Article: White Sox Winning Winter Meetings Through Day 1

[tobi0040]

I think that the White Sox have definitely put themselves on pace with, and if the Tigers don't sign Scherzer, they should be the favorite...

 

Yeah, the Twins are back to being the little engine that could... and as I said coming into the Winter Meetings, that's probably OK. I think they need to let young guys play... I'd just like to see them be competitive in 2015. I'm tired of all the losses. 

 

The Sox won 73 games last year with two primary closers. One with an ERA of 1.96 and the other 2.96 (Putnam and Petricka).   Both better than Robertson's 3.08.

 

Even if Jeff S. has a year like the last two, how are they going to win 88 games?  I expect regression out of Abreu as well. 

[jokin]

 

 

And we don't know who the other prospect is.  Their system is not ranked that great, but their top five is not shabby.  Rodon is 1.  They have a young SS at 2 that had an OPS over .800 in three league last year (17th pick in 2013).  #3 is a starter that throws 100 and had an ERA of 1.44 last year.  #5 is their first rounder in 2012 with some power. 

 

I'm betting the A's don't get any of the Top Four, at least.  They likely aren't getting Rodon, Anderson, Montas or Johnson.  

[jokin]

The Sox won 73 games last year with two primary closers. One with an ERA of 1.96 and the other 2.96 (Putnam and Petricka).   Both better than Robertson's 3.08.

 

Even if Jeff S. has a year like the last two, how are they going to win 88 games?  I expect regression out of Abreu as well. 

 

maybe, but now he has LaRoche for plate protection.

[jokin]

The Sox won 73 games last year with two primary closers. One with an ERA of 1.96 and the other 2.96 (Putnam and Petricka).   Both better than Robertson's 3.08.

 

Even if Jeff S. has a year like the last two, how are they going to win 88 games?  I expect regression out of Abreu as well. 

 

So adding a guy to their mix of Putnam, Petricka and Duke, from the pressure cooker in New York, plus following Mariano Rivera, is a bad thing?

[tobi0040]

So adding a guy to their mix of Putnam, Petricka and Duke, from the pressure cooker in New York, plus following Mariano Rivera, is a bad thing?

 

Not a bad thing.  But they will have the same production out of the closer. So I am not adding any wins here, certainly not multiple wins.

[tobi0040]

maybe, but now he has LaRoche for plate protection.

 

Cespedes had an OPS of .861 in the first year.  .737 and .751 the next two.

 

Puig's OPS went from .925 to .863.  When the tape is out on these guys they regress.  That regression will hurt the White Sox way more than a 35 year old Adam Larcoche (career .811 OPS).  He is a bad defender too, not sure if they will DH him.

Edited December 9, 2014 by tobi0040

[nicksaviking]

 Frankly, it’s not a bidding war I would want to get into. His ERA+ in 2013 was 110, in 2012 it was 79, in 2011, it was 122, in 2010 it was 84 and in 2009 it was 94. That’s not the kind of guy you get into a bidding war over.

 

 

 

Actually, looking at that pattern it apears like a great time to buy low on him in an odd numbered year.  He seems to enjoy those.

Edited December 9, 2014 by nicksaviking

[Thrylos]

I would not call them quite "winners" yet.  I am not sure how I would felt if the Twins traded Kyle Gibson and Jorge Polanco for a season (or half) of Samardzija.  Because that's practically what the WSux did, only Marcus Semien is maybe more MLB-ready than Polanco and Chriss Bassit is under more years of club control than Gibson.

 

As far as Robertson goes,  I love that move.  He reminds me of a certain closer.   Robertson 2014: 4-5, 3.08 ERA, 39 saves, 2.68 FIP.  Matt Capps 2010: 5-3, 2.47 ERA, 42 saves, 3.22 FIP.     Paying top $ for an "established closer" while you can put a failed starter who did not quite reach his potential in the position (Nathan and Perkins are examples) is silly.  I think that the Twins should trade Perkins, since the market for closers has become nutty and try Pelf there.

 

So it is kinda business as usual for the WSox:  They overspend, they do not quite make it and then they burn it up and start  again.    Winners?  Nah.   That's as much their MO, as dumpster diving is TR's

Edited December 9, 2014 by Thrylos

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Gilaspie- 27 years old, OPS+ 113 Slash .282/.336/.416/.752 (not even Arb eligible until 2016)

Plouffe-   28 years old  OPS+ 110 Slash .258/.328/.423/.751

 

Plouffe also had twice as many homers and hit 40 doubles. Plouffe had a 3.9 WAR to Gillaspie's 1.5.

