Article: Report: Twins And Ervin Santana Agree To Four-Year Deal

[nicksaviking]

Twins have 20 pitchers and 20 hitters on the 40-man, after adding rule-5 pitcher Graham.  I assume a pitcher will go, to make room. 

 

A trade in the offing?  (Duensing, Nolasco?) 

 

If not, someone is exposed to waivers - maybe Thompson?  With teams' 40-man rosters filling up, maybe it's easier to get someone cleared now.

 

All very excellent options.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Basically, if Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana are mediocre in the aggregate, the Twins pick up, what, 50-60 runs in differential over 2014?

 

That brings them close to .500 as a team, I think.

Career average Santana earned run prevention, replacing Correia + Pino innings (190), would save 21 earned runs.

 

Career average Nolasco earned run prevention, replacing Nolasco + Pelfrey innings (183), would save 28 earned runs.

 

Hughes is a little bit trickier to estimate.  His career average earned run prevention as a starter would be add roughly 15 runs over his 2014 performance.

 

That would be -35 earned runs allowed for those spots.

 

Leaving Gibson alone, that still leaves 33 starts which totaled a combined 152 IP and 122 earned runs in 2014, holy cow, those guys were bad!  I think that's where you can hopefully see the most improvement, just don't know who will get the nod to do it yet.

[Mike Sixel]

I am warming to the signing.....they are definitely not just waiting for the farm to produce.

[tobi0040]

Hopefully this takes pressure off Nolasco...........

[Brock Beauchamp]

Leaving Gibson alone, that still leaves 33 starts which totaled a combined 152 IP and 122 earned runs in 2014, holy cow, those guys were bad! 

Good god, man.

 

That's an ERA of 7.22 in a season where the median AL ERA was 3.82.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I am warming to the signing.....they are definitely not just waiting for the farm to produce.

To be fair, they already waited a few years.  This hopefully signals they aren't waiting much *more* for it to produce.

[Monkeypaws]

Nice - takes some of the pressure off Hughes. Sure looks better than a rotation where Diamond, Correia, and Pelfrey are your top 3.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Leaving Gibson alone, that still leaves 33 starts which totaled a combined 152 IP and 122 earned runs in 2014, holy cow, those guys were bad!  I think that's where you can hopefully see the most improvement, just don't know who will get the nod to do it yet.

Here's to hoping an improved Trevor May will take care of most of this.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Good god, man.

Yeah.  55 ERA+.

 

And that didn't even include Pelfrey, who I lumped in with Nolasco to bump his innings up.

 

Heck, you could replace that group with Nolasco's 2014 ERA or Pelfrey's 2013 ERA and cut 30+ earned runs.

[Steven Buhr]

I'm fine with this.

 

Did the Twins pay more for Santana than I think he's going to be worth over 4 years? Yeah, probably.

 

But that's the price an organization pays for failing to develop high-end in-house starting pitchers for an extended period. If you don't have GOOD young starters, you have to pay for them in the open market, either in big dollars or hard-to-swallow trades.

 

Two years ago, the Twins had zero quality starting pitchers. They signed two last year and now one this year. Only 1 of the 2 last year turned out well, while 1 underperformed miserably.

 

We don't know if Hughes will regress. We don't know if Nolasco will bounce back up to career-norm performance. And we don't know if Santana will continue to pitch as well as he has the past 2 years. But having 3 guys of that caliber is better than having 2. You've got just that much more room for error.

 

And all it's costing is money, which there is no shortage of in the Twins' coffers.

 

Gibson, May and Meyer, if healthy, will all get opportunities during the season. Berrios may, too. But if he doesn't, I'm not sure that would be a terrible thing, either.

[DaveW]

Great move, nothing to dislike about it at all to be honest.

I would rather have Santana at 54 million then Lester at 160 million, while Lester has more upside I don't think it is 100+ mil worth.

 

I would certainly rather have Santana+Hughes+Nolasco (sigh) at 110 million then Lester at 160 million.

[Rosterman]

Yeah, I thought Santana would get more. It must be the length of the contract that sold him.

 

We talk about May and Meyer (and Milone)...well, these guys will have a limited opportunity this spring and this season to show their stuff, otherwise they will be overtaken by the next young crowd of prospects (Stewart, Berrios). The Twins have bought more time to nurture the aging May and Meyer, but the rotation reamains pretty much the same for 2016 barring a meltdown or a mid-season trade.

