Article: Purchasing A Rotation, And What It Means

[Beezer07]

Any word on whether the Twins will give Meyer the Johan Treatment? Or why it's not feasible to have him come up and get spot starts/pitch 3-4 innings at a time out of the pen?

[Willihammer]

Every winter I'm disappointed so many fans say the Twins won't contend. How do you know? Is it Steamer? Have you tallied the Steamer WARs and concluded the Twins cant contend? Because, the reigning World Series champs didn't have the highest WAR, not close. Or, are you all able to predict the future?

[TheLeviathan]

Every winter I'm disappointed so many fans say the Twins won't contend. How do you know? Is it Steamer? Have you tallied the Steamer WARs and concluded the Twins cant contend? Because, the reigning World Series champs didn't have the highest WAR, not close. Or, are you all able to predict the future?

 

I don't think it would be impossible, I just don't believe the total sum of talent on the team is enough yet.  It's getting closer though.

[Dave T]

I don't get any of the "Twins are not a contending team" discussion.  Twins scored more runs than anyone in the last couple months of 2014.  Five competent starters should be enough to push the Twins into contention.

[nicksaviking]

Every winter I'm disappointed so many fans say the Twins won't contend. How do you know? Is it Steamer? Have you tallied the Steamer WARs and concluded the Twins cant contend? Because, the reigning World Series champs didn't have the highest WAR, not close. Or, are you all able to predict the future?

 

I think the Twins will be much better than expected.  But having a good record isn't the same as contending.  This team isn't contending until it has an ace or two leading the rotation.

[JB_Iowa]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale  · 49m49 minutes ago 
The #Phillies, #Twins and #Astros are all biggest longshots at 150/1

[Squirrel]

Every winter I'm disappointed so many fans say the Twins won't contend. How do you know? Is it Steamer? Have you tallied the Steamer WARs and concluded the Twins cant contend? Because, the reigning World Series champs didn't have the highest WAR, not close. Or, are you all able to predict the future?

It's all about possibility vs probability and how much weight you want to give each.  I always hope for the possibilities, but I also prepare for the probabilities. 

[Brandon]

Well, see, this is just the problem. The Twins aren't a contending team right now

Why not?  they have a top 5 offense that just got better with Hunter.  Their rotation while not great has 3 dependable starters with a 4th one who should bounce back giving the team 4 12-15 game winners.  The bullpen is above average as well.  we may have lost 92 games last season but last season our team wasn't the same type of loosing season as the others.  we improved our run differential by over 100.  We just improved a rotation spot that should net us 40 runs or so in the run differential for next season.  so what part of our team is going to keep us from contending? 

[Dantes929]

There were 8 starters on playoff teams that had ERA's north of 4 with several being over 4.5.   This is actually fewer than I thought there would be.   Look at all the Twins playoff seasons and there were a couple rookies we relied very heavily on such as Garza or Liriano or Bonxer.    I am sure the 87 Twins would have loved to have May and Meyer challenging for the 3 and 4 spot much less the #5.   Having highly regarded prospects that had good minor league seasons hold down rotation spots is something EVERYONE does contending or not.  Do you think the internally developed rotation of the Cards and the Giants became seasoned vets after their first starts or that these teams were wary about relying on them.   Twins have not transitioned as well recently but that doesn't mean anything.   No one on here thought Hicks would fail after a strong minor league season and a great ST.   No one on here thought Santana would thrive like he did.  Everyone is different but you have to rely on your prospects at some point.   Of course not all prospects pan out but most major leaguers were high prospects at some point.  

[Trov]

You can never have too much pitching.  Injuries always happen, some for just a start or two, some for much longer.  Hell, baseball is starting to push toward six man rotations soon.  If you do have too much starting pitching other teams will always pay to get some from you with position players.  So if the free agent vets pitch like we all hope they do and May, Meyer, and any other prospect get blocked, we can use them to fill other holes we may have.  Look at what Oakland gave up last year for a total of three pitchers. 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

It's all about options. The Twins will go into 2015 with multiple scenarios for fielding a competitive rotation.   

 

In 2015, the team will have protection from injuries and poor performance - while still leaving the door open for prospects to get major league innings.

 

Depending on how 2015 unfolds - we could have a veteran rotation that enables us to compete for a playoff spot in September or the opportunity to trade off veteran assets to make room for younger arms.  

