Article: Where Are We Now? What's Next?

[Seth Stohs]

On Wednesday, the Torii Hunter signing became official. The Winter Meetings are next week and more moves, or at least discussions that could lead to more transactions, are likely. We’ll take a look at where the Twins are right now and what they should be addressing the rest of this offseason.With the addition of Hunter along with the six arbitration-eligible players being tendered contracts, let’s take a look at what the current 25 man roster could look like.

 

POTENTIAL LINEUP:

SS – Danny Santana

1B – Joe Mauer

2B – Brian Dozier

DH – Kennys Vargas

RF – Torii Hunter

LF – Oswaldo Arcia

3B – Trevor Plouffe

C – Kurt Suzuki

CF – Aaron Hicks

 

BENCH:

Backup C – Eric Fryer or Josmil Pinto

Backup Infielder – Eduardo Escobar

Backup Outfielder – Jordan Schafer

Utility Player – Eduardo Nunez, Chris Herrmann, Chris Colabello, Chris Parmelee

 

SUMMARY:

 

The Minnesota Twins offense was very good in 2013. The addition of Hunter should make it even better. That said, guys like Vargas and Santana will have to fight off a sophomore slump. I put Aaron Hicks in centerfield again, though that isn’t a given by any means. He could platoon with Schafer, the other being the fourth outfielder on any given day. The bench as of today would contain Eduardo Escobar who showed in 2014 that he can be an everyday player. Josmil Pinto didn’t take necessary strides behind the plate, but he could compete with Eric Fryer for the backup catcher spot. He could also get some time at DH should Vargas falter or get a day at first base. I left Eduardo Nunez as their the 25^th man, a guy who could play anywhere in an emergency. A healthy Chris Colabello would be a better offensive option.

 

WHO IS CLOSE?

 

First, we also have to take a look at who could be coming. Miguel Sano's and Byron Buxton’s debuts were delayed by injury in 2014 and their timetables for arrival at this point are completely up in the air. Eddie Rosario came back from a terrible year to play quite well for six weeks in the Arizona Fall League. He’s not ready, but he’s fairly close. Who knows? Maybe he could even compete for the centerfield job out of spring training. Jorge Polanco is further away, but he could be a candidate by later in the season to help in the middle infield.

 

WHO COULD BE ADDED?

 

If the Twins want Aaron Hicks, Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario to spend most of the year developing in the minor leagues, which could be beneficial, maybe someone like Eric Young, who was non-tendered by the Mets, would be a good option for platooning in centerfield with Jordan Schafer. The acquisition of Peter Bourjos has not been completely ruled out.

 

Could they be interested in a veteran backup catcher like Jose Molina? How about bringing back AJ Pierzynski to be the backup backstop?

 

STARTING ROTATION

 

RHP Phil Hughes

RHP Ricky Nolasco

RHP Kyle Gibson

RHP Trevor May

LHP Tommy Milone (or Mike Pelfrey, Alex Meyer, Logan Darnell)

 

SUMMARY:

 

Hughes and Nolasco were last year’s big acquisitions. Hughes turned out golden. Nolasco struggled mightily. Kyle Gibson got through his first full season and showed he can be a solid middle-of-the-rotation. Should Trevor May be handed a spot on the opening day starting staff based on how well he finished the season, or should he compete with several others for two rotations spots?

 

WHO IS CLOSE?

 

Logan Darnell, Trevor May and Alex Meyer were all good at Rochester last year. All three should compete for a starter job or a bullpen spot early in the season, if not opening day. Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey and Jason Wheeler all pitched well in AA in 2013 and could be ready later in the season. Sean Gilmartin could be a back-end starter late in the season, if he isn’t lost in the Rule 5 draft.

 

WHO COULD BE ADDED?

 

Justin Masterson’s name continues to come up, but all of the AL Central teams and many other teams are also interested. Max Scherzer and Jon Lester aren’t coming here. We know that. James Shields is in the next tier, and I don’t think he would come here. So, who else is in that next tier of pitchers? Masterson is one name, but what about a guy like Brandon McCarthy? The Twins had interest in Ervin Santana last year. Should the Twins be interested in two-time Tommy John guys like Kris Medlin and Brandon Beachy (who were both non-tendered by the Braves this week)? Or should they consider dealing top prospects (not named Buxton or Sano) to try to acquire a Jeff Samardzija or a Mat Latos? Or, do they simply go with Trevor May and Alex Meyer and count on the minor league system that they have been building the last two or three years?

 

BULLPEN

 

Closer – Glen Perkins

RHP – Casey Fien

LHP – Brian Duensing

RHP – Michael Tonkin

LHP Caleb Thielbar

RP – Mike Pelfrey

LR – Tommy Milone, Logan Darnell, Ryan Pressly, Lester Oliveros, AJ Achter, Aaron Thompson, Alex Meyer.

