Article: Purchasing A Rotation, And What It Means

[Nick Nelson]

In the past two offseasons, the Twins have signed four free agent pitchers to multi-year contracts. Four! When you think about that -- relative to their past tendencies and against the backdrop of an internally facilitated rebuild -- that's kind of crazy.

 

What motivated the club to enter into lengthy commitments with so many outside pitchers, and what does it mean for the young arms already in the organization vying for their own spots in a suddenly crowded rotation?Terry Ryan said what you'd expect after adding Ervin Santana last week:

 

"This isn’t exactly the blueprint we had in mind, going out and signing a guy for $55 million,” Ryan said. “Jim Pohlad gave us the ability to do that, and hopefully it’ll pay off, but the ideal is to keep [prospects] coming through the system, through player development.”

 

Who could argue with that? Compared to veterans signed on the open market, young homegrown starters are far less expensive and generally less liable to break down. The teams that reign over MLB are the ones that can consistently develop and produce those arms, like St. Louis and San Francisco.

 

But the four-year deal for Santana, one offseason after four-year and three-year pacts with Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes, inhibits the ability of Minnesota's system to pay dividends.

 

One internally developed piece, Kyle Gibson, has already staked his claim with a solid first full season. But the Twins are evidently skeptical of either him, or the prospects behind him in the pipeline, because they're leaving little flexibility to build around him in the rotation from within.

 

Three rotation spots other than Gibson's are now essentially locked up for both 2015 and 2016. That leaves only one clear opening over the next two years for a trio of quality prospects who are all pretty close, if not beyond ready, for the big leagues.

 

Trevor May logged 45 innings in the majors this year, and while his overall results were not good, he showed enough positive signs -- and dominated enough at Triple-A beforehand -- to deserve at least a long look next spring.

 

Alex Meyer, the prize of the Denard Span trade, will turn 25 in January and he has already made 27 starts at Triple-A, where he led his league in strikeouts this year. It's hard to justify keeping him in the minors much longer.

 

J.O. Berrios is not a credible contender to break camp with the Twins next year, but he'll likely start at Double-A and if his performance is anything like it was in 2014, he could be angling for a big-league promotion in the second half.

 

Injuries and other things happen, so in reality a lot of this might take care of itself. That's why overall I'm a fan of the decision to bring in Santana. But I hope that when situations arise where it comes down to either giving a chance to a young guy who's ready, or stalling in favor of veteran mediocrity, the Twins will make the right choice.

 

I'd like to think they will, because Ryan knows as well as anyone the value of going with your own prospects rather than splurging on free agents.

 

But now, that money is already spent.

 

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[Thegrin]

We will watch with interest and keep our fingers crossed. I am hoping that Meyer and May pitch in relief until a spot opens up.  I am hoping that Gibson is not the first to fail.

It is going to be a very interesting season from the first game onward.

Will Hughes repeat his dominant season?

Will Nolasco be the pitcher we signed?

Will Gibson improve?

Will Santana be the pitcher we signed?

Will be Milone be the crafty lefty we traded for?

What about Meyer & May?

Will Pelfrey be able to help us in any way?

and thats just the starters,

[KGB]

It's looks like we have a chance to have a very good rotation in AAA

[HitInAPinch]

At 25, Meyer should be in the majors.  Or at least a mid-season call up.  I was fairly surprised they called up May 1st.  May and Meyer in the bullpen until a spot opens?  Hmm, not at the cost of further stretching out their arms at AAA.

 

I'd be cautious on both Hughes and Gibson.  Both pitched more innings than they should have, especially Gibson.  Hughes has a bit of a history of having one really good year of 30+ starts and something happening the next year.

 

Signing multiple #3-4 type pitchers to 3+ year contracts seems like a bad idea considering they hype behind several of the Twins minor league pitchers.

 

But then again, there's the whole 'hype' thing....

[HitInAPinch]

It's looks like we have a chance to have a very good rotation in AAA

 Here's hoping they turn into a very good Major League rotation.

 

Then again, if you're actually talking about the Major League rotation:  Ouchie !!

[by jiminy]

I don't get the worry.  Name one CONTENDING team that would be excited about the prospect of having to depend on May or Meyer to hold down a spot in the rotation, with the playoffs riding on it. Sure, one or both of them may reach that level. But neither yet has shown consistent command of multiple pitches. I for one am thrilled they won't be rushed to the majors until they're ready. And that the major league rotation won't be held hostage to mere promise with no reliable backup plan, the way the center field spot was. Worst case, they are all so unbelievable good that the Twins are forced to trade someone, or have some really good pitchers in the bullpen. I just don't get how that is a problem.

