Article: White Sox Winning Winter Meetings Through Day 1

[tobi0040]

It's odd; each deal on its own feels like a questionable call, yet when they are all put together, I can't shake the feeling that the White Sox really improved their roster for the near future (3 or more seasons).

 

I agree that I don't think the Twins would have benefitted from making these deals themselves (though I think I could live with a 3 year deal for Melky compared to the 5-6 years he was rumored to be asking for...).

 

I will feel a lot better if the Twins add one more defense first outfielder (or if Rosario breaks out in 2015 and ends up playing in the field a lot with great defense).

 

Yeah...one year of Shark, LaRoche, Melky, Duke, and prospects does not seem worth $40M a year.  Any time you spend $40M your team should improve. 

[Mike Sixel]

Uh.....you don't think adding those guys makes the Sox better? Wow.

[tobi0040]

Uh.....you don't think adding those guys makes the Sox better? Wow.

 

 "any time you spend $40M a year your team should get better".

 

What I meant by that is they have gotten better.  It would be hard to spend $40M and not get better. But I don't think they got $40M better.  That is all.

[Otto von Ballpark]

White Sox are in a very different position than the Twins. Similar records the last two years, but the White Sox have a stud startig pitcher and hitter in their prime, plus a couple borderline stars, all controlled relatively inexpensively for 4-6 years.

 

I would not expect them to make similar moves as the Twins.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would not have been thrilled if the Twins made this signing. $13M a year for ages 30-33 corner OF. He is already a negative defensive player (-2.1 dWAR the last two years). And I don't think his offense offsets that. Career OPS + of 103.

To be fair, dWAR includes a positional adjustment, not sure if that is really appropriate. He's actually just 6 runs below average defensively for his position each of the last two years (about -0.6 WAR per year). By comparison, Hunter is 14 runs below average each year, and of course turning 40 midseason...

 

Also quoting career OPS+ doesn't seem quite right for a late bloomer who debuted at age 20. Cabrera has a 124 OPS+ over the last 4 years. At the same age, Hunter had a career OPS+ of 100 weighted down by early career struggles too -- it jumps to 108 just considering age 26-29 like Cabrera. Which figure was more instructive going forward?

[tobi0040]

To be fair, dWAR includes a positional adjustment, not sure if that is really appropriate. He's actually just 6 runs below average defensively for his position each of the last two years (about -0.6 WAR per year). By comparison, Hunter is 14 runs below average each year, and of course turning 40 midseason...

 

Also quoting career OPS+ doesn't seem quite right for a late bloomer who debuted at age 20. Cabrera has a 124 OPS+ over the last 4 years. At the same age, Hunter had a career OPS+ of 100 weighted down by early career struggles too -- it jumps to 108 just considering age 26-29 like Cabrera. Which figure was more instructive going forward?

 

Well, I don't know that some of your comps are great either.

 

Melky's four year stretch with the 124 OPS + includes a season at 157 in which he tested positive for performance enhancing drugs.   The three last seasons in which he did not fail a drug test average to about 111 and frankly, none of us know that he wasn't using in 2011 when he had a 121 OPS +, well above his career averages up to that point.

 

And I don't get the Hunter/Melky comp.  One was paid $10M for one season so he could give pep talks and help the development of the future. I think the Twins view that as an investment in the 2016-2020 Twins.  Melky was paid $42M over three years to help them win games.

 

I guess the broader point for me is if the Twins were a .500 team and wanted to go out in free agency and ramp up for a world series win, I hope they would get more for what the White Sox have spent this off-season.  If they re-sign Shark at $20M a year, they would have increased payroll $50M and had Shark, Duke, LaRoche, and Melky Cabrera to show for it, and lost some prospects in the process.  Yeah, they are better. You can't question that, but I think they could have spent that money in a smarter fashion.

Edited December 15, 2014 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sorry, didn't mean it to sound like I was comparing Cabrera and Hunter. Just a point of reference for the defensive stats, and the effects of early career struggles on career stats of 29 year olds.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Would be curious to hear how you think the White Sox could have better spent ~$40 mil for 2015.

[tobi0040]

Would be curious to hear how you think the White Sox could have better spent ~$40 mil for 2015.

 

Well, that is a tough response because the free agency period is only about half over.  And I don't know that free agency alone appcoach if the best one.

 

But here are just a few comments regarding the signings.

