Article: Torii Hunter Signing Is Hard To Figure

[GoGonzoJournal]

My views are posted here, unedited: http://gogonzojournal.com/top_stories/minnesota-twins-are-worse-with-torii-hunter

[TheLeviathan]

Although most fans haven't figured it out yet, this team has been moving away from the "pitch to contact" philosophy for years.  The problem is that it takes a long time to change an organizational philosophy and you do so from the the bottom of the system up.  The power arms will start hitting the big leagues soon enough.  Phil Hughes is somewhat of a high ball/fly ball pitcher and the outfield defense didn't negatively affect him.  Why?  Because he is a good pitcher, throws strikes and takes care of his own business.

 

Are you sure it didn't negatively affect him?  Can you say, with certainty, that he couldn't have been even better with a league average defensive outfield?

 

I agree that shifts in organizational philosophies take time, but the truth is that this defense is hurting the pitching staff.  That is demonstrable in many, many ways.  This is a team that is awful at preventing runs and pitching is only part of that equation.  

 

Saying a bad defense is a lame excuse for poor pitching is like blaming a QB for a bad completion percentage when his receivers are dropping the ball.  Or a PG for not getting enough assists when his scorers are shooting 20%.  These things go hand in hand and having a poor defense will hurt your pitching staff.

 

One would think this team (and Torii Hunter in particular) would understand this.  The long run they had in the playoffs was built on the back of a team that consistently sacrificed offense for defense and prided itself on not "giving" outs.  The defensive outfield we look to be fielding this year looks like the damn Salvation Army of outs in the outfield.

[Brandon]

Wait, did someone just type that the SP staff would be top 10 in the league next year?

Yeah if a few things get done.  we need a return to form from Nolasco.  (200 innings around a 4.00 ERA) This is not unreasonable to expect.  we also need to sign another pitcher who can throw 200 innings with an era in the high 3.s.  (this would replace Corriea's4.94 and May's 7.88 era in the rotation from last year) and May, Meyer, or Millone will need to step up and e a solid 5th starter and replacement fillers throughout the year to replace Deduno, Pelfry, Pino and others from last year.

 

Our bullpen is already pretty solid.  We could use 1 more solid arm but we do have lots of options in the minors.

[LaBombo]

Probably not a good sign for a personnel move when the most ardent proponents of it stress that "it's only a one year deal".

 

Interesting thought experiment.  How many seconds could the average TD poster listen to Dave St. Peter attempt to explain what this signing helps the Twins accomplish without, given the option and the means, Tasering him?  If the over/under is 20, I'm taking out a loan to bet on the under.

 

If nothing else, this move provided a moment of priceless comic irony.  A proud, supposedly rebuilding franchise in a sad state of decay and that has been widely criticized for its abhorrence of metrics signed a 39 year old outfielder who was statistically a replacement-level player last year. 

 

Then they provided a venue for him to publicly urinate on metrics and the people who pay attention to them.

 

The Twins are run by a man who allegedly went to college and majored in PR/marketing/BS/whatever. So that, not baseball knowledge, finance, or overall strategy, is his supposed strong suit. Having some doubts about how that works out.

Edited December 4, 2014 by LaBombo

[jay]

I think perhaps one lesson we can relearn from this is the problem with " wait until you have specific needs and/or are one player away before signing a free agent" line of reasoning.

 

The Twins pretty clearly needed an OFer...and the choices available were unimpressive, to say the least.

 

I think it's always better to add to what you have when you can, no matter where you are on the "competitive curve" so you aren't forced into worse choices later.

A bit off topic, but...

 

This is great in theory. It really is. We'd all love for the Twins to just go sign whatever free agents they might need that offseason at whatever cost that might be.

 

Unfortunately, it doesn't sound like a reality that Twins fans (nor most fans) can realistically expect.

[jorgenswest]

Yeah, I actually think this is actually a no-trade-clause that indicates a trade is even more likely.  Demanding a full-NTC means Hunter wants control of where he goes, and if Hunter insists on the final say of where he goes, that likely means he wants to be playing in the playoffs ten months from now.

It will give the Twins very little leverage to get anything in return.

[h2oface]

So we want a leopard to start having stripes?  These guys are what they are, it's not like they'll magically become Randy Johnson when they stop making excuses.

Didn't Randy Johnson magically become Randy Johnson? Phil Hughes magically became Phil Hughes last year (at least, for last year.........).  Alex Meyer could magically become Alex Meyer, too, even if he does take a couple years to get there.  So could Berrios, and Stewart. Some of our pitchers really could do it, especially if management would just let them pitch in the show before they are over 25 or 26.  Even Sandy Koufax magically became Sandy Koufax, but it took him a few years. 

