Article: Time to Cash In for Jay Bruce

[nicksaviking]

This post is wrongly attributed to nicksaviking. He did not write this post so stop throwing rocks at him, everybody.

 

A report has surfaced over the past week indicating that the Cincinnati Reds are exploring trading outfielder Jay Bruce if the right deal were to surface. With the Hot Stove season inching closer with each passing day, it should come as no surprise that trade rumors are floating at increasingly a rapid rate. Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins have yet to be linked to any big name free agents or potential trade candidates. This should not come as a surprise to most Twins fans as Terry Ryan and the front office have given little indication that they are willing to go out and add any pieces to improve this team, beyond a posssible Black Friday special on the free agent heap toward the end of winter.The Reds are in a precarious position after a disappointing 2014 season that saw them finish 76-86, their worst season since 2008. Injuries could be pointed to as a reason for their ineffectiveness and failure to live up to expectations, but that is an excuse used for many teams across baseball each and every season. Whatever the reason, if the Reds are hoping to turn the tide and return to contention for the 2015 season, they will need players like Bruce to lead the turnaround.

The fact that he is potentially being shopped makes little sense on the surface. In his career, Bruce has hit .251 with a .790 OPS, 182 home runs and 551 RBI. His best season was 2013 when he hit .262 with 30 HR and 109 RBI. Acquiring Bruce will not be easy and it will not come cheaply. However, looking more deeply at the situation in Cincinnati, one might be able to understand the spot the Reds are potentially facing and be able to comprehend the rationale of trading one of their most dynamic offensive weapons who is entering the prime of his career.

According to Sports Illustrated, the Reds are facing an unsettled situation after next season in regard to bringing back the majority of their 2014 starting rotation. Last season, the Reds signed Homer Bailey to a long-term contract. Outside of Bailey, the other four pitchers in the starting rotation—Johnny Cueto, Alfredo Simon, Mat Latos and Mike Leake—aren't signed past next season, nor is closer Aroldis Chapman. For a team hoping to remain in contention within a division that boasts the St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers, and the rapidly improving Chicago Cubs, having a solidified starting rotation and quality depth at the position is something of a necessity.

The Reds boasted one of the best starting staffs in all of baseball last season and though their 3.60 team ERA ranked in the middle of the NL, Reds pitchers held opposing batters to a league-best .239 average. Those numbers were largely credited to the starting rotation, whose collective 3.37 ERA ranked third in the NL. Needless to say, the reason the Reds were competitive had a lot to do with their quality starting pitching. If they wish to remain competitive, it will be via starting pitching and an offense centered around Joey Votto.

The window for playoff contention may be closing if the team fails to keep this staff intact, so trading a player like Bruce may be a way to free up payroll and also improve the team in other areas of weakness. This is where the Twins come in.

No, I have not started putting down the eggnog quite yet and yes, I am of stable mind when I stand behind this thought: The Twins should, can, and need to cash in on some of their young talent in order to acquire an established player this offseason. If there is one thing we know, it is that the Twins’ biggest area of weakness is their starting pitching and, to some extent, portions of their bullpen.

So why would the Twins want to invest in an area that is in less dire straits than their starting pitching? Because they have enough assets to do so and a move like this would significantly improve a lineup, and an outfield, that drastically needs it. Not to mention, a blockbuster trade like this would create a necessary buzz around the team that would hopefully keep dangling fans interested and buying tickets. In addition, the Twins have a general manager who is willing to take a risk when it comes to adding talent. The main questions that Ryan and his staff must ask themselves, and what many fans reading this article are probably wondering is: What would it take to bring in Bruce and is he worth the price?

Reports out of Cincinnati indicate that the team is looking to add a left fielder and pitching depth to their rotation and bullpen. If they were to trade Bruce, they’d also have a vacancy in right field as, so that must also be factored into any potential equation. If I were in Ryan’s seat, I would begin the discussion by offering a package of Phil Hughes, Aaron Hicks, and someone from the duo of Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone. I know many fans may scoff at trading Hughes after his brilliant 2014 campaign, but his track record does not offer a lot of stability and if the Twins are serious about acquiring a talent like Bruce, it will likely cost them one of their best arms.

