Article: Is The Rotation Already Full?

[Nick Nelson]

Starting pitching was widely cited as a primary need for the Twins entering this offseason, for obvious reasons, and much discussion here and elsewhere has been dedicated to evaluating possible options on the market.

 

But the team announced two moves on Tuesday that make you wonder how aggressively they plan to pursue additional pitching upgrades.The first was the Torii Hunter signing. Though it's a one-year deal, the team committed a whopping $10.5 million to the outfielder for 2015, making him the third-highest paid player on the roster. If previous comments from Jim Pohlad and Terry Ryan suggesting that their budget will essentially remain static are true, there's little room left for any kind of substantive addition.

 

With all arbitration-eligible players other than Anthony Swarzak being tendered contracts, and with Hunter's salary factored in, the Twins now project for a payroll around $90 million in 2015. It would be their highest since 2012.

 

Spending more might not be the hold-up, though. The Twins might simply be interested in trying to get some return on money they've already invested. That's why the decision to retain Tommy Milone, announced on Tuesday night, is another telling development.

 

Milone figures to make around $2.5 million in his first turn at arbitration. That's not a huge number, relatively speaking, but it's five times the minimum, so it says something that the Twins ponied up.

 

Say what you will about the upper-80s fastball; the lefty has a sustained track record of big-league success. He was flat-out terrible in his first audition for Minnesota last year, but he also wasn't healthy for most of that time.

 

If a guy is hurt, he's hurt. It's hard to hold it against him. And that point applies to another pitcher who stands as a barrier for external additions to the rotation: Mike Pelfrey.

 

The big right-hander is owed $5.5 million. His two-year deal was a bit of a head-scratcher at the time, and looks worse now that the first season was a total loss, but Pelfrey also was hurt. The Twins believed in him enough to re-sign him a year ago, so they'll surely give him a chance to make good on the contract. I think he'd make more sense in the bullpen, but who knows if the team sees it that way.

 

Having $8 million tied up in those two -- with Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson already entrenched -- complicates the idea of handing some free agent a guaranteed contract of any magnitude.

 

I don't think the Twins are that interested in it, and really, I can't blame them. I'd just as soon let Milone and Pelfrey battle for a spot, and give the other to Trevor May or Alex Meyer, rather than throwing a bunch of money at someone like Edinson Volquez or Ryan Vogelsong.

 

With that being said, I do believe this team is in good position to bring aboard a big talent returning from injury and looking for a chance. There are many such names out there, ranging from Josh Johnson to Brett Anderson to Chad Billingsley to Kris Medlen to Brandon Beachy and beyond.

 

When expectations are low, a club can afford to gamble on a player who might not (or even probably will not) pan out, and with the pitchers listed above, the upside is substantial. If a guy like Johnson or Medlen happens to be fully healthy and back in prime form, he's suddenly the team's ace and that's a legitimate game-changer.

 

I'd expect Terry Ryan to pursue some names like that, but there's just not much reason to go after expensive, overpriced middle-tier options with limited ceilings. If they can't lure a rehab project on a deal that entails no assurances, the Twins are probably better off simply taking a long look at what they've got rather than going the free agent route.

 

Click here to view the article

[shs_59]

Ya , Nick, I tend to agree. Nice article 100% am intrigued by guys like Medlen and Beachy although ...look how bad Scott Baker turned out for the Cubbies 2 years or so back , in a similar situation as Medlen and B.B.

 

But i do not want to overpay for someone like Hammell or Vogelsong or Volquez i'd rather feast on someone like Brett Anderson or some on the names you mentioned.

 

Also i saw the Twins just signed OF Shane Robinson probably essentially AAA depth.  But i like the move non-the less unless the Twins think he gets a prominent 40 man spot.

[minnesota transplant]

Nice read Nick,  Like your headline reads, I believe their is no room in the Inn.  I understand trying to improve your pitching but this team will not compete next year, perhaps the year after.  By then the young guys will dictate what kind of starting staff you have.  Then you can address your needs.

[Platoon]

I agree, if we are just going to sign a middling of the road pitcher, we already have a plethora of them. It would be like using the word redundant twice in the same sentence!