 

I see absolutely no downside to this strategy.  I have no doubt that if the young arms are effective either out of the pen or in spot starts, they will get an opportunity to start next year and beyond. 

[beckmt]

We are closer to getting to .500, but our division may be one of the better ones, so it might be difficult this year.  I believe it will be more entertaining this year.  No one can have too much pitching.   This will be different than the last several years for the Twins.

[Nick Nelson]

OK, yeah, it's not out of the realm of possibility for the Twins to contend. But they've basically admitted that they're not planning around it, and it's not hard to see why. They've lost 90 games four years in a row and the rest of this division is pretty good right now.

 

They'd need some wild-card type performances to get them over the hump, like maybe an Alex Meyer entering the mix and pitching lights-out. Which only furthers the idea that there needs to be space available for him.

[tobi0040]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale  · 49m49 minutes ago 

The #Phillies, #Twins and #Astros are all biggest longshots at 150/1

 

150 to 1 seems like a nice wager actually.  If Nolasco reverts to career norms and Ervin puts up a similar 4.00 ERA....and Meyer pulls a Harvey/Wheeler I could see us winning the division.  Then we are one of 8 teams for a 150 to 1 payoff.

[The Wise One]

As a counterpoint, name one contending team that would be excited about the prospect of having to depend on Nolasco, Gibson, Milone or Pelfrey to hold down one spot in the rotation (much less three spots!), with the playoffs riding on it. Given a choice between those six pitchers, I'm sure some contenders would pick Meyer or May.

How short memories are. The Dodgers traded for Nolasco on a stretch run. So I guess that would be one contending team that wanted a Nolasco. Milone, The Phillies went out and got Jamie Moyer for a stretch run.  Gibson is developing.  Smyly and Porcello were developed at the back of Detroit's rotation. When they got further developed, look at the return Detroit got.

[JB_Iowa]

Apparently the Twins brought in a large supply of rose-colored glasses along with Molitor, Hunter & Santana.

 

Optimism is good -- fans should be optimistic in the off-season -- but I'm beginning to feel like I need hip-waders.

[Linus]

Apparently the Twins brought in a large supply of rose-colored glasses along with Molitor, Hunter & Santana.

 

Optimism is good -- fans should be optimistic in the off-season -- but I'm beginning to feel like I need hip-waders.

I don't think the optimism is over the top.  They had one of the best offenses in baseball last year and have a history of putting together good bullpens.  With a bounce back of Nolasco and now Santana, their pitching should be much improved.  Now, with the increased competition for the last spot in the rotation, we should be able to comfortably say we will get good production there as well.

[tobi0040]

I don't think the optimism is over the top.  They had one of the best offenses in baseball last year and have a history of putting together good bullpens.  With a bounce back of Nolasco and now Santana, their pitching should be much improved.  Now, with the increased competition for the last spot in the rotation, we should be able to comfortably say we will get good production there as well.

 

II just think if you play this season 150 times the Twins would win at least one championship.  I don't think that is overly optimistic.

[Linus]

I actually think most of the posters on this topic are much closer in opinion than meets the eye.  I think the biggest underlying difference has to do with what each person's expectations are for next year.

 

Cleveland was in contention for the second wild card last year well into September and they were around .500 most of the year.  I think the Twins, with the addition of Santana, can do that next year.  It probably got harder with the steps forward our Central rivals have taken but its not unrealistic to believe this could happen.

 

In other words, I don't think we have to wait any longer to win some games, and we can do this while adding prospects along the way.  That;'s why I'm glad they signed Santana; I don't think we are in full re-build mode anymore.

[Otto von Ballpark]

How short memories are. The Dodgers traded for Nolasco on a stretch run. So I guess that would be one contending team that wanted a Nolasco

The Dodgers basically got Nolasco for nothing, and made no effort to re-sign him. The next year they picked up Correia for the stretch run too...

[Linus]

To complete my thoughts, I do think the development angle is more important with Meyer than May simply because of the upside.  He has a ceiling that no other pitcher in the Twins organization has so that makes him more important in my estimation.  As others have pointed out, the only chance we have of an ace is if Meyer fulfills his potential.

 

May is a 3/4 type guy which are far easier to find so I don't worry about hm nor am I going to bank on him.

 

I would give the 5th spot to Meyer out of spring training and have May be the first man up.