 

Gillaspie hits well enough, but his defense is not so hot. Maybe he turns it into a strength as Plouffe did in 2014 - but I think they are not as close as their triple slash makes them out to be.

 

The White Sox have been actively looking to replace Gillaspie this off-season, they've been linked to Sandoval and are rumored to be after Headley as well.

[bird]

The Twins missed on Abreu last year. and LaRoche was a better bat addition than the Twins made this year.  The Twins don't have an Ace, the Sox now have an Ace and a Half-  and Quintana in 2014 was pretty close in performance to Sale and Shark.  If Rodon has a big splash debut, they have 4 imposing pieces in the rotation.  The Sox don't have the Twins farm system, but most of their young guys are already on the roster, with a few Top 100 infielders and a few more arms knocking on the door.

The Whities have "a few" Top 100 infielders? Tim Anderson for sure, but now find me two others that are in this category, jokin. And if you're counting Shark on the CWS side of the ledger, it's only fair to subtract Semien. 

 

Not to take away from what CWS is accomplishing. I think Hahn is doing a nice job of creating a formidable big league team in very short order, although I question whether he can build a sustainable level of excellence absent either a further resurgence of the farm system beyond two elite prospects or further aggressive spending in FA markets.

[nicksaviking]

Cespedes had an OPS of .861 in the first year.  .737 and .751 the next two.

 

Puig's OPS went from .925 to .863.  When the tape is out on these guys they regress.  That regression will hurt the White Sox way more than a 35 year old Adam Larcoche (career .811 OPS).  He is a bad defender too, not sure if they will DH him.

 

LaRoache is a good defender though, I'd guess unless they're platooning two guys who they paid $100 million, that Abreu will be getting most of the DH AB's. 

 

He likely will regress some, after all, if he didn't, a continued pace of a .964 OPS is going to have us talking HOF in a couple years.  Still, even if you want to go extreme and use that 14.5% regression that Cespedes had in year two, Abreu is still putting up a .825 OPS, which is better than any player the Twins had last year.

Edited December 9, 2014 by nicksaviking

[bird]

Oh, and the Twins didn't "miss" on Abreu. They chose not to swing, with logical reasons, whether one agrees with them or not. And they added a better bat than LaRoche last year. Both Arcia and Vargas will prove to be better bats. Let's noe see if they can match up with Sano and Buxton as well.

[tobi0040]

The Whities have "a few" Top 100 infielders? Tim Anderson for sure, but now find me two others that are in this category, jokin. And if you're counting Shark on the CWS side of the ledger, it's only fair to subtract Semien. 

 

Not to take away from what CWS is accomplishing. I think Hahn is doing a nice job of creating a formidable big league team in very short order, although I question whether he can build a sustainable level of excellence absent either a further resurgence of the farm system beyond two elite prospects or further aggressive spending in FA markets.

 

I wonder what the sentiment would have been in 2009.  They ripped up their system for Jake Peavy and signed Colon.  Then they won 79 games.

Edited December 9, 2014 by tobi0040

[Beezer07]

4 years at $11+ mil per for a CLOSER? I know it's not my money and I shouldn't worry about it, but what a gigantic waste of money.

[bird]

There's talkin' a good game, and then there's what the Sox are doing.

Two words: one day.

 

Maybe we should ALL wait on talkin' a good game, eh?

[tobi0040]

LaRoache is a good defender though, I'd guess unless they're platooning two guys who they paid $100 million, that Abreu will be getting most of the DH AB's. 

 

He likely will regress some, after all, if he didn't, a continued pace of a .964 OPS is going to have us talking HOF in a couple years.  Still, even if you want to go extreme and use that 14.5% regression that Cespedes had in year two, Abreu is still putting up a .825 OPS, which is better than any player the Twins had last year.

 

LaRoche had a dWAR of -1 last year.    -9.6 so far in his career.

 

My point on the regression for Abreau is they won 73 games and will get regression from their best hitter.  An .850-.875 is a huge decline from last year...so they have moving pieces here in both directions.

[jokin]

Not a bad thing.  But they will have the same production out of the closer. So I am not adding any wins here, certainly not multiple wins.

