Article: The Twins Awful, Unrepeatable Second Half

[James Richter]

At the All-Star break, the Twins were in decent shape, just 6 games under .500 and on pace to finish with a win total in the mid-70s that would have demonstrated clear progress in their rebuilding efforts. But at the beginning of the second half they faltered, dropping 9 of 13, the first 10 of which were at home, to finish July. Now 11 under .500 and 11 games out of first place, it was time to sell the veterans and turn to youth.Out with Kendrys Morales, Josh Willingham, Kevin Correia and Matt Guerrier, in with Kennys Vargas, Jordan Schafer, Trevor May, and Ryan Pressly.

 

The newly reconstituted roster quickly descended into the most wretched stretch of the season, going 14-27 from the beginning of August through mid-September, outraging the fan base and costing Gardy his job at season’s end. But I’m OK with beginning 2015 with about 80% of the players who were on the field for those last 2 months, and you should be, too! Here’s why:

 

The offense was better

 

After a surprisingly high-scoring April (fueled by a sky-high OBP) the pendulum swung the other way in May. The average of those two months corresponded pretty well with the .690-ish team OPS the Twins put up in the two months ofJune & July. Through the first two-thirds of the season, the offense averaged a tick over 4 R/G. But in the final 55 games, they exploded for 280 R, increasing the per-game average by over a run. Over a full season, 90% of that scoring rate would have produced the #4 offense in baseball. And 90% of the extremely good BABIP the Twins put up over those final two months would be more or less the league average.

 

There will certainly be regression from some players, most notably Santana. But there were several positions that provided below average production in the final months, too. Not only did Suzuki’s all-star first half not carry over, but his second half results were beneath his modest career averages. Mauer, though much better than he was in the spring, was still well short of his career average OPS of .860 or so. Dozier continued to get on base, but didn’t sustain the HR and SB pace he established over the early part of the season. That the baserunners accumulated nearly as many SB (49) in 68 second half games as they did in 94 first half games (50), with little contribution from Dozier, is an indication of how much more baserunning can be a weapon for the Twins next year.

 

All told, when looking at the rates the hitters put up in August & September, I’d expect a lot less (upwards of .100 OPS) from Santana, a bit less from Plouffe, Schafer, & Escobar and about the same from Arcia & Vargas. Also, a bit more from Dozier and Hicks, and a quite a bit more (upwards of .050 OPS) from Mauer and the catchers, especially with Pinto getting the PAs that were going to Fryer A repeat of 2014’s 714 runs scored seems like a pretty safe floor for this offense.

 

The starting pitching was better

 

Seriously:

 

First half: 5.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 8.7% HR/FB, .319 BABIP, 4.86 ERA, 4.21 xFIP

Second half: 7.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 9.8% HR/FB, .333 BABIP, 5.35 ERA, 3.89 xFIP

 

And the prospects for 2015 are even better than that. 25 rather horrendous second half starts were made by pitchers who will not be starting games for the Twins next year: Kevin Correia (4 GS, 4.79 xFIP), Anthony Swarzak (4, 4.86), Yohan Pino (6, 4.02 – he deserved better), Kris Johnson (1, 4.57), Logan Darnell (4, 3.38 – but so many HRs), weirdly awful Tommy Milone (5, 5.27) and the MLB debut of Trevor May (1, 16.10(!)). It’s possible that Darnell could see some spot starts next year, though I’d expect him to be well down the depth chart. Whatever was going on with Milone in August, it was unprecedented in nearly 80 prior career GS. Should he be asked to start in 2015 I’d expect to see that guy (4.22 xFIP) rather than the doppelganger who made such a poor first impression in Minnesota.

 

The Twins quietly finished the second half of the season with an effective front four: Phil Hughes (13, 3.20), Kyle Gibson (13, 3.76), Ricky Nolasco (9, 3.71) and not-making-his-MLB-debut May (8, 3.77). Each of those xFIPs was league average or better, and Hughes can afford a ton of regression in his walk rate before he would fall below that standard. Gibson’s growth should be expected of a high-pedigree prospect with 25+ career GS under his belt, and post-DL Nolasco was essentially the guy they signed to the biggest FA contract in team history.

