Article: Early Offseason Rumors

[Mike Sixel]

Sano will start in the minors, that's been clearly stated by TR, I believe*

 

*unless I remember wrong, which is possible.

[Willihammer]

The truth is that pretty much all teams avoiding rushing players because it harms development.

Were Santana's and Vargas's developments harmed? What about Colabello and Parmelee, do they need more time in the minors?

 

I agree that as a rule, its not smart to plan on prospects to fill out your starting roster. On the other hand, you have to look at prospects on a case by case basis. The Twins should know better than anyone that minor league success or failure isn't an absolute determinant of MLB success or failure, and some guys will be ready before their OPS reaches a certain threshold while plenty of guys are never going to be MLB players no matter how much they dominate the minors.

 

All I'm saying is if Rosario shares whatever characteristics that players in the former camp have, then the Twins should take their foot off the brake and press the gas just like they did with Santana and Vargas because clearly those two benefited from early promotion (as did the team).

Edited November 17, 2014 by Willihammer

[Brandon]

Our offense went through a transformation last year with Colabello and Kubel starting off with good Aprils then Willingham and Arcia picked up as they were tailing off then Santana, Mauer, and Vargas took over the last few months of the season.  Dozier hit with HR power at first then 2bs power there after but was otherwise consistant all year as was Susuki (he did slump for about a month after signing the extension but finished strong)

 

So going into next season we still have the offensive core that finished strong so we really just need a decent OF who can reasonably field or one that can really hit.  Hunter and Rios would be at the top of my wishlist this offseason maybe Denorfia then Aoki after that I am fine with what we already have. 

 

I wonder if Colabello, who claims he was injured last year when his slump began, will he be able to rebound and be a good hitter next season.  Parmelee is now 27.  Can he make it as a starter in LF.  odds are no but he does have the ability to hit 15 to 20 HRs and he isn't bad defensively.  Schaefer is probably better suited to be a 4th OF but if he can continue to get on base at least .330 + he definitely has a lot of speed to swipe 20-40 bases.  I am ready to concede Hicks as a 4th/5th OF at this point.  There has been no progress in his ability to drive the ball against better competition.  He can definitely walk more than anyone and plays good defense.  That has some value not enough to necessarily start.  Someone should make a decent LF from this bunch if need be. 

[Sam Morley]

The only thing resembling consistency from Masterson is his BB/9, career close to 4. Last season, he was terrible. Maybe he was pitching hurt? St. Louis thought so and apparently thought he was through it when they traded for him in July:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/justin-masterson-could-be-quite-a-bit-better-with-cardinals/

 

Maybe he was still hurt? He was certainly still bad.

 

I don't really like the whole 'it turned out with Hughes so maybe it'll turn out with Masterson too' line of thinking. I think 'roll of the dice' is more appropriate, and I don't think Hughes was really a roll of the dice. There was basically a national baseball media consensus that Hughes profiled badly at Yankee Stadium and would be a good fit in Minnesota. I don't really see any of those types of factors at play with Masterson. But if we are up for rolling dice, why not roll rather on Josh Johnson? Masterson at his best is still pretty meh. Johnson, when healthy, is always at his best and is an ace. And what's good for an elbow once has got to be even better the second time!

[nicksaviking]

I will be angry if the Twins sign Materson, which keeps May and Meyer in AAA all season.  Materson's velocity has dropped significantly to the point that he barely cracks 90 on his fastball.  DO we REALLY need a right handed version of Milone?  A junkballer?  I just don't see the logic of this.  May and Meyer will BOTH be better pitchers then Materson, Nolasco and Gibson.  This is utter stupidity signing this guy.  If the Indians want nothing to do with him, you can bet he's damaged goods.  

 

Well the assumption is that Masterson will only get/request a 1-year deal.  That says two things.

 

First, Ryan has had no problem cutting bait on players on the final year of their deals, so if he stinks, I don't think he'll block anyone, he'll go to the pen, get released or traded.

 

Second, it says that Masterson and his camp don't believe his damage is irreversable.  A truely damaged goods pitcher would probably take even a low AAV in exchange for multiple years.

 

Otherwise I agree with you.  I don't want any more back of the rotation, multi-year contracts blocking May or Meyer.

[Sam Morley]

And an emphatic NO on Aoki, or I will be throwing up in my mouth a little everytime I have to see that abominable running slap-swing of his. Blech. Blech. Swing the bat like a man.

[twinsfanstreif]

Yea, there's a reason that the Royals are looking to upgrade from Aoki

[James Richter]

Rosario's numbers since his 2013 promotion to AA:

 

2013 AA: .742

2014: A+: .682

2014 AA: .672

2014 AFL: .755

 

Is that a guy you really want to promote right now?