I think that would be a mistake on your part.  Both Duke and Robertson were high leverage performers familiar with pennant races.  Further, you glaringly glossed over the relative performances here-

 

Petricka  ERA 2.96 FIP 3.60 xFIP 3.76    K/9   6.78

Putnam  ERA 1.98 FIP 3.08 xFIP 3.64     K/9   7.57

Duke      ERA 2.49 FIP 2.14 xFIP 2.09     K/9 11.35

Robtsn.  ERA 3.08 FIP 2.65 xFIP 2.13     K/9 13.43 

 

And remember, Duke and Robertson are likely replacing big innings from guys who had negative value in 2014.

Edited December 9, 2014 by jokin

[jokin]

Two words: one day.

 

Maybe we should ALL wait on talkin' a good game, eh?

 

Actually, it's been well over a year of very bold and decisive decisions on the Whities part.

[twinscowboysbulls]

There must have been an earlier tweet where he talks about everything the Twins are doing, which is why they are the only AL central team not mentioned int he first tweet above.

 

Didn't you guys hear we got contracted again?

[jokin]

Oh, and the Twins didn't "miss" on Abreu. They chose not to swing, with logical reasons, whether one agrees with them or not. And they added a better bat than LaRoche last year. Both Arcia and Vargas will prove to be better bats. Let's noe see if they can match up with Sano and Buxton as well.

 

Given the result, the "logical reasons" not to take a swing is still a "miss" when the pitch went right over the plate. A strike out is still a strike out whether you swing or not.

[bird]

Actually, it's been well over a year of very bold and decisive decisions on the Whities part.

Sorry, I thought your main point was that, unlike the Twins, who are merely talking' a good game (one day of winter meetings behind them), the Whities are actually doing something (one day, no confirmation on the Shark trade). My bad.

 

We agree that Hahn is acting boldly. 

[bird]

Given the result, the "logical reasons" not to take a swing is still a "miss" when the pitch went right over the plate. A strike out is still a strike out whether you swing or not.

So by your logic, you must conclude that every team in baseball is incompetent. After all, they all missed on Sano. I mean, talk about a fat pitch. Except the Twins, who maybe just got lucky.

Edited December 9, 2014 by birdwatcher

[jokin]

The Whities have "a few" Top 100 infielders? Tim Anderson for sure, but now find me two others that are in this category, jokin. And if you're counting Shark on the CWS side of the ledger, it's only fair to subtract Semien. 

 

Not to take away from what CWS is accomplishing. I think Hahn is doing a nice job of creating a formidable big league team in very short order, although I question whether he can build a sustainable level of excellence absent either a further resurgence of the farm system beyond two elite prospects or further aggressive spending in FA markets.

 

"A few" means Anderson and Micah Johnson (my guy, who has been in various top 100s at the bottom end, but who has 75-80 speed).  I think these two are going to be the Sox middle infielders for many years to come, gamer Johnson arriving this year, Anderson by 2016.

[jokin]

So by your logic, you must conclude that every team in baseball is incompetent. After all, they all missed on Sano. Except the Twins, who maybe just got lucky.

 

No, my logic was there were only a few teams who had the immediate need for Abreu, so there wasn't much of a bidding war, and it didn't include the big pocket teams, no matter how you spin it, this was a major miss.  And nobody should have missed that Abreu's numbers in Cuba were comparable or better than the guys who had already succeeded at the major league level.

[Steven Buhr]

I guess I'm not smart enough to do the analysis on these moves, but I'm left comforted by one thing: It does seem that pretty much every offseason the Bitch Sox make big moves for big players and spend big money. yet they seldom seem to win a lot of games when those players take the field.

 

As Thrylos alluded to, the Twins and Sox simply have very different approaches to assembling a roster. The Twins primarily build from within and the Sox act like they want to be the Yankees, but on a much lesser budget.

 

Anyone who expects the Twins to act more like the White Sox in the offseason simply is frustrating himself/herself. It won't happen. It's not how the Twins put together a roster. And, as frustrating as I admit that is at times, I can't say there's much evidence to support the Sox' way of doing things is any more likely to generate success on the field.

[tobi0040]

We should also mention that the White Sox were horrible defensively last year, which is a theme most have been very critical about the Twins for.  Fangraphs has them below the Twins actually, and they have only added Laroche, who is not a good defender no matter where they play him at 35.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d

[tobi0040]

I guess I'm not smart enough to do the analysis on these moves, but I'm left comforted by one thing: It does seem that pretty much every offseason the Bitch Sox make big moves for big players and spend big money. yet they seldom seem to win a lot of games when those players take the field.