[FlsPrpht]

Injuries always happen to starting pitchers.  It's not like our starting 5 will go all year without needing to call someone up or move some from the bullpen.

[nicksaviking]

I don't get the worry.  Name one CONTENDING team that would be excited about the prospect of having to depend on May or Meyer to hold down a spot in the rotation, with the playoffs riding on it. Sure, one or both of them may reach that level. But neither yet has shown consistent command of multiple pitches. I for one am thrilled they won't be rushed to the majors until they're ready. And that the major league rotation won't be held hostage to mere promise with no reliable backup plan, the way the center field spot was. Worst case, they are all so unbelievable good that the Twins are forced to trade someone, or have some really good pitchers in the bullpen. I just don't get how that is a problem.

 

Well the probelm with this is that the Twins aren't a contending team.  The longer the team puts off the development of the prospects, the longer the rebuild will take  Also, May and Meyer aren't being rushed, they're 25 and have had plenty of minor league seasoning. 

[bird]

I don't get the worry.  Name one CONTENDING team that would be excited about the prospect of having to depend on May or Meyer to hold down a spot in the rotation, with the playoffs riding on it. Sure, one or both of them may reach that level. But neither yet has shown consistent command of multiple pitches. I for one am thrilled they won't be rushed to the majors until they're ready. And that the major league rotation won't be held hostage to mere promise with no reliable backup plan, the way the center field spot was. Worst case, they are all so unbelievable good that the Twins are forced to trade someone, or have some really good pitchers in the bullpen. I just don't get how that is a problem.

This.

 

Wishful thinking aside, Meyer probably would have been eaten alive in the majors last year. May is far from a sure thing still. What's much more certain is injuries and/or meltdowns within the rotation. Remember Pavano, Liriano, Baker, Slowey with nothing in the AAA cupboard? Remember a backup plan of DeVries, Walters, Hernandez, and Albers? May and Meyer will not be blocked if they prove themselves, and our Berrios is not a 2015 guy. 

[Thegrin]

May had a chance to adjust to major league hitters, Meyer was not healthy. What more could they have done in 2014.  Maybe May will beat out Milone for the 5th starter spot.  Maybe Meyer will start in the bullpen.  2015 will be interesting.

[nicksaviking]

This.

 

Wishful thinking aside, Meyer probably would have been eaten alive in the majors last year. May is far from a sure thing still. What's much more certain is injuries and/or meltdowns within the rotation. Remember Pavano, Liriano, Baker, Slowey with nothing in the AAA cupboard? Remember a backup plan of DeVries, Walters, Hernandez, and Albers? May and Meyer will not be blocked if they prove themselves, and our Berrios is not a 2015 guy. 

 

Meyer and May were/are almost certainly going to be eaten alive as rookies no matter when they got called up, just like Gibson did.  I would have rather they had taken their lumps in 2014 with the hopes that they became accustomed to MLB compitition in 2015 rather than 2016.  Now they may take their lumps in 2016 and we have to hope they are competent in 2017.

 

May and Meyer will not be blocked if Gibson and/or the #5 guy don't perform well.  Nolasco, Santana and Hughes will not get benched no matter how May and Meyer perform.  Seems silly to hope for injuries, and significant ones at that.  Spot starts due to a couple of missed starts won't do them much good. 

Edited December 15, 2014 by nicksaviking

[beckmt]

Interesting but reading some earlier articles convinced me that TR has already had the discussion with Pohlad.  When it was brought up TR said the Nolasco was not guaranteed a spot in the rotation.  This means that Pohlad may already have signed off on eating part of his salary or cutting Nolasco if he does not pitch up to where the Twins feel he should during this year.

[IowaTwin346]

This is a much better problem to have than the PJ Walters, Cole DeVries, Scott Diamond, Andrew Albers, Pedro Hernandez type rotations that were trotted out the last few years.  I would rather have the problem of "the Twins have too many guys", than, "Who started?"

[tobi0040]

This is a much better problem to have than the PJ Walters, Cole DeVries, Scott Diamond, Andrew Albers, Pedro Hernandez type rotations that were trotted out the last few years.  I would rather have the problem of "the Twins have too many guys", than, "Who started?"

