Article: Who's The Next Phil Hughes?

[Nick Nelson]

With free agency now officially underway, there will be considerable interest in Terry Ryan's approach to addressing his team's starting pitching woes.

 

If you're hoping see him aggressively pursue one of the top names on the market, you're likely to be disappointed. But there's a good chance the Twins will add at least one free agent arm, and as the Phil Hughes signing demonstrated last year, landing a pitcher with a mid-level contract can pay major dividends if done smartly.Some might be frustrated by the idea that ace types like Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields will probably not be on Ryan's radar. But this is understandable for a couple reasons. For one thing, there's already some congestion in the rotation with seven starters currently in line to vie for five spots. Secondly, there's the whole rebuilding thing. Does it make sense to commit $100-plus million over five-plus years when the roster is in such a state of flux?

 

Given their present circumstances, it makes more sense for the Twins to seek a pitcher who carries less risk and commitment. That doesn't mean they can't bring in some considerable upside.

 

When the Twins signed Hughes about a year ago, I liked the move quite a bit for three principal reasons:

 

1) He was young, with success in his past.

2) He had good peripherals.

3) He had been pitching under unfavorable circumstances.

 

Hughes was coming off a season in which he'd gone 4-14 with a 5.19 ERA for the Yankees, enabling the Twins to get him at a bargain price of $8 million per year, but those three factors made him a good bet to rebound and improve with a change of scenery. I don't think anyone could have anticipated his turnaround to be quite so drastic, but the success of this signing was hardly random.

 

With that in mind, I thought it would be interesting to gauge this year's free agent pitching market and identify some guys in similar situations, with depressed value but deeper potential. The Twins have no need for another back-end starter -- they have plenty of those already -- so the focus should be on finding a pitcher who offers at least a realistic chance of being more than that, without paying a premium or forfeiting a draft pick.

 

Here are a few names worth keeping an eye on:

 

Justin Masterson - RHP, 29 years old

 

Masterson is the starter we suggested signing in our blueprint for the Offseason Handbook. In 2013, he was an All-Star, posting a 3.45 ERA over 193 innings for the Indians; in 2014, he was a mess, registering a 5.88 mark in 128 frames between Cleveland and St. Louis. The Cardinals demoted him to the bullpen in September and left him off their playoff roster.

 

Despite the brutal results this year, Masterson did two important things quite well: missing bats (19.6 K%) and getting grounders (58.2 GB%). His .339 BABIP is bound to come back to Earth and if the Twins could bring his walks under control after he posted a career-high 4.8 BB/9 rate, there's a good shot he could return to his previous form. He may be seeking a one-year make-good deal, which would be ideal for the Twins since they still have multi-year commitments to Hughes and Ricky Nolasco, and want to maintain flexibility for incoming prospects.

 

Brett Anderson - LHP, 26 years old

 

He's consistently been very good when healthy, but he has also been consistently unhealthy. The Rockies took a gamble on his talent last offseason by trading with Oakland to bring him in, and the southpaw was great when on the mound, posting a sterling 2.91 ERA in eight starts... but, he only made eight starts.

 

This time it was a bulging disc in his back that derailed Anderson, but he's expected to be ready for spring training and he's still extremely young by free agent standards. He seems like a good fit for the Twins, who could afford to be patient and endure setbacks because of their depth and relatively low expectations.

 

Chad Billingsley - RHP, 30 years old

 

Billingsley is coming off back-to-back lost seasons -- he threw a total of 12 innings in 2013 and never made it to a big-league mound in 2014. His right arm has gone through some major turmoil; first Tommy John, then surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in the same elbow. He's probably the toughest guy to trust on this list, but he might come on a non-guaranteed minor-league deal and the upside is there. Prior to 2013, he had a 3.66 career ERA, and had made 25 or more starts in five straight seasons.

 

Josh Johnson - RHP, 30 years old

 

Like Billingsley, Johnson has had a really rough go of it the last two years. In 2013, he made only 16 starts (with a 6.20 ERA) while battling elbow soreness. He underwent offseason surgery to remove bone spurs from the elbow, but that did little good as he ended up needing Tommy John surgery early in the 2014 campaign. When healthy, he's got plenty of juice in his arm, with the ability to dial it up into the mid-90s and blow away opposing hitters.

 

Franklin Morales - LHP, 28 years old

 

Morales has long been reputed for his electric stuff, but the numbers have rarely lined up. The Venezuelan has gone from Colorado to Boston and back to Colorado, frustrating coaches with his inconsistency and shaky command. But the ability is there. He's still only 28 and was at one point viewed as one of the best prospects in the game (Baseball America ranked him No. 8 overall in 2008).