 

We free up Hunter and Pelfrey salary next season right off the bat. Sano will show us what to do with Plouffe. Any of the tenders will also be gone for sure: Nunez, Duensing, Schafer. Catcher will be interesting to see what develops.

 

So the Twins do free up a little bit of money. Doesnt do much good if Santana, Bargas, Hicks, Arcia don't produce. And Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Pinto all need service time to establish themselves. The future looks promising, but remember that the other teams in the division are also making moves and actually staying the same or getting better, which doesn't speak well for the guys trying to get into the hunt.

[tobi0040]

I'm fine with this.

 

Did the Twins pay more for Santana than I think he's going to be worth over 4 years? Yeah, probably.

 

But that's the price an organization pays for failing to develop high-end in-house starting pitchers for an extended period. If you don't have GOOD young starters, you have to pay for them in the open market, either in big dollars or hard-to-swallow trades.

 

Two years ago, the Twins had zero quality starting pitchers. They signed two last year and now one this year. Only 1 of the 2 last year turned out well, while 1 underperformed miserably.

 

We don't know if Hughes will regress. We don't know if Nolasco will bounce back up to career-norm performance. And we don't know if Santana will continue to pitch as well as he has the past 2 years. But having 3 guys of that caliber is better than having 2. You've got just that much more room for error.

 

And all it's costing is money, which there is no shortage of in the Twins' coffers.

 

Gibson, May and Meyer, if healthy, will all get opportunities during the season. Berrios may, too. But if he doesn't, I'm not sure that would be a terrible thing, either.

 

I am also a bit relieved that the Twins did not trade key prospects like Sano, Buxton, Stewart, Meyer, etc. in order to trade for one of the pitchers out there with a year left, then extend them.

 

Our two assets our payroll flexibility and prospects.  Moving key prospects for veterans really blows both of those assets on one move.  Signing Ervin eats at some of the payroll flexibility, but we still have all our prospects and now we have a better staff.

Edited December 11, 2014 by tobi0040

[zchrz]

So if they are done

 

Hughes

Santana

Gibson

Nolasco

May/ Meyer

 

Graham

Oliveros/ Tonkin

Thielbar

Duensing

May/ Meyer

Fien

Perkins

[llonien20]

Have to like the deal just because of how dreadful our pitching was last season. Ervin will be an upgrade and will be a solid number two, expecting Hughes gets the opening day start after his quality season. I wanted the Twins to sign Santana a couple years ago, kudos to him for betting on himself to get a good deal, and kudos to the Twins for spending more money. Unfortunately, this move doesn't make the Twins a .500 team yet. Still a couple holes to fill, most likely to be filled in house IMO.

[Highabove]

Does anyone have a concern about  Santana's age?

He will be 35 at the end of his contract.

Edited December 11, 2014 by Highabove

[DaveW]

Also keep in mind: That if Nolasco reverts back to his career average he suddenly becomes a pretty easy piece to trade should the time come (even if the Twins have to eat a few million)

[DJL44]

So if they are done

 

Hughes

Santana

Gibson

Nolasco

May/ Meyer

 

Graham

Oliveros/ Tonkin

Thielbar

Duensing

May/ Meyer

Fien

Perkins

 

I think they put Milone in the bullpen and send May or Meyer to AAA to keep them stretched out as a starter.

[zchrz]

I think they put Milone in the bullpen and send May or Meyer to AAA to keep them stretched out as a starter.

 

I could definitely see that or Pelfry.  I don't want him anywhere near the rotation but I am mildly intrigued by what Big Pelf might be able to do coming out of the pen and just throwing that sinker as hard as he can.

[Willihammer]

This is the best news in a long time. At the same time, the Twins had to make a splash just to keep up with everyone else. Definitely a good start.

[bird]

I am warming to the signing.....they are definitely not just waiting for the farm to produce.

The right time in the cycle. I've been telling you this, young man.

[whydidnt]

The signing by itself is okay. Santana is an upgrade over the guys we've been running out there, but it should be noted, he hasn't been a model of consistency over his career, hopefully we won't end up with one of his bad years right off the bat like we did with Nolasco. Still,, I like him as a mid-rotation guy and there isn't anything wrong in the signing by itself.

 

I still really don't like the way the Twins manage their budget to the bottom or middle. Think about this, what if the Twins signed Shields for 5-$100M,traded two low-level prospects for Brandon Moss (1- 7M estimated in arbitration), and didn't sign Hunter.  

