Article: White Sox Winning Winter Meetings Through Day 1

[tobi0040]

Maybe we should be worried, at least a little.  Over the last two seasons, the Twins only have a winning record in the AL Central with the Sox.  Without the Sox being pretty bad, the Twins could easily have been looking at 100 loss seasons, in 2013, and maybe even 2014. It's hard to say for sure how much the Sox have improved, but there's little doubt that these moves have improved them, and improved their chances on taking the season series from the Twins.. Where do the Twins go to make up those assumed-won games that are now more problematic, and that padded their record a bit in 2013 and 2014?

 

Do you think it would be possible for a 73 win team to sign five players, adding $52.5M to next seasons payroll and not improve?  I mean they could have signed 4 Nolasco's and every one theoretically could drop off the career norms, but it would be extremely unlikely for that to happen.  Clearly they have improved.  But every single decision is risky, they are over-paying, and adding 30+ somethings, many coming off career years.  These are not the type of decisions that should scare us at all.

Edited December 16, 2014 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

Do you think it would be possible for a 73 win team to sign five players, adding $52.5M to next seasons payroll and not improve?  I mean they could have signed 4 Nolasco's and every one theoretically could drop off the career norms, but it would be extremely unlikely for that to happen.  Clearly they have improved.  But every single decision is risky, they are over-paying, and adding 30+ somethings, many coming off career years.  These are not the type of decisions that should scare us at all.

 

unlike signing Nolasco, Hunter, and Santana?

[tobi0040]

unlike signing Nolasco, Hunter, and Santana?

 

Well Hunter was signed to give pep talks and run over catchers.  I honestly don't think the Twins expect much, if any production out of him.  Of course they won't say that.

 

So Ervin and Nolasco, two pitchers who AVERAGE, not career year, who average 4.17 and 4.30 ERA's.  That only gets you to about $26M and clearly would improve the Twins.  Ervin has averaged 1.7 WAR per season, Nolasco 1.2.  So we have added 3 wins.  Halfway there. Still have $26M to spend.

 

If we get the 2008 Ricky 4.8 WAR and 2010 or 2011 Ervin at 3 WAR, we are really cruising.  Added 7.8 WAR. They are replacing negative WAR guys. Let's call it 10 wins with half the money still left.

Edited December 16, 2014 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

I thought the issue was the Sox were signing guys over 30?

[glunn]

Moderator note -- please make a greater effort to be respectful of people who have different point of view.  We are carefully monitoring this thread to keep it cordial.

[tobi0040]

I thought the issue was the Sox were signing guys over 30?

 

If you are pencilling in players at any age basec on their best season in most cases to sum up the WAR.  I should be able to at least pencil career averages on the other side of the ledger.  Age is part of the issue.  the other part is they are adding a ton of payroll and are not a contending team and basically paying them all based on peak production.

 

History has not been kind to these types of decisions and the scenario to 90 wins assumes they all pan out. On top of other guys currently on their team repeating great years and staying healthy.

Edited December 16, 2014 by tobi0040

[tobi0040]

Just one prediction from ESPN's Schoenfeld.  The comment at the end about raising the division flag relates to the title (the path towards a division title for each team. 

 

White Sox 78 wins (5 more wins).   Twins 76. 

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/53956/path-to-the-playoffs-al-central

[nicksaviking]

I thought the issue was the Sox were signing guys over 30?

 

I'm not a fan of their moves individually.  I guess if you're going to go for it, you might as well not half ass it though. The White Sox attempted to fix most of their major holes, including getting a starting pitcher and corner outfielder, both of whom are better players than the Twins signed.  I don't think it will work out for them, but at least no deals were longer than three years. 

[big dog]

Whoa!  The Sox just signed Brad Penney!!!  Start printing playoff tickets!

 

As a long-time Chicago-area resident, I just don't understand them.  They always seem to be fine-tuning to make sure they end up in second or third place, except when everything broke right and they won the Series.  They hang on to players for puzzling reasons, they'll empty their farm system at the drop of a hat, they are always kind of old...I never feel like they know what they are doing, they just cast about for ideas.  I don't think Ventura's much of a manager, but he's a Reinsdorf favorite so he's probably here for life, just like their goofball broadcasters.  It feels kind of pleasantly dysfunctional, sort of like the Cubs were but without the lovable loser stuff.  Perhaps their goal was to always have a better record than the Cubs.  Now it might not happen, so the new plan is Buy Everyone.  Including Brad Penney.

[TheLeviathan]

Whoa!  The Sox just signed Brad Penney!!!  Start printing playoff tickets!