 

That the starters’ ERA for the most part drastically overshot their xFIP is the result of a complex cocktail whose ingredients include bad luck on balls in play, bad defense, bad pitching with men on base, and bad work from a bullpen that failed to strand inherited runners. Of those factors, the pitching with men on is the only thing the starters can really control and should be a matter of focus for them as they prepare for next season.

 

The Bullpen sucked!

 

As alluded to above, the bullpen didn’t do the starters any favors. They couldn’t strand runners, couldn’t protect leads, couldn’t consistently get the outs they were brought in to get. They were last in the majors in second half K/9 by a large margin, and as a group were below replacement level. I believe a league average relief squad would have netted the Twins at least 5 additional wins in 2014 and lessened a lot of the hysteria related to four straight 90+ loss seasons.

 

So why am I OK with that performance? Because it’s a result of a multitude of failures that are very unlikely to be repeated. Relievers are the most fungible asset in baseball, as demonstrated by the Twins scooping up Casey Fien and Jared Burton off the scrap heap before the 2012 season. Even elite FA relievers with extensive track records cost much less per season and demand shorter-term contracts than starters and position players. The Twins have already declined Burton’s services for 2015, and I expect them to pass on Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak, too. That trio combined to allow 21 inherited runners to score just in the awful quarter of a season from August 1^st to mid-September. Replacing them with average or better relievers will make a huge difference.

 

Some of those replacements might already be under team control. AAA Rochester’s bullpen was excellent all season. Michael Tonkin and Aaron Thompson were pretty effective in their September call-ups, and Lester Oliveros completed the season with five straight scoreless appearances totaling 5.2 IP, 5 K, 1 H and 1 BB. And, close behind them, the upper minors are loaded with high-velocity arms that could find their way onto the team by the second half of 2015: Nick Burdi, Zach Jones, Jake Reed… The days of the Twins bringing up the rear in bullpen K% may already be behind us.

 

Better Luck Next Year

 

In 2014 the Twins allowed a very poor BABIP for the second consecutive year and it will take some improvements to the defense (especially the OF) to get that back into the average range. But that OF defense was similarly bad 2013, and yet the BABIP was a few points worse last year. All of the negative difference came in the second half, when the pitchers suffered a .328 BABIP despite having two of Schafer, Santana and Hicks in the OF most of the time. Certainly, there was some very bad pitching after the All-Star break. There was also a lot of OK to good pitching with some very bad luck.

 

Look back through some of the game logs in which the Twins allowed huge crooked numbers. In many cases those innings were prolonged by one or more infield or bunt hits. I can never fault a pitcher for giving up a hit because he induced a batter to hit a GB too slowly, or in the perfect spot. It’s maddening, but those results are fairly random, and the wheel tends to swing back the other way as time goes on. The group we saw in August and September, given average luck on their balls in play, might have erased their 17 run deficit and finished with an even or better run differential over those two months.

 

And there’s one other wild swing of luck we need to consider – when the runs were scored. Over the first four months of the season, the Twins’ record corresponded perfectly with their pythagorean record – the estimated winning % derived from the total scores of their games. The total scores they produced after the trade deadline should have been good for a 26-29 record, but instead came up well short at 22-33. Isolate it further by separating the final 14 games of the season and you find that the Twins’ entire shortfall in expected wins occurred within that disastrous 41-game stretch from August 1^st-September 13^th.

 

The most obvious place this shows up is in games decided by 1 run. Within this late-summer stretch, the Twins were 1-8 in 1-run games. In the other ¾ of the season, they were 20-16. Had they continued to win those closest games at the same rate as they had been doing, they would have gone 5-4 in those 9 games. There’s your 4 extra wins. Losing very close games is not an unexpected byproduct of having everybody in the bullpen fail at the same time.

 

Focus on the Finish

 

A lot of people had understandably stopped paying attention to the Twins by mid-September, when things finally stabilized. The offense continued to score about 5 R/G. The pitching - excepting 13 dreadful spot start IP from Swarzak – put up a 3.70 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Half of those 14 games came against a very productive Tigers lineup that was fighting for playoff position.