The average hitter in the AFL this year had an OPS of around .720. Also, Rosario went 4-5 with a 2B & HR in the championship game. When you add that in to his stats, he winds up with an .832 OPS. He was clearly one of the better hitters in the AFL, which is ostensibly comprised of the cream of AA. Which does not mean he's ready for MLB, but AAA would be reasonable.

[cmb0252]

Insanely active off season so far. Hopefully Ryan isn't just sitting in the office trying to figure out which former Twin/local coach to add to the coaching staff. Deals are happening!

[Sam Morley]

Also, it seems like when talking about signing projects like Masterson, Johnson, or Brett Anderson (or really any pitcher at all), it might be good if the Twins hurried up and hired a pitching coach to consult.

[Boom Boom]

When he was originally promoted, Aaron Hicks had more recent success in MiLB than Rosario has had in MiLB in the past 18 months.

 

Let's not repeat the Aaron Hicks situation.

 

It takes a special kind of player to flop on the level of Aaron Hicks.  

 

It seems to me like bad policy to expect the worst case scenario out of every prospect that might be promoted too early.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It takes a special kind of player to flop on the level of Aaron Hicks.  

 

It seems to me like bad policy to expect the worst case scenario out of every prospect that might be promoted too early.

 

I agree with this.

 

But, the context of this discussion seems to be, do you acquire a MLB OF for 2015, or do you let Rosario compete for a job along with the scraps leftover from our 2014 outfield?  You don't have to expect the worst case from Rosario to see how the latter option is far riskier.

 

Heck, with Santana apparently heading back to SS, we have TWO openings in the OF.  We could acquire a veteran for one spot and there would still be plenty of room for Rosario to force himself into the lineup.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The average hitter in the AFL this year had an OPS of around .720. Also, Rosario went 4-5 with a 2B & HR in the championship game. When you add that in to his stats, he winds up with an .832 OPS. He was clearly one of the better hitters in the AFL, which is ostensibly comprised of the cream of AA. Which does not mean he's ready for MLB, but AAA would be reasonable.

Anytime an OPS can be swung by 80 points in one game, you're probably dealing with a too-small sample!  Although I agree it was encouraging for Rosario.  With a good spring, I could see him opening in AAA despite his 2014 regular season performances.

[Mike Sixel]

I think we are all dreaming if we think any of Rosario, Sano, Buxton start the year in MN. I think it is likely Meyer is in the minors. I think Burdi is in the minors. 

 

Frankly, I don't see a lot of help from the minors the first 2 months of the year, unless Meyer is up.....

[nicksaviking]

Jerry Crasnick says Masterson is finding a very active market for his services. 

 

https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/534361908334587905

 

Mark Polishuk at MLBTR extrapolates a bit about the known suitors:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/multiple-teams-interested-in-justin-masterson.html

 

 My favorite line: "The six teams Crasnick lists present an interesting array of suitors, incorporating the two pennant winners, three teams looking to return to contention in 2015 and the rebuilding Twins..."

 

For the record, one of the "three teams looking to return to contention in 2015" is the Cubs.  The Twins can't even keep company with the Cubs these days!

[TheLeviathan]

Were Santana's and Vargas's developments harmed? What about Colabello and Parmelee, do they need more time in the minors?

 

It's hard to argue a counterfactual, especially when you agree with the premise.  i'm not opposed to rushing some kids, but many people are recommending that become the default way of filling positions.  I'm not comfortable with that.

 

And I'm certainly not ready yet to declare Santana and Vargas shining beacons of success with that philosophy.  We got a ways to go on that one.

[bird]

I agree that we shouldn't use Aaron Hicks as an example not to bring up young players.  The problem with Aaron Hicks is looking more like a Aaron HIcks problem and not a being brought up too young.

Hicks serves as an example of why Ryan should, this time around, have a "back-up plan." This time around, he has no excuses. He has one other hole to fill of higher priority ( a #2-3 starter) so he has cash available should he want to resort to the FA market. And this time around, unlike even last year, he has relatively valuable trade chips. Bring in a veteran, and if Hicks, Rosario, or Schaefer stun us with a bout of excellence, well, super.

[Lakeside]

I agree that we shouldn't use Aaron Hicks as an example not to bring up young players.  The problem with Aaron Hicks is looking more like a Aaron HIcks problem and not a being brought up too young.

Agree!

[Thrylos]

Rosario is not ready for MLB. He needs to prove he can hit AA, AAA, or even AFL pitching first. He hasn't posted an OPS significantly north of .750 since the first half of 2013.

 

Sub "Rosario" with "Buxton" and let me know how you feel...

