Article: Twins Organizational Depth Chart: First Base

[Seth Stohs]

After what seems like such a long delay, the World Series begins with Game 1 tonight. When the Series is complete, players that are eligible will become free agents and the offseason will begin. I thought it would be good to take a look at the Twins by position to find their areas of organizational strength or weakness. Today, we start with the first basemen.Major Leagues

 

Joe Mauer is signed through the 2018 season. The six-time All-Star, five-time Silver Slugger, three-time Gold Glove winner and former MVP had a disappointing season in his initial year at first base. His defense improved through the season. It was his offense that was down. The career .319/.401/.459 (.860) hitter hit just .277/.361/.371 (.732) with 27 doubles and four home runs. Regardless of anyone’s thoughts, he will be the team’s first baseman for most games over the next four seasons

 

Kennys Vargas came up straight from AA after the July trade deadline and was impressive. In 97 games in New Britain, he hit .281/.360/.472 (.832) with 17 doubles and 17 home runs. In two months with the Twins, he hit .274/.316/.456 (.772) with 10 doubles and nine homers. He really is a DH, but he can play some first base to spell Mauer.

 

Chris Parmelee played some in the outfield and quite a bit at first base in 2014. After 32 games in Rochester, he was added back to the Twins 40-man roster and called up. In 87 games with the Twins, he hit .256/.307/.384 (.691) with 11 doubles and seven homers. He could stay on the 40-man roster this offseason and compete for a utility job next spring.

 

Minor Leagues

 

Chris Colabello was the co-Player of the Month in the American League in April, but things went south from there and he spent time in AAA. He remains on the team’s 40-man roster because he is a big, powerful man. If he stays on the 40-man roster, he could be an option for a bench role or he could head back to Rochester where he was the International League’s MVP and Rookie of the Year in 2013.

 

Max Kepler is also on the 40-man roster and currently playing in the Florida State League. He got most of his playing time in 2014 in the three outfield positions, but also played a dozen games at first base. His youth and versatility, along with immense power potential, will likely keep him on the 40-man roster to start 2015.

 

Mike Gonzales split his 2014 season between Ft. Myers and New Britain. Combined, he hit .271/.348/.439 (.787) with 29 doubles and 12 home runs. Like Vargas, Gonzales is a big man. He is listed at 6-6 and 265 pounds. The Twins ninth round pick in 2008 out of junior college, he can become a free agent following the World Series.

 

Dalton Hicks was the Twins 17^th round pick in 2012 out of Central Florida. At 6-5 and 250 pounds, he fits the mold with several other first basemen in the system. He spent his age-24 season in Ft. Myers where he hit .262/.344/.407 (.751) with 24 doubles, 11 home runs and 76 RBI.

 

Chad Christensen was the primary first baseman in his home town of Cedar Rapids in 2014. After four years at the University of Nebraska, Christensen was the Twins 25^th round pick in 2013. Christensen does not fit the mold of hulking first basemen you’ve seen above. He is 6-3, 210 pounds and a tremendous athlete who can play all over the field, including centerfield if necessary. He hit .272/.339/.404 (.744) with 24 doubles, seven triples, nine home runs, and 73 RBI. He also was 30 for 35 on stolen base attempts.

 

Bryan Haar split the season between Cedar Rapids and FT. Myers. He was the 34^th round pick in 2012 out of the University of San Diego. In 108 games with the Kernels, he hit .267/.319/.446 (.765) with 20 doubles, five triples and 14 homers. He moved up to the Miracle and played in just 10 games. He played the majority of his games at third base but also got into 19 games at first base.

 

At Elizabethton this summer, Tyler Kuresa played 39 games at first base. The Twins actually drafted him out of his high school in the 11^th round of the 2010 draft, but he went to college. He was drafted in the 14^th round by the Braves in 2013 but again went back to college. Following his senior season, he was selected by the Twins in the 16^th round in 2014. He debuted by hitting .298/.381/.478 (.859) with 14 doubles and five home runs in 46 games for the E-Twins.

 

Trey Vavra, the Twins 33^rd round pick in 2014 out of Florida Southern, played 27 of his 50 games in Elizabethton at first base. Overall, he hit .319/.392/.454 (.846) with 20 doubles, a triple and a home run.

 

Although he is a catcher, Joel Polanco played a majority of his games at first base. As a 21-year-old in 2014, he hit .248/.296/.350 (.646) with six doubles and two homers in the GCL.

 

Jack Barrie is an 18-year old from Australia who made his debut in the organization in 2014. He hit .205/.284/.233 (.517) in the GCL with two doubles. Like others above, he is a big lad. He is listed at 6-4 and 250 pounds already. He will require patience, but his power potential is exciting.

 

Lewin Diaz was a million-dollar signing in 2013 from the Dominican Republic. The 17-year-old is another big guy with power potential. There was talk that he might be able to play some outfield, but in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League, he played just first base. In 43 games, he hit .257/.385/.451 (.836) with 13 doubles and five home runs. He should debut in the States in 2015, likely in the GCL.