Not mentioned was what caliber or level of pitcher would come here at this time? The outfield is going to be weak in the corners, and totally unknown in CF. The SS is untested, or back in CF, where he did not remind me of Torii Hunter! And the catcher is lowly rated both defensively and in pitch framing metrics. This is not going to be an ERA saving defense. Throw in a new coaching staff, and as a FA pitcher, there have to be better destinations.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If they aren't going to go after an ace, I'm honestly 'fine' if it's full (I use that term loosely, I just don't see the point in signing a marginal guy to compete).  I wouldn't mind the upgrade, but as far as I'm concerned, Nolasco, Gibson, Hughes, and May are all slotted there.  I could see a make good deal for someone, but I really think Pelfrey, Millone, and Meyer compete for that fifth spot, and even if Meyer out pitches them, I suspect he starts in AAA.  I also suspect that baring injury, Meyer is in the rotation at some point later this season. 

 

So in conclusion, other than a make good deal, or some sort of unexpected event where a guy gets handed to us, I don't think it happens.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Jon Lester was a potential centerpiece from the Johan trade, as was Hughes.

 

It would be nice if the Twins were ever even remotely a contender for one of the top free agents. Instead, they hand out small-to-medium contracts each year to good-to-mediocre players that add up to the cost of a marquee players. Nolasco-Pelfrey-Milone=$20MM (not to mention Hunter and Suzuki). Aim for mediocrity, and you have a high chance at success.

 

Lester would cost $20MM+ per year. But he doesn't cost a draft pick, and he is someone the Twins have wanted in the past.

 

Wouldn't it be nice if we could have some hope of being a mystery team in on Lester?

 

Back to the premise of the article...there would be room in the rotation for an ace. There isn't as much room for another mediocre option.

[sorney]

Probably no room with the way the Twins are putting this thing together.....which is depressing.  At least another year, and probably two (going on 5 strong) of non-contending baseball.

[TheLeviathan]

I tend to agree, which makes the move for Hunter more baffling.  The best way for this team to improve it's run prevention was to A) Sign an Ace or Make the OF defense not abysmal.

 

They likely won't do A and they may have found a way to make B even worse than it was.  That's impressive in a disheartening sort of way.

[tobi0040]

I tend to agree, which makes the move for Hunter more baffling.  The best way for this team to improve it's run prevention was to A) Sign an Ace or Make the OF defense not abysmal.

 

They likely won't do A and they may have found a way to make B even worse than it was.  That's impressive in a disheartening sort of way.

 

Not to mention Hunter pushes payroll to $90M, which limits the pitcher we will go after.

 

I think the move was to get clear upgrades.  The guys that improve our OF defense and starting pitching, yet were also in our price range were Colby Rasmus and Ervin Santana.  Obviously not going after Rasmus now and I don't think we are going to really spend on a pitcher.  Maybe we could have signed an OF for $3M that is a good defender and platoon your way to decent offense to go with it, then had money fro Ervin or to take on salary via trade.

 

I would also note that the 2012 and 2013 Twins were more of a destination for the reclamation project like Brett Anderson.  A guy like that needs innings and he is probably going to come by them easier somewhere else (I think that is why Boras wanted Pelfrey to sign here initially and why Harden chose MN).   We have three guys locked in, Nolasco, Hughes, and Gibson.  Two other guys we really want to see succeed, Pelfrey and Milone, and two youngs guys we want to get innings (May and Meyer).

[zenser]

I tend to agree with the article and many of the previous comments. Is there room to take a risk on a guy who could bounce back from injury? Sure there is. Is there room for an impact arm? Sure there is. Is there room for a seasoned veteran who will mainly be an innings eater? Here is where I say no. If we are not going to gamble on a guy who may or may not bounce back from injury or sign an arm that will push the rest of the rotation to be better, then why bother? At some point, we need to get a good look at what May, Meyer, Milone, Darnell, and possibly depending on how the first part of his season goes, Barrios. Voglsong and Volquez and who ever else falls into the retread section really does not provide the roster any value. Like the article states, we don't know how serious they are in these guys but lets hope it isn't very serious.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Ryan has been saying in pretty much every interview that the Twins need more starting pitching. The rotation may be full, but I get the sense that it could get a lot more crowded by Spring Training.

 

I think Ryan's highest cost target is probably Ervin Santana. I think the chances that Ryan signs a bigger name will depend on how long it takes for Lester and Scherzer to sign, because he's pretty much stated that he's "waiting for the market to develop"... I don't really understand the logic there, but I'm not a GM.

 

Brett Anderson, Justin Masterson, Brandon McCarthy, Edinson Volquez, Frankie, Ervin Santana are probably the best Twins fans can hope for this offseason.

[tobi0040]

Ryan has been saying in pretty much every interview that the Twins need more starting pitching. The rotation may be full, but I get the sense that it could get a lot more crowded by Spring Training.