We saw that some of these guys can be pretty good. May had two quality starts and a 20/3 K/BB ratio. Nolasco also had two quality starts in three starts with a 16/4 K/BB ratio. Vargas broke out of his early-September slump by re-adding walks to his game – eight BB in the final week, where he’d had just four in the previous seven! Dozier rediscovered his power, Mauer got his average back over .300.

 

Much of the fans’ sour impression of the Twins comes from the terrible results of that awful late-summer run. There was plenty of bad baseball there, to be sure. There was also a lot of absurdly bad luck, and several performances that are unlikely to be repeated – whether because of changing personnel, better health, or the maturation of young players. When you think about what the Twins need to do to improve in 2015, remember those caveats, and build from the final days of September instead of the first days of August.

 

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[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I think they are closer than people realize. They really need to do something about LF, and if they can get a high upside pitcher, that would help too.

 

I also think Plouffe, Arcia, and Dozier will improve.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I wouldn't call it unrepeatable. They've had similar stretches (granted with washed up old has-beens or never-was' on the roster) in each of the last 4 seasons. However I agree that there are reasons for optimism. BABIP will continue to be really poor for starters and relievers unless the team acquires both a LF and CF. With Buxton on the horizon, I don't see that happening. Maybe LF free agent could happen, or maybe a minor leaguer (Rosario or other) could surprise this spring.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I also think Plouffe, Arcia, and Dozier will improve.

I have my doubts Plouffe and Dozier will take large steps. Their development as players should be incremental. Arcia on the other hand has room for making the big jump.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins have already declined Burton’s services for 2015, and I expect them to pass on Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak, too. That trio combined to allow 21 inherited runners to score just in the awful quarter of a season from August 1^st to mid-September. Replacing them with average or better relievers will make a huge difference.

You posted this in another thread, and I corrected it there too, but apparently you didn't see it.

 

First off, looking at game logs, from July 11 until the end of the season, that trio only allowed 16 inherited runners to score.  Not sure how you come up with 21 for a subset of that.

 

Second, even though "awful" period you define (Aug. 1 - Sep. 15) contains all 16 of those runs, they received a total of 39 inherited runners during that span.  That's 41%, which is indeed worse than the Twins season percentage of 31%, or the 2014 AL rate of 29%, but it only represents a difference of 3 runs worse than average over that span.

[Otto von Ballpark]

All told, when looking at the rates the hitters put up in August & September, I’d expect a lot less (upwards of .100 OPS) from Santana, a bit less from Plouffe, Schafer, & Escobar and about the same from Arcia & Vargas. Also, a bit more from Dozier and Hicks, and a quite a bit more (upwards of .050 OPS) from Mauer and the catchers, especially with Pinto getting the PAs that were going to Fryer A repeat of 2014’s 714 runs scored seems like a pretty safe floor for this offense.

Dozier posted a career high OPS/OPS+ at age 27 -- and you're expecting "a bit more" from him?

 

Suzuki posted a career high OPS+ (by a good margin) at age 30, Pinto was a league-average hitter, and Fryer only got 81 PA -- and you're expecting "quite a bit more" from the catcher position?

 

Also, you have high expectations for Mauer and Arcia based on August and September... but you ignore that Dozier and Suzuki had second half OPS figures much closer to their career averages than their first half marks.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And there’s one other wild swing of luck we need to consider – when the runs were scored. Over the first four months of the season, the Twins’ record corresponded perfectly with their pythagorean record – the estimated winning % derived from the total scores of their games. The total scores they produced after the trade deadline should have been good for a 26-29 record, but instead came up well short at 22-33. Isolate it further by separating the final 14 games of the season and you find that the Twins’ entire shortfall in expected wins occurred within that disastrous 41-game stretch from August 1^st-September 13^th.

Actually, pretty much the entirety of that pythag shortfall could be attributed to their massive blowout wins on August 3 and August 22 -- those two games featured by far their largest run differentials of the Twins season (either wins or losses).