 

Carlos Villanueva - RHP, 30 years old

 

The right-hander is an enigma. During stints with the Brewers, Blue Jays and Cubs, he has constantly bounced back and forth between the rotation and bullpen, failing to establish himself despite solid secondary numbers buoyed by good control and a quality K-rate. It'd be hard to rely on Villanueva as a full-time starter at this point, but he's definitely worth a look; his 175-to-59 K/BB ratio in Chicago over the past two seasons is impressive and helps explain the disparity between a 4.27 ERA and 3.59 FIP.

 

Brandon Morrow - RHP, 30 years old

 

Things were looking bright for Morrow back in 2011. As a 26-year-old, he made a career-high 30 starts for the Blue Jays and led the league with a 10.2 K/9 rate. Since then, durability has unfortunately been a huge issue for him, as his games-started totals have dropped from 30 to 21 to 10 to six. In 2014 he was limited to 33 innings by a finger injury. Some believe his future may be as a reliever, where he could stay healthier and maximize his arsenal, but I think he's worth a gamble and he might like another opportunity to start.

 

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[USAFChief]

If there's already "some congestion in the rotation," why does it make sense to bring in a pitchers from this list, but not one from the expensive list?

 

Money aside, It would seem if there's room for Masterson, there's room for Lester.

[DJL44]

Not sure if an injured pitcher has the same narrative as Phil Hughes.

 

How about a Francisco Liriano mention?

[Thegrin]

Any Rockies player deserves a long look.  Playing there is a pitcher's nightmare.

[drock2190]

Billingsley would be a good pickup. He's had a run of bad luck but before he was a workhorse. Kind of reminds me of Peavy when he was injured practically every season awhile back. 

 

Morrow would be a good bullpen arm, but hes probably looking to be a starter.

[bird]

If there's already "some congestion in the rotation," why does it make sense to bring in a pitchers from this list, but not one from the expensive list?

 

Money aside, It would seem if there's room for Masterson, there's room for Lester.

We'd hear few complaints if they chased one of the big three in FA, but it's not likely. I think the key thing is "years" rather than "dollars." Even the Yankees are saying they don't have the financial appetite for those guys after having made a half-billion in commitments last year despite previously being saddled with the bad contracts of ARod, Sabbathia, Texeira and others. I for one will excuse the Twins from committing to a five year contract with Lester, as long as they make a good faith effort to sign or trade for at least one guy who could potentially right himself and become a front line starter if the stars align like they did with Hughes.

[brvama]

Don't know a lot about any except Masterson, and he along with Morrow are the only ones I'd look towards. I like Masterson ground ball efficiency and we are short LHPs so that brings Morrow into play. Personally, I'd like TR to make a play for Lester or Scherzer b/c I think it would fit long-term. But in reality, outside of Masterson/Morrow I'd pass.

[beckmt]

Like most of the names on this list.  Would be worth a look for the right price.  Can never have enough starting pitching.  Would not mind more than one.  No Masterson, but the rest might be worth a look.

[Nick Nelson]

If there's already "some congestion in the rotation," why does it make sense to bring in a pitchers from this list, but not one from the expensive list?

 

Money aside, It would seem if there's room for Masterson, there's room for Lester.

 

Masterson would require probably a one-year commitment. Lester would require at least five. Pretty much as simple as that. I think they should be focused on flexibility right now, especially with Hughes & Nolasco both under contract for 2016.

 

 

Not sure if an injured pitcher has the same narrative as Phil Hughes.

 

How about a Francisco Liriano mention?

 

It's not exactly the same, no. But the idea is buying low on a big talent due to his circumstances.  Those are the signings that carry little risk but can make you look very smart. And I think the Twins can appeal to those free agents, because this rotation should be wide open.

 

As for Liriano, they'd have to give up a draft pick to sign him, so he really doesn't fit the parameters. I still wouldn't be opposed to giving him a look, but it ain't gonna happen.

[Secondary User]

Any Rockies player deserves a long look.  Playing there is a pitcher's nightmare.

 

And it's not like Fenway is a pitcher's haven either.

[twinsguy14]

Lester is not coming here!  Price is not coming here! Scherzer is not coming here!  In what world would either of these three come to a team that may not be competetive for three years?  They want the premium bucks (won't get it here and shouldn't) and want to be on a team with a chance to win now (our future is unknown).  I think its heathy for all fans who are holding on to this thought to let it go.  Put the bat down and walk away!  This team is not going to build for the long haul by bringing in one 152 mil pitcher.  We need more pieces and young pieces so we can once again be good for a decade and not have a chance to be competetive for a couple years. 

[USAFChief]

Masterson would require probably a one-year commitment. Lester would require at least five. Pretty much as simple as that. I think they should be focused on flexibility right now, especially with Hughes & Nolasco both under contract for 2016.

 

OK. The wording of the proposal left me confused.

[DaveW]

I have been wanting josh Johnson to come home for several years now, I could see this being that year.