Edited December 15, 2014 by Linus

[dxpavelka]

Meyer and May were/are almost certainly going to be eaten alive as rookies no matter when they got called up, just like Gibson did.  I would have rather they had taken their lumps in 2014 with the hopes that they became accustomed to MLB compitition in 2015 rather than 2016.  Now they may take their lumps in 2016 and we have to hope they are competent in 2017.

 

May and Meyer will not be blocked if Gibson and/or the #5 guy don't perform well.  Nolasco, Santana and Hughes will not get benched no matter how May and Meyer perform.  Seems silly to hope for injuries, and significant ones at that.  Spot starts due to a couple of missed starts won't do them much good. 

Nobody "hopes" for injuries but they do happen.  The best thing that happened to the Twins in 2014 was that that finally had sufficient organizational depth that when callups needed to be made they were bringing up legitimate prospects like Santana & Vargas (& even Polanco briefly) instead of guys like Doug Bernier.  Pretty sure that the addition of one proven big league starter does not take this team from a position of having the worst starting pitching in the league last year to one of having such a wealth of talent that youngsters are getting blocked.

[nicksaviking]

Well, when the "promote Meyer" club was banging their drum in mid-July last year, we were told his fastball command and changeup weren't up to snuff.

 

Lacking fastball command and effective secondary pitches sounds exactly like the problem had by every pitcher in the Twins rotation not named Hughes last year.

[Halsey Hall]

Doc - My hand is raised!  I'm the blacksheep of the family, but my eyes will be on Pelfrey as much as on the other pitchers shortly.  And if he's healthy and has an exceptional spring, I'd expect him to be in the rotation.  As Mike says, give the best 5 the spots. 

 

If Nolasco doesn't start the season off well in say his first 8 starts, I'd be done with him.  I'd also give Meyer a shot at the rotation, and May the pen.  I think that's the way to go with those two. 

 

I'm getting pumped as I'll be down there in less than a month now, and there'll be guys down getting ready. 

[lightfoot789]

SPEND BIG ON PITCHERS (free agents) NOW and bring in Scherzer on a front loaded contract.  Trade him when the Youngins are ready and after a few World Series.  With the Twins offense - Would the Twins become AL Central contenders and Playoff front runners?  I would think our offense is set up to be better than everyone else in the central moving forward considering the prospects in the system.

SAVING MONEY WITH THE YOUNG HITTERS UNDER CONTRACT CONTROL and SPEND BIG ON PITCHERS NOW. 

"CHANGING THE THEME IN 2015"

[realistic twins fan]

I think signing Santana was a great move.  Trevor May needs to learn how to throw strikes consistently, he'll always be a liability until that happens.  He did it for a long stretch in Rochester, but lost it after he missed some time with a minor injury. Until he gets to a point where the control is never an issue for him, you can't hold a rotation spot open and pass on a proven commodity like Santana.  Make May or Meyer beat the other one out, there's nothing wrong with a little competition.  If Berrios is lighting the world on fire, you can figure out a way to make room for him assuming everyone is healthy.   

[Dantes929]

Why is everyone saying the Central is so improved?  White Sox should be a lot better,  Twins should be better, Indians should be slightly better.  Royals lost Butler and Shields.   Tigers lost their best pitcher.    Sounds like the Central is about the same but with more parity.     I never thought the Central was bad to start with but am questioning whether they have really gotten much better..

[TheLeviathan]

If people think this top 5 offense is sustainable then I have a bridge to talk with you about.

[Linus]

If people think this top 5 offense is sustainable then I have a bridge to talk with you about.

I can't speak for others but....while I don't think they will end up 5th again, I think it is reasonable to think top 10 or so.  There are several regression candidates but there are others who will likely do better next year.... 

[tobi0040]

I can't speak for others but....while I don't think they will end up 5th again, I think it is reasonable to think top 10 or so.  There are several regression candidates but there are others who will likely do better next year.... 

 

Yeah.  I would think top 10-12 or so.

 

Potential regression:

 

Vargas, Santana, Plouffe, Suzuki, Escober, Dozier....

 

Potential to have a better year:

Mauer and Hicks (how could he have a worse year?)

 

Add in potentially adding Sano and Buxton at some point.  Torii is at least a wash offensively vs. Willingham's .732 OPS last year, Schaefer that played for him.