Article: Purchasing A Rotation, And What It Means

[tobi0040]

There may be several ways to assemble a good rotation but I honestly don't believe the Twins new approach of signing average or above average free agents for their age 30 years is the best way, or even close to the best.

 

 

I don't think the Twins believe we think the best way to add rotation talent is through free agency.  I think the Nolasco and Santana signings signal that at this point in time, we don't feel like we have enough sure things in house, thus we were more or less forced to participate in free agency and add.

 

I think it got to the point where three-four years in a row of having a terrible rotation was too much.  The typical bargain bin signings to "stabalize the back-half of the rotation", i.e. Pelfrey and Correia did not pan out.  And as the article alluded to, the Twins have seen some prospects really struggle (Hicks) and others get hurt (Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Stewart, etc.).  That probably changed the approach of we can just wait for 25 young guys to come up and claim all the roster spots.

Edited December 17, 2014 by tobi0040

[TheLeviathan]

Point taken--sort of. I wouldn't use the phrase "very untrue" to describe the value of an Ace to a WS contender, which is kind of where I see some posters going. I went all the way back to the 2013 season and saw that Lester pitched pretty good in the postseason. San Francisco has three World Series trips in five years with all their own drafted pitchers. 

 

Going back two years seems like a poor sample.  Take the last decade and look at how the actual top-end pitchers performed.  

 

I used to believe the same thing you do, but the stats are absolutely unsupportive of that opinion.  The best ingredient to winning a World Series is a lot of luck and enough guys getting hot at the same time.  Or basically the ingredients for success in any small sample.

[Major League Ready]

I don't think Baltimore has anyone that would be considered a true #1.  It seems to me that a true #1 is not necessary to get to post season play but a big advantage once you are there.  I guess as GM you have to address the public as if there is a plan to make the playoffs but the odds of this team going from 72 to whatever it takes to win the central is remote at best.  If it happens, it would be more likely a product of Gibson dominant in most of his games instead of 1/3 of them.  Hughes would have to be as good or better and Nolasco would have to perform at his career best.  If all of that went right, a whole bunch of offensive players would have to perform to their ceilings.

 

I get TR has to take this approach publically but this audience is above rationalizing decisions based on the 2014 Twins winning the central or even a wildcard.

[Willihammer]

There are two different points at issue - whether an ace, however you define that, is necessary to be a contender, and, whether lousy team must develop an ace from within. I think the latter is obviously untrue, just by looking back at teams that make the playoffs this decade - the 2014 O's, Royals, and Pirates being the most recent examples of teams who used to be lousy, then went out and got their #1's through trade or free agency. As for the first point, every fan would love for the Twins to have one of the best pitchers in the game. Luckily they do - Phil Hughes.

Edited December 17, 2014 by Willihammer

[diehardtwinsfan]

Necessary is the key word.  I'd say no to the idea that the ace is necessary, but I'd be hard pressed to say it doesn't hurt.  I also subscribe to the idea that there are about 10 true aces in MLB as well.   I believe that most of us would agree that a rotation of 5 number 2s is better than a 1-5, and Ryan is attempting at doing that with the Nolasco, Hughes, and Santana signings as these guys are all 2/3 types (though Hughes pitched like a 1 this season and Nolasco... well didn't).  That rotation of 2/3 types is also a lot cheaper than the ace, so there's something to be said about spreading the money around and getting better results overall, b/c if they piled all that money one guy, you are looking at more types of guys like Walters getting starts.

 

The other thing about post season is the SSS issue.  An ace can pitch well and the team can still lose if the offense cannot score or if the other pitchers just get beat.  An ace will pitch twice in a 5 gamer and 3 times at best in a 7 gamer.  And if you use all 3 bullets in the CS, it's likely the ace isn't going to pitch 3 games in the WS.  Same goes with the DS/CS.

 

That said, the Twins appear to building a nice depth of top end talent and have plenty of depth of guys who won't embarrass themselves in MLB as well.  Their 3 guys under contract (I expect Nolasco to rebound) paired with Meyer, Gibson, May, and Berrios in the shorter term should be fine, and as those contracts expire, guys like Stewart, Thorpe, Gonsalves, and Hu all look like they could step up and pitch in the 1-3 range.  They have plenty of other depth guys who look more like 3/4 type guys in Rogers, Duffey, Lee, Darnell, etc that could step in as needed too, though I suspect many of these guys get traded assuming the others remain relatively healthy.

 

Back to the topic, a few of those younger guys could very well be that ace guy, but in the mean time, they should have decent pitching top to bottom...  Of course, as dreadful as that defense was last season, I'm not sure how much it will really help unless their pitchers are striking out 20 guys a game. Even though he's lost a step, I'm hoping Hunter can teach guys like Arcia, Buxton, and Hicks the nuances of playing good OF defense.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Would love to see Hughes repeat his 2014 performance or Santana repeat his 2008 or 2013 performance, if not this year then next year. And of course Gibson continue to improve.

 

Nolasco seems to top out at an ERA+ of 101, however. Maybe he'll be the pleasant surprise in 2015 and we can flip him for some pocket protectors

[jay]

The more I think about it, the more I think Milone will end up with the fifth spot if he has a decent spring. That would put Pelfrey and Meyer in the 'pen with May starting at AAA as the "first guy up".

 

I'm trying to convince myself I'm okay with that...

[TheLeviathan]

The more I think about it, the more I think Milone will end up with the fifth spot if he has a decent spring. That would put Pelfrey and Meyer in the 'pen with May starting at AAA as the "first guy up".

 

I'm trying to convince myself I'm okay with that...

 

I'm trying to convince myself that it doesn't seem likely.