[Dantes929]

Saying you expect about the same from Arcia kind of jumped out to me.   I think this guys is capable of so much more if he can continue to reign in his impulse to go for the fences.    This is a guy that should focus on average because the power is natural.    The bullpen did a nice job most of the season but I saw about 5 games in just two weeks toward the end that they just gave away.   Better rotation alone will make the bullpen better.  They were just used too much.    I also believe that once we get Rosario or Buxton up the outfield defense will be worth a lot of runs.   I agree that everything Milone has done prior to the Twins shouts that he is way better than Correia or Pelfrey and should be better in 2015.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, this is exactly what happened each of the last 4 years.....so unless substantive changes are made, not sure why we'd expect something different next year.

 

The have no MLB average LF or CF even on the 40 man roster......hard to feel they'll definitely be better at this point. I do think they will be, but I didn't really find any of your arguments compelling. It's pretty easy to cherry pick stats for pitchers. The bullpen is fungible, except for some reason the Twins don't treat it that way much. Someone else already pointed out the fallacy in your catcher expectations, and your Dozier expectations (and I agree with them on that).

 

Until they have a LF and CF and RP, and a 5th starter, it's pretty hard to argue that they must be better, given that's what they've been for 4 years now. At least it is for me. 

[blindeke]

I have my doubts Plouffe and Dozier will take large steps. Their development as players should be incremental. Arcia on the other hand has room for making the big jump.

i had a bad dream about Arcia the other day

[Brandon]

I think the Twins are basically 1 starting pitcher, 1 OF, and 1 reliever away from being an 85+ win potential team next season. 

 

The stat not thrown out there was Escobar's offense.  he was dynamite the first half and slumped the second half and finished with what a 102 league adjusted OPS which was around 6th in MLB among SS.  I am still not sure what to make of Dozier.  I think he ay be more of a .250/.330/.420 with 35 2Bs and 10-15 HR with 15-25 SB next season. I think his fielding should be above average next season.  Here's to hoping Mauer hits .300/.380/.380 next season.  That can at least justify him in the lineup at 1B.  Plouffe is what he is and I don't expect any different .250-.270 with 30-35 2Bs and 15-20 HRs I am glad to see his defense improve and I think that's what most people wanted was league average defense from him so he would not kill what value he brings with the bat.  Suzuki will regress some but he seems to have sacrificed some power for average.  So I think he will have a .270-.290 average with 25 -30 2Bs and hardly any HRs with ok defense.  I'm ok with whoever the back up is too as either the end of next year or the following season the back up should be Stuart before he starts the following year.  Santana can start at SS or CF next season and Escobar could be the SS or supersub.  For this analysis I am going with Santana in CF. that makes Nunez and Santana the backups.  Nunez has terrible defense and offers a little at the plate.  I wonder if Bernier could push for a reserve job as I am sure his defense is better but probably hits worse than Nunez.  Nunez does have speed so while I do expect an OPS in the low to mid .600's I do expect more SB out of him.  I think he should be capable of 15-20 meaning he could be a valuable pinch runner for Suzuki, Arcia or Plouffe, or Mauer or Vargas at different points next year.

 

In the OF we start with Arcia cause its fun and we don't want to think about the other options right now.  but Arcia can be a 30 HR hitter and in CF I am going with Santana who I think can continue to hit .290-.310 cause he has speed and made good contact and Bruno.  He doesn't walk a whole lot and has gap power so 30-40 2Bs and around 5-10 3Bs and HRs.  LF we have Schaefer/ Parmelee/ Colabello/ Hicks.  I am going to say what I think each of these players can do with 300 AB next season and we'll see how LF looks on opening day.  Schaefer: if Bruno is able to keep him hitting I can see a .260-.280 / .320-.330/ .320 with 20-40 SB.  This guy is pretty fast.  Parmalee .250/ .290/.400 with 8-12 HR just shy of good power, average, and no patience to walk.  He's a prototypical 5th OF/back up 1B/DH/ PH.  He has value so I like him on the team just not exposed a lot.  Colabello:  I have him here only cause there are reports he was injured during his slide.  If that is true he could be our LF for a few years and hit good.  or he could be a failure waiting to happen.  Just to see I would keep him around.  I have no projections here cause he's either going to be good healthy or fail IMO I don't see an in between. Hicks.  He is also an asset in certain spots.  right now as a back up OF.  he doesn't drive the ball so all of his contact is soft.  I can see a .220/ .310/.310 with what should be 10-15 SB.  last year he only stole 2 or 3.  So going into next year I see a Hicks Parmelee platoon where Schaefer will likely replace Hicks at some point if he doesn't improve.  Unless Colabello comes out of know where and drives in 80-100 RBI.