 

I think Ryan's highest cost target is probably Ervin Santana. I think the chances that Ryan signs a bigger name will depend on how long it takes for Lester and Scherzer to sign, because he's pretty much stated that he's "waiting for the market to develop"... I don't really understand the logic there, but I'm not a GM.

 

Brett Anderson, Justin Masterson, Brandon McCarthy, Edinson Volquez, Frankie, Ervin Santana are probably the best Twins fans can hope for this offseason.

 

I agree, but I don't think Ervin is in that group.  I think we want a one year deal and my gut says he gets more. I could be wrong though, would have thought that last off-season.

[nicksaviking]

I'll take any pitcher that only requires one year and can manage a minimum 7.5 K/9 in the AL. 

 

Otherwise, not interested.

 

Also, if the Twins give one spot to Pelfrey or Milone and make May and Meyer fight for another spot, I won't be happy.  The loser of the May/Meyer fight should have a shot at the Pelfrey/Milone spot also.  In fact, unless Pelfrey/Milone really overwhelm, both spots should be going to the youngsters. 

[Mike Sixel]

Get a difference maker. Or, use the young guys. If they sign 2 mediocre guys, I'll be very confused. If they sign one, I'll just be disappointed.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I don't think the Twins are that interested in it, and really, I can't blame them. I'd just as soon let Milone and Pelfrey battle for a spot, and give the other to Trevor May or Alex Meyer, rather than throwing a bunch of money at someone like Edinson Volquez or Ryan Vogelsong.

 

This is my thought too... I want to see May and Meyer. My consistent line all year is that if they 're going to get a starting pitcher, make sure he's at least capable of being a #2 (like Nolasco and Hughes a year ago. 

[Willihammer]

Yes, the Twins already have two broken starters on the roster, possibly 3 with Meyer. Naturally, they should seek more.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I agree, but I don't think Ervin is in that group.  I think we want a one year deal and my gut says he gets more. I could be wrong though, would have thought that last off-season.

 

The only reason I think Santana would still be in play is that Ryan allegedly offered him a 3yr deal last Jan/Feb after the Twins had already signed Nolasco and Hughes and re-signed Pelfrey. This year Milone is an addition, but otherwise, it's essentially all the same guys one year older. One would hope that a year later May and Meyer would have cemented a place in the rotation but I think Ryan would rather have them force the issue by beating out the competition in Spring Training.

[nicksaviking]

The only reason I think Santana would still be in play is that Ryan allegedly offered him a 3yr deal last Jan/Feb after the Twins had already signed Nolasco and Hughes and re-signed Pelfrey. This year Milone is an addition, but otherwise, it's essentially all the same guys one year older. One would hope that a year later May and Meyer would have cemented a place in the rotation but I think Ryan would rather have them force the issue by beating out the competition in Spring Training.

 

That's likely Ryan's thought, but I don't like it.  They're too old to hope they will force the issue.  They need the issue forced upon them.  No more coddling and pats on the back, turn these guys into fighters and less reliant on organizational glad handing.  If their psyche is too fragile to handle the expectations of a MLB rotation at 25, odds are they're never going to be mentally strong enough to be useful. 

Edited December 5, 2014 by nicksaviking

[Dantes929]

Meyer and May would appear to be more likely to give top end pitching than Milone or Pelfrey so I guess I would want Hughes, Gibson, Noalsco, Meyer and May with Milone and Pelfrey in long relief ready to replace whoever falters with hopefully Berrios forcing the issue by late summer.   What I have brought up before but never been explained to me is why, money aside, Nolasco has a spot sewn up and Milone does not.    Milone actually has the best career resume on the entire staff.   Sub 4 ERA in the American League while Nolasco has a career 4.48 ERA in the NL.  Nolasco has better strikeout rate but isn't that trumped by Milone's better WHIP?   Milone even had a better 2014 when all was said and done.     .    

[Dantes929]

 

The only reason I think Santana would still be in play is that Ryan allegedly offered him a 3yr deal last Jan/Feb after the Twins had already signed Nolasco and Hughes and re-signed Pelfrey. This year Milone is an addition, but otherwise, it's essentially all the same guys one year older. One would hope that a year later May and Meyer would have cemented a place in the rotation but I think Ryan would rather have them force the issue by beating out the competition in Spring Training.