[stringer bell]

I've commented on other threads that I would like to see the Twins pursue Masterson. He's been better more recently than most of the rest listed. Most of the other names listed are intriguing as well. Getting a lefty would be nice, although I haven't totally given up on Tommy Milone.

[Riverbrian]

Masterson and Anderson would be my choices ... And... And... They both have good Minnesota names.

[gunnarthor]

I've been a big advocate for Masterson and hope they pursue him like they did Hughes. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'd prefer more likely to be good over offers flexibility.....but I'd prefer flexibility over signing likely to be bad for 3 years.....so I guess this list is ok for second best option. Maybe someday we'll have reason to believe they take the first, best option.

 

There are a lot of questions about Meyer, I'd prefer they work hard to get those answered this year, so they have a better plan.....but I suspect he'll be in AAA, and they'll sign a guy like this and sign Hunter. And the OF defense will continue to be the worst in baseball, and whomever they sign will give up more OF hits (or XB) than they should.

[birddog]

Tough to get too excited about any of those guys taking us to the promised land unless we can somehow keep their glass bodies from breaking. I foresee a trade with the Reds for Tony Cingrani or Mariners for Taijan Walker. (Well, maybe I'm just having a great dream.) I know it would take a lot to pry these young arms from their teams, but I'm hoping TR can turn some of his trade magic into moves that give us instant credibility--and prevent Molitor from aging like Gardy did these past 4 years. I like the rehiring of Bruno as hitting coach, but his pitching coach will undoubtedly determine how long the 90+ loss seasons continue.

[jharaldson]

Looking at this list makes me confused why Buehrle isn't more of a target of this team.  I created a leaderboard at fangraphs with all the players above and Buehrle and if you look at the 1, 3, and 5 year timeframes Buehrle is better than each of the pitchers listed.  The Twins failed to take advantage of similar salary dump offerings 2 years ago when Santana and Haren were available so I hope they turn that around now.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=2038,8223,5842,4567,5088,4138,9346,225&sort=19,d

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Not real excited by any of these guys. Masterson worth a shot if you can get him for say 35-40 mill for 3 years.

[tobi0040]

I am totally against the high upside, 1 year make good contract.  I don't think it makes any sense for where the Twins are as a franchise.

 

Two things will happen, I think neither is really a good thing for us:

 

Option 1 - The guy pitches well and stays healthy. Let's say Masterson gets back to 190 IP 3.45 ERA guy next year.  We add a few wins in a year in which we are not competitive.  Then what?  Now he wants a 4-5 year deal at $15-17M a year (what he was seeking last year from the Indians).  Would we even want to do that?  I would not.  He would be a 30 year old, inconsistent pitcher, career ERA over 4.00 and in the last seven years, he has had an ERA at 4.50 or higher in four of those years (2009, 2010, 2012, and 2014).  What about Brett Anderson?  In the last four years the most innings he has pitched was 82.  If he stays healthy and somehow pitches 200 IP, are we going to extend the guy?  Yikes.  Best case they are flipped at the deadline, but that does not warrant taking reps from young players to me.

 

Option 2 - the guy pitches poorly or does not stay healthy.  Now you have taken innings away from Meyer, May, etc. and perpetuated the awful pitching that we have seen over the last four years.

 

The risk/reward does not make sense to me.  I think if we are giving up innings from a future rotation starter it has to be because the player has a very good chance to improve our team.  When I look at the FA market, I only see four of those guys.  We will not sign one of the top three.  The guy I keep coming back to is Ervin Santana.  I think he is signed for about 3-45 with an option (plus a pick).  He becomes our second best pitcher IMO and he is off the books when our young talented guys start hitting arbitration/free agency.

Edited November 10, 2014 by tobi0040

[Nick Nelson]

I am totally against the high upside, 1 year make good contract.  I don't think it makes any sense for where the Twins are as a franchise.

 

There are two nice things that can come out of it: 1) Pitcher has a good year and entices needy teams at the trade deadline. The Cubs turned Scott Feldman into Jake Arrieta. 2) Pitcher has a good year, decides he likes it here and re-signs.

 

I actually think it makes perfect sense for where the Twins are as a franchise.

[Rosterman]

When you start looking at unhealthy pitchers, you start looking at Pelfrey-ish starters to bring into camp. Why not add Johan Santana to the list.

 

Instead you look at decent starters that just had a bad year with a contending team, or a starter that had bad support in their own ballpark. And you must scout them to see beyond their 5-16 record and 5.00 ERA.

 

That's finding a diamond-in-the-rough to take a chance on, and the Twins did take a chance on Hughes, for $8 million.

 

Milone was another guy they took a chance on, and may take an additional chance that he WAS injured last year, and at a cost of some $3 million (and Sam Fuld).

