Article: Who Says No? Brian Dozier Edition

[Seth Stohs]

Big money is being spent around baseball. Players are signing long-term deals before free agency. There are are a couple of Twins players who would/could be looking to gain some financial security. In this series, I’ll review a Twins player, his numbers, his contract status and his earnings potential. I’ll put out a contract that I would consider fair and ask Twins Daily’s readers, “Who Says No?” We’ll start with Brian Dozier.Clearly there is some money to spend in baseball right now. National TV revenues are crazy, so the players should cash in. That said, teams still need to make sound business decisions.

 

The Kyle Seager 7-year, $100 million contract got me thinking. He is arbitration eligible for the first time this year after making $540,000 in his final year of serfdom. So the Mariners are buying out the 2014 All-Star for three years of arbitration, plus four years of free agency. There is money to be spent, so should the Twins spend it?

 

Brian Dozier had a very good 2014 season, his age-27 season. He hit .242/.345/.416 (.742) with 33 doubles, a triple, 23 home runs, 71 RBI and 112 runs scored. He also stole 21 bases. He also played very good defense at second base. If he is able to continue posting those types of numbers, he is going to start making a lot of money in 2016 when he is playing under his first year of arbitration.

 

Understandably, he would want to work under some sort of guarantee, so a long-term contract might make a lot of sense for him. The Twins would certainly like to lock up a guy who they consider a quality player and a leader in the clubhouse. Of course, such a contract would have to make sense for both sides.

 

So, if Dozier were to put up just the same numbers for the next four or five years, what would he make? Here are some estimates:

• 2015 (age 28): Not yet arbitration-eligible, Dozier will make between $550,000 and $600,000.
• 2016 (age 29): 1^st year arbitration-eligible, Dozier would likely jump up to about $5 million.
• 2017 (age 30): 2^nd year arbitration-eligible, Dozier would likely jump to about $8-10 million.
• 2018 (age 31): 3^rd year arbitration-eligible, Dozier would likely jump to $10-12 million.
• 2019 (age 32): He would be a free agent.

Those estimates are again assuming that he just puts up similar numbers to what he did in 2014. Of course, if he continues to improve, those numbers could go up a little. The other side that is if he gets hurt or declines, he could be a non-tender candidate in a couple of years. That’s what makes these long-term contracts risky for both sides.

 

I included the season and age just because those are likely part of the discussion and part of the equation and thought process for such decisions as well. Other factors that come into play include the character of the player, some intangibles, and how will that player handle the security? That’s a big one. Will he sit back and quit working after signing the guaranteed contract, or will he use the security to really push himself to greatness? There’s no way to know, but those thoughts have to run through the collective mind of a front office.

 

WHO WOULD SAY NO?

 

So, what I’ve done is put together a contract offer for the Twins front office and for Brian Dozier and his agent to consider (hypothetically). My question today for the Twins Daily audience is, Who Says No?

• 2015: $1 million.
• 2016: $5 million
• 2017: $7 million
• 2018: $9 million
• 2019: $11 million
• 2020: $12 million
• 6 year, $45 million contract through his age 33 season.

So, the question is there for discussion… Who says No? Or do they both say Yes?

 

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[Winston Smith]

I don't see any reason to do anything at this time. Wait at least another year.

[minnesota transplant]

I probably am in this camp too.  Lets wait a year.  There really is no hurry.

[iTwins]

I'll 'third' the "wait another year" notion. Let him earn his $500,000-$600,000 in 2015 and then, if he produces at a similar level in 2015, talk about buying out his arbitration years from 2016 on. No reason to rush things just yet, Dozier isn't going anywhere for a while.

[Dantes929]

I think Dozier would jump at it though I don't know what the new revenue really does.  Is it 30% more across the board?  More, less?    I don't think the Twins should offer it.   That same contract is likely there next year as well so why commit to it now?   I like Dozier and probably want him around for another couple years but in 4 years I see more a mix of Santana, Polanco  or Gordon covering short and 2nd.   18 homers the 1st half, 5 the second half which I think is closer to what he will give us.   If he raises his average and OBP by 40 points next year I would maybe offer the terms you suggest or even higher.    I just wouldn't do it now..

[Mike Sixel]

I'd sign him to that deal right now. The end of that deal will look cheap, imo, given how fast salaries are rising right now. I think I'd also take that deal if I was him, because it buys out some risk on his end, however, I could see him asking for about $2-3MM per year more, to average closer to $10MM per year.