 

As Thrylos alluded to, the Twins and Sox simply have very different approaches to assembling a roster. The Twins primarily build from within and the Sox act like they want to be the Yankees, but on a much lesser budget.

 

Anyone who expects the Twins to act more like the White Sox in the offseason simply is frustrating himself/herself. It won't happen. It's not how the Twins put together a roster. And, as frustrating as I admit that is at times, I can't say there's much evidence to support the Sox' way of doing things is any more likely to generate success on the field.

 

Yes, they are still the White Sox.  They don't care about defense and have historically not cared much for OBP. I think the Jeff S. move has a ton of risk and I will never support a $50M dollar closer.

 

It won't get headlines, but on top of the $50M they gave Robertson, they gave up a second round pick.  The Twins used their second round pick on a guy that will probably close for 4-6 years here and will make about $15M over that stretch doing so.

Edited December 9, 2014 by tobi0040

[TheDean]

Yes, they are still the White Sox.  They don't care about defense and have historically not cared much for OBP. I think the Jeff S. move has a ton of risk and I will never support a $50M dollar closer.

 

It won't get headlines, but on top of the $50M they gave Robertson, they gave up a second round pick.  The Twins used their second round pick on a guy that will probably close for 4-6 years here and will make about $15M over that stretch doing so.

 

Watching all these moves made early in a pretty aggressive manner reminds me of Beane's moves during the season.  However, I feel like I can usually see the logic behind some of his moves, even if they're risky.

 

I can't say the same for the Sox in this case.  Will it improve them? Yes. Do they have a bright future? Yes (and adding Rodon to the mix soon will make the pitching top-notch).  That said, they're giving up a lot of money, and a lot of lottery tickets (picks, prospects) for middling upgrades.  I say middling not because they're bad players, but because the total benefit:cost ratio isn't the best. Closer or not, I'd rather not invest like that in relievers, and dealing prospects for a rental wouldn't be my approach to climbing out of the cellar.

 

Then again, my opinions are probably skewed by being a bitter Twins fan who wants to see the Sox in a state of continual dumpster fire.

[nicksaviking]

I think that would be a mistake on your part.  Both Duke and Robertson were high leverage performers familiar with pennant races.  Further, you glaringly glossed over the relative performances here-

 

Petricka  ERA 2.96 FIP 3.60 xFIP 3.76    K/9   6.78

Putnam  ERA 1.98 FIP 3.08 xFIP 3.64     K/9   7.57

Duke      ERA 2.49 FIP 2.14 xFIP 2.09     K/9 11.35

Robtsn.  ERA 3.08 FIP 2.65 xFIP 2.13     K/9 13.43 

 

And remember, Duke and Robertson are likely replacing big innings from guys who had negative value in 2014.

 

Yeah, it certainly looks like they're taking the Royals lead and adding flamethrowers throught the pen and doing their best to get them in the rotation also.  Only Perkins can hold a candle to the butt kicking these teams will bring in the later innings.  That is, only the healthy Perkins.

[jokin]

Watching all these moves made early in a pretty aggressive manner reminds me of Beane's moves during the season.  However, I feel like I can usually see the logic behind some of his moves, even if they're risky.

 

I can't say the same for the Sox in this case.  Will it improve them? Yes. Do they have a bright future? Yes (and adding Rodon to the mix soon will make the pitching top-notch).  That said, they're giving up a lot of money, and a lot of lottery tickets (picks, prospects) for middling upgrades.  I say middling not because they're bad players, but because the total benefit:cost ratio isn't the best. Closer or not, I'd rather not invest like that in relievers, and dealing prospects for a rental wouldn't be my approach to climbing out of the cellar.

 

Then again, my opinions are probably skewed by being a bitter Twins fan who wants to see the Sox in a state of continual dumpster fire.

 

With the Duke and Robertson signings, plus their alleged continuing pursuit of Gregerson,  the Sox are trying to emphatically answer what the Royals did, and buying a high-quality pen.  

 

I am also guessing that the Sox are betting that, given they are Shark's hometown team, he won't just be a rental.  If every one of these high-priced pitching deals work out, plus at least two of Rodon, Montas, Adams and Danish really blossoming, the Sox might have the best pitching staff in the AL Central for a few years.

 

(When you're going to go after "hometown" boys, I much prefer bringing home Shark and Gregerson to Hunter and Guerrier).

Edited December 9, 2014 by jokin