[DocBauer]

I will be angry if the Twins sign Materson, which keeps May and Meyer in AAA all season.  Materson's velocity has dropped significantly to the point that he barely cracks 90 on his fastball.  DO we REALLY need a right handed version of Milone?  A junkballer?  I just don't see the logic of this.  May and Meyer will BOTH be better pitchers then Materson, Nolasco and Gibson.  This is utter stupidity signing this guy.  If the Indians want nothing to do with him, you can bet he's damaged goods.

 

I am going to disagree here. Conjecture is a bad knee lead to a loss in velocity and a poor season.

 

In his last 3 seasons in Cleveland, 2 good and 1 not so good, he pitched a combined 96 GS, 615 IP, 512 SO's vs 229 which is better than a 2-1 ratio. That is not a junk balling 4th or 5th SP.

[DocBauer]

Agreed!

 

Can we please temper hopes and dreams with just a small dose of reality? Sano hasn't played a game above AA and missed the entire past season. Buxton got in to ONE game at AA and missed a huge portion of the season overall. Rosario served a 50 games suspension, started behind the 8 ball, and had an uneven season to say the least.

 

Sano and Buxton are supreme talents, and Berrios a legit top 10 team prospect with loads of ability. And every single prospect is different than every other single prospect in regard to developmental time. But a nice AFL to work on his game, develop his game, and remind us all why he is a top prospect doesn't mark Rosario as a starting OF out of ST. Yes, it would be cool if it happened, but are you really going to bank on it? And after missing a whole season Sano will be ready a month or two in, if not right away, dusting away a year of failed opportunity as if it were 1st base dirt on a pick off play? And Buxton will use his partial high A season, half a game at AA and solid, limited AFL to vault to the starting CF job for the Twins by mid-season just because?

 

We need options. You keep Plouffe because he's solid to good and you need him for now. You really need to find someone to help with CF. And you need someone to help in LF because...well because of LF. The best options are clearly Rasmus and Rios. Rasmus can play CF, should be quite good in LF. Rios is older, has played a little CF, but is a corner OF. Rasmus might cost more being younger, Rios might be had on a 1 year deal. Rios is also RH, which plays to TF and the lineup perhaps a bit better than Rasmus's LH bat. Honestly, I'm OK with either one. They both bring value, but Rasmus will almost certainly cost more, though I wonder if he's looking for a multi year deal, or a make good 1 year offer. I just hope the Twins are pro-active to make a move.

[KGB]

Hicks serves as an example of why Ryan should, this time around, have a "back-up plan." This time around, he has no excuses. He has one other hole to fill of higher priority ( a #2-3 starter) so he has cash available should he want to resort to the FA market. And this time around, unlike even last year, he has relatively valuable trade chips. Bring in a veteran, and if Hicks, Rosario, or Schaefer stun us with a bout of excellence, well, super.

 

I hope Ryan has a backup plan for the outfield, he hasn't had one for the last 2 years.  I'm not against signing a player, but I think we need to be more agressive in bringing up players.  Keeping players like Meyers in the minors when he is a top prospect and 25 years old doesn't make a lot of sense,  The goal shouldn't be to make him a all-star at AAA, we need to see what kind of player he is in the majors. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sub "Rosario" with "Buxton" and let me know how you feel...

The same applies to Buxton though his circumstances are much different in that he lost a season to injury and hardly played at all.

[Riverbrian]

It's hard to argue a counterfactual, especially when you agree with the premise. i'm not opposed to rushing some kids, but many people are recommending that become the default way of filling positions. I'm not comfortable with that.

 

And I'm certainly not ready yet to declare Santana and Vargas shining beacons of success with that philosophy. We got a ways to go on that one.

Based on 2014... The Twins have some talented offensive players... If everything goes right... We have very little to worry about. However... When was the last time everything went right? 1965?

 

I agree with Levi... I will add... That I understand the desire to bring up our young stars. I can't wait to see them myself. The anticipation is killing me.

 

What I don't understand is the desire to bring them up with no safety net... I don't understand... The wish of some... To not sign talent over fear of blocking them.

 

You can't BLOCK them... Players get hurt all the time... Someone is gonna suck... If Rosario is performing in Rochester... Or Buxton or Sano... You can't block them... Unless we are winning and everything goes right. Which hasn't happened since? 1947? And if everything goes right. Well... Block away... Who cares... We are playoff bound!!!

 

Sano... Buxton... Rosario are safety nets... Some want to cut our safety nets to play the safety nets with no safety net. I can't support that.

[bird]

I hope Ryan has a backup plan for the outfield, he hasn't had one for the last 2 years.  I'm not against signing a player, but I think we need to be more agressive in bringing up players.  Keeping players like Meyers in the minors when he is a top prospect and 25 years old doesn't make a lot of sense,  The goal shouldn't be to make him a all-star at AAA, we need to see what kind of player he is in the majors. 

