Article: Torii Hunter Signing Is Hard To Figure

[nicksaviking]

Yep, you're definitely on to something here- there weren't a lot of options.  I've written about it before, but since the Twins were insistent on going this route, a more defensible case can be made for the soon-to-be 34 year old Rios (and his estimated one-year price of $8.5M would have saved them some money, besides).

 

And presumably the team wouldn't need a ten second delay for their news conferences.

[jokin]

When they announce that Hunter is taking over RF, that significantly reduces the likely possibilities that can happen between now and March.  It's basically either Arcia to LF, AAA, or traded.

 

And though I missed it the first time in yesterday's presser, Ryan also confirmed that Arcia was headed to LF.

[jokin]

And presumably the team wouldn't need a ten second delay for their news conferences.

 

I said it right after the presser-  Isn't it likely that Terry Ryan wishes the State of Minnesota had a "lemon law" that applies to professional athletes?

[tobi0040]

Or DH.  Or they change their mind.  Or Hunter DHs some and Arcia plays both RF and LF. 

 

There's scenarios where Hunter doesn't stay in RF either.  Or a 39 year old gets injured early in the year.  Or fails to perform.

 

The OF defense isn't going to be great either way.  Of all the things to possibly not like about signing Hunter, I don't understand making a big fuss about which corner Arcia plays in.  Ideally, he probably wouldn't play in either.

 

I think we have a 22 year old DH that is 270 pounds. We are content letting him ride there.

 

We have a 1B that isn't moving.

 

Given that Arcia is a long term RF in Minnesota, I think we should leave him there.  I don't think moving a 23 year old who struggles in the OF around is a good idea.

[TheLeviathan]

Even strike out pitchers benefit from defense. I don't really get how saying the defense is bad somehow "excuses" pitchers. The defense is bad.

 

I, for one, would like to utilize the following infield:

 

3B - Parmalee SS - Vargas  2B - Arcia 

 

Just so we can bash the pitchers for using the "excuse" that they have a bad defense.  Buncha babies!

[ashbury]

Yeah, which is on par with every other Twins mid-season trade lately.

I don't think expiring contracts have brought much in trade ever since they changed the draft compensation rules.  The draft pick no longer goes along with the player - *poof* goes the value.

[tobi0040]

I, for one, would like to utilize the following infield:

 

3B - Parmalee SS - Vargas  2B - Arcia 

 

Just so we can bash the pitchers for using the "excuse" that they have a bad defense.  Buncha babies!

 

This is quite interesting.  In 35 games, the worst single game report has Hunters range at average (Twins scouts).  And he could slide into CF for a few games and we would "not miss much".

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/12/04/twinsights-terry-ryan-defensive-metrics-twins-ignore/

[TheLeviathan]

This is quite interesting.  In 35 games, the worst single game report has Hunters range at average (Twins scouts).  And he could slide into CF for a few games and we would "not miss much".

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/12/04/twinsights-terry-ryan-defensive-metrics-twins-ignore/

 

Now I'm the one that needs a drink....holy crap.

[tobi0040]

Now I'm the one that needs a drink....holy crap.

 

I hear Goin has been spotted slumped over in a booth at The Local.

Edited December 4, 2014 by tobi0040

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I like the part where Terry Ryan says "I'm not going to say that a lot [of the defensive metrics] aren't accurate . . but a lot of them aren't accurate either."

 

*slow clap*.

 

We don't care what the score is, we're champions on the inside.

 

Surely one of only two players in the league that was WORSE than the Twins' RF will somehow improve the defense in RF.

[dxpavelka]

Are you sure it didn't negatively affect him?  Can you say, with certainty, that he couldn't have been even better with a league average defensive outfield?

 

I agree that shifts in organizational philosophies take time, but the truth is that this defense is hurting the pitching staff.  That is demonstrable in many, many ways.  This is a team that is awful at preventing runs and pitching is only part of that equation.  

 

Saying a bad defense is a lame excuse for poor pitching is like blaming a QB for a bad completion percentage when his receivers are dropping the ball.  Or a PG for not getting enough assists when his scorers are shooting 20%.  These things go hand in hand and having a poor defense will hurt your pitching staff.

 

One would think this team (and Torii Hunter in particular) would understand this.  The long run they had in the playoffs was built on the back of a team that consistently sacrificed offense for defense and prided itself on not "giving" outs.  The defensive outfield we look to be fielding this year looks like the damn Salvation Army of outs in the outfield.

No I can't say with certainty that Hughes would not have been even better with better outfield defense behind him any more than you can say that he would have.  However, the fact that he pretty much put up the best year of his career leads me to believe that his ceiling wouldn't have been much higher.

[jay]

No I can't say with certainty that Hughes would not have been even better with better outfield defense behind him any more than you can say that he would have. 

 

I can understand questioning the defensive metrics available today, but I don't think I've seen defense completely dismissed as a thing before...

 

I don't see any way to question that better defense results in better results for your pitchers.

[Mike Sixel]

This is quite interesting.  In 35 games, the worst single game report has Hunters range at average (Twins scouts).  And he could slide into CF for a few games and we would "not miss much".

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/12/04/twinsights-terry-ryan-defensive-metrics-twins-ignore/

 

Yup, it's 1999 still.....so eye tests over 162 games (which is what defensive metrics are) are useless, but eye tests over 30 are good. Got it. And, if the GM of a MLB really doesn't know how a metric is calculated right now? That's just not good.