 

SUMMARY

 

Having Glen Perkins at the end of a very good thing. Casey Fien was terrific through August. Brian Duensing was good through July. Thielbar just continues to get the job done. After that, there are some question marks. Is Michael Tonkin ready to take on a spot for the full season? If Mike Pelfrey is healthy and able to regain his velocity, he could certainly be an asset out of the bullpen. And then there is a log jam of options for the long relief role, including some players already mentioned as back end of the starting rotation options.

 

WHO IS CLOSE?

 

Several of the options already mentioned are guys who are close to ready to contribute out of the Twins bullpen, if they aren’t already. In addition, the Twins have other hard-throwing options who could be ready by midseason. Zack Jones missed most of the 2014 season due to an aneurysm and a blood clot, but he can touch 97. 2014 second-round draft pick Nick Burdi and his triple-digit fastball and 90+ mph slider could be up very quickly. 2014 fifth-round draft pick Jake Reed was so impressive that he could be on the fast track. And don't forget JT Chargois. Despite missing the last two years, he was throwing 99 at Instructs and could move quickly.

 

WHAT COULD BE ADDED?

 

We’re read reports that the Twins were in on Jason Frasor before he re-signed with the Royals. To be honest, I don’t see a need for adding any major bullpen arms. In recent years they acquired Fien and Jared Burton and others as minor league free agents. I’d much prefer the Twins go that route than spend any extra funds on bullpen options. They need to replace Burton and Anthony Swarzak, but as you can see above, there are plenty of internal options.

 

=====

 

So there you have it, a quick preview of what could be going through the minds of the Twins as the winter meetings approach. They can continue to look at adding free agents and have several options who can still be removed from the current 40-man roster. They certainly have a lot of good trade chips if they are able to incrementally improve their starting rotation. The Twins can also still add a player in the Rule 5 draft if they were to DFA a player.

 

Torii Hunter was move number one for the Twins this offseason. If it’s the only one, Twins fans should be disappointed. However, there is little reason to believe that it will be. It is clear that the ownership is just fine with spending money if it will improve the team. Having Molitor, and now having Hunter, will give them credibility with free agents.

 

Will they make moves during the winter meetings? Maybe. If so, I think it would be more likely on the minor league free agent or on the trade front. I think they’ll also make a Rule 5 pick next Thursday. But my opinion is that they should wait out the pitching market at this point and see which quality candidates are interested in playing for the Twins.

 

What do you think?

 

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[jokin]

Pretty good summary, Seth.  I've been waiting for someone to float this trial balloon:  

 

How about bringing back AJ Pierzynski to be the backup backstop?

The perfect name to pick up to continue the "break-up-the-country-club(house) with more aging-gamers-and-grit" offseason theme.

 

I am also surprised that Andrew Albers and Johan Santana, Craig Breslow and Jesse Crain weren't mentioned. They could trade for Grant Balfour and it would likely only cost them a C- prospect- in so that the Rays could get out of the $7M contract.  Back to the Future, Part Deux, indeed.

Edited December 4, 2014 by jokin

[Otwins]

I am in favor of signing two free agent pitchers in the mid range. Start Meyer and May in the bullpen. After the injuries or ineffectiveness of a couple starters Meyer and May move into the rotation. That gives time for the higher upside minor league relievers to progress. Most of the concern has been about the starting pitching but I feel there is just as much if not more to worry about from the bullpen.  Let Meyer and May have success in short stretches before starting them on the road against Oakland (May's 1st start). This will also help keep their innings down. IMHO Bret Anderson makes sense on an incentive laden deal because when he gets hurt you move Meyer or May out of pen into the rotation. At least he should help you when he pitches. Unlike Nolasco. The other targets have been mentioned frequently on this site- Masterson, Santana, Liriano.  I would wait as there does not seem to be as many teams looking for pitching as most years.

[Shane Wahl]

Santana, Mauer, Hunter, Vargas, Dozier, Arcia, Plouffe, Suzuki, Hicks with

 

Pinto, Schafer, Escobar, Herrmann would appear to be the position players.

 

Hughes, Gibson, Nolaso, Millone, May with

 

Darnell, Oliveros, Thielbar, Meyer, Duensing, Fien, Perkins

 

Keeping Duensing is ridiculous. But it might very well happen.

[stringer bell]

IMHO, the Twins have to send Hicks to the minors to start the season. His performance has been poor at the major league level and he hasn't mastered AAA. He has shown that spring training stats (for him) should be disregarded. It doesn't make sense to platoon him as the RH component (they only start between 20-30% of the games) because he still needs development. Find a 4A player to platoon with Schafer to start the season. If Hicks tears up AAA, recall him as the full-time CF, if Rosario or Buxton jump ahead of him, so be it.

[Thegrin]

stringer is right. Forget Hicks. 