 

I really don't see any names leaping out at me that other teams will pass on, or not take as big of a gamble on as the Twins did with Hughes (three years, most would give him one).

[tobi0040]

There are two nice things that can come out of it: 1) Pitcher has a good year and entices needy teams at the trade deadline. The Cubs turned Scott Feldman into Jake Arrieta. 2) Pitcher has a good year, decides he likes it here and re-signs.

 

I actually think it makes perfect sense for where the Twins are as a franchise.

 

Masterson has had two good years and two awful years in the last four. If he has a good year next year, is that the type of guy we want to hand a four year deal around $17M?  He was seeking a multi-year deal for $17M a year six months ago.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10645272/justin-masterson-cleveland-indians-break-contract-talks

 

Flipping him is the only real positive here to me.  But I want to give time to guys that are part of the future. We should have been doing this in 2012, 2013, etc. 

 

Big picture, the Twins seem to have money each year tied up in short term, low upside deals like this.  $11M for Pelfrey and Correia last year for example.  If we give Masterson a 1 year deal for $10M....we will have $16M next year tied up in lottery type pitchers (Masterson and Pelfrey). Why not just sign a good pitcher for that amount? 

 

Is a 3-4 year deal for Ervin Santana at $15M a year any more risky than $16M on one year deals to guys like Pelfrey and Masterson when you do it every year? 

Edited November 10, 2014 by tobi0040

[Brandon]

I like the other option better....TRADE for a starting pitcher.  There are a lot of them available this winter cause a lot of them will be free agents next year. Next year will be the better year to sign a free agent pitcher if we need one.

 

Also this year's Phil Hughes is Nolasco....sort of,  I expect he'll rebound back to career norms.

[Nick Nelson]

Big picture, the Twins seem to have money each year tied up in short term, low upside deals like this.  $11M for Pelfrey and Correia last year for example. 

 

These are not low-upside deals. Each pitcher listed (with the exception of Morales I guess) has shown the ability to pitch like a front-of-rotation guy in recent years. That's why they're different from Pelfrey and Correia.

 

Also, it's easy to say "Let's go get Ervin Santana" but is he really going to want to pitch here? You've got to be realistic about the other side of this thing. Pitchers with depressed value will view Minnesota as a more attractive landing spot because the barrier of entry for the rotation is low.

[iTwins]

If we're shopping for free agent arms, I'd rather go for that "upper tier" talent. I'm not saying chase Scherzer, Lester and Shields, but if we're going to upgrade the rotation, let's actually UPGRADE it. I'd be interested in Liriano or Santana - someone to be a solid #2 behind Phil Hughes.

 

I'd be nice to cash in on a high upside guy taking off like Hughes, but the downside is, if he doesn't become the next Phil Hughes and is merely OK, you clog your rotation with more average arms. I'd go big (for the Twins) and grab a top talent or simply let the youth fill in the rotation next year. No more bridge deals.

 

Of the list Nick provided - I'd kick the tires on Brett Anderson. He has youth and relative low costs in his favor and when healthy, he's a quality pitcher. (Healthy is a tough thing for him to be, however).

[tobi0040]

These are not low-upside deals. Each pitcher listed (with the exception of Morales I guess) has shown the ability to pitch like a front-of-rotation guy in recent years. That's why they're different from Pelfrey and Correia.

 

Also, it's easy to say "Let's go get Ervin Santana" but is he really going to want to pitch here? You've got to be realistic about the other side of this thing. Pitchers with depressed value will view Minnesota as a more attractive landing spot because the barrier of entry for the rotation is low.

 

If you approach this from the standpoint that even if they pitch well here, their track record is not one that would be a good long term commitment.....then they are low upside deals.  Maybe you don't see it that way. 

 

But then let me ask you this.  Let's say we sign Brett Anderson to a 1 year deal and he pitches 200 innings with a 3.20 ERA and strikes out a ton of guys.  He loves Minnesota and wants a new contract.  How much would you be willing to go, dollars and years?   Again, the max he has pitched over the last four years is 82 innings.  

 

Or what would you give Masterson after a good year?  Would you give him a 3-4 year deal at $15-17M he thinks he is worth?  We are talking about a very inconsistent 30 year old with a career ERA over 4.00.

Edited November 10, 2014 by tobi0040

[stringer bell]

Not real excited by any of these guys. Masterson worth a shot if you can get him for say 35-40 mill for 3 years.

Most are predicting a one-year deal for Masterson to rebuild his value.  If the Twins are convinced they are going to get the "good Masterson", I thought maybe they could have a team option at a relatively higher number (maybe $13M). 

[toosweet64]

I feel like there's an easy way to clear up the ''pitching congestion'': Trade Nolasco to the Dodgers for Ethier or Crawford (the Dodgers pick up a good part of the contract) and sign Anderson to a 1 year deal for 7-8 million w/ a mutual option.