Article: White Sox Winning Winter Meetings Through Day 1

[jokin]

 

 

The Twins bungle plenty. So do other teams. Abreu is not an example of a bungle, that's all.

 

We disagree, it was a big bungle, the numbers say it, there is no doubt that the Twins needed his major league ready bat, but they've demonstrated repeatedly with many chances in the Cuban market, they aren't willing to entertain that type of risk.  The Sox demonstrated that it is folly to try to time your "big signings" only after your prospects have all arrived.

 

Edited December 9, 2014 by jokin

[Squirrel]

Moderator warning: The bickering needs to stop.  Have a discussion and at some point, agree to disagree.  Try not to make this personal by telling other posters they are off the rails, or need decaf, or just don't get it.  Make your points without going there.  Warnings are and will continue to be issued.  It's frustrating to be losing and feel that issues aren't being addressed as we think they should be, but I think we can all express this without delving into the trolling and disrespect and non sequitur realms.  Thank you!

[bird]

They don't really need future luck to have a meaningfully strong rotation -- they've got one at present.  Sale, Quintana, and now Samardzija.

 

I'd argue that even with TR's guidance, the Twins draft-and-develop approach is probably more dependent on "luck" (with less yearly breakout potential) than the White Sox more aggressive approach.

How many starters in a given rotation go down for a lengthy period in a season? Two? Most teams end up using what, 7-8 starters in a season? That's the luck I'm talking about. 

 

If Detroit loses two starters, they have Buck Farmer and a desperate trade to make. The Whities, I'll grant, have a little more depth. But I'll take our current veteran rotation plus May, Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Hu, Wheeler, and Rogers et al on a five-year plan over what the Whities have going at the moment.

 

The Sox will be improved, but so will the Twins. Hahn is probably taking the right approach for them, all things considered, but that doesn't make me think the Twins are in the midst of a failed strategy or something. I think the Twins, if they execute reasonably well, will have a more sustainable foundation.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think anyone believes the White Sox have been a perfectly run franchise or even a better one than the Twins. I certainly wouldn't have traded what the Sox did for a 38 year old David Wells, for example. A 6th rounder and a 16th rounder for a 30 year old Samardzija, who worshipped the White Sox as a kid, seems a lot more reasonable IMO.To your second point, the Twins and White Sox are basically polar opposites of each other in how they handle prospects - one uses them as a pipeline of talent and the other uses them as currency, its interesting to compare the results of the two strategies. And 1150 wins doesn't mean much without some context. Also this is a Twins forum.

Yeah the price for Shark is reasonable, rental price or no, and is like Laroche a lot at his price. All that said, I wouldn't declare this anything more than an aggressive, interesting set of moves because we've seen these same moves fail often.

 

Personally I prefer an organization that operates closer to the middle of those two poles you speak of. I see some smart ideas in both, but often carried too far.

[nicksaviking]

And over the past 9 years, they have a .495 winning percentage, with 1 post season appearence (thanks to a Jim Thome homer). The same period of time shows the Twins to have a .485 WP, and 3 post season entries. Since 2006, the Sox have yet to post consecutive winning seasons. I don't think the Twins want to go about emulating that. 

 

I think we're past the point where simple post season "entries" are something we place as our goal.  I'll be happy to see the White Sox crash and burn, but they are putting together a pitching staff that looks like it may be capable of taking home with World Series.  I doubt they will, but at least they recognize what their pitchers need to look like. 

 

They Twins haven't put together a pitching staff that looked like it could win a World Series in 24 years.  The last time the Twins actually fielded a staff capable of winning a championship, they actually did.  Three studs up front and a rock solid back of the bullpen and you give yourself a chance. 

[nicksaviking]

Personally I prefer an organization that operates closer to the middle of those two poles you speak of. I see some smart ideas in both, but often carried too far.

 

I do too, perhaps partially because I like the chemestry when your core guys came up together, but it certainly does look like the on the 10 year anniversary of their WS championship they are trying to copy the formula.  That year they signed Jermaine Dye, Tag Iguchi and Aj Pierzynski, along with they back of their bullpen Dustin Hermanson and Luis Vizcaino while trading for Carl Everett, Freddie Garcia, Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras.  Obviously some moves were better than others, but enough worked out.

