Article: Who Says No? Brian Dozier Edition

[Linus]

It's quite simple...they don't have to sign him to retain control through his early 30's, so why do it?

This plus 100. They have him for the years they want with no obligation. Why give that away?

[jokin]

This plus 100. They have him for the years they want with no obligation. Why give that away?

 

1) To possibly save upwards of ~$25M in payroll over six years to utilize more productively elsewhere.

2) To smooth out payroll growth more predictably for future anticipated needs (through frontloading, backloading or steadyloading).

3) To make the possible acquisition of Dozier by another team more attractive and/or affordable than said team going out on the ever-increasing costs in the FA market- thus yielding a higher level return in talent to the Twins.

 

In the case of Dozier, it's a close call, to be sure, but very bright minds are making just these kinds of deals, even for the likes of Gyorko, let alone Seager.  They must know something about the financial trends in baseball revenues that makes these deals justifiable. For the Twins not to at least consider a move like this, would mean that they forsee that a Blackburn-esque outcome for Dozier is still a possibility- or that they're convinced that, in fairly short order, Polanco and Santana are going to take both of the MI jobs away from any and all comers, including Dozier. If that's the case, then this entire thread is moot.

[Linus]

1) To possibly save upwards of ~$25M in payroll over six years to utilize more productively elsewhere.

2) To smooth out payroll growth more predictably for future anticipated needs (through frontloading, backloading or steadyloading).

3) To make the possible acquisition of Dozier by another team more attractive and/or affordable than said team going out on the ever-increasing costs in the FA market- thus yielding a higher level return in talent to the Twins.

 

In the case of Dozier, it's a close call, to be sure, but very bright minds are making just these kinds of deals, even for the likes of Gyorko, let alone Seager. They must know something about the financial trends in baseball revenues that makes these deals justifiable. For the Twins not to at least consider a move like this, would mean that they forsee that a Blackburn-esque outcome for Dozier is still a possibility- or that they're convinced that, in fairly short order, Polanco and Santana are going to take both of the MI jobs away from any and all comers, including Dozier. If that's the case, then this entire thread is moot.

That is my point. They don't need or want him for 6 more years, physically or financially.

[Sanjay Wolowitz]

The thing about Dozier is that he's had half a great season, one and a half ok/good seasons, and half a season where he didn't do anything that made him remotely resemble a passable major leaguer on a halfway decent team.  And he's already 27.  In other words, he looks like your fairly high floor, fairly low ceiling type of player that TR has been good at finding in recent years.

 

If it was up to me, I'd look for good seasons from Santana and Polanco.  If you get the results you're looking for from them, then try to move Dozier at the deadline.  With Dozier being at a relatively advanced age during his breakout half-season, and having posted streaky results on either side of that half-season, it's really difficult for me to get too jazzed about his place in future Twins teams.

 

It'd be nice to see if TR can turn Dozier into another Liriano/Boof/Nathan kind of deal in the relatively near future IMO.

[jay]

The thing about Dozier is that he's had half a great season, one and a half ok/good seasons, and half a season where he didn't do anything that made him remotely resemble a passable major leaguer on a halfway decent team. And he's already 27.

2009 - Drafted and rookie ball

2010 - Low-A and High-A

2011 - High-A, AA and AFL

2012 - MLB and AAA

2013 - MLB and second half breakout

 

Dozier was drafted as an 8th rounder, but forced a fast track. He broke out in his second MLB year after making the jump from AA for his rookie year. I don't understand faulting him for any of that. He's not some journeyman minor-leaguer who finally broke out.

 

If Dozier is too old for an extension, that's practically saying don't ever extend a college draftee. I think Dozier is being consistently undervalued in this thread.

[jorgenswest]

Gyorko was a college draftee. Seager was a college draftee. Dozier may have been on a fast track, but he also had the full track. Seager and Gyorko played A Ball the summer they were drafted. On the short track, both had their first full season in the majors at 24. Dozier was 26. The Twins get two more years of control through the aging curve.

[Linus]

And that makes all the difference in the world in this situation.  Just because people are not advocating for an extension doesn't mean we don't value him as a ballplayer.  At this point, he is probably my favorite Twin but the circumstances are such that the Twins just don't have to do it.

[tobi0040]

. I think Dozier is being consistently undervalued in this thread.

 

Agreed.  For at least the next six to eight years, he should have pop.  For at least the next four or five years he should provide plus defense and speed on the bases.  Even if his average never comes around to .270-.280 or so that is a plus 2B.