 

The fox in this henhouse is how will Molitor manage these assets.

 

In Minnesota, due to the cold weather, no results really count.  Bad pitchers (Hughes, Gibson) aren't really that bad.  Good hitters really aren't that good (Kubel and Collabello). 

 

Our experience told us what Gardy would probably do.

Who will Molly continue to run out there and who ends up in his doghouse?

 

Those are the questions and we will be second guessing him all the way.

[Homer Hanky]

I love your summary... I think with Torii in the fold that Mr. Ryan will be a bit more aggressive in addressing some other issues. I think with Torii encouragement... the Twins will be more aggressive. 

 

What do you guys think?

Edited December 4, 2014 by Homer Hanky

[tobi0040]

stringer is right. Forget Hicks. 

 

The fox in this henhouse is how will Molitor manage these assets.

 

In Minnesota, due to the cold weather, no results really count.  Bad pitchers (Hughes, Gibson) aren't really that bad.  Good hitters really aren't that good (Kubel and Collabello). 

 

Our experience told us what Gardy would probably do.

Who will Molly continue to run out there and who ends up in his doghouse?

 

Those are the questions and we will be second guessing him all the way.

 

I thought all along that Hicks would be handed CF one last time.  The signing of Torii makes that a virtual lock in my opinion.  When they talk about the culture, attitude, being a professional I see the broader locker room, but also I think they are talking specifically about Aaron Hicks. I think one of the main reasons Torii is here is to play along side Hicks and get on him and hopefully salvage the former first round picks career.  I am guessing the thinking is that if Torii can't motivate Hicks he is a lost cause.  And if he does get motivated and prepares better and his numbers don't improve, then he should be cut anyway (or told to go to E-Town and pitch out of the pen).

[tobi0040]

Pretty good summary, Seth.  I've been waiting for someone to float this trial balloon:  

 

The perfect name to pick up to continue the "break-up-the-country-club(house) with more aging-gamers-and-grit" offseason theme.

 

I am also surprised that Andrew Albers and Johan Santana, Craig Breslow and Jesse Crain weren't mentioned. They could trade for Grant Balfour and it would likely only cost them a C- prospect- in so that the Rays could get out of the $7M contract.  Back to the Future, Part Deux, indeed.

 

I think we are probably done on position players outside of maybe a bench pickup if one we like hits the waiver wire.

 

With Fien and Duensing back, I think we probably don't add another reliever and lean on our system to fill the void.

 

I think the off-season will conclude with one starting pitcher in the 1-8 or 1-10 range.  Someone that is about 30-33.  Career ERA in the mid 4's.  Probably had 1-2 good years out of 7-8 so far and we are somehow hoping they have that year again here.  Probably missed some time with a shoulder injury or TJ.  The types we seem to love that never pan out.

 

If my prediction on the pitcher is accurate, we will have $26M locked into three players (Hunter, Pelfrey, and the FA pitcher).  About 29% of our payroll devoted to three guys that will likely not produce a MLB average season (Hunter will likely be slightly above average for a typical RF offensively, well below defensively).  That is certainly an interesting way to construct a roster.

[jay]

In the Strib today regarding the $10.5M just spent on Hunter...

 

Will the contract limit Ryan in trying to sign other free agents?

 

“No, we’re still in decent shape. We still have payroll flexibility,” Ryan said.

 

Ryan added that any other free agents signed will be pitchers because he felt the team was in decent shape around the diamond.

[Mike Sixel]

If the Ryan quote is real.....they are going with Hicks/Shaefer? Super. It's worked so well the last two years not having a legit CF, why not try a third year?

 

I suppose it is possible Rosario is here out of spring training, but it seems unlike the Twins to do that. No way Buxton is here for at least 2-3 months...

 

I think, if their strategy is to abandon defense, they are still short of offense.

[tobi0040]

If the Ryan quote is real.....they are going with Hicks/Shaefer? Super. It's worked so well the last two years not having a legit CF, why not try a third year?

 

I suppose it is possible Rosario is here out of spring training, but it seems unlike the Twins to do that. No way Buxton is here for at least 2-3 months...

 

I think, if their strategy is to abandon defense, they are still short of offense.

 

They have probably talked themselves into....Hicks floundered becasue he didn't have anyone to mentor him.  I see no way we pay Hunter $10.5M to mentor guys, then send Hicks to AAA.  Zero reason to believe that will happen.

 

With Arcia and Hunter in the corners, I am hoping we sign a cheetah trained to catch baseballs and put him in center.

Edited December 4, 2014 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

They have probably talked themselves into....Hicks floundered becasue he didn't have anyone to mentor him.  I see no way we pay Hunter $10.5M to mentor guys, then send Hicks to AAA.  Zero reason to believe that will happen.

 

Agreed, all Hicks needs is someone to tell him to swing more, that will fix things.