[tobi0040]

Yup, it's 1999 still.....so eye tests over 162 games (which is what defensive metrics are) are useless, but eye tests over 30 are good. Got it. And, if the GM of a MLB really doesn't know how a metric is calculated right now? That's just not good.

 

I don't want a meddling owner like Daniel Snyder or Jerry Jones.  But I would like some pointed questions to the staff, particularly the GM when we make decisions like this.

 

Force the guy to do a little bit of bench-marking with peers.  Ask for a detailed presentation on why our approach is the right one. Or how about go back 3-5 years on all free agency decisions.  What our thought process was at the time and if the strategy worked.  If not, lets re-evaluate the strategy.

[nicksaviking]

Yup, it's 1999 still.....so eye tests over 162 games (which is what defensive metrics are) are useless, but eye tests over 30 are good. Got it. And, if the GM of a MLB really doesn't know how a metric is calculated right now? That's just not good.

 

Well I highly question their reporting, but aren't defensive metrics still based on an obvservation of range as well?  30 out of 162 is a pretty good representative sample size actually.

 

I question the Twins ability to use advanced metrics, but I guess I don't know why a Twins scout trying to determine range would be any less credible than the John Does who are recording the data for the defensive metrics.

Edited December 4, 2014 by nicksaviking

[jay]

I question the Twins ability to use advanced metrics, but I guess I don't know why a Twins scout trying to determine range would be any less credible than the John Does who are recording the data for the defensive metrics.

 

I think the question there is how to explain the big gap between the two...

 

If TR and the Twins' scouts say his range is no worse than average, why is that so different than the metrics that are saying his range is terrible?

[TheLeviathan]

No I can't say with certainty that Hughes would not have been even better with better outfield defense behind him any more than you can say that he would have.  However, the fact that he pretty much put up the best year of his career leads me to believe that his ceiling wouldn't have been much higher.

 

I can say, with basically 100% certainty that a bad defense hurts a pitcher and a good defense helps one.  Perhaps, if you'd like to test your theory, we should play Vargas at 2B?  If defense is so utterly meaningless why do we even care where we play guys?

[NotTorii]

Just another reclaimation project!  A TR special ! He woujld settle to find that ONE successful vereran that was taken from the scrap pile so that some would say, "Geez, that Terry Ryan is really an astute baseball man." while the rest of the team flounders in medeocraty.  Firing Gardy was pointless as long as TR remains at the helm. 

 

My worst fears coming true - NOT TORRI!!!

[Mike Sixel]

I think the question there is how to explain the big gap between the two...

 

If TR and the Twins' scouts say his range is no worse than average, why is that so different than the metrics that are saying his range is terrible?

 

Great question......if Hunter's range is terrible, will anyone ask TR this question? Like, they totally asked about Nolasco and Pelfrey?

[kab21]

Probably not, but I think that really has more to do with the quality of the available OF than it does with the split among us TD posters.  Perhaps Alex Rios would have been the compromise that would have brought us together, I haven't heard too much complaining about him even though everyone would be counting on bounce back offensive and defensive production from him.

 

Alex Rios is no different than Torii Hunter.  He's younger but he's still very old for a baseball player.  He had a worse offensive season in a much better offensive park.  He also plays bad defense according to the same stats that people are grading Hunter by.  In addition to that the Twins are likely trying to convince him to come to MN for a year to rebuild value and he looks elsewhere.  That leaves the Twins with nothing.

[jorgenswest]

Awful pitching. Awful defense in the OF. Awful pitch framing.

 

Together they gave up 777 runs or 107 runs above league average and last in the AL. How many of those 107 is on the defense can be argued but is really unknown. We can probably agree that both need fixing. We probably also agree that nothing has been accomplished this winter that fixes either.

[tobi0040]

I think the question there is how to explain the big gap between the two...

 

If TR and the Twins' scouts say his range is no worse than average, why is that so different than the metrics that are saying his range is terrible?

 

I would suggest a potential for bias.  The UZR ratings and other metrics would seem relatively impartial to me.  Twins scouts rating a fan favorite, likeable guy that reminds us of when we were good may have rose colored glasses on. 

[nicksaviking]

I would suggest a potential for bias.  The UZR ratings and other metrics would seem relatively impartial to me.  Twins scouts rating a fan favorite, likeable guy that reminds us of when we were good may have rose colored glasses on. 

 

While I agree, seeing as the Twins clearly have an affinity for former players, UZR has a human element also.  I'd guess that both sides are wrong, in opposite directions of the scale of course.

 

People just need to build the robots and let them do the math.  Maybe it's just because I can barely use a calculator, but people + numbers seem to be a bad fit.

[tobi0040]

While I agree, seeing as the Twins clearly have an affinity for former players, UZR has a human element also.  I'd guess that both sides are wrong, in opposite directions of the scale of course.

 

People just need to build the robots and let them do the math.  Maybe it's just because I can barely use a calculator, but people + numbers seem to be a bad fit.

 

My understanding is the human element in UZR would not have Twins representation, or it would be very limited.  I could be wrong though. 

 

On a related note, my five year old daughter said I am the best daddy in the world.

[D. Hocking]

On a related note, my five year old daughter said I am the best daddy in the world.

It is when they are teens (or even a little younger)  that kids start using advanced stats to determine your rating - mercilessly at times.

[tobi0040]

It is when they are teens (or even a little younger)  that kids start using advanced stats to determine your rating - mercilessly at times.

 

Crap. 

[ashbury]

It is when they are teens (or even a little younger)  that kids start using advanced stats to determine your rating - mercilessly at times.

Teens apply their customized home-and-away factors, while spouses have the option of considering "Above Replacement Level".