 

The rotation has 3 starters

Hughes (CY Young Candidate)

Gibson (improving young hurler)

Nolasco (solid when healthy)

 

then lets see we have 2 rookies ready to go May and Meyer and May looks ready to continue moving forward and Pelfry and Millone 2 vets who were hurt with the team last year and Pino the minor league vet who pitched ok then was hurt.  The way I see it is we can plan on Millone being the 4th starter and being a good one or we can sign or trade someone with a better track record and has better stuff.  We can also let May and Meyer come up together and have Pelfy, Pino and Millone as the back up veterans if we need a fill in.  I think it depends on how fast the Twins management want to ensure a return to competitive baseball.  I think there is enough pressure so the Twins will want more pitching and sign one or trade for one. 

 

The bullpen appears to be going through a transition a little.  with the Twins keep Swarzak and Deunsing for another season?  I think they keep Deunsing and let Swarzak go.  leaving Perkins, Fien, Deunsing, Theilbar, Pressly, then the Twins will go with Pelfry, then a combination of a bunch of potentials including Aaron Thomas, Oliveras, Tonkin and Achter.  However I think that by the end of may/ Beginning of June Burdi will make his debut and stay.

 

To bring this full circle we need a good starting pitcher to be the 4th starter but someone who is Number 3 starter material or better, a LF who doesn't have to be great but preferably a solid defender with slightly above average offense (Rios fits that the best IMO though Hunter would be the most entertaining to have on the team) and a shut down middle reliever cause maybe we can let Deunsing or Theilbar or Pressly go.

[notoriousgod71]

I think the Twins are basically 1 starting pitcher, 1 OF, and 1 reliever away from being an 85+ win potential team next season. 

 

 

 

Agreed, now let's go get 1999 Pedro Martinez, 2001 Barry Bonds, and 2003 Eric Gagne.

[James Richter]

Dozier posted a career high OPS/OPS+ at age 27 -- and you're expecting "a bit more" from him?

 

Suzuki posted a career high OPS+ (by a good margin) at age 30, Pinto was a league-average hitter, and Fryer only got 81 PA -- and you're expecting "quite a bit more" from the catcher position?

 

Also, you have high expectations for Mauer and Arcia based on August and September... but you ignore that Dozier and Suzuki had second half OPS figures much closer to their career averages than their first half marks.

I'm focusing on how much offense to expect next year relative to the offensive surge in August-September. For example, for all of 2015, I'm expecting career-average Suzuki + Pinto to provide "quite a bit more" offense than slumping Suzuki + Fryer (+ a tiny bit of Pinto) provided in Aug-Sept. Overall, I expect Suzuki to put up lower numbers than 2014, but probably better than he had in the 2nd half.

 

Basically just pointing out that, even though the runs were coming in big bunches, not every position in the lineup was searing hot the last 2 months.

[USAFChief]

Agreed, now let's go get 1999 Pedro Martinez, 2001 Barry Bonds, and 2003 Eric Gagne.

dont be ridiculous. Kershaw, trout and kimbrell will do the trick.

[James Richter]

Well, this is exactly what happened each of the last 4 years.....so unless substantive changes are made, not sure why we'd expect something different next year.

Aug-Sept run differentials the last 4 years:

 

2011: -94

2012: -44

2013: -120

2014: -17

 

To me, that's not exactly the same thing.

 

Until they have a LF and CF and RP, and a 5th starter, it's pretty hard to argue that they must be better, given that's what they've been for 4 years now. At least it is for me. 

I chose not to address roster needs in this post (it was already pretty long, eh?), but I'm basically on the same page with you here. If they stick with Duensing and Swarzak, and the current SP depth, and sign somebody like Torii Hunter, they're going to have a lot of balls in play that are going to drop in and contribute to big innings. But, if they sign a SP with mid-rotation upside, replace Duensing and Swarzak with even league-average relievers, and acquire at least one OF with elite defense, I think all the other ingredients are there for an 80-something win total.