[tobi0040]

Agreed, all Hicks needs is someone to tell him to swing more, that will fix things.

 

Day 1 is figure out who the pitcher is before arriving to the park.

[Homer Hanky]

 I see no way we pay Hunter $10.5M to mentor guys, then send Hicks to AAA.  Zero reason to believe that will happen.

 

 

 

Agreed... if Hicks really struggled because of the mental game I think Torii will help that.

[jay]

If the Ryan quote is real.....they are going with Hicks/Shaefer? Super. It's worked so well the last two years not having a legit CF, why not try a third year?

 

"Ryan added that any other free agents signed will be pitchers..."

 

Bourjos?

[Mike Sixel]

"Ryan added that any other free agents signed will be pitchers..."

 

Bourjos?

 

you missed this part:

 

"he felt the team was in decent shape around the diamond."

[stringer bell]

So this is a two-fer?  They sign Hunter and he fixes right and center field?  Nonsense!  If Hicks can play, he should play, but he needs to master AAA.  No showing in the spring can change what happened previously.  I think the Twins paid Torii Hunter market value (and ignored his age) to play right field.  The intangibles may have helped to make the price tag easier to swallow, but if Torii doesn't perform, no amount of mentorship and leadership is going to make his pay check worth it.

[tobi0040]

So this is a two-fer?  They sign Hunter and he fixes right and center field?  Nonsense!  If Hicks can play, he should play, but he needs to master AAA.  No showing in the spring can change what happened previously.  I think the Twins paid Torii Hunter market value (and ignored his age) to play right field.  The intangibles may have helped to make the price tag easier to swallow, but if Torii doesn't perform, no amount of mentorship and leadership is going to make his pay check worth it.

 

While I agree with you.  What should happen and what will happen are different.

[jay]

you missed this part:

 

"he felt the team was in decent shape around the diamond."

 

Take that to mean what you want.  I don't take it as excluding the team from making any other moves to improve from "decent", but that any remaining FA dollars will be prioritized to pitching.  Trades and such aren't easy to clinch, so it might well be that we don't see any more moves on position players. 

 

However, last I checked, free agency isn't the only method of acquiring players -- despite the overweighted attention it receives.

[Mike Sixel]

I hope you are right. I hope they add a CF somehow.

[tobi0040]

I hope you are right. I hope they add a CF somehow.

 

We still have Duensing.....

[Willihammer]

IMO the situation is the same. They need at least one front of the rotation starting pitcher to pair with Hughes and to bump everyone down a peg and improve the bullpen.

 

I would keep May in the rotation though. He has been healthy and looks like he could be a workhorse, even if he never turns into an ace.

[blindeke]

We still have Duensing.....

 

did the Twins officially offer Duensing arbitration?

[Trevor0333]

I'm indifferent to the Torii signing, he's definitely a below average fielder but I'm not sure it's as bad as the numbers suggest.

 

It's been stated many times by others as well. My issue is the 15-25 mill wasted on payroll on below replacement level players.

 

Let the kids play!

[SweetOne69]

did the Twins officially offer Duensing arbitration?

Yes!

 

They offered arbitration to all 6 eligible players.

[Brandon]

The Twins have Santana to go out to CF if Hicks doesn't make the Team.  This will all be decided in spring training and throughout the first few months of the season.  But I suspect Hicks has a shot and Santana is there in case he cant cut it.  I know TR was concerned because Hicks wasn't driving the ball during his September call up.  Regardless I believe this season is Hicks last chance to make it. 

 

Also as far as the rest of the roster is concerned.  I think the Twins value stability and experience so they probably only want one maybe 2 rookies in the pen at a time.  so I can see them signing a reliever if they can find one they like.  The Twins will not spend big there but they are usually successful in finding good relievers so I wont question much who they sign there.

 

The rotation is the main area of concern.  My fear is they sign someone like Masterson who is a question mark going into next year.  I would rather the Twins trade for a solid pitcher then sign a question mark.  we already have Nolasco as our question mark and while I am confident he will turn it around you never know it may not be as much of a turn around as I hope.  based on the free agents out there I like Liriano, Volquez, and Ervin Santana.  If the Twins decide to sign pitchers coming back from injury I hope they sign several like Scott Baker, Johan Santana, and Anderson or Medlin. (Ok Anderson would have to be one for sure then any of the others as a back up option).  Scott Baker and Johan is going with the theme of getting the band back together they are not necessary but would be fun to see what they have left at this point.

[James Richter]

I hope they have enough sense to target extreme GB pitchers.

[dxpavelka]

you missed this part:

 

"he felt the team was in decent shape around the diamond."

Because I believe EVERYTHING a GM says.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Because I believe EVERYTHING a GM says.

Generally I agree, but TR has been pretty open, direct, and accurate with his public statements recently.