But I would contend they kind of did.   May had a fantastic minor league year and got his feet wet in 2014 where admittedly he did poorly but to me he has earned his shot in 2015.   I also believe Meyer has earned his shot.     Not his fault he was on innings and pitch limits.   He had a few duds but I will happily accept a guy that I think can throw shutouts when he is on even if it means a bad start every 4 or 5 outings.    Quality start average for a major leaguer is about 50%.    Meyer had 10 quality starts out of 27 but would have likely had 7 more but for the pitch limits.   Another thing is that most of those starts were really high quality with only 0 or 1 run given up.   I agree the Twins should take off the kid gloves with regards to these guys.    I do believe they have earned their shot though.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

It's up to Molitor and Neil Allen to say that now. Terry Ryan is going most likely sign one or two more starters this offseason. It'll be up to the pitching coach and the Manager to determine playing time.

 

maybe they'll go with a six-man rotation? Wouldn't that be bonkers?

[SwainZag]

The only reason I think Santana would still be in play is that Ryan allegedly offered him a 3yr deal last Jan/Feb after the Twins had already signed Nolasco and Hughes and re-signed Pelfrey. This year Milone is an addition, but otherwise, it's essentially all the same guys one year older. One would hope that a year later May and Meyer would have cemented a place in the rotation but I think Ryan would rather have them force the issue by beating out the competition in Spring Training.

 

When it came out that Ryan had offered Santana/Garza, Meyer had pitched a total of 70 innings above A ball and May was walking 4 batters with a 4.51 ERA in AA.  After they both showed a lot of promise last year, I can't see a guy like Santana being offered a 3-4 year deal at this point.

 

I do think anyone who realistically thought that the Twins were going to be serious contenders for Lester/Scherzer were living in a fantasy land.  

[dxpavelka]

You can never have too much pitching, especially quality starting pitching.  If you do, there is always a market for it.  I have no problem bringing in more arms and making every guy who shows up at Fort Meyers fight for a job. 

[tobi0040]

You can never have too much pitching, especially quality starting pitching.  If you do, there is always a market for it.  I have no problem bringing in more arms and making every guy who shows up at Fort Meyers fight for a job. 

 

I agree in concept. But the Twins are not going to owe a guy $38M over three years and give Trevor May his job if he has a better spring training.

[Lonestar]

I don't think there is room for both Pelfrey and Milone on 25-man roster.  There isn't room for either of them in the rotation unless someone breaks.

 

I would start Meyer in AAA to delay his service time -- not for arbitration purposes but for free agency purposes.  I would rather have almost 7 years of team control than just 6, especially with a Boras client.

 

I like the idea of signing McCarthy and Anderson.  May and Meyer will work their way into the rotation eventually.  Hopefully Nolasco regains his value and can be flipped.

[nicksaviking]

You can never have too much pitching, especially quality starting pitching.  If you do, there is always a market for it.  I have no problem bringing in more arms and making every guy who shows up at Fort Meyers fight for a job. 

 

I'd like to agree but when you throw the word "quality" into your sentance you've taken the Twins out of your hypothetical over the last half decade.  If the team didn't have a track record of deciding rotation spots based much more heavily on experience than potential then I'd say the more the merrier, however, even experience with spotty results seems to weigh more than potential with this club often times.

Edited December 5, 2014 by nicksaviking

[nicksaviking]

 

I like the idea of signing McCarthy and Anderson.  May and Meyer will work their way into the rotation eventually.  Hopefully Nolasco regains his value and can be flipped.

 

McCarthy will probably require three years or so, would you really want that? I sure wouldn't.  Not even two.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The one-year-make-good-deal looked promising before the Twins crippled their outfield defense - If I were Brett Anderson, I'd be looking to get someone with a better defense to sign me. Also, Target Field was originally thought to be a pitcher's park, but it seems to have normalized a bit. It's not really that appealing on a one year deal, unless a guy thinks he can be Phil Hughes 2.0 . . .

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think there is room for both Pelfrey and Milone on 25-man roster.  There isn't room for either of them in the rotation unless someone breaks.

 

I would start Meyer in AAA to delay his service time -- not for arbitration purposes but for free agency purposes.  I would rather have almost 7 years of team control than just 6, especially with a Boras client.

 

I like the idea of signing McCarthy and Anderson.  May and Meyer will work their way into the rotation eventually.  Hopefully Nolasco regains his value and can be flipped.

 

he's 25 already.....time to move him up if he's close to ready.....

[USAFChief]

If by full, you mean in the same way my wallet is full because there's twenty $1 bills in there...no room for $5's, $10's, $20's, or heaven forbid Benjamin's, then yeah. It's full.