 

That Duensing & Swarzak are still on the 40-man and the Twins are reportedly pursuing Hunter is definitely discouraging.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Aug-Sept run differentials the last 4 years:

 

2011: -94

2012: -44

2013: -120

2014: -17

 

To me, that's not exactly the same thing.

It should be noted, if you take out our blowout wins on August 3 and August 22, our August-September run differential is -44, identical to 2012.

[ashbury]

It should be noted, if you take out our blowout wins on August 3 and August 22, our August-September run differential is -44, identical to 2012.

What if you take out two big wins in the second half of 2012?  10-0 over Seattle August 29, 18-9 over White Sox September 4, say?

[Mike Sixel]

That run differential is a lot different, thanks for the reminder.....it is a stat that does bother me some though, because of the outliers. What I really want to know is: how many times did they score 5 or more runs in a game last year (or whatever the number is that gets you in the 60-70% chance you win a game).

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm focusing on how much offense to expect next year relative to the offensive surge in August-September. For example, for all of 2015, I'm expecting career-average Suzuki + Pinto to provide "quite a bit more" offense than slumping Suzuki + Fryer (+ a tiny bit of Pinto) provided in Aug-Sept. Overall, I expect Suzuki to put up lower numbers than 2014, but probably better than he had in the 2nd half.

 

Basically just pointing out that, even though the runs were coming in big bunches, not every position in the lineup was searing hot the last 2 months.

Thanks for the explanation.

 

The Twins scored the most runs and had the highest wRC+ in the league in the 2nd half last year -- there were definitely some encouraging performances, but luck probably played a positive role in that.

 

Basically every returning hitter in the lineup except Mauer and Suzuki roughly equaled or exceeded their career BEST hitting performances by wRC+ (over any similar size sample) in that second half.    And even Mauer and Suzuki roughly equaled their career marks over the second half.

 

While I am encouraged by this group, I'd argue that their good luck is probably just as "unrepeatable" as some of the bad luck you cite.  (Hughes' 0.51 BB/9 is another one that sticks out to me!)

[Otto von Ballpark]

What if you take out two big wins in the second half of 2012?  10-0 over Seattle August 29, 18-9 over White Sox September 4, say?

I shouldn't have waded into the years comparison, it wasn't really my intent, sorry.  Although after 2012 there was some similar optimism around here -- Hendriks, Deduno, and Devries were the three starters of note (with Gibson returning from injury), Parmelee was getting props for his September steadiness, and people were plugging in Hicks' ZIPS projections and saying, "hey! this might get better!"  Obviously I like our current team better, but just some words of caution.

 

I do think perhaps this 2014 Twins lineup was more prone to feast or famine, and I'm not sure that's all due to luck.  As I mention above, the author made some specific claims about our 2nd half pythagorean wins, but almost all of that underperformance was due to the extreme run differentials in those two games.

[James Richter]

The extreme wins are sort of the point. They got way more runs than they needed a couple of times, and came up 1 run short more than their share. Score the same runs in a different game and some losses turn into wins.

 

The Aug. 22-24 series with the Tigers is a perfect example. The Twins outscored the Tigers 42-31 over the 4 games, but only managed to go 2-2

. In the double-header, they scored 12 in one game and 6 in the other. They allowed 8 and 4. Instead of sweeping 12-8, 6-4, they split. If Pino had started the 2nd game, they'd have gotten an extra win for the same number of runs. It didn't really matter which pitcher started which game in terms of rest and the rotation. It was just unlucky it worked out the way it did, wasn't it?

 

 

That run differential is a lot different, thanks for the reminder.....it is a stat that does bother me some though, because of the outliers. What I really want to know is: how many times did they score 5 or more runs in a game last year (or whatever the number is that gets you in the 60-70% chance you win a game).

A quick check of the schedule results looks like 17 games in that wretched 41-game stretch where they scored 5 or more runs, and they only won 8.

[Mike Sixel]

Yikes.....that's 50%. I'd think that the league has a higher percent than that....which is of course why they should sign run preventers right now.

[ashbury]

I shouldn't have waded into the years comparison, it wasn't really my intent, sorry. 