 

For just 3 million more we would have a superior, consistent starter that you could even call a #1, and a comparable bat that can play the OF, even if it's just as well as Hunter. If you are concerned about the $3M, then don't tender Duensing, who is overpaid at as low-leverage leftie who can't get RH hitters out. 

 

To me this is just another example of Ryan not really taking advantage of his budgeted dollars. I know Shields hasn't signed yet, but I would expect that 5-100 will probably land him at this point. 

 

Who would you rather have Shields and Moss or Santana and Hunter? For me it's not even close. I expect both Sheilds and Moss to outperform the guys the Twins signed. When you operate on a fairly tight, limited budget, it's all about allocating those costs where you get the most bang for the buck, and this is the 3rd year in a row the Twins seems intent on doing just the opposite.

[jay]

That would be -35 earned runs allowed for those spots.

 

Leaving Gibson alone, that still leaves 33 starts which totaled a combined 152 IP and 122 earned runs in 2014, holy cow, those guys were bad!  I think that's where you can hopefully see the most improvement, just don't know who will get the nod to do it yet.

 

I was hoping this would turn out a lot better than it did, but...

 

Steamer projections for 2015:

GS IP R ER

Hughes 30 192 89 83

Gibson 28 163 90 82

Santana 32 189 90 86

Nolasco 30 182 99 92

*May/Meyer/Pelfrey/Milone 42 250 135 125

Rotation Total 162 976 503 478

**Bullpen  459 205 190

Total  162 1435 708 668

 

*approximation

**fills remainder of 2014 team IP and same 2014 bullpen ERA

 

2014's team runs allowed?  730.

[SwainZag]

I could definitely see that or Pelfry.  I don't want him anywhere near the rotation but I am mildly intrigued by what Big Pelf might be able to do coming out of the pen and just throwing that sinker as hard as he can.

 

I am pretty intrigued by him in the pen as well.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm a bit disappointed that no one has made a joke that the Twins just paid $55m to Johan Santana.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also keep in mind: That if Nolasco reverts back to his career average he suddenly becomes a pretty easy piece to trade should the time come (even if the Twins have to eat a few million)

I don't know about that.  Nolasco was basically traded for peanuts in 2013, in the midst of the second-best season of his career, with no significant commitment and obviously before his 2014 happened (actually, the Marlins even sent along some of their international bonus pool allotment along with Nolasco in that trade).

[tobi0040]

I'm a bit disappointed that no one has made a joke that the Twins just paid $55m to Johan Santana.

 

I mentioned it on another thread....just that is actually his name.  I wish I would have put it your way though.

[tobi0040]

I was hoping this would turn out a lot better than it did, but...

 

Steamer projections for 2015:

GS IP R ER

Hughes 30 192 89 83

Gibson 28 163 90 82

Santana 32 189 90 86

Nolasco 30 182 99 92

*May/Meyer/Pelfrey/Milone 42 250 135 125

Rotation Total 162 976 503 478

**Bullpen  459 205 190

Total  162 1435 708 668

 

*approximation

**fills remainder of 2014 team IP and same 2014 bullpen ERA

 

2014's team runs allowed?  730.

 

When Steamer says 22 run improvement, at least double it.   Heck, they have Hughes at a 3.89 ERA?

 

Gibson's FIP last year was 3.80 and they have his ERA over 4.50 next year.

Edited December 11, 2014 by tobi0040

[nicksaviking]

I could definitely see that or Pelfry.  I don't want him anywhere near the rotation but I am mildly intrigued by what Big Pelf might be able to do coming out of the pen and just throwing that sinker as hard as he can.

 

Yeah, Pelfry in the pen could work.  Milone needs to stay away.  I don't care what hand you throw with, guys with low velocity and stuff that weak should not be coming into games with men on base.

[Willihammer]

I was hoping this would turn out a lot better than it did, but...

 

Steamer projections for 2015:

GS IP R ER

Hughes 30 192 89 83

Gibson 28 163 90 82

Santana 32 189 90 86

Nolasco 30 182 99 92

*May/Meyer/Pelfrey/Milone 42 250 135 125

Rotation Total 162 976 503 478

**Bullpen  459 205 190

Total  162 1435 708 668

 

*approximation

**fills remainder of 2014 team IP and same 2014 bullpen ERA

 

2014's team runs allowed?  730.

Your projection of the 5 spot + Steamer works out to a 4.42 ERA from the rotation, compared to 5.06 they got last year. Progress.

 

Personally I think Milone will displace Nolasco and May will get the nod in the 5 spot, and both will be better than the 5.00 ERA you estimated here.