In Hughes’ case, why not sell high on a pitcher with an unpredictable future? He seems like exactly the type of pitcher the Reds would be looking to add to their already solid rotation and he would come with two years remaining on his deal and a payroll-friendly contract. Hicks has enough potential that the Reds may view him as a reclamation project and could plug him into an outfield spot with many years of control left at a cheap price. The inclusion of Nolasco would be a bit more difficult due to his poor 2014 season and the approximately $36 million left on his deal. But, like Hicks, the Reds could view Nolasco as a reclamation project with a solid track record in the National League who could be had at a reasonable price.

Another potential deal I believe the Reds might strongly consider would revolve around Brian Dozier. I’d be willing to part with Dozier, Hughes, and Hicks straight up for Bruce because he has the talent to transform a lineup and is signed through 2016 with a team option for 2017 to a payroll-friendly deal. There is no guarantee that Dozier will continue to perform at the level he had this past season and his value may be at its height. Also, he is due a hefty pay raise in the coming years and with suitable replacements potentially coming up through the minors (Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario), the Twins could use this as a perfect opportunity to flip Dozier for maximum value. A package of Dozier, Hughes, and Hicks could even fetch a lower level minor leaguer or two in the deal, but Bruce would be the centerpiece for any such deal. In addition, the Reds have been rumored to be shopping Brandon Phillips over the past few seasons and could be looking for his long-term replacement in the near future, which would make Dozier the ideal fit in this deal.

So why do I believe this would be a great deal for the Twins and their future? For one, in either deal that I have presented, the Twins would not be sacrificing any of their prized prospects such as Alex Meyer, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, J.O Berrios, Kennys Vargas, etc. Whether or not the Reds would be willing to trade Bruce without the inclusion of at least one of those prospects remains to be seen, but there is no guarantee that any of these players will ever live up to the hype that has been bestowed upon them throughout their minor league careers. With that in mind, why not trade for a proven commodity who is entering the prime of his career? If these stud prospects are kept, Bruce would be a cornerstone in place when the majority of these players make it to the majors. This may be one of the only times that the Twins have enough assets to get a player of his caliber without sacrificing numerous talented prospects.

With Bruce in the fold, the Twins could trot out a lineup that looks like this as early as next season:
1. Danny Santana SS
2. Joe Mauer 1B
3. Kennys Vargas DH
4. Jay Bruce RF
5. Miguel Sano 3B
6. Oswaldo Arcia LF
7. Trevor Plouffe/Eduardo Escobar/Nunez 2B
8. Kurt Suzuki C
9. Eddie Rosario/Jordan Shafer CF

And still have a pitching rotation of (in no particular order):
1. Kyle Gibson
2. Trevor May
3. Alex Meyer
4. Nolasco/Millone/Pelfrey
5. Free Agent starter (Justin Masterson, Brett Anderson, etc.)

Under this scenario, the Twins still will be waiting on Buxton, Berrios, etc. to be making their way to the majors. Much like the Twins of the early 2000s, the time has come where if the Twins are unwilling to spend money via free agency to bring in top-flight pitchers and if they are confident in the prospects that they have coming up, they should bring up the young pitchers (with a few veterans thrown in) and grow with them as they learn to pitch at the big league level. The Twins will then have the best evaluation information as to what they truly have with these kids and it will allow the front office to take the next step into turning this franchise around as the youngsters gain experience and learn from their mistakes.

Maybe the prospects crash and burn when they get to the majors and the team is back to losing 100 games again every season. At this point, who really knows for sure? At the same time, if the Twins were to begin losing 100 plus games every year because of the youth movement, they’d at least be doing it with players who are young and hopefully improving instead of cheap veterans who are on the last legs of their career.

Trading for Bruce would not solve the Twins problems overnight. If anything, it would likely make the situation worse in the short-term. However, if the Twins are ever again to become a serious contender in this league it will rest on the arms of their young starting pitching that is developing in the minors and the bats of a productive lineup that can provide the starters with run support. Bruce improves the potential of any future Twins lineup immensely upon arrival and gives new coach Paul Molitor a masher who can anchor the lineup while the youngsters develop and provide stability at a position of great current concern. All that is needed now is for management to be willing to step outside their comfort zone and take a risk by making a blockbuster deal. Until then, we sit and wait as the Hot Stove adds one more coal to the fire.