[jay]

I'm not 100% on this, but I seem to recall Arcia playing in LF for the Twins some in the last few years and the broadcast team and the team itself saying he wasn't comfortable there and he was playing it very poorly.

I recall that as well, but the same things can be said about how he plays RF...

 

Arcia moving to LF because of signing Hunter is making an awful lot of assumptions in early December about how the roster will be finished in March.

[h2oface]

Wasn't Willingham signed to play right field, announced that he would play right field, and ended up back in left? A lot can happen before the season starts (including players that are dealt or dealt for or don't make the team) and even more can happen with injuries and replacements during the season.

I am getting more and more comfortable with Hunter returning, and realistically, I need to because I am a Twins' fan.

Edited December 4, 2014 by h2oface

[DocBauer]

Late to the party. Lots of genuflecting over the past 24 on this.

 

Not going go sign Cabrerra when he wants 5 years and $12-13M per. So Rios was the absolutely best choice, for 1 year, and less money, but younger, and a solid bounce back candidate. Really, really not sure I get this or completely understand it.

 

HOWEVER....upon further review....a couple points to be made.

 

1) While overpaying, the market is not good for FA OFers this year, it's only 1 year, and the whole non trade thing is nonsense. It just means Hunter gets to approve where he goes by waiving his clause if the Twins make a move.

 

2) If he can only produce what he did last season, he'd still be an offensive improvement over last season's LFers. And don't kid yourself, wherever he plays positionally, he's "replacing" last season's LF bungled mess. Our offense was so damn good already? Yes and no. It improved TREMENDOUSLY, but it was inconsistent. Not surprising with so many young players getting time and Mauer struggling. A solid veteran bat could help stabilize a bit.

 

3) Discount chemistry and leadership all you want, it still exists to some degree, and it would be nice to have someone in that role, even for part of a season. I still believe we've lost a lot of that the past few years with guys like Kubes and Hunter and Cuddyer gone.

 

4) I make no excuses for Hunter defensively and his various maladies that should have him bed-ridden as he can no longer walk, much less run, upright any longer. (I kid!) I DON'T have the answer, but can he be worse that Hammer and others out there on a consistent basis? I know we need to improve our OF defense, but, honestly, for 1 year, is Hunter really such a terrible option in retrospect? He still knows how to see, track and play a ball and take angles doesn't he? Or is his near 40 status also causing mental faculty loss? He can still catch what he gets to can't he? He still has a half-way decent arm and knows what base to throw to doesn't he? These things alone might actually make him an improvement, no matter how subtle, over last year's OF defense.

 

5) If the Twins pull a really smart move and make a play for someone like the ever popular Peter Bourjos from St. Louis to come in and play CF on an everyday basis, does your opinion of Hunter and the Twins OF change? It does for me.

 

6) I like the signing better if the veteran, 1 year contract Hunter moves to LF and Arcia, a long term option that we would be stupid to get rid of. Let me say that again....that we would be stupid to get rid of. Anyway...if the long term option Arcia got to stick in RF and the veteran 1 year contract veteran were to play LF, I likethe whole idea better.

[TheLeviathan]

Didn't Randy Johnson magically become Randy Johnson? Phil Hughes magically became Phil Hughes last year (at least, for last year.........).  Alex Meyer could magically become Alex Meyer, too, even if he does take a couple years to get there.  So could Berrios, and Stewart. Some of our pitchers really could do it, especially if management would just let them pitch in the show before they are over 25 or 26.  Even Sandy Koufax magically became Sandy Koufax, but it took him a few years.

 

I'm sorry, when exactly was Sandy Koufax Kevin Correia and when did that magic happen?

 

We systematically stocked our team with guys who were meant to rely on their defense and only very recently changed that philosophy. Fielding guys fully known to rely on defense and then not giving them a defense is really, really bad strategy.

[jorgenswest]

Although most fans haven't figured it out yet, this team has been moving away from the "pitch to contact" philosophy for years. The problem is that it takes a long time to change an organizational philosophy and you do so from the the bottom of the system up. The power arms will start hitting the big leagues soon enough. Phil Hughes is somewhat of a high ball/fly ball pitcher and the outfield defense didn't negatively affect him. Why? Because he is a good pitcher, throws strikes and takes care of his own business.

Phil Hughes was 6th among qualified pitchers in FIP (2.65) and 42nd (3.52) in ERA. Seems like something had a negative impact on his performance. By ratio, no qualified pitcher had a greater disparity in the ERA compared to their FIP.

 

It is true that as long as the Twins can put together a rotation of 5 guys that put up league top 10 FIPS, they will perform well in spite of the horrific outfield defense.