[tobi0040]

I trust the Ivy League and Northwestern Kellogg School of Management guy to understand how to make the new economics of baseball work- and they've proven more than capable of extricating themselves from no longer desirable contracts just over the last year.  I think the new tidal wave of money flowing into baseball isn't fully yet appreciated.

 

$90M last year + $39M that they have added already would get me to $129M.  That is more than their highest payroll of all time, which was in 2012 of $127M. I don't  ever see them as being a $170-200M payroll team.  So this team plus another $10-15M in payroll does not look like a world series champion to me.  Nor are they investing in young players.

 

The Twins start with say $70-75M in 2016 (lose Hunter and Pelf).  We have Buxton, Sano, Meyer, and Berrios (among others) and could theoretically add another $40-50M......we are going to be OK boys and girls. I would honestly not trade franchises this second if I wanted to build a contender. 

 

Which position would you guys rather be in over the next five years?

Edited December 9, 2014 by tobi0040

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

It's only money. Isn't there some middle ground between the Sox and Twins?

Yes - the middle ground rhymes with "The Faint Bluest Dardanelles"

 

I think the difference between the Sox and Twins means that in order to be competitive any time soon, the White sox had no choice but to make large FA signings and trade whatever prospects they think they can spare.

The Twins have been slowly (re)building the farm and as a result, there's less urgency in the front office to make a big reach now. The Twins will wait for the next crop prospects to arrive and then contend for a few seasons before starting over.

The owner makes money, the fans have something to hope for, almost everyone is happy.

[bird]

Recalling with fondness that the Twins in fact did NOT field a staff capable of winning a WS in 1987, and they won anyway, with fearsome Les Straker taking the hill as our third starter.

 

Irrelevant fun fact here. 

[nicksaviking]

Recalling with fondness that the Twins in fact did NOT field a staff capable of winning a WS in 1987, and they won anyway, with fearsome Les Straker taking the hill as our third starter.

 

Irrelevant fun fact here. 

 

Yeah, 87 was not a great staff despite having a Cy Young Award winner and a HOFer.  That was reflected by their meager 85 regular season wins.  You can get lucky, few teams have recently but it's possible. However, I think to give your team a realistic chance, you need to put together an elite staff and hope it's enough.

[sorney]

Recalling with fondness that the Twins in fact did NOT field a staff capable of winning a WS in 1987, and they won anyway, with fearsome Les Straker taking the hill as our third starter.

 

Irrelevant fun fact here. 

Yeah, but the 87 Twins had the almighty pitching power of Mike Smithson!!!  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Last year they fielded a 73 win team for 90M.  They don't lose any large contracts.

Dunn.  And if we're counting Zach Duke's ~$5 mil AAV on one side of the ledger, it seems only fair to include similar yearly salaries they are shedding in the form of Lindstrom, Beckham, De Aza, and Downs, not to mention Bellisario and Konerko close to ~$3 mil each.

[Thrylos]

Recalling with fondness that the Twins in fact did NOT field a staff capable of winning a WS in 1987, and they won anyway, with fearsome Les Straker taking the hill as our third starter.

 

Irrelevant fun fact here. 

 

Well... Straker was meant to be the fifth man in a 5 man pitching staff, at an era when the 5th man was a spot starter.  He actually rose above the occasion with a 103 ERA+, not too shabby for your third best starter.   Smithson, a veteran with success who led the AL for the Twins in GS in 84 and 85 was number 3, and an up and coming phenom (who later ate his way out of baseball,) Mark Portugal, was supposed to be the number 4.  The difference between Ryan and MacPhail is that when the latter two faltered, MacPhail was never afraid to trade his backup catcher to the Yankees for a veteran work horse with a ridiculous contract (Niekro) or a C prospect to the Indians for a future Hall of Famer (Carlton.)  

Edited December 9, 2014 by Thrylos

[tobi0040]

Dunn.  And if we're counting Zach Duke's ~$5 mil AAV on one side of the ledger, it seems only fair to include similar yearly salaries they are shedding in the form of Lindstrom, Beckham, De Aza, and Downs, not to mention Bellisario and Konerko close to ~$3 mil each.