 

Adam LaRoche - His career OPS + is 114 and he is 35 years old.  They paid him more than the A's paid a 28 year old Billy Butler, who has a career OPS + of 119.  But I am not sure I would spend $12.5M on a 35 year old DH with a career OPS of .811.  I would think you could find that production via a platoon rather easily.

 

Duke - This was a buy high, lots of risk.  One guy that has done it for a longer period of time is Neshek.  I would rather have given him 2/13 over 3/15 to Duke. Relievers can be good/bad so frequently that I would prefer shorter deals. But Neskek's ERA+ has been 288, 117, and 197 the last three years.  His career ERA is 2.78.  I would have gone that route.  Such a small sample size to go off of with a reliever. Duke gave up 16 ER last year, but had another 3 unearned runs.  13 IP in 2012.  31 in 2013 and 58 last year.  Extremely unimpressive career numbers, 4.17 ERA, 1.45 WHIP. Almost 11 hits per 9, 5.0 k per 9

 

Jeff S. - He has not been good for that long. His career ERA+ is remarkably average at 103.  I just think now they are married to the guy and are going to hand him $100M. 

 

Melky - 30+ year old outfielder that is a negative player defensively and league average or so offensively by his career numbers.   this deal looks like the Victorino deal, but Victorino actually has slightly better offensive numbers.  They got the same contract and Shane and he could be had for a can of pepsi right now.

Edited December 15, 2014 by tobi0040

[Kwak]

As a fan, (especially those who are WS fans-not me!--whether they spent $40 MM or whatever or these guys is irrelevant.  What really matters is will the WS fans be better entertained for what they spend for entertainment?  The $40MM is the owner's money and not the fan's money.

[jokin]

Well, that is a tough response because the free agency period is only about half over.  And I don't know that free agency alone appcoach if the best one.

 

But here are just a few comments regarding the signings.

 

Adam LaRoche - His career OPS + is 114 and he is 35 years old.  They paid him more than the A's paid a 28 year old Billy Butler, who has a career OPS + of 119.  But I am not sure I would spend $12.5M on a 35 year old DH with a career OPS of .811.  I would think you could find that production via a platoon rather easily.

 

Duke - This was a buy high, lots of risk

 

Jeff S. - He has not been good for that long. His career ERA+ is remarkably average at 103.  I just think now they are married to the guy and are going to hand him $100M. 

 

Melky - 30+ year old outfielder that is a negative player defensively and league average or so offensively by his career numbers.   this deal looks like the Victorino deal, but Victorino actually has slightly better offensive numbers.  They got the same contract and Shane and he could be had for a can of pepsi right now.

 

Using career numbers isn't helpful in this case, Melky is vastly above league average in his last 4 years. To reiterate, Melky has a .351 OBP over the last 4 years, and also had a .351 OBP last year.  Victorino is now 34, Melky just turned 30. Victorino's deal with Boston was made at age 32- which would be the last year of Melky's 3-year contract, not age 30, as it is now.

 

Victorino's numbers at the same point in time as Melky, that is, from age 26-29, are inferior to Melky's.    

 

Victorino 26-29  .281/.346/.437/.793  wRC+ 106

Cabrera 26-29  .309/.351/.458/.810 wRC+ 122

 

And then Victorino went out and had his peak WAR years at age 30 and 32 (5.4 and 5.8), with a 2.6 WAR year in-between.  Do you think the White Sox didn't do their homework?  Melky's career numbers in US Cellular-  

 

.336/.366/.591/.957  

Edited December 15, 2014 by jokin

[tobi0040]

I somehow forgot the 50 million they gave a closer.

 

So next years payroll could have 60m locked into five players and one potentially bein a star (shark) at a non bullpen position. (Assumes 20m annual extension)

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, that is a tough response because the free agency period is only about half over.  And I don't know that free agency alone appcoach if the best one.

 

But here are just a few comments regarding the signings.Adam LaRoche - His career OPS + is 114 and he is 35 years old.  They paid him more than the A's paid a 28 year old Billy Butler, who has a career OPS + of 119.  But I am not sure I would spend $12.5M on a 35 year old DH with a career OPS of .811.  I would think you could find that production via a platoon rather easily.