Edited December 4, 2014 by jorgenswest

[jokin]

Arcia moving to LF because of signing Hunter is making an awful lot of assumptions in early December about how the roster will be finished in March.

 

Terry Ryan said the Hunter is the RF. Multiple reporters, including the MLB.com guy that writes all of the content on the Twins own website (Rhett Bollinger)... have reported this and of Arcia's destination.  I have a hard time thinking that just-the-facts Bollinger just made this quote up out of whole cloth:

 

 

Hunter will start in right field for the Twins in 2015, as Oswaldo Arcia will move over from right field to left field. Hunter moved off center field to right field during the 2010 season while with the Angels.

Edited December 4, 2014 by jokin

[Otto von Ballpark]

5) If the Twins pull a really smart move and make a play for someone like the ever popular Peter Bourjos from St. Louis to come in and play CF on an everyday basis, does your opinion of Hunter and the Twins OF change? It does for me.

I think I just read a TR quote that he's going to focus on pitching now.  And so far he's been pretty forthright in these matters.

[jokin]

I think I just read a TR quote that he's going to focus on pitching now.  And so far he's been pretty forthright in these matters.

 

Actually, this door is not quite closed all of the way.  This afternoon he told Berardino this:

 

 

 

Mike Berardino @MikeBerardino  ·  3h 3 hours agoAsked Ryan if #MNTwins Opening Day CF was already in-house:                                                                                                                                                                                              "I wouldn’t be able to answer that until I see exactly what’s out there."

[jokin]

I think given Ryan's past comments on him taking responsibility for the teams he's given Gardy, it seems like it might be worthwhile to consider what Molitor is looking for in further position player upgrades.  Ryan might be inclined to accede to Molly's wishes and still be "looking to see what's out there" at the Winter Meetings as well as what's on the waiver wire/Rule 5.

[Sam Morley]

If the Twins had signed an outfielder exactly like Torii Hunter but not Torii Hunter, I would be pissed. 

 

Lots of arguments against the signing are being presented, and it seems like most of them are probably valid. Young players losing time to an old player in the midst of a rebuild is the worst, in my mind. But even if his defense is as bad as the metrics insist, I'm not about to feel sorry for our pitching staff. It seems to me, that group has way more to worry about before getting cranky about the d. 

 

Anyway, analytically and strategically, I have to admit that I agree that this signing may not be very good. Fortunately, I'm not really an analyst nor a strategist; I'm just a fan, and as a fan this signing makes me happy. I will definitely be at Target Field more than I would have otherwise this summer just to see Torii in a Twins uniform a few more times.

 

I think the Twins' fans on this site are the best out there, and it's definitely a bummer to read them tearing one of the all time Twins greats apart. In the early nineties it felt like the likes of Torii Hunter, Jaques Jones, Corey Koskie, and Christian Guzman single handedly saved the team from contraction. The team should have re-signed him the first time, paying him what he'd earned destroying his body on the metrodome concrete. They should have signed him when his contract with the Angels was up. Of course, now that it doesn't make any sense to sign him, they do. 

 

Oh well. I think all the 'the sky is falling' sentiment is silly. It might not be ideal, but it's definitely not a big deal. The Twins are not going to compete. They're not going to sign anybody that will make them compete. They're going to wait until the prospects emerge and hope they turn out. Torii Hunter is a Twins legend. He's not Kubel or Guerrier or Bartlett. He's a Twins legend. It's good to have him back.

[h2oface]

I'm sorry, when exactly was Sandy Koufax Kevin Correia and when did that magic happen?

 

We systematically stocked our team with guys who were meant to rely on their defense and only very recently changed that philosophy. Fielding guys fully known to rely on defense and then not giving them a defense is really, really bad strategy.

I didn't mean to imply a Koufax to Correia comparison. I am sorry if that is how you took it. I did mention Meyer,  Berrios, and Stewart.  I believe Gibson is still formulating, too.  I do believe magic can happen, and pitchers can get better, especially when they are just coming on.  I didn't mention Nolasco or Pelfrey either.  I think things are changing.  I agree that Ryan has made some horrible choices with misguided hopes and strategy.  If the bats miss the ball more, a lot of good things can happen.  Perhaps even.... some magic.

Edited December 4, 2014 by h2oface

[nicksaviking]

It will give the Twins very little leverage to get anything in return.

 

Yeah, which is on par with every other Twins mid-season trade lately.

[nicksaviking]

So we want a leopard to start having stripes?  These guys are what they are, it's not like they'll magically become Randy Johnson when they stop making excuses.