Again, there are field people in the organization that probably believe that Meyer would have been annihilated as a MLB starter last year. Why would anyone think the Twins had a goal of making him a AAA All-Star? It just doesn't make a lick of sense to think Meyer wasn't promoted for any other reason than that they disagree with you about how ready he was.

[jay]

I'm a bit surprised there isn't more support for Rios.  He's another high ceiling guy just like Masterson with WAR > 3 in six of the last nine seasons (something Masterson has only done twice in his career).

 

He had a bum ankle and then a thumb injury holding him back in 2014.  Isn't there an opportunity to find good value with a bounceback in 2015?  Especially at a projected 1/$7M?

[TheLeviathan]

What I don't understand is the desire to bring them up with no safety net... I don't understand... The wish of some... To not sign talent over fear of blocking them.

 

+100

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm a bit surprised there isn't more support for Rios.  He's another high ceiling guy just like Masterson with WAR > 3 in six of the last nine seasons (something Masterson has only done twice in his career).

Last 9 seasons?  Not sure if his age 25-27 seasons (particularly the good defense components) are particularly relevant now, entering his age 34 season.  He's 3 for his last 6 in terms of 3+ fWAR, and only 2 for his last 6 in bWAR.  According to Rbat at B-Ref, Rios has only twice been an above average hitter in the past 6 seasons.  And both B-Ref and Fangraphs have him as a slightly below-average defensive RF the past 2 seasons (even if "slightly below average" is an upgrade for the Twins OF defense ).

 

By comparison, Masterson only has 5 seasons as a full-time starter, so only two 3+ WAR seasons isn't  that much different than Rios' recent record.  (And, of course, Masterson is 4 years younger.)

 

Not that the debate should be Masterson vs. Rios.  Since 2009, when Rasmus joined the league, he has beaten Rios in WAR roughly 13 to 9 (despite Rasmus playing CF the entire time, and Rios playing in more games).

 

Also, looking ahead, in the event of a bounceback 2015 season and lack of a deadline flip, who would be worth a qualifying offer for 2016?  Masterson and Rasmus, almost certainly.  Rios?  Probably not.

[laloesch]

Man, I keep having thoughts of that Red Sox package of Lester, Masterson, Crisp, Lowrie with Bowden as a throw-in for Santana. But we wanted Ellsbury. Or so the rumors flew waaaaay back when.

 

I'm thinking the Twins may play it slow in the free agent marketplace, as their needs do run more towards a one-year contract, unless the starter of their dreams at a workable 2-3 year price leaps in front of their headlights. 

 

Most players will be pushing for those multi-year deals, especially those over 34 or so for sure. But there are only so many roster spots and so much money, so we might find someone still kicking tires after everyone's card is full the closer the Twins get to spring training...but hopefully sooner.

 

They need a bat who can play the outfield, and/or backup somewhere else. We need a starter who will start games. We might be looking for some cheaper bullpen arms if we don't spend money on Duensing and Swarzak again. And a backup catcher would be great if we want Pinto to start fulltime in Rochester.

 

We have the centerfield mess of Hicks, Rosario, Scheafer, Buxton if he fires up spring training, or can always move Santana back out there if Eddie and Aaron go to Rochester, and we hope there is no second season slump (as well as one for Vargas).

 

Those deals were never TRUELY on the table In my opinion.  It was typical Red Sox vs. Yankees BS / feuding going between Epstein versus Steinbrenner.   In some ways it was clear tampering so that neither franchise got Santana.  Selig should have stepped in and told them to knock it off or make a clear offer.

 

Anyways, if the Red Sox had offered Lester and Materson plus one prospect I'd have jumped on it.  The Yankees offer of Hughes and Ian Kennedy plus one other (Twins also wanted Joba) would have been good as well.  And from what I understand the Dodgers were also in on it, offering two of their top prospects from James Loney, Clayton Kershaw and Jonathan Broxton.   However, they eventually backed off because they were worried about the cost of signing Santana to an extension.  (funny how they have unlimited money now).

 

In my opinion the Pohlads should have fired Smith on the spot after that trade.  He should have also put Ryan on notice (who was then scouting but also consulting with and approving Smith's moves).  The fact that we walked away with basically walked Gomez and a bunch of junk is brutal and inexcusable.  But at this point it's water under the bridge.

 

Your right, the centerfield is truly a mess.  Santana, Hicks, Rosario, Schafer and Arcia are all options I guess.   But I hope they figure something out there as it could be a long season of sloppy play in the outfield.

Edited November 18, 2014 by laloesch

[DJL44]

Doesn't it complicate the ability to sign a free agent pitcher if you don't have a pitching coach?