Click here to view the article

[bwille]

If I made it sound like the Twins were taking back Phillips as part of the deal, that was not my intention.  I meant to say that the Reds would then look to trade Phillips for other help if they could acquire Dozier in a deal for Bruce.  I agree that taking on Nolasco and Millone would not make much sense, but I took it from a sense that they would be receiving a player under control for a few years at a rate that they may need to pay to keep one of their current starters long-term.  

 

I also think Dozier's value is over-hyped here in Minnesota and if the Twins could find someone to overvalue him, such as the Reds, they could receive a nice compensation for him such as a player like Bruce.  

 

I agree that going after a player like Bruce is a long-shot, especially with our front office.  I am merely floating the idea that trading players like Dozier while their value is high may be a good move for an organization that may be looking to make a splash this off-season to save plummeting ticket sales and to energize a new coaching staff.  I did state at the end of the article that any deal would likely hurt the Twins in the short-term, but I think long-term it could reap huge benefits as it would improve the long-term potential of the team.  Bruce would be a fine upgrade, but I agree that it'd be a tough sell to many people.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm guessing they would be asking more for Meyer or Berrios, to which I say no thanks. If they are open to acquiring some young, cheap, nearly ML ready arms like Darnel or Gilmartin, sign me up.

[bwille]

A report has surfaced over the past week indicating that the Cincinnati Reds are exploring trading outfielder Jay Bruce if the right deal were to surface. With the Hot Stove season inching closer with each passing day, it should come as no surprise that trade rumors are floating at increasingly a rapid rate. Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins have yet to be linked to any big name free agents or potential trade candidates. This should not come as a surprise to most Twins fans as Terry Ryan and the front office have given little indication that they are willing to go out and add any pieces to improve this team, beyond a posssible Black Friday special on the free agent heap toward the end of winter.The Reds are in a precarious position after a disappointing 2014 season that saw them finish 76-86, their worst season since 2008. Injuries could be pointed to as a reason for their ineffectiveness and failure to live up to expectations, but that is an excuse used for many teams across baseball each and every season. Whatever the reason, if the Reds are hoping to turn the tide and return to contention for the 2015 season, they will need players like Bruce to lead the turnaround. The fact that he is potentially being shopped makes little sense on the surface. In his career, Bruce has hit .251 with a .790 OPS, 182 home runs and 551 RBI. His best season was 2013 when he hit .262 with 30 HR and 109 RBI. Acquiring Bruce will not be easy and it will not come cheaply. However, looking more deeply at the situation in Cincinnati, one might be able to understand the spot the Reds are potentially facing and be able to comprehend the rationale of trading one of their most dynamic offensive weapons who is entering the prime of his career.

 

According to Sports Illustrated, the Reds are facing an unsettled situation after next season in regard to bringing back the majority of their 2014 starting rotation. Last season, the Reds signed Homer Bailey to a long-term contract. Outside of Bailey, the other four pitchers in the starting rotation—Johnny Cueto, Alfredo Simon, Mat Latos and Mike Leake—aren't signed past next season, nor is closer Aroldis Chapman. For a team hoping to remain in contention within a division that boasts the St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers, and the rapidly improving Chicago Cubs, having a solidified starting rotation and quality depth at the position is something of a necessity for the Reds. The Reds boasted one of the best starting staffs in all of baseball last season and though their 3.60 team ERA ranked in the middle of the NL, Reds pitchers held opposing batters to a league-best .239 average. Those numbers were largely credited to the starting rotation, whose collective 3.37 ERA ranked third in the NL. Needless to say, the reason the Reds were competitive had a lot to do with their quality starting pitching. If they wish to remain competitive, it will be via starting pitching and an offense centered around Joey Votto.

 

The window for playoff contention may be closing if the team fails to keep this staff intact, so trading a player like Bruce may be a way to free up payroll and also improve the team in other areas of weakness. This is where the Twins come in.

 

No, I have not started putting down the eggnog quite yet and yes, I am of stable mind when I stand behind this thought: The Twins should, can, and need to cash in on some of their young talent in order to acquire an established player this offseason. If there is one thing we know, it is that the Twins’ biggest area of weakness is their starting pitching and, to some extent, portions of their bullpen. However, the latter has a lot to do with the ineptitude of the starting rotation more than it has to do with the bullpen's talent. So why would the Twins want to invest in an area that is in less dire straits than their starting pitching? Because they have enough assets to do so and a move like this would significantly improve a lineup, and an outfield, that drastically needs it. Not to mention, a blockbuster trade like this would create a necessary buzz around the team that would hopefully keep dangling fans interested and buying tickets. In addition, the Twins have a general manager who is willing to take a risk when it comes to adding talent. In my opinion, things are a little too quiet around the Twins' front office which leads me to believe that there may be something brewing. Yet the main questions that Ryan and his staff must ask themselves, and what many fans reading this article are probably wondering is: What would it take to bring in Bruce and is he worth the price?

