Article: Report: Twins And Ervin Santana Agree To Four-Year Deal

[Seth Stohs]

Last night reports began to be circulated that the Twins and Ervin Santana had a deal. It proved premature. However, Yahoo's Jeff Passan reported just before 1:00 central time that the Twins and Santana were finalizing a four year deal worth around $54 million with a vesting option for a fifth year.Reports from San Diego, including those from Twins beat writers, are saying that it is official this time.

 

Santana has been one of the most durable starting pitchers in baseball through his dozen big league seasons. The Twins were very interested in him one year ago, but he chose a one-year deal with the Braves.

 

He has had a lot of success in the American League.

 

Signing Santana not only will cost the Twins $54 million dollars over the next four years (and longer and more dollars if his option year vests), but the Twins will lose their second-round pick in 2015.

 

With this signing, the Twins will have to make room on their 40-man roster as their Rule 5 selection of JR Graham pushed the roster back to 40.

 

The Twins 2015 starting rotation now consists of Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson and Ricky Nolasco. The fifth starter job should be up for grabs between Tommy Milone, Trevor May, Mike Pelfrey and Alex Meyer.

 

Santana will turn 32 years old on Friday.

 

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[James Richter]

Well, that's helpful!

[Winston Smith]

Staff could be decent with this. Hope Meyer is in the rotation, May and Milone in the pen. Pelfry going to work for MLB working on speeding up the game!

[nicksaviking]

We've got a lot of Santana threads going on now.  Can any be consolidated?

[Steve Lein]

I like it... For now.

 

I kind of see this as the start of more player movement.  Bunch of SP prospects knocking on the door, and now room for only one of them.

 

Could see a SP prospect dealt for help elsewhere.  Could see them hope Nolasco improves and flip him during the season to free up room. 

 

Nice to see the Twins getting the guy they wanted.

[chopper0080]

When you consider almost every FA starting pitcher is overpaid for, this is a pretty decent contract.  I like going about the SP spot with quantity.  Should keep us from having to dig too deep into our system this year.  I like the power arms that can potentially come out of the bullpen if May and Meyer struggle in spring training.  Gibson can stay a 3 or 4.  Santana is a fringe 2, but as hitting declines, pitchers are putting up better numbers.  Depending on where Meyer, May, Burdi, and Jake Reed end up out of spring, there could be some fire coming out of our bullpen.

[tobi0040]

When you consider almost every FA starting pitcher is overpaid for, this is a pretty decent contract.  I like going about the SP spot with quantity.  Should keep us from having to dig too deep into our system this year.  I like the power arms that can potentially come out of the bullpen if May and Meyer struggle in spring training.  Gibson can stay a 3 or 4.  Santana is a fringe 2, but as hitting declines, pitchers are putting up better numbers.  Depending on where Meyer, May, Burdi, and Jake Reed end up out of spring, there could be some fire coming out of our bullpen.

 

I would rather have Ervin than Liriano or McCarthy.  No doubt.  $13.5M a year is not bad for a guy that could easily be a #2 starter for at least the first two years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

the Twins will lose their 2nd round pick in 2015 to the Braves.

Minor nit: the Twins forfeit their second round pick (currently #44 overall), but it doesn't directly go to the Braves.  The Braves get a pick in a supplemental round between the first and second rounds, somewhere around #30 accounting for lost picks in the first round.

 

It would be a bigger distinction for teams that don't have protected (top 10) first round picks.  For example, the Mets forfeited their first rounder (#15 overall) to sign Cuddyer, but the pick gained by Colorado will actually be closer to #30.

 

We still have a special "competitive balance" pick after the second round, though -- roughly #71 overall.  Very cool page tracking those things here:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2015/order.jsp

[jay]

My only qualm about a deal with Santana is around my earlier point about opportunity cost. 

This deal brings the 2015 payroll into the range of $105M.  I think that's quite a bit higher than basically any of us were expecting.  That's great and all, but it would appear that adding other long-term commitments doesn't look likely with something like $95M committed for 2016 as well.  That probably leaves room to fill one hole next year where ever that might be, but it's hard to see tacking on a $20M+ ace.

 

Congrats to the Twins and Terry Ryan for aggressively seeking to improve what has been a dreadful rotation.

[ashbury]

Twins have 20 pitchers and 20 hitters on the 40-man, after adding rule-5 pitcher Graham.  I assume a pitcher will go, to make room. 

 

A trade in the offing?  (Duensing, Nolasco?) 

 

If not, someone is exposed to waivers - maybe Thompson?  With teams' 40-man rosters filling up, maybe it's easier to get someone cleared now.

[Dr. Evil]

Great news!

[Mike Sixel]

I'm neither for nor against this signing. I'm not sure he's all that good, but I am sure he's not bad (probably......). That's a step up. They also spent money to get better now, I like that part. I am a Meyer believer, so I hope they don't just keep waiting for some kind of "perfection" in AAA with him. 

 

Frankly, if they aren't bringing up Meyer right away, I'd trade him. May, Milone, Berrios in a few months.....plus others? If you aren't going to use Meyer this year, I'd rather they deal him than wait another year. And yes, I know pitchers get hurt....but they have a few holes to fill yet.

[Danchat]

I think this is a pretty good move. I like Santana - though I am afraid because 2014 Santana looks a ton like 2013 Nolasco... but that doesn't mean he'll regress like Nolasco did.

 

This is probably it for big FA moves. Our payroll doesn't have much room left, so if we do make any more moves, I'd find a CF.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As for Santana, did we offer this last year?  Our March offer to him was reportedly only 3/33.