 

Duke - This was a buy high, lots of risk.  One guy that has done it for a longer period of time is Neshek.  I would rather have given him 2/13 over 3/15 to Duke. Relievers can be good/bad so frequently that I would prefer shorter deals. But Neskek's ERA+ has been 288, 117, and 197 the last three years.  His career ERA is 2.78.  I would have gone that route.  Such a small sample size to go off of with a reliever. Duke gave up 16 ER last year, but had another 3 unearned runs.  13 IP in 2012.  31 in 2013 and 58 last year.  Extremely unimpressive career numbers, 4.17 ERA, 1.45 WHIP. Almost 11 hits per 9, 5.0 k per 9

 

Jeff S. - He has not been good for that long. His career ERA+ is remarkably average at 103.  I just think now they are married to the guy and are going to hand him $100M.

 

Melky - 30+ year old outfielder that is a negative player defensively and league average or so offensively by his career numbers.   this deal looks like the Victorino deal, but Victorino actually has slightly better offensive numbers.  They got the same contract and Shane and he could be had for a can of pepsi right now.

If your biggest issues with their moves are "They could have had Butler instead of LaRoche", "Zach Duke used to be a mediocre starter", "They might give a bad contract to Samardzija later", and "Shane Victorino got injured at age 33" (one year beyond Cabrera's contract), I think you're picking nits.

 

Nobody says they got perfect players, or even made perfect moves, but they've spent ~$40 mil for 2015 about as well as they could have so far, if you ask me.

 

Obviously could change if they give a bad contract to Samardzija, or if they don't adequately address their remaining positions of need.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I somehow forgot the 50 million they gave a closer.

 

So next years payroll could have 60m locked into five players and one potentially bein a star (shark) at a non bullpen position. (Assumes 20m annual extension)

First of all, you keep assuming a Samardzija extension where none has been made so far.

 

Second, please tell me how they get multiple "stars" at similar cost (years/dollars/players) that will make their team notably better.

[tobi0040]

29m to two relievers and a average Dh is about as good as you could spend?

 

I guess it is as much where they spent as it is who they got.

[jokin]

 

Adam LaRoche - His career OPS + is 114 and he is 35 years old.  They paid him more than the A's paid a 28 year old Billy Butler, who has a career OPS + of 119.  But I am not sure I would spend $12.5M on a 35 year old DH with a career OPS of .811.  I would think you could find that production via a platoon rather easily.

 

 

 

 

I'm guessing that LaRoche is going to play a ton of games, probably the majority of his games at 1st, not DH.  The Sox didn't need a platoon player, they needed an experienced LH bat to break up their heavy RH tendency in the middle of the lineup.  LaRoche also has 4 years of postseason experience.  Did they overpay?  Maybe a little, but he is by far the best FA option that met all of the criteria the Sox needed, plus it's only a 2 year deal, and he definitely isn't an Adam Dunn rerun.

[Dman]

29m to two relievers and a average Dh is about as good as you could spend?

 

I guess it is as much where they spent as it is who they got.

 

I agree in theory with what you are saying but holistically I think the Sox addressed some pressing needs.  Their starters typically gave them the lead going into to 6th inning but their bullpen failed far too often last year.  Even though they over payed they had to address that to get better and they did.  Their GM says they are not done addressing the bullpen.  

 

They have two young very good starting pitchers adding a third makes their rotation as good as any in the division.  They didn't give up the farm and Smarzda could be a bridge to Rodon or maybe they will sign or extend him as well.  I think they have flexibility there and they still have a very good shortstop and I think 2nd baseman in the minors for infield depth.

 

They lacked clutch hitting last year and seemed to struggle to score runs.  They went out and got a guy who can get on base and hits extremely well.

 

Put it all together and they have addressed a lot of the things they needed to become competitive in the division.  They lack depth in areas but they excel in others.  I think those moves have the potential to make then a very competitive team.  

 

Could they have done better for less.  Sure I think they could have but they had to outbid other teams to get what they wanted and overpay they did.  I don't agree with the money they gave to the closer that is really my only quibble with the moves.  The rest seem solid and address significant needs.  FWIW I think they did a nice job.

[jokin]

I somehow forgot the 50 million they gave a closer.

 

So next years payroll could have 60m locked into five players and one potentially bein a star (shark) at a non bullpen position. (Assumes 20m annual extension)

 

It was 4 years/$46M for Roberston. And yet with all of that money, their payroll has only gone up, net-net around $25M.  From around $90M to $115M.  

 

Melky doesn't have the potential to be a star?   We may have different interpretations, but anybody that gets an 8-figure AAV contract is, would seem to be, by definition, a baseball star.