 

Reports out of Cincinnati indicate that the team is looking to add a left fielder and pitching depth to their rotation and bullpen. If they were to trade Bruce, they’d also have a vacancy in right field as, so that must also be factored into any potential equation. If I were in Ryan’s seat, I would begin the discussion by offering a package of Phil Hughes, Aaron Hicks, and someone from the duo of Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone. I know many fans may scoff at trading Hughes after his brilliant 2014 campaign, but his track record does not offer a lot of stability and if the Twins are serious about acquiring a talent like Bruce, it will likely cost them one of their best arms.

 

In Hughes’ case, why not sell high on a pitcher with an unpredictable future? He seems like exactly the type of pitcher the Reds would be looking to add to their already solid rotation and he would come with two years remaining on his deal and a payroll-friendly contract. Hicks has enough potential that the Reds may view him as a reclamation project and could plug him into an outfield spot with many years of control left at a cheap price. The inclusion of Nolasco would be a bit more difficult due to his poor 2014 season and the approximately $36 million left on his deal. But, like Hicks, the Reds could view Nolasco as a reclamation project with a solid track record in the National League who could be had at a reasonable price.

 

Another potential deal I believe the Reds might strongly consider would revolve around Brian Dozier. I’d be willing to part with Dozier, Hughes, and Hicks straight up for Bruce because he has the talent to transform a lineup and is signed through 2016 with a team option for 2017 to a payroll-friendly deal. There is no guarantee that Dozier will continue to perform at the level he had this past season and his value may be at its height. Also, he is due a hefty pay raise in the coming years and with suitable replacements potentially coming up through the minors (Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario), the Twins could use this as a perfect opportunity to flip Dozier for maximum value. A package of Dozier, Hughes, and Hicks could even fetch a lower level minor leaguer or two in the deal, but Bruce would be the centerpiece for any such deal. In addition, the Reds have been rumored to be shopping Brandon Phillips over the past few seasons and could be looking for his long-term replacement in the near future, which would make Dozier the ideal fit in this deal.

 

So why do I believe this would be a great deal for the Twins and their future? For one, in either deal that I have presented, the Twins would not be sacrificing any of their prized prospects such as Alex Meyer, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, J.O Berrios, Kennys Vargas, etc. Whether or not the Reds would be willing to trade Bruce without the inclusion of at least one of those prospects remains to be seen, but there is no guarantee that any of these players will ever live up to the hype that has been bestowed upon them throughout their minor league careers. With that in mind, why not trade for a proven commodity who is entering the prime of his career? If these stud prospects are kept, Bruce would be a cornerstone in place when the majority of these players make it to the majors. This may be one of the only times that the Twins have enough assets to get a player of his caliber without sacrificing numerous talented prospects.

 

With Bruce in the fold, the Twins could trot out a lineup that looks like this as early as next season:

1. Danny Santana SS

2. Joe Mauer 1B

3. Kennys Vargas DH

4. Jay Bruce RF

5. Miguel Sano 3B

6. Oswaldo Arcia LF

7. Trevor Plouffe/Eduardo Escobar/Nunez 2B

8. Kurt Suzuki C

9. Eddie Rosario/Jordan Shafer CF

 

And still have a pitching rotation of (in no particular order):

1. Kyle Gibson

2. Trevor May

3. Alex Meyer

4. Nolasco/Millone/Pelfrey

5. Free Agent starter (Justin Masterson, Brett Anderson, etc.)

 

Under this scenario, the Twins still will be waiting on Buxton, Berrios, etc. to be making their way to the majors. Much like the Twins of the early 2000s, the time has come where if the Twins are unwilling to spend money via free agency to bring in top-flight pitchers and if they are confident in the prospects that they have coming up, they should bring up the young pitchers (with a few veterans thrown in) and grow with them as they learn to pitch at the big league level. The Twins will then have the best evaluation information as to what they truly have with these kids and it will allow the front office to take the next step into turning this franchise around as the youngsters gain experience and learn from their mistakes.