 

Agreed.  I am not going to make a huge deal of signings some starters.  Very few world series championship teams have a rotation completely made up of in-house developed players.

 

I think the Twins had a pipe dream of that happening.  Five young studs who are cheap and propelling us to a championship.  I think it is a sign of progress that they re-assessed the strategy and made a change.

Edited December 15, 2014 by tobi0040

[Dantes929]

I look at Meyer and May a bit differently than the posts I have read.    May had a really terrific minor league season and his debut in the majors may have been a bit different if he had been promoted while pitching great instead of after a month off due to injury with just a couple starts after the injury before being promoted.   I am excited about how good he can be.   Meyer had a good season as well limited not by his own performance but by the organization.   He had lots of 80 pitch 5 inning shutouts.   Again, as far as I know he was limited by the Twin.   I would like to have seen him promoted but don't know why anyone would think he would be eaten alive anymore than any other rookie since all reports say he has fantastic stuff and he led the league in strikeouts.

[markos]

I don't get the worry.  Name one CONTENDING team that would be excited about the prospect of having to depend on May or Meyer to hold down a spot in the rotation, with the playoffs riding on it. Sure, one or both of them may reach that level. But neither yet has shown consistent command of multiple pitches. I for one am thrilled they won't be rushed to the majors until they're ready. And that the major league rotation won't be held hostage to mere promise with no reliable backup plan, the way the center field spot was. Worst case, they are all so unbelievable good that the Twins are forced to trade someone, or have some really good pitchers in the bullpen. I just don't get how that is a problem.

As a counterpoint, name one contending team that would be excited about the prospect of having to depend on Nolasco, Gibson, Milone or Pelfrey to hold down one spot in the rotation (much less three spots!), with the playoffs riding on it. Given a choice between those six pitchers, I'm sure some contenders would pick Meyer or May.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think the Twins had a pipe dream of that happening.  Five young studs who are cheap and propelling us to a championship.  I think it is a sign of progress that they re-assessed the strategy and made a change.

 

I don't disagree, but the problem is that you still are going to need an ace to win and the Twins haven't and won't be buying an ace on the free agent market.  If the only chance to win is to get an ace, and the only way to get an ace is to develop one yourself, it seems the Twins are actually delaying the possiblity of becoming relevant, even if signing capable vets would instinctively seem to do the opposite. 

 

I don't believe any amount of minor league seasoning is going to prepare the young arms for the MLB level, I think they need to struggle at the big leagues first no matter what.  The longer it is put off, the longer I think it will take for the team to make a run.

[DocBauer]

Let's not rewind the "shouldn't have re-signed him" tape ok. A raise of hands for anyone who really believes that Pelfrey, after the past two seasons and a new staff in place, is really any kind of strong contender for the final spot in the rotation.

 

Secondly, I'm not going to pile on Milone for his lousy time with the Twins last season. It was a short tenure, thus SSS, and he was reportedly less than 100%. Now, if part of his injury was ego related from his AAA demotion by Oakland, then that's HIS issue. I think he looks sound if not solid, but he doesn't appear as anything special. And I don't believe the Twins will give him a leg up just because he's LH. May and Meyer were traded for for a reason. They are very talented. They are filled with potential and promise. And they are NOT OLD at 25 and just coming off their first seasons of AAA ball. They will get a serious shot. And there is room for both, rotation and bullpen, until opportunity comes knocking in some form.

[stringer bell]

I have a generally favorable opinion of the Santana signing because I really believe you can't have too much pitching.  It pretty much takes care of spending for other needs (outfielder w/ above average defense), but the position player side of the equation is in much better shape than the pitching side. 

 

It seems to me that something always happens and guys who weren't in the top six or seven to start the season make multiple starts.  The trick is what to do with all of the starters until the inevitable breakdowns occur.  Terry Ryan is a good GM (IMHO), so I think he can find a way to get all of the guys innings and work either in the starting rotation, the bullpen or Rochester.  Also, I think having a tradable commodity isn't a bad thing.

[Nick Nelson]

I don't get the worry.  Name one CONTENDING team that would be excited about the prospect of having to depend on May or Meyer to hold down a spot in the rotation, with the playoffs riding on it. Sure, one or both of them may reach that level. But neither yet has shown consistent command of multiple pitches. I for one am thrilled they won't be rushed to the majors until they're ready.