 

As a long-time Chicago-area resident, I just don't understand them.  They always seem to be fine-tuning to make sure they end up in second or third place, except when everything broke right and they won the Series.  They hang on to players for puzzling reasons, they'll empty their farm system at the drop of a hat, they are always kind of old...I never feel like they know what they are doing, they just cast about for ideas.  I don't think Ventura's much of a manager, but he's a Reinsdorf favorite so he's probably here for life, just like their goofball broadcasters.  It feels kind of pleasantly dysfunctional, sort of like the Cubs were but without the lovable loser stuff.  Perhaps their goal was to always have a better record than the Cubs.  Now it might not happen, so the new plan is Buy Everyone.  Including Brad Penney.

 

This is a reflection of how every Sox fan I know feels about their team.  The "grass is greener on the other side" version some here are longing for is precisely that.  Not that I don't envy and like many of the things they do, it just seems sexier to us because it's the opposite of what we do.

[Kwak]

I am puzzled by the attacks on the WS.  They spent to add major leaguers to a 4th place team that was struggling in ticket sales (and likely media ratings) to provide more entertainment to their fans--with the expectation that "they will return to the fold."  Is the carping due to the lame effort by the Twins FO to improve their product?--and thus plain jealousy?  Because whatever amount of money the WS spend is irrelevant to Twins fans.

 

As an aside I wonder how much the WS activity since the Winter Meetings affected the Twins decision to sign Santana?  I'm thinking the effect on the FO was large.

[big dog]

I am puzzled by the attacks on the WS.  They spent to add major leaguers to a 4th place team that was struggling in ticket sales (and likely media ratings) to provide more entertainment to their fans--with the expectation that "they will return to the fold."  Is the carping due to the lame effort by the Twins FO to improve their product?--and thus plain jealousy?  Because whatever amount of money the WS spend is irrelevant to Twins fans.

 

As an aside I wonder how much the WS activity since the Winter Meetings affected the Twins decision to sign Santana?  I'm thinking the effect on the FO was large.

 

I'm personally not attacking the Sox (though the best days of summer are the days the Twins beat them).  I just think that whatever they do isn't likely to work out, partly because they will probably do the opposite thing at the worst possible time.  All these moves make some sense to me, more or less, and I'm impressed by what they've gotten, but I just feel confident that they will still find a way to screw it up before the season is over.

 

It's funny, as a Twins fan living in the area for 25 years, I just don't know many people who care about the Sox.  Even going to a game there I'm more likely to run into the young professionals there to drink than people who actually care about the team.  The TV ratings are completely in the toilet, and this probably won't help.  Despite winning the Series in the very recent past, there's just no passion.  Maybe there is on the south side, but I don't get that sense.  Even Chris Sale doesn't draw a big crowd.

 

Still...Brad Penney??

[Brandon]

Comparing what Chicago has done to what the Twins have done....LaRoche replaces Adam Dunn so not a big upgrade.  The other signings are because Smardjiza knock out their worst starter like Santana does for us only our worst starter was way worse than theirs so Santana is a bigger upgrade for us then Smardijiza was for Chicago.  Cabrera has 70 more OBP then the OF he replaces which is huge cause they really need OBP guys and Hunter basically replaces the offense of Willingham and Kubel with slight improvement.  Chicago's bullpen was a disaster last year so that is really improved for next year.  Chicago doesn't have much depth and they are reconstructed as a win now team.  They have a terrible farm system and IMO are in danger of becoming what the Pirates were for a long time a team close to .500 with no where to go.

[jokin]

Comparing what Chicago has done to what the Twins have done....LaRoche replaces Adam Dunn so not a big upgrade. 

 

Huh?

 

Dunn 2014 WAR 0.3

LaRoche 2014 WAR 2.2

[jay]

Huh?

 

Dunn 2014 WAR 0.3

LaRoche 2014 WAR 2.2

I'm avoiding the rest of this thread, but have to point out that is a poor and lazy utilization of WAR.

 

Edit: LaRoche appears to be taking over Dunn's spot as primary DH / occasional 1B. Simply comparing their offense would be more appropriate.

Last 3 seasons, average wRC+:

Dunn = 111

LaRoche = 118

Edited December 17, 2014 by jay

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm avoiding the rest of this thread, but have to point out that is a poor and lazy utilization of WAR.

How so?  It was short, I suppose, but everyone and his dog knows the Dunn has been a pretty poor player lately.

 

If you want to be more verbose, the original poster's Dunn vs LaRoche comparison wasn't really accurate either -- LaRoche will likely be replacing Abreu at first base, with Abreu replacing Dunn at DH.

[TheLeviathan]

Heh, I think there was a thread not long ago about how often WAR is misused.  This thread is wonderful evidence of that.