 

Shark is likely worth the extension- that's the going rate for #1s and #2s, the Shark is very durable.  And in IMO, you worry far too much about the $60M on five players- the vast majority of their players are cost controlled, rising players.  Ramirez will likely come off the books soon, maybe after this year. The Sox went out over the last two years and bought a set of complementary quality players to build around Chris Sale in his peak production, late-20s seasons (He's a FA in 2018).  You have to strike while the iron is hot, it costs money to do so.

Edited December 16, 2014 by jokin

[jokin]

29m to two relievers and a average Dh is about as good as you could spend?

 

I guess it is as much where they spent as it is who they got.

 

I think you are dismissing the costs to getting better via Free Agency- if they can be absorbed without crippling the team long-term, what's the big deal?... and you're minimiizing the quality of Robertson and... LaRoche- he isn't just a DH! "Average"?... his .817 OPS was 8th best among 1st baseman in 2014.  That .817 OPS would have been 4th best among qualified DH's.

 

Robertson has been really, really good over the last four years, pitching in the NY pressure cooker, and being asked to take the place of the greatest closer of all time.  

 

4-year stats-  K/9 12.35 K% 34.0% WHIP 1.10 BA .200  ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA 2.20/2.40/2.46/2.20  ERA+ 220

Edited December 15, 2014 by jokin

[tobi0040]

Using career numbers isn't helpful in this case, Melky is vastly above league average in his last 4 years. To reiterate, Melky has a .351 OBP over the last 4 years, and also had a .351 OBP last year.  Victorino is now 34, Melky just turned 30. Victorino's deal with Boston was made at age 32- which would be the last year of Melky's 3-year contract, not age 30, as it is now.

 

Victorino's numbers at the same point in time as Melky, that is, from age 26-29, are inferior to Melky's.    

 

Victorino 26-29  .281/.346/.437/.793  wRC+ 106

Cabrera 26-29  .309/.351/.458/.810 wRC+ 122

 

And then Victorino went out and had his peak WAR years at age 30 and 32 (5.4 and 5.8), with a 2.6 WAR year in-between.  Do you think the White Sox didn't do their homework?  Melky's career numbers in US Cellular-  

 

.336/.366/.591/.957  

 

On the great four years, they are skewed by the year he used PED's (157 OPS+).  The year prior, he was in the mid 120's, well above his career norms. He could have been using.  If you remove just his 157 year he falls to 111. No longer vastly above league averages. Factor in negative defense, no I don't think he will be a star, especially from 30-33.

 

He has only played 34 games at US Cellular.  Seems like a small sample

Edited December 16, 2014 by tobi0040

[tobi0040]

I think you are dismissing the costs to getting better via Free Agency- if they can be absorbed without crippling the team long-term, what's the big deal?... and you're minimiizing the quality of Robertson and... LaRoche- he isn't just a DH! "Average"?... his .817 OPS was 8th best among 1st baseman in 2014.  That .817 OPS would have been 4th best among qualified DH's.

 

Robertson has been really, really good over the last four years, pitching in the NY pressure cooker, and being asked to take the place of the greatest closer of all time.  

 

4-year stats-  K/9 12.35 K% 34.0% WHIP 1.10 BA .200  ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA 2.20/2.40/2.46/2.20  ERA+ 220

 

I know you overpay in free agency.  That was half the argument I was trying to make.  FA is the last place I would want to get a closer, for example. Not a great place to get a DH.  The Twins got a dominant one in house and signed to a team friendly deal with many options. I believe we could have two other good closers from the 2nd and I believe 4th round (Burdi and Reed).  I also philosophically don't get how a closer is worth $12M and that admittedly plays into my opinion.  $12M at 60 IP is saying that a top 10 starter that goes 220 IP is worth $44M (both are 200k an inning). I am of the belief that you can lose the game by a bad 4th inning the same as a bad 9th.

 

If you take the qualifiers out, LaRoche was the 13th best offensive 1B.  Defensively he had a dWAR of -1 almost exclusively at 1B.  That is a very bad defensive 1B.  In his first year, Mauer was only a -.2 and my guess is Mauer would have been positive in the second half. That sounds about like league average to me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If you take the qualifiers out, LaRoche was the 13th best offensive 1B. Defensively he had a dWAR of -1 almost exclusively at 1B. That is a very bad defensive 1B. In his first year, Mauer was only a -.2 and my guess is Mauer would have been positive in the second half. That sounds about like league average to me.

I am only going to say this once more: B-Ref dWAR includes the positional adjustment. Look at Rfield instead. LaRoche was exactly a league average defensive 1B last year -- the negative part of his dWAR is simply the WAR penalty applied to all first basemen.