[Greg Logan]

I think most people don't realize how long we have Dozier under team control, and I think that's where the extension talk comes from. The example here would cost at least $15M more to essentially book Dozier's age-32 season. I'm not sure its worth it if you look at it that way. 

 

I'm in the camp with the folks commenting above. Give it another year. If he maintains the pop he showed, especially in the 1st half, and keeps getting on base at the same rate, book him at least through age 32 as suggested in the Seth's article, probably a year or two more

[Mike Sixel]

That same offer isn't going to work next year, if he's this good next year. The money will have already gone up for everyone, and he'll now have two years of 2-4 WAR per season under his belt. You'd have to get the yearly average closer to 12-15MM per year if you wait a year, I'd guess.....

[JustinCB]

If he keeps it up, you could be looking at double that to lock him up to something similar in a year, but I agree - I don't care about the Twins' money and I think they'll keep him one way or another - if he can prove himself again next year.

[Brandon]

for 6 years you are looking at more money then that.  try:

 

2015:  1 Million

2016:  6 Million

2017:  10 Million

2018:   14 Million

2019:   17 Million

2020:   17 Million

 

Those numbers are more in line with the current market and this totals 65 million.  Seager gets 100 Million for 7 seasons so we add another 17 million and turn the 1 million into 17 million because Seager is one season closer to free agency = 98 million.  If you want to go for a home town discount you could see about shaving 3-5 million from this scenario.  But I don't see Dozier giving up too much.  If Dozier was willing to sign a 6 year extension for under 60,000,000 then we should jump on it. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would sign him. That said, I think the Twins would say no to that deal. Dozier will sign closer to 6/35 then he will 6/45. That deal you have there is probably the top of end of what Dozier will make right now if you go year to year, though I think your initial arb number is a bit high (expecting closer to 2-3M). I don't see the Twins doing this where they absorb the bulk of the risk.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think it's very team friendly - it reminds me a little of the contract extension that Denard Span signed with the Twins.

 

The added benefit of a team friendly contract is that it is also a more appealing trade chip.

 

The Twins would be fortunate if Dozier signed it, because if he's good for the length of it, he'd make more in Arb, and more in that 1st FA year. I don't think the Twins would want to have him under contract for much longer than this, though...

 

I think Dozier might politely decline that offer this year, though.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Brian is under Twins control for 4 more years. No need to give him long-term contract now. He will be 30+ when he is eligible for free agency and probably not part of the future. Maybe give him a million dollars next year, maybe not.

[Steven Buhr]

I'm probably in the "wait a year" camp, too, but I wouldn't strongly object to an effort to lock him up now.

 

However, if I'm structuring the deal from the club perspective, I might front-load the contract more. The money is available this year and next to "overpay" a bit, in return for dropping the rate for the final 2-3 years of the deal. That would potentially make Dozier a more valuable asset in event you're looking to move him in order to make room for Polanco, Gordon, et al., by 2017-18.

[Mike Sixel]

Fascinating extreme views!

[Mike Sixel]

Uh, players play into their 30s, and are "part of the future" then....

[James Richter]

If the cupboard was as bare in the minors as it has been in the recent past, I'd probably be eager to lock him up. But with Polanco already at AA, I feel like they've got the luxury of letting this play out next year. Let's see if he's really a .760 OPS or a .715 OPS player before deciding what he's worth long-term.

[jorgenswest]

He is projected for a 2.9 WAR (steamer) next year which is between his last two seasons.

 

If he were to continue to be a 3 WAR player through his arbitration seasons, what would he earn in arbitration? I am not sure, but I think the answer to yes or no can be found by studying that progression. The Twins say no unless they get a significant savings in the above deal compared to arbitration.

 

If I am the Twins, I do say no to buying that first year of free agency at age 33. Instead, they still have the option of tendering. The 5/33 contract is much easier to trade. It is going to be difficult to trade a contract where half of its value is in the age 32-33 seasons.

Edited November 26, 2014 by jorgenswest

[jokin]

I'd sign him to that deal right now. The end of that deal will look cheap, imo, given how fast salaries are rising right now. I think I'd also take that deal if I was him, because it buys out some risk on his end, however, I could see him asking for about $2-3MM per year more, to average closer to $10MM per year.

 

I would hope the Twins are thinking about this contract two/three moves ahead... a team-favorable contract as in the case of Denard Span, will make Dozier a desirable piece to more teams when it comes time to move him. 