 

On that Cot's site, they didn't have Dunn listed to get to the $90M because he was traded to Oakland.  I only looked at the top 7-8 paid guys and because I am lazy didn't look much below that.  The broader point remains. 

 

Would anyone trade franchises with them right now?  If not, we probably should not get too worked up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If Detroit loses two starters, they have Buck Farmer and a desperate trade to make. The Whities, I'll grant, have a little more depth. But I'll take our current veteran rotation plus May, Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Hu, Wheeler, and Rogers et al on a five-year plan over what the Whities have going at the moment.

First of all -- the five-year plan seems an odd way to put this.  Sale and Quintana were top 10 pitchers in MLB fWAR last year, and they're both young and signed cheaply for the next 5-6 seasons.  Depth is nice, but I'm not sure compiling a list of mostly B-/C+ prospects from the low minors really closes that huge gap.

 

Not to mention that there isn't anything precluding the White Sox from adding to that plan over the next five years, just like they did yesterday (adding #15 pitcher in 2014 MLB fWAR).

[Otto von Ballpark]

$90M last year + $39M that they have added already would get me to $129M.  That is more than their highest payroll of all time, which was in 2012 of $127M. I don't  ever see them as being a $170-200M payroll team.  So this team plus another $10-15M in payroll does not look like a world series champion to me.  Nor are they investing in young players.

 

The Twins start with say $70-75M in 2016 (lose Hunter and Pelf).  We have Buxton, Sano, Meyer, and Berrios (among others) and could theoretically add another $40-50M......we are going to be OK boys and girls. I would honestly not trade franchises this second if I wanted to build a contender. 

 

Which position would you guys rather be in over the next five years?

The White Sox are actually at about $104 million estimated for 2015 right now.

 

Before trading for Samardzija and signing Robertson, B-Ref actually had their projected payrolls lower than those of the Twins for 2015, 2017, and 2018.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2014-payroll-salaries.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2014-payroll-salaries.shtml

 

Even with the latest acquisitions, they are still within ~10% of the Twins projected payroll for those seasons, and it is less concentrated than that of the Twins (Mauer).

[tobi0040]

The White Sox are actually at about $104 million estimated for 2015 right now.

 

Before trading for Samardzija and signing Robertson, B-Ref actually had their projected payrolls lower than those of the Twins for 2015, 2017, and 2018.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2014-payroll-salaries.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2014-payroll-salaries.shtml

 

Even with the latest acquisitions, they are still within ~10% of the Twins projected payroll for those seasons, and it is less concentrated than that of the Twins (Mauer).

 

 

I think the White Sox extend Jeff S at about $20M a year, starting as early as next year.  That puts them about $115M assuming they fill out their roster with young players.  At this point that may not be an accurate assumption.  If they are over $120M they are near their highest point.

 

 

I know I would not trade spots with them right now.  Would anyone else? 

Edited December 9, 2014 by tobi0040

[savvyspy]

I'm not sure if the White Sox approach is the perfect one to emulate. But when you are on pace for your FIFTH 90+ loss season in a row, haven't won a playoff series in the better part of a decade, and haven't sniffed a World Series since the first Bush was president, I don't think it's too much to ask that they start emulating ANYONE other than themselves.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I know I wouldn't trade stadiums with the Sox!

[Willihammer]

I don't think there's much question they are in a better spot than the Twins to compete for the next 5 years. But if the 2000s were any indication they'll make a boneheaded move, maybe two before the term is over and at that point the Twins draft and hold policy will start to gain ground on them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sox still need a Catcher, 3rd Base, Left Field and could probably use a bench bat and more help in the bullpen.

They're probably looking to improve at the spot anyway, but the White Sox starting catcher actually bested ours in 2014 rWAR (and is younger and cheaper with only year-to-year commitments for the next 3 seasons).

 

Similarly, their third baseman's stats actually look not dissimilar to our 3B at the same age (Plouffe two years ago, although I will grant Gillaspie looks less likely to improve defensively).

 

They've got an exciting young free swinging Venezuelan in one of the outfield corners... sound like anyone else we know?  (Admittedly they need their own Torii Hunter for the other corner and/or DH.)