[jokin]

I am only going to say this once more: B-Ref dWAR includes the positional adjustment. Look at Rfield instead. LaRoche was exactly a league average defensive 1B last year -- the negative part of his dWAR is simply the WAR penalty applied to all first basemen.

 

Thankyou.  By all accounts from the experts, LaRoche is a very competent 1st baseman.

[jokin]

On the great four years, they are skewed by the year he used PED's (157 OPS+).  The year prior, he was in the mid 120's, well above his career norms. He could have been using.  If you remove just his 157 year he falls to 111. No longer vastly above league averages. Factor in negative defense, no I don't think he will be a star, especially from 30-33.

 

He has only played 34 games at US Cellular.  Seems like a small sample

 

Melky had better numbers this year than "the year prior" that you refer to (and  a better ISO).  You may as well argue that he's used PEDs in 2014, as well.  And then you used Viciedo as an example why Cabrera would fail, even though Viciedo had his two best years between 30 and 32- the exact time frame for Melky's contract with the White Sox.

 

The contract is from ages 30-32, not 33. Melky has the highest BA among LF over the last 4 years and the 4th most hits. Defensively, he also has the 3rd highest ARM rating, both last year, and over the last 4 yeas, for LFers. 147 PAs at US Cellular, not enough to say he'll duplicate those career numbers, but more than enough to suggest that he tends to do well there. Jose Bautista obviously likes Target Field, and he has less than half of the PAs that Melky has at US Cellular- his numbers in Chicago played a part in Hahn offering Melky the contract.

Edited December 16, 2014 by jokin

[jay]

I wish the Twins would just be like the White Sox. Or was it the Cardinals?

 

Le sigh...

[tobi0040]

Jokin,

 

I would suggest Bautista and Cabrera doing well against the white sox and twins over the last 10 years has more to do with the pitching Than the stadium.

 

In 2012 he failed a drug test and had an ops plus 30 points higher than the other three in that sample. I am not sure where the disagreement lies there.

[jokin]

Jokin,

 

I would suggest Bautista and Cabrera doing well against the white sox and twins over the last 10 years has more to do with the pitching Than the stadium.

 

In 2012 he failed a drug test and had an ops plus 30 points higher than the other three in that sample. I am not sure where the disagreement lies there.

 

No one else has come close to Bautista in TF, except for Thome.

 

As far as the White Sox pitching and Melky,  here's a link to the MLB team pitching numbers, since Melky entered the major leagues in 2005, or, the last 10 years... note that the White Sox are rated the #1MLB pitching team in terms of WAR over the last 10 years, so it's easy to conjecture that Rick Hahn surmised that the White Sox pitching has less to do with Melky's hitting prowess at US Cellular than the stadium itself:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2005&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Edited December 16, 2014 by jokin

[jokin]

 

If you take the qualifiers out, LaRoche was the 13th best offensive 1B. 

 

At 1B== 4th in OPS.  8th in wOBA. 9th in wRC+.  And look for LaRoche's HR totals to go up in 2015, balls fly out of US Cellular at a 45% higher rate than Nationals Park (which was the 2nd lowest park in terms of HR output).

Edited December 16, 2014 by jokin

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wish the Twins would just be like the White Sox. Or was it the Cardinals?

 

Le sigh...

I don't think anyone here is making that argument, at least not recently in the discussion.  The claim being debated is tobi's "I think they [the White Sox] could have spent that money in a smarter fashion."

 

I and others frankly admitted these moves wouldn't make sense for the Twins.  But that doesn't mean that in total they are bad moves, or notably sub-optimal moves, for the White Sox.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Semi-related thought:

 

I really wanted the Twins to sign Melky Cabrera.

 

However, once the Twins signed Hunter, adding Cabrera on top of Hunter's signing would be a bad move. Same thing if the Twins went after Alex Rios.

 

I think the Twins could still add Colby Rasmus or make a trade for a good defensive CF, but once they signed Hunter, the other plodding corner outfield types rightfully fell off the Twins' radar.

 

I really wanted the Twins to go after Brett Anderson and Justin Masterson on one year deals.

 

Once the Twins added Ervin Santana (and had already missed on Masterson) I was glad they didn't add Anderson on top of that.

 

All of the White Sox signings would have been bad additions for the Twins, but in aggregate they will improve the playoff hopes of the White Sox.