 

The front office brought a bunch of high contact, fly ball pitchers in and are now fielding a defense that looks like they all put their foreheads on bats and spun around for 10 minutes before taking the field.  

 

I agree, the pitchers themselves likely are not able to change.  That doesn't change the fact that the finding plus outfielders (and infielders) because the pitchers put too many balls in play isn't fixing the problem, it's just putting a band aid on it.  If the team wants to make the pitchers look better, sure, you can get better fielders, but the team isn't going to contend until the actual pitching problem is fixed.  We're basically just arguing if Torii Hunter is an adaquate turniquet.  To win, they need to do more than simply try to stop the bleeding.

[jay]

Terry Ryan said the Hunter is the RF. Multiple reporters, including the MLB.com guy that writes all of the content on the Twins own website (Rhett Bollinger)... have reported this and of Arcia's destination.  I have a hard time thinking that just-the-facts Bollinger just made this quote up out of whole cloth:

 

I think you missed my point.  It's December.  A lot can happen between now and March.

 

I'm not convinced it's even nearly as big of a deal as some folks are making it out to be anyway.

Edited December 4, 2014 by jay

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think you missed my point.  It's December.  A lot can happen between now and March.

When they announce that Hunter is taking over RF, that significantly reduces the likely possibilities that can happen between now and March.  It's basically either Arcia to LF, AAA, or traded.

[Kwak]

My take on the comment was perhaps the pitchers should find the catcher's glove more often instead of making the outfielders get all of their outs for them.

Except that if their pitch-count is "under control" said pitcher will be in the bullpen (much lower salary) or out of a job entirely.  "PtoC" may have been removed from the Twins' lexicon--but it is still practiced.

[Mike Sixel]

Even strike out pitchers benefit from defense. I don't really get how saying the defense is bad somehow "excuses" pitchers. The defense is bad.

[kab21]

I'm fairly certain that there is no OF acquisition could make this board happy.  Yes, it would be great if the Twins could go out find a good defensive OF'er that wasn't inept with the bat.  And additionally not give up any good prospects or commit to more than 1 year to block any prospects.  Unfortunately that player doesn't exist and the alternative is just hoping that Jordan Schafer doesn't make us cry until Rosario comes up.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Actually, this door is not quite closed all of the way.  This afternoon he told Berardino this:\

Quote

 

 

Mike Berardino @MikeBerardino  ·  3h 3 hours agoAsked Ryan if #MNTwins Opening Day CF was already in-house:                                                                                                                                                                                              "I wouldn’t be able to answer that until I see exactly what’s out there."

 

So... Lew Ford?  

[nicksaviking]

Even strike out pitchers benefit from defense. I don't really get how saying the defense is bad somehow "excuses" pitchers. The defense is bad.

 

I don't think I've heard the Twins or Twins pitchers blame the defense, which is noble.  Still, if good defenders make the pitchers look better, or good pitchers make defenders look better are the options, I think you win more with the later.  Good on both ends is ideal, but I think you fix the pitching first, as it seems more important.

[jay]

It's basically either Arcia to LF, AAA, or traded.

 

Or DH.  Or they change their mind.  Or Hunter DHs some and Arcia plays both RF and LF. 

 

There's scenarios where Hunter doesn't stay in RF either.  Or a 39 year old gets injured early in the year.  Or fails to perform.

 

The OF defense isn't going to be great either way.  Of all the things to possibly not like about signing Hunter, I don't understand making a big fuss about which corner Arcia plays in.  Ideally, he probably wouldn't play in either.

[nicksaviking]

I'm fairly certain that there is no OF acquisition could make this board happy.  Yes, it would be great if the Twins could go out find a good defensive OF'er that wasn't inept with the bat.  And additionally not give up any good prospects or commit to more than 1 year to block any prospects.  Unfortunately that player doesn't exist and the alternative is just hoping that Jordan Schafer doesn't make us cry until Rosario comes up.

 

Probably not, but I think that really has more to do with the quality of the available OF than it does with the split among us TD posters.  Perhaps Alex Rios would have been the compromise that would have brought us together, I haven't heard too much complaining about him even though everyone would be counting on bounce back offensive and defensive production from him.

[jokin]

Probably not, but I think that really has more to do with the quality of the available OF than it does with the split among us TD posters.  Perhaps Alex Rios would have been the compromise that would have brought us together, I haven't heard too much complaining about him even though everyone would be counting on bounce back offensive and defensive production from him.

 

Yep, you're definitely on to something here- there weren't a lot of options.  I've written about it before, but since the Twins were insistent on going this route, a more defensible case can be made for the soon-to-be 34 year old Rios (and his estimated one-year price of $8.5M would have saved them some money, besides).