 

And they've already dropped the 3 worst performers from last year's bullpen and replaced them with two guys from the top of last year's K/9 leaderboards.

 

Again, they are far from perfect, and I imagine they are still looking to add a bat or two (or three!).  But they've got a WAY better pitching staff in the immediate future, and roughly equal total future contractual commitments.  The main Twins advantage is indeed "farm system" which is important but feels a lot less dependable than an existing MLB talent advantage.

 

In a hypothetical world where a genie offers a complete organizational trade, you'd have to be tempted, right?  Sale, Quintana, Abreu, and Eaton are four of the best in the game right now, and all cheap and controlled for 4-6 seasons.  Seems like the Twins, even with the farm system advantage, would be lucky to be in a similar situation as far as top-end talent and control in the near future.

[nicksaviking]

I don't think there's much question they are in a better spot than the Twins to compete for the next 5 years. But if the 2000s were any indication they'll make a boneheaded move, maybe two before the term is over and at that point the Twins draft and hold policy will start to gain ground on them.

 

Like hire a manager who likes to play station to station baseball and a GM who likes everyone to hit the ball 500 feet.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think the White Sox extend Jeff S at about $20M a year, starting as early as next year.  That puts them about $115M assuming they fill out their roster with young players.  At this point that may not be an accurate assumption.  If they are over $120M they are near their highest point.

As you say, that may not be an accurate assumption.

 

Plus, they could let Samardzija walk and still project to have a better staff than the Twins for awhile.  Sale and Quintana are really that valuable right now.  Further, the White Sox shed almost $40 mil per year after 2016 in just three mostly supporting players: Ramirez, Laroche, and Danks.

 

 

Also, the Twins might be very close to a similar extension crunch with Hughes, only it could be a lot tighter if we don't quickly develop some other high-level starters to fall back on.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

They're probably looking to improve at the spot anyway, but the White Sox starting catcher actually bested ours in 2014 rWAR (and is younger and cheaper with only year-to-year commitments for the next 3 seasons).

 

Similarly, their third baseman's stats actually look not dissimilar to our 3B at the same age (Plouffe two years ago, although I will grant Gillaspie looks less likely to improve defensively).

 

They've got an exciting young free swinging Venezuelan in one of the outfield corners... sound like anyone else we know?  (Admittedly they need their own Torii Hunter for the other corner and/or DH.)

 

And they've already dropped the 3 worst performers from last year's bullpen and replaced them with two guys from the top of last year's K/9 leaderboards.

 

Again, they are far from perfect, and I imagine they are still looking to add a bat or two (or three!).  But they've got a WAY better pitching staff in the immediate future, and roughly equal total future contractual commitments.  The main Twins advantage is indeed "farm system" which is important but feels a lot less dependable than an existing MLB talent advantage.

 

In a hypothetical world where a genie offers a complete organizational trade, you'd have to be tempted, right?  Sale, Quintana, Abreu, and Eaton are four of the best in the game right now, and all cheap and controlled for 4-6 seasons.  Seems like the Twins, even with the farm system advantage, would be lucky to be in a similar situation as far as top-end talent and control in the near future.

 

I mean, compared to a team that lost 90+ games 4 years in a row, sure the White Sox look pretty good.

 

I was responding more to the tenor of comments saying that Sox were now the favorites to win the division and/or serious playoff contenders this year. I don't think they have done enough yet this offseason, and we haven't seen what the rest of the league will do yet.

 

But if there's comparisons to be made:

I think Plouffe is better than Gillaspie, both now and when Plouffe was Gillaspie's age. I'd take Plouffe over him. Also, I'd take Sano over Gillaspie for the next decade or two.

I'd take Dozier over the current hole at 2B in Chicago, too.

I think both outfield corners in Chicago are suspect. Viciedo and Avisail Garcia are both trouble. The Twins can't really talk in that department, though, so I won't belabor that point.

Catching... ? Tyler Flowers and Nieto? I'd honestly rather have Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto. If Molitor would let Pinto have more playing time in 2015 than Gardy was giving him, I like what the Twins have even more.