[tobi0040]

My only qualm about a deal with Santana is around my earlier point about opportunity cost. 

This deal brings the 2015 payroll into the range of $105M.  I think that's quite a bit higher than basically any of us were expecting.  That's great and all, but it would appear that adding other long-term commitments doesn't look likely with something like $95M committed for 2016 as well.  That probably leaves room to fill one hole next year where ever that might be, but it's hard to see tacking on a $20M+ ace.

 

Congrats to the Twins and Terry Ryan for aggressively seeking to improve what has been a dreadful rotation.

 

Just curious how you get to $95M for 2015?   I have us likely losing $20M in Hunter, Pelfrey, and Plouffe (if traded).  I think you have other minor tweaks that could free up salary, notably in the bullpen as you cut guys like Duensing in favor of Burdi, Reed, etc.

 

I have us going to at least $85M as a starting point (before increases) and I would think a high point could be $115-$120M.  If they went to $115M in 2010 I would think another five million would be attainable five years later with increased MLB revenues and a better cable deal. 

Edited December 11, 2014 by tobi0040

[Seth Stohs]

Minor nit: the Twins forfeit their second round pick (currently #44 overall), but it doesn't directly go to the Braves.  The Braves get a pick in a supplemental round between the first and second rounds, somewhere around #30 accounting for lost picks in the first round.

 

 

Thank you! I'll update this.

[Brandon]

I thought Santana would get 15 or 16 million per year so I think we did real well to not only get our pitcher but at the price too. 

 

If you look at his expectations last year he expected a 5 year 75 million and got 1 year at 14.1 million + the 54 million guarantee on this one he came close at 68.1 million.  Does anyone know if there is a 1 million buyout on the option as I see on mlbtraderumors there is an update saying the contract is for 55 million guaranteed.

[jharaldson]

in regards to blocking people, I just don't see that being an issue.  Santana is effectively replacing Correia in the rotation so that is an upgrade.  Pino, May, Deduno, Pelfrey, Milone, Johnson, and Swarzak all got starts last year and they stink.  If May, Meyer, or Berrios are so good in the minors that they deserve a shot it isn't going to be Santana that blocks them, it is going to be Twins management like last year.  

 

We just got a good pitcher with a decent K% and the Twins broke the 100 million mark and proved the talk of giving up draft picks was more than hot air.  This is a ground-breaking signing.

Edited December 11, 2014 by jharaldson

[SarasotaBill]

Salaries most likely gone in 2016:

 

10M - Hunter

5M - Pelfrey

5M - Plouffe (trade to make room for Sano)

3M - Duensing

2M - Milone

1M - Nunez

[Otto von Ballpark]

Santana season averages: 188 IP, 1.7 rWAR, 2.2 fWAR

 

In the 6 seasons since his peak performance in 2008, he is averaging 196 IP, 1.4 rWAR, 1.7 fWAR.

 

Nolasco season averages, pre-2014: 188 IP, 1.5 rWAR, 2.9 fWAR

[jay]

$104M range for 2015 w/ Santana.

Subtract $18M free agents after 2015 (Hunter, Pelfrey, Duensing).

Add $10M for arb raises (probably closer to $15M with our current roster, so assuming a few non-tenders).

 

2016 payroll around $95M with the need to fill the free agent departures and non-tenders if the farm doesn't produce.  Really not a terrible position...

[Eephus]

Second round pick, schmeckond round pick. We need another low minors prospect like the Startrib website needs trolls.

[jharaldson]

The numbers are interesting on Santana vs Nolasco.  Spycake was accurate above and I did a 5 year comp and Nolasco was equal to or better in all numbers (K%, BB%, FIP, xFIP, WAR, ect...) except for the classics (ERA, IP).  

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=3830,3200

 

Many of the new metrics are great predictors but maybe Santana is a guy like Buehrle where they outperform those stats and is worth more than what it looks like they should be?

[MileHighTwinsFan]

A great and aggressive move.  Twins have proved that they are committed to fielding a rotation that will give them a chance to win every night.   We have three starters with proven major league credentials, a fourth young arm with dominant - if inconsistent stuff and a legitimate competition for a 5th spot between young arms and proven major league talent.  Not sure what more the fans could want from the team at this point.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

Santana season averages: 188 IP, 1.7 rWAR, 2.2 fWAR

 

In the 6 seasons since his peak performance in 2008, he is averaging 196 IP, 1.4 rWAR, 1.7 fWAR.

 

Nolasco season averages, pre-2014: 188 IP, 1.5 rWAR, 2.9 fWAR

Basically, if Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana are mediocre in the aggregate, the Twins pick up, what, 50-60 runs in differential over 2014?

 

That brings them close to .500 as a team, I think.

[Willihammer]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Giles Ferrell]

Basically, if Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana are mediocre in the aggregate, the Twins pick up, what, 50-60 runs in differential over 2014?

 

That brings them close to .500 as a team, I think.

Im cool with this

[Otto von Ballpark]

For those curious, if you remove the pitchers batting he faced last year, Santana would have roughly a 7.8 K/9 and 20.6 K%, both his highest season marks since 2008.

 

Also, although his ERA+ was 127 and 92 the past two seasons, I estimate his FIP adjusted for league and park would have been about 105 and 108, respectively, in ERA+ terms.

[Winston Smith]

Being mediocre is much better than being the worst! Baby steps.

[Halsey Hall]

So that's that.  It looks like TR wants us to be competitive this year.  I wonder if he's done?