.

I thought it was an OK flip too, but Milone might have been damaged goods and it doesn't look like we will particularly need him next year.

 

And even if you make that flip, given the adventures of 2013-2014 you'd think a CF acquisition would be a priority going into the offseason, yet here we are...

[Dantes929]

It's harder to be strictly a platoon as a predominant RH hitter because there are so many fewer ABs against LHPs.  The RH platoon partner really needs to be able to do more. 

We used to have a platoon of Leius and Pags at 3rd.   Platoon of an outfield position actually makes a lot more sense since the being able to do more part includes late inning defensive or baserunning replacement which considering out outfield defense otherwise has a fair amount of value.     I am one of the few that would be fine if they just put him out there every day all season but being realistic and logical about it.   Its hard enough to hit major league pitching without it being from your non dominant side.   I never liked that he even started out being a switch hitter but with Buxton coming and possibly Rosario, if he goes down to work on his skills his callup will only be as 4th outfielder anyway.   I would think platoon is greater than 4th outfielder in terms of value and every team needs a 4th outfielder.  I get what you are saying though.  If the solution were clean cut we wouldn't be on here talking about it.      I have always like the idea of platooning one or two positions where it makes sense based on splits and this seems to be one of those cases. 

[Dantes929]

I thought it was an OK flip too, but Milone might have been damaged goods and it doesn't look like we will particularly need him next year.

 

And even if you make that flip, given the adventures of 2013-2014 you'd think a CF acquisition would be a priority going into the offseason, yet here we are...

See that's the part I don't get.   Milone had a decent career going and after a slow start with the A's he won 6 games in a row and brought his ERA from 5.86 all the way down to 3.55 at which time he was demoted.   What happened? On the face of it he should be in the top 2 for Minnesota and yet is viewed as rotation fodder.   It does look like he is damaged goods but no one has said in what way he was damaged.

[Dr. Evil]

The more I think about it, the more I believe the Twins will keep him in the majors. I'm guessing his locker will be next to Hunter's locker.