 

Example, the WAR numbers say Neil Walker is clearly an inferior player and is set to earn $8.6M in his second year of arbitration.  Based on the rate that salaries are climbing, Seth's estimate of 8-10M in Dozier's second year as arb eligible is likely going to end up being too low.  $7M for Dozier in 2017 could be looking pretty cheap to prospective suitors who will be looking at potential sticker shock on Howie Kendrick, Jose Altuve, Daniel Murphy, et al.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'd sign him, but it might be too team friendly to entice Dozier to agree. Yes it's a risk, but much less of one than the Crapsshoot that is the minor leagues or trying to find a replacement via free agency. Let's face it, Polanco might be ML ready in three years if the stars align. If he does work out, you have equity to trade. Win-win

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Assuming he doesn't suffer a major injury, Dozier would definitely make more on a FA contract than any extension offered this offseason. The value of the contract in a trade is worth considering.

[Seth Stohs]

This discussion is great! Thank you! And, the two "sides" of the discussion are likely both right and expressing that concerns that each side would have. "Security" and "Cost Certainty" are the positives for both sides. "Maximize value" and "Overpay" are on the other side of the equation.

 

I do have to wonder, when we heard rumors last spring training about a contract extension with Dozier, what those terms might have looked like. I'm guessing lower than what my proposal above is. If they wait another year and he has another similar year, he could be looking more at a Seager deal. 

 

The risk goes both ways, and I feel pretty good about where I put the numbers, but I'm loving this conversation.

[WildGuy16]

Dozier may have peaked in 2014. I wouldn't sign him long term, certainly not this year. I wouldn't mind seeing him dangled in a trade offer, selling at what could be his high market value. I was very troubled by his second half power decrease. I fear the Twins may have already seen his best

[Trov]

It is very close for me.  I love his defense, but unless he grows his offense he will become a liability.  Yes, he did well overall, however, look at the second half of the season when pitchers learned to never throw a fastball inside on him.  I find it funny that people get all on the lefties for having to hit the other way, but guys like Dozier who are right handed there is no big push them to hit the other way.  Dozier pulls the ball as much as anyone on the team and he loves the high inside fastball.  I am in the camp wait another year see if he develops and then just do a 5 year for little bit more money if need be.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm probably in the "wait a year" camp, too, but I wouldn't strongly object to an effort to lock him up now.

 

However, if I'm structuring the deal from the club perspective, I might front-load the contract more. The money is available this year and next to "overpay" a bit, in return for dropping the rate for the final 2-3 years of the deal. That would potentially make Dozier a more valuable asset in event you're looking to move him in order to make room for Polanco, Gordon, et al., by 2017-18.

 

I agree with the front loading part for sure......if you could smooth out the numbers, he'll be a bargain at the end of the deal, even is he's league average.

[Mike Sixel]

It is very close for me.  I love his defense, but unless he grows his offense he will become a liability.  Yes, he did well overall, however, look at the second half of the season when pitchers learned to never throw a fastball inside on him.  I find it funny that people get all on the lefties for having to hit the other way, but guys like Dozier who are right handed there is no big push them to hit the other way.  Dozier pulls the ball as much as anyone on the team and he loves the high inside fastball.  I am in the camp wait another year see if he develops and then just do a 5 year for little bit more money if need be.

 

It won't be "little more" money then....he'll have multiple years of being in the top half of the league 2B......the money goes up every year. don't forget, you are no longer buying out that first year, so the AAV goes way up.

[Steven Buhr]

I wonder... if the Twins REALLY love Polanco, for example, and see him as potentially ready to be a MLB regular 2B as early as 2016 or 2017 at the latest, wouldn't you just go year by year with Dozier? There's still value in trade market for a guy in his arb years and, worst case, you make him a qualifying offer the first time he's FA eligible. Not a terrible outcome if Polanco or someone else really is as good, or better, within a couple years.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

It worked out really well for the Twins on the Span deal, not so much with Nick Blackburn - I think those might be the two extremes. To me it boils down to whether Dozier can be reasonably expected to stay healthy and productive for the next 2-3 years. The original post proposal would be totally worth it at that point. 

 

Had Span not gotten that concussion, I think he might have netted the Twins even more in trade than they got from the Nationals.

[ericchri]

With the rate at which salaries are skyrocketing I'd sign that deal as the Twins FO in a heartbeat.  I'm not sure if Dozier would, though. 

 

I agree with someone earlier though, I'd probably try and shift a little of the money forwards on the contract if possible.  Wouldn't have to be a lot necessarily, but take a million each off the last couple years and divide it up among the first four, but it makes him a little more valuable later if we decide to move him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Had Span not gotten that concussion, I think he might have netted the Twins even more in trade than they got from the Nationals.

Probably only if the Twins had been prepared to deal him in 2011 -- don't think that is clear at all.