 

Maybe the prospects crash and burn when they get to the majors and the team is back to losing 100 games again every season. At this point, who really knows for sure? At the same time, if the Twins were to begin losing 100 plus games every year because of the youth movement, they’d at least be doing it with players who are young and hopefully improving instead of cheap veterans who are on the last legs of their career. Trading for Bruce would not solve the Twins problems overnight. If anything, it would likely make the situation worse in the short-term. However, if the Twins are ever again to become a serious contender in this league it will rest on the arms of their young starting pitching that is developing in the minors and the bats of a productive lineup that can provide the starters with run support. Bruce improves the potential of any future Twins lineup immensely upon arrival and gives new coach Paul Molitor a masher who can anchor the lineup while the youngsters develop and provide stability at a position of great current concern. All that is needed now is for management to be willing to step outside their comfort zone and take a risk by making a blockbuster deal. Until then, we sit and wait as the Hot Stove adds one more coal to the fire.

 

Click here to view the article

[James]

News today that the Twins are on Bruce's limited no trade clause. 

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/details-on-jay-bruces-no-trade-clause.html

 

I had other issues with this idea, but they are kind of a moot point now that this came out.

[brvama]

You lost my interest when you suggested trading Hughes & Nolasco for an position that has a solution coming and only needs a short term fix. WHY weould you re-create the black hole the Twins have had the past 4 years? There is finally some improvement in the SP. I understand Nolasco sucked last year but really why would the Reds want him with their staff and also what is their need for Hughes. Just doesn't make sense for the Reds. Except to flip those players to others. From a Twins perspective this trade would create more problems then solving any. Plus it is way overpay IMHO.

[Dantes929]

What am I missing here?    

 

654 OPS in 2014 which is about  60 points less than the Twins averaged as a team.  .214 average in 137 games?    Bolstering an offense that has actually produced pretty well at the expense of our best 2014 pitcher when pitching is our biggest weakness.   I am all for selling guys when at their highest and buying guys at their lowest but you are suggesting selling our guys low to pay a ridiculously high price on a guy that should be going low.   .790 career OPS isn't even that impressive.   Hunter did better than that just a year ago.   Horrible idea.

[Paul Pleiss]

I'd be more intersted in the Twins acquiring Cueto and Phillips for Dozier and a prospect than bringing in Bruce for Dozier.

 

And now we have Torii, again. Hooray. (snark)

[hybridbear]

This doesn't make any sense. Bruce doesn't even seem like that good of a player. How does his WAR compare to that of the players you're looking to trade?

[nicksaviking]

WTF! Did I blackout again?! I don't remember posting this, in fact I don't even like Jay Bruce and remember saying I wouldn't trade for him, possibly even in this thread. 

 

Please tell me there is some kind of IT issue here and I'm not schizophrenic!

[John Bonnes]

It's possible that Hughes is the most untouchable player in the organization right now. As much hype as Buxton/Sano are hyped, Hughes is already a star performer at an area that the Twins are critically short. He can't be included in any deal for Bruce. 

[ashbury]

WTF! Did I blackout again?! I don't remember posting this

There was a little snafu in trying to move or merge some articles, if I remember correctly.  It would take an act of Brock to fix the mis-attribution.  Maybe send him a PM if you want it cleaned up.

[shs_59]

Dozier + Hughes + Hicks (or someone similar)

 

>>>

 

Than Jay Bruce

 

althought the Reds might see that as a solid fair trade I do not exactly.

 

Close but not a great trade idea I don't think.

[gunnarthor]

I'm not opposed to the idea of trying to grab someone like Bruce (or others in CIncy) but not at that price.  

[Eephus]

better hope the Reds front office isn't reading this or we'll never be able to get them to over-value Dozier.

[nicksaviking]

Ha, thanks for the disclaimer Brock.

[ashbury]

Ha, thanks for the disclaimer Brock.

Why didn't the moderator on duty think of that solution?

[clone52]

I'm not opposed to the idea of trying to grab someone like Bruce (or others in CIncy) but not at that price.  

 

Those are crazy prices to get someone who had an OPS on par with Eduardo Nunez and Chris Colabello last year.