The Sox have a better rotation, no argument from me there. The bullpens I think will depend on what the Twins do in the offseason and how fast the 2013 and 2014 draft class moves up. 

[bird]

First of all -- the five-year plan seems an odd way to put this.  Sale and Quintana were top 10 pitchers in MLB fWAR last year, and they're both young and signed cheaply for the next 5-6 seasons.  Depth is nice, but I'm not sure compiling a list of mostly B-/C+ prospects from the low minors really closes that huge gap.

 

Not to mention that there isn't anything precluding the White Sox from adding to that plan over the next five years, just like they did yesterday (adding #15 pitcher in 2014 MLB fWAR).

 

I get why Hahn is doing what he's doing. I said earlier that it makes sense to skin the cat the way he's doing it given their situation. But I need to correct your statement: May, Meyer, and Berrios are B+ prospects, not part of a compilation of "B-/C+ prospects from the low minors", and the others mentioned are all better than what that suggests, really. But talking about individual prospects misses the point about the  advantages of having high-level talent at all levels. If you accept the benefits of this, talking about a five-year horizon doesn't sound odd, spycake. The Shark trade illustrates this well, as the Sox further decimated a weak system for a #2-3 starter who will cost a fortune in a year. Another example: Detroit just gave up two of their ten best prospects for a #4-5 starter. Purging those same like-quality prospects from the Twins system would barely impact  their future.

 

Again, I'm not criticizing Hahn's approach and acknowledge he could add to the $104M payroll as a means of sustaining things in the absence of an incredible prospect pipeline like the Cubs and Twins have (although he now has fewer prospect chips, right?). But I am defending the Twin's approach and will go a step further to say it's a more sustainable strategy, even without considering the economic side of it all beyond player value.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't think there's much question they are in a better spot than the Twins to compete for the next 5 years. But if the 2000s were any indication they'll make a boneheaded move, maybe two before the term is over and at that point the Twins draft and hold policy will start to gain ground on them.

Just scanning their yearly rosters at B-Ref, I don't see many boneheaded moves.  The Nick Swisher fiasco in 2008 was obviously the big one, losing Gio Gonzalez in the process.  Carlos Quention was a loss in 2012, although his subsequent salaries and health greatly reduce the level of boneheadedness.  I've seen the Peavy trade cited a few times in this thread, but it didn't really hurt them (actually netted them Avisail Garcia in the end).  Edwin Jackson for Daniel Hudson?

 

Signing Dunn wasn't a good move, but it was only cash and not a crippling amount (Nolasco money).

 

This is a team that hasn't bottomed out much or for very long since I became a baseball fan (1990).

[tobi0040]

Just scanning their yearly rosters at B-Ref, I don't see many boneheaded moves.  The Nick Swisher fiasco in 2008 was obviously the big one, losing Gio Gonzalez in the process.  Carlos Quention was a loss in 2012, although his subsequent salaries and health greatly reduce the level of boneheadedness.  I've seen the Peavy trade cited a few times in this thread, but it didn't really hurt them (actually netted them Avisail Garcia in the end).  Edwin Jackson for Daniel Hudson?

 

Signing Dunn wasn't a good move, but it was only cash and not a crippling amount (Nolasco money).

 

This is a team that hasn't bottomed out much or for very long since I became a baseball fan (1990).

 

 

I mean, compared to a team that lost 90+ games 4 years in a row, sure the White Sox look pretty good.

 

I was responding more to the tenor of comments saying that Sox were now the favorites to win the division and/or serious playoff contenders this year. I don't think they have done enough yet this offseason, and we haven't seen what the rest of the league will do yet.

 

But if there's comparisons to be made:

I think Plouffe is better than Gillaspie, both now and when Plouffe was Gillaspie's age. I'd take Plouffe over him. Also, I'd take Sano over Gillaspie for the next decade or two.

I'd take Dozier over the current hole at 2B in Chicago, too.

I think both outfield corners in Chicago are suspect. Viciedo and Avisail Garcia are both trouble. The Twins can't really talk in that department, though, so I won't belabor that point.