No worries. 

[James Richter]

You posted this in another thread, and I corrected it there too, but apparently you didn't see it.

 

First off, looking at game logs, from July 11 until the end of the season, that trio only allowed 16 inherited runners to score.  Not sure how you come up with 21 for a subset of that.

 

Second, even though "awful" period you define (Aug. 1 - Sep. 15) contains all 16 of those runs, they received a total of 39 inherited runners during that span.  That's 41%, which is indeed worse than the Twins season percentage of 31%, or the 2014 AL rate of 29%, but it only represents a difference of 3 runs worse than average over that span.

I wish I'd caught the earlier correction - looks like my accounting was spread over too many bleary, late nights. In my mind, I was giving Duensing extra demerits for his failure to get Alex Gordon on 8/27. Though technically not allowing any inherited runners, he was supposed to get the last out of that inning (lefty vs. lefty), and, because he didn't, an extra 4 runs scored.

 

I should have said something like, "because those guys didn't get the outs they were brought in to get, the Twins gave up 20 extra runs, most charged to other pitchers." Not my strongest point.

 

But those 3 gave up too many of their own runs, too. The team would be better off without them next year, wouldn't you agree?

[The Wise One]

a 6-1 loss is no different than a 2-1 loss.

Casey Fien not getting a batter out sooner led to the 4 runs. In the end the difference of four more runs was inconsequential except to the season's statics for the Royal player. They may need every bit of leverage an extra bump up in their statistics they can get. Their agents might think the Royals use OPSBI

[Otto von Ballpark]

The extreme wins are sort of the point. They got way more runs than they needed a couple of times, and came up 1 run short more than their share. Score the same runs in a different game and some losses turn into wins.

But I think pythag record breaks down a bit as a meaningful predictor when it is used over small samples of games containing major outlier run differentials, no?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I should have said something like, "because those guys didn't get the outs they were brought in to get, the Twins gave up 20 extra runs, most charged to other pitchers." Not my strongest point.

But even then, they weren't "extra" runs over what a replacement would allow. Even the very best bullpen in the league would have allowed 8 inherited runners to score, vs the 16 from this group.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens with these guys -- it might be best for us to move on, but that would be commiting to a pretty massive bullpen overhaul, not sure if the Twins would actually do that.

[James Richter]

But even then, they weren't "extra" runs over what a replacement would allow. Even the very best bullpen in the league would have allowed 8 inherited runners to score, vs the 16 from this group.

I've conceded that I miscounted and overstated. Your reply here actually underscores my point: They performed at replacement level. Average relievers would have allowed fewer runs, good relievers fewer still. So let's replace them.

[James Richter]

But I think pythag record breaks down a bit as a meaningful predictor when it is used over small samples of games containing major outlier run differentials, no?

Not at all. Pythag can indicate a discrepancy in W-L record in as little as 3 games. There are a few formulas of increasing complexity to pinpoint an expected record, but they flow from a very simple, intuitive principle: A team that scores more runs than it allows should have a winning record. So if you outscore your opponent 15-14 over a weekend series and come away with only 1 win, you can already see that you're underperforming.

 

I don't think of Pythag a predictor, but rather as alternative way of measuring team performance. In the case of the Twins' last 2 months, it serves to emphasize that, as poorly as they played in many facets of the game, they still should have won a lot more games than they did, and they don't have as far to go to be a winner as their record over that stretch would suggest.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not at all. Pythag can indicate a discrepancy in W-L record in as little as 3 games. There are a few formulas of increasing complexity to pinpoint an expected record, but they flow from a very simple, intuitive principle: A team that scores more runs than it allows should have a winning record. So if you outscore your opponent 15-14 over a weekend series and come away with only 1 win, you can already see that you're underperforming.

But if you hypothetically outscore your opponent 15-14 only because you won one game 14-2 against a bad starter, mopup guys, and a position player pitcher, I really don't know if you're underperforming with a 1-2 record that series.

 

Over a larger sample, those things tend to even out, but when you take a one-quarter slice of the season containing our two biggest run differential games, you're still dealing with pretty big error bars.

Edited November 24, 2014 by spycake