[USAFChief]

Agreed.  For at least the next six to eight years, he should have pop.  For at least the next four or five years he should provide plus defense and speed on the bases.  Even if his average never comes around to .270-.280 or so that is a plus 2B.

I'm not sure he's being underrated as much as people are not sure why you guarantee money to someone when you can get the bulk of that above average production without the contract.

[TheLeviathan]

1) To possibly save upwards of ~$25M in payroll over six years to utilize more productively elsewhere.

2) To smooth out payroll growth more predictably for future anticipated needs (through frontloading, backloading or steadyloading).

3) To make the possible acquisition of Dozier by another team more attractive and/or affordable than said team going out on the ever-increasing costs in the FA market- thus yielding a higher level return in talent to the Twins.

 

In the case of Dozier, it's a close call, to be sure, but very bright minds are making just these kinds of deals, even for the likes of Gyorko, let alone Seager.  They must know something about the financial trends in baseball revenues that makes these deals justifiable. For the Twins not to at least consider a move like this, would mean that they forsee that a Blackburn-esque outcome for Dozier is still a possibility- or that they're convinced that, in fairly short order, Polanco and Santana are going to take both of the MI jobs away from any and all comers, including Dozier. If that's the case, then this entire thread is moot.

 

1) That is the most optimal situation.  The least optimal, by contrast, is you just lost 50M in available salary over 6 years.  

2) Arbitration growth is relatively steady already

3) This also assumes Dozier is a stud into his 30s.

 

Chief's right, handing guaranteed contracts around when you don't have to is precisely what got us Blackburn's contract.  Is Dozier likely a better player?  Sure.  That doesn't make the thinking any less problematic.

 

Let him earn what he earns in arbitration and worry about the FA years when you have to.  You're putting the cart a mile before the horse to sign him now.

[Boom Boom]

I keep hearing about Dozier's defense... if you believe in defensive metrics at all, his defense is actually below average.

[Halsey Hall]

This thread is giving me a headache.  Congrats, Seth, you got things stirred up. 

[jay]

I keep hearing about Dozier's defense... if you believe in defensive metrics at all, his defense is actually below average.

I assume you're citing UZR here, which has him at -0.7 and -4.4 the last two years. People who "believe in defensive metrics at all" also know UZR requires 3 years of data to start becoming reliable and those numbers above can hardly be used to say he's "below average".

 

Over those same 2 years, DRS has him at +9 and 0.

 

Sorry, but that statement is hardly accurate.

[ashbury]

This thread is giving me a headache.  Congrats, Seth, you got things stirred up. 

It's a nice Hot Stove kind of thread.  And I think my view was altered a bit after reading the back-and-forth.

[jay]

What would the A's do with Dozier and Plouffe?

The real question is... What would the Cardinals do?

 

They gave a 28 year old Matt Carpenter a six-year extension after 2 seasons. They've also given multi-year extensions to guys with 2 to 3 years of service time in recent years to at least Yadi, Wainwright, J Garcia and Craig. These deals all contain club options at the end for what would have been free agent years.

 

Jon Jay, Bourjos and Decalso are going year-to-year through arb without a locked in extension.

 

They'll have similar decisions to make shortly for Wacha, Adams, Wong, Rosenthal, Lynn, etc.

 

Do Dozier and Plouffe fit closer to the first group that has gotten extensions or the second group that hasn't?

[jorgenswest]

The real question is... What would the Cardinals do?

They gave a 28 year old Matt Carpenter a six-year extension after 2 seasons. They've also given multi-year extensions to guys with 2 to 3 years of service time in recent years to at least Yadi, Wainwright, J Garcia and Craig. These deals all contain club options at the end for what would have been free agent years.

Jon Jay, Bourjos and Decalso are going year-to-year through arb without a locked in extension.

They'll have similar decisions to make shortly for Wacha, Adams, Wong, Rosenthal, Lynn, etc.

Do Dozier and Plouffe fit closer to the first group that has gotten extensions or the second group that hasn't?

In my argument I almost said that if either put up san OPS+ like Carpenter or Donaldson it would be a different question. They both also started career at 26 but put up an OPS+ in the 140s in their second year. There is a whole bunch of room for decline from that level.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Descalso is a non-tender candidate  - I think Dozier is closer to the first group than the 2nd. Plouffe I think is closer to the 2nd than the first. Don't know why I feel that way, it's unfairly rooted in a gut feeling. Both are better in my opinion than the 2nd group.

 

I'd rank Dozier above Allen Craig, for sure.

 

I'd rank Plouffe above everyone in group 2, for sure. Outside of that, until they actually play the games, it's anyone's guess how they will play next year and the following years...