Catching... ? Tyler Flowers and Nieto? I'd honestly rather have Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto. If Molitor would let Pinto have more playing time in 2015 than Gardy was giving him, I like what the Twins have even more.

The Sox have a better rotation, no argument from me there. The bullpens I think will depend on what the Twins do in the offseason and how fast the 2013 and 2014 draft class moves up. 

 

 

I think the only time to panic is if their future (2 years to 6-7 years) looks brighter than ours.  I don't think it does.

 

I think some are feeling left out because action is going on around the league and as usual, we are having no part of it.  But I don't think these are the types of moves we should be worrying about.  They seem to be buying high on guys, adding 30+ year olds, overpaying for average at best bats, spending where they should not be spending (closers, DH), etc.  These are not the types of decisions over time that pay off at a reasonable rate.

[TheLeviathan]

Just scanning their yearly rosters at B-Ref, I don't see many boneheaded moves.  The Nick Swisher fiasco in 2008 was obviously the big one, losing Gio Gonzalez in the process.  Carlos Quention was a loss in 2012, although his subsequent salaries and health greatly reduce the level of boneheadedness.  I've seen the Peavy trade cited a few times in this thread, but it didn't really hurt them (actually netted them Avisail Garcia in the end).  Edwin Jackson for Daniel Hudson?

 

Signing Dunn wasn't a good move, but it was only cash and not a crippling amount (Nolasco money).

 

This is a team that hasn't bottomed out much or for very long since I became a baseball fan (1990).

 

They've also devoted significant resources and been basically the same as us the last decade.  It's not that any of their moves are horrible, it's just that they are always thin (which bites them in little ways that hold them back), they're always chasing, and they're always inconsistent.  (Odd as that might sound)

 

Every now and then those inconsistencies smooth out and they perform decently, but just as often the patchwork roster construction and thin depth catch up to them and they give 500 at-bats to Gordon Beckham, Jeff Keppinger, or keep shoving Jordan Danks out there.  (Or John Danks for that matter)

 

None of that is to put the Twins on a pedestal.  In my opinion they both suffer from the same problem of being too comfortable in their heavy handed approach.  (Over Aggressive vs. Pathological fear of Aggression)

[Otto von Ballpark]

But I need to correct your statement: May, Meyer, and Berrios are B+ prospects, not part of a compilation of "B-/C+ prospects from the low minors", and the others mentioned are all better than what that suggests, really. 

My post said "mostly" and I stand by it.  Sickels has Meyer and Berrios (and Stewart) as the only Twins pitching prospects above a B- grade. 

 

If you accept the benefits of this, talking about a five-year horizon doesn't sound odd, spycake.

 

...

 

But I am defending the Twin's approach and will go a step further to say it's a more sustainable strategy, even without considering the economic side of it all beyond player value.

What was weird about the 5 year horizon is that Sale and Quintana are two of the youngest, best starters in MLB, both controlled cheaply for next 5-6 years.  This isn't even a Verlander (expensive) or Price (expensive or gone soon) situation.  A Sale-Quintana (plus Samardzija) situation anytime in the next few years would pretty much be a best-case scenario for the Twins plan -- how can another team, having achieved that best-case scenario, somehow ranked behind the Twins who have achieved virtually none of it yet?

 

 

Looking at the White Sox record as a franchise the last 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 years, it's hard to see how their approach is less sustainable than that of the Twins.

[jay]

It should have been pretty obvious the White Sox were going on a spending spree this offseason.  They shed Dunn, De Aza, Beckham, Lindstrom, Downs, Belisario, Konerko and Paulino since the start of the 2014 season.  That was a lot of marginal production and roster spots eating up $35M.

 

They deserve credit in that regards given that they were able to give themselves a lot more roster and financial flexibility.  The Twins could take some notes in that regard. 

 

It was less expected that the Sox would sign 2 free agent relievers and trade for one year of a quality SP in this time frame.  However, it don't see the condensed timing as a reason to congratulate them.  It should be interesting to see how it turns out with a $12M closer for 4 years and $5M set up guy for 3 years who just had his first decent season since 2009.  It'll also be interesting to see if they retain Samardzija and at what cost ($$$$$). 

 

They win "most early offseason action", but I'm far from calling these moves a winner.