[jokin]

I'm avoiding the rest of this thread, but have to point out that is a poor and lazy utilization of WAR.

 

Edit: LaRoche appears to be taking over Dunn's spot as primary DH / occasional 1B. Simply comparing their offense would be more appropriate.

Last 3 seasons, average wRC+:

Dunn = 111

LaRoche = 118

 

A team going for it in the big way the Sox are will bow to the inevitable and end up giving LaRoche at least half of the starts at First Base, and likely more... which is how I'm basing my WAR evaluation... LaRoche is a far better defender than Abreu.  LaRoche desperately wants to play in the field,  I'm betting that the facts and his pressing the issue results in him ending up with more games than Abreu and plays at least 100 in the field, which was the essential point on why WAR is extremely relevant when comparing Dunn, Abreu and LaRoche.

Edited December 17, 2014 by jokin

[Squirrel]

Since this thread has pretty much ceased to be a Twins discussion and is primarily a Sox discussion, it has been relocated to a more appropriate forum.

[jokin]

Heh, I think there was a thread not long ago about how often WAR is misused.  This thread is wonderful evidence of that.

 

Only if you fail to consider all of the assumptions in coming to the conclusion.

[TheLeviathan]

Only if you fail to consider all of the assumptions in coming to the conclusion.

 

I'm making no claim on the point.  I like the Laroche signing and think he'll be a good player for them.

 

That doesn't change the fact that comparing one year of WAR data for two players is just a fundamental misuse of the stat.

Edited December 17, 2014 by TheLeviathan

[jokin]

I'm making no claim on the point.  I like the Laroche signing and think he'll be a good player for them.

 

That doesn't change the fact that comparing one year of WAR data for two players is just a fundamental misuse of the stat.

 

Fundamentally speaking, LaRoche has been a much better player over the last 3 years, in the field and at the plate...

 

Adam Dunn oWAR for the last 3 years--- 1.9

Adam LaRoche oWAR for the last 3 years-- 6.3

[Otto von Ballpark]

That doesn't change the fact that comparing one year of WAR data for two players is just a fundamental misuse of the stat.

Feel free to expand the sample, it will not tell you that Dunn is any better.  The poster was quite obviously using shorthand, not "fundamentally misusing the stat."

[TheLeviathan]

Fundamentally speaking, LaRoche has been a much better player over the last 3 years, in the field and at the plate...

 

Adam Dunn oWAR for the last 3 years--- 1.9

Adam LaRoche oWAR for the last 3 years-- 6.3

 

There you go, now you used the stat correctly.  And I agree, Laroche is a better player.  I didn't need convincing, I just found it amusing to see WAR used incorrectly again after being reassured everyone knows how to use it.

 

It's not good short-hand.  In fact, WAR is AWFUL short-hand.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's not good short-hand.  In fact, WAR is AWFUL short-hand.

In this case, though, the shorthand felt so obvious.  It seemed pretty clear that the poster was NOT hiding/ignoring earlier WAR totals, just using the 2014 ones because they were pretty representative of earlier ones (if you have any familiarity with Dunn, and Twins fans should, he's been responsible for great gusts of wind across our state the past few years ).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fundamentally speaking, LaRoche has been a much better player over the last 3 years, in the field and at the plate...

 

Adam Dunn oWAR for the last 3 years--- 1.9

Adam LaRoche oWAR for the last 3 years-- 6.3

oWAR includes the positional adjustment, which probably isn't appropriate here.

 

Rbat would be what you want (or wRC+, or even OPS+).  Although I agree Rfield is probably a worthy consideration here too, as bad as Dunn was in that regard even in limited play (and as poor as Abreu was in that mark last year).

[jokin]

oWAR includes the positional adjustment, which probably isn't appropriate here.

 

Rbat would be what you want (or wRC+, or even OPS+).  Although I agree Rfield is probably a worthy consideration here too, as bad as Dunn was in that regard even in limited play (and as poor as Abreu was in that mark last year).

 

And that's the point I was trying to make originally to Brandon (shorthand version)---> LaRoche for Dunn (and replacing Abreu for a significant chunk of defensive reps), is not a wash, but a pretty decent upgrade.

[JB_Iowa]

You all have just answered the question:  Why do some posters refuse to ever use stats in posts?

[Mike Sixel]

The Sox were bad.

 

They spent money, and marginal prospects to get better.

 

Somehow, that's a bad thing.

[tobi0040]

The Sox were bad.

 

They spent money, and marginal prospects to get better.

 

Somehow, that's a bad thing.

 

My point was that the sky is not falling.  I would not trade franchises with them right now.