 

Well, see, this is just the problem. The Twins aren't a contending team right now and the playoffs are not riding on these youngsters, which would seemingly make this the perfect opportunity to let them take their knocks and learn the ropes. Pretty difficult to argue that May or Meyer isn't ready for a chance at this point.

 

But like I said, I'm not really sweating it. I agree with those who've said it's better to have too much depth than too little, considering how often the Twins have had to dig deep for starters in recent years, and I'm glad they're bringing in veterans who actually offer some ability outside of being able to simply throw innings (i.e. Correia).

[Mike Sixel]

I just want the 5 best to start here, and be here....and not have better pitchers in AAA because "rookies".

[jokin]

Well, see, this is just the problem. The Twins aren't a contending team right now and the playoffs are not riding on these youngsters, which would seemingly make this the perfect opportunity to let them take their knocks and learn the ropes. Pretty difficult to argue that May or Meyer isn't ready for a chance at this point.

 

But like I said, I'm not really sweating it. I agree with those who've said it's better to have too much depth than too little, considering how often the Twins have had to dig deep for starters in recent years, and I'm glad they're bringing in veterans who actually offer some ability outside of being able to simply throw innings (i.e. Correia).

 

As I posted elsewhere, with the signing of Santana, the Twins are now very near the point of never having to look at AAAA types or fringe starters being the back-end rotation guys- or first names on the depth chart.  Besides May and Meyer, who should get good looks for the last spot in the rotation and/or in long relief, a good first-half by Berrios, and he's also right in the mix for a spot by the end of July.  

[jokin]

I just want the 5 best to start here, and be here....and not have better pitchers in AAA because "rookies".

 

We can all dream the dream, can't we?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I was bought and sold that Span for Meyer was a fantastic deal. Then we traded Revere the following week. That was hailed as a good trade too, if a little risky. I would have thought Ryan was waiting for this moment, when we could all see those trades really start to pay off together!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

As I posted elsewhere, with the signing of Santana, the Twins are now very near the point of never having to look at AAAA types or fringe starters being the back-end rotation guys- or first names on the depth chart.  Besides May and Meyer, who should get good looks for the last spot in the rotation and/or in long relief, a good first-half by Berrios, and he's also right in the mix for a spot by the end of July.

 

Span and/or Revere were traded for a middle reliever?

[jokin]

Span and/or Revere were traded for a middle reliever?

 

I don't have a problem with either May or Meyer using that spot as a temporary steppingstone, but I get what you mean. It isn't easy to break into a starting rotation and stick, the Twins just made it harder for May, Meyer (and Berrios in the short run) to do so.  Hopefully at least one, and better all three, rise to the challenge and force the issue.  The competition for starting jobs has an additional benefit, as it has the potential to make Nolasco, Gibson and Milone better performers.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't get the worry.  Name one CONTENDING team that would be excited about the prospect of having to depend on May or Meyer to hold down a spot in the rotation, with the playoffs riding on it. 

 

Um, how about Kansas City and Yordano Ventura just last year?  (Who, by the way, had similar AAA numbers to Alex Meyer)

 

Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha perhaps?

 

At some point you need to allow your rookies to play and, you know, not be rookies any more.  I'm not saying that I necessarily think Santana was a bad signing because he blocks anyone, but the notion that this team shouldn't rely on young players right now flies in the face of the kind of rebuild that is being done.

 

If you know you aren't contending, that's PRECISELY when you should season young talent.  When, if ever, do these guys come up if you have to know with 100% certainty they are going to be good to great?  That seems like an impossible bar to reach in AAA given how subjective the idea of "readiness" is and how frequently the target gets moved.

[woolywoolhouse]

Just think if Vanimal and Pelfrey had both stuck, too... no one in the minors would be coming up! (Although we probably would have only signed Nolasco of Ricky/Hughes/Santana in that scenario...)

[nater79a]

It could get even more crowded later in the year depending on how Tyler Duffey, Jason Wheeler and Taylor Rogers do in the early part of the minor league season. They all have significant upside. Plus, Wheeler is already on the 40-man.

 

Also, let's not forget the extension talks that will be coming with Hughes leading up to the trade deadline.

[Willihammer]

I would like to have seen him promoted but don't know why anyone would think he would be eaten alive anymore than any other rookie since all reports say he has fantastic stuff and he led the league in strikeouts.

Well, when the "promote Meyer" club was banging their drum in mid-July last year, we were told his fastball command and changeup weren't up to snuff.