 

SUMMARY

 

Joe Mauer will be the primary first baseman, most likely, over the next four years. Kennys Vargas will have to fight a sophomore slump, but he certainly has all the power from both sides of the plate that you would want, especially since he will primarily be a DH.

 

After that, Lewin Diaz is probably the player with the most upside in the organization. That said, players like Miguel Sano and Travis Harrison could also be looked at as guys who could move to first base if, or when, needed.

 

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[davidc3915]

I'm probably in the minority, but I think we get a bounce back season from Mauer this year.  He will never produce the power that a first baseman traditionally provides, but I suspect we get slash lines closer to his norms.  If so, and the Twins inch toward .500, hey, he could be a Comeback Player of the Year candidate!

[IndyTwinsFan]

That would certainly be nice to see.

[h2oface]

I have no expectations for Joe Mauer anymore. I thought last year would bring out the very best he has to offer, and that he would evolve like a 30 something large strong athletic 6'5" 240 lb. man and develop the power to add 10-15 feet of travel to balls hit with that "perfect stroke".  If he doesn't, he will be an expensive liability at first base, and make us all lament the choice of giving up on Morneau for Joe to take the position.  With Vargas ready to take some scary starts at first, and Sano maybe the firstbaseman of the future..... it will be interesting to see whether Joe earns his spot in the Hall of Fame, or fizzles and enjoys his family with all the comforts that booty he is under contract to receive can bring, regardless of how he performs.

[Lakeside]

I expect Mauer to have a bounce back year.  While not a homerun hitter. . . .320 BA with 40 doubles would look pretty good in the Twins #2 or #3 hole. 

 

I would guess that the Twins are looking at this make-up for 2015 as they enter the off-season:

 

MLB-Mauer, Vargas

Chattanooga - Kepler, Hicks

Ft. Myers - Christianson, Haar

Cedar Rapids - Kuresa, Vavra

Elizabethton and/or Gulf Coast - Barry, Diaz

 

I'm of the opinion that Collabello is gone from the organization, can we afford to keep Parmelee on the 40-man with all those that are eligble?  I expect Collabello, Gonzalez, and Parmelee to be released with the idea that one may sign as a minor league free agent back with Rochester.

[lightfoot789]

AB Walker was a 1st Team and 2nd Team All American at 1st Base in College.  Perfect Game listed him as the 2nd best defender at the position during his sophomore season.  He can do the splits to the ground and has a 30+ inch vertical.  I prefer him in the OF for now, but like Sano and Harrison he provides an option down the road @ 6'5 225 lbs..

[Seth Stohs]

Walker is certainly another name that fits into the "He could also play there" discussion. 

 

Mauer will be fine. I mean, I'm not sure if people think that a guy who caught in the big leagues for the majority of 10 years is going to keep hitting as Mauer did when he was 30 and under... but a nice .300/.380/.450 would be alright. Let's not forget the concussion either. 

[adjacent]

I expect Mauer to have a bounce back year.  While not a homerun hitter. . . .320 BA with 40 doubles would look pretty good in the Twins #2 or #3 hole. 

 

I would guess that the Twins are looking at this make-up for 2015 as they enter the off-season:

 

MLB-Mauer, Vargas

Chattanooga - Kepler, Hicks

Ft. Myers - Christianson, Haar

Cedar Rapids - Kuresa, Vavra

Elizabethton and/or Gulf Coast - Barry, Diaz

 

I'm of the opinion that Collabello is gone from the organization, can we afford to keep Parmelee on the 40-man with all those that are eligble?  I expect Collabello, Gonzalez, and Parmelee to be released with the idea that one may sign as a minor league free agent back with Rochester.

You forgot Rochester, I think. You still can put Colabello there.

[dxpavelka]

Always amazed at fans that think that since Mauer moved to first base he's suddenly going to become something he's never been and most likely never will be--a power hitter.  Why would you expect a guy who has only hit more than 13 home runs once in eleven years to hit 30 big flies?  It's not going to happen and that's not the reason he was moved to first base.  He was moved to first base to avoid an even steeper decline in his productivity than he experienced in 2014.  And, yes, it is possible, maybe even likely that 2014 was just a blip on the radar screen and for the next few years he reverts to being a .300 plus hitter with an .850 OPS, 15 home runs, 40 doubles and 85-90 runs scored and RBI.  But he is NEVER going to be a monster power hitter.  Stop fooling yourselves.

[h2oface]

...... Why would you expect a guy who has only hit more than 13 home runs once in eleven years to hit 30 big flies?  .....

Because a player rededicates himself to the game and the change of position after an injury, and prepares and adds strength and weight in the off season to evolve and just hit the ball 10 to 15 feet further with that "perfect swing".  Boys become men in their thirties, and many hall of famers have developed the most power in their thirties.  Cuddyer has hit better in his thirties than he ever did in his 20's (I realize that is not a great example, but it is true ).  Mauer has once been a power hitter with 28 dingers.  Mauer is a great player, a rare great player that someone like me believes can evolve.  He has it in him.  And then there is the comparative ease and far less body punishing position in the field, and supposedly far more games played per season that it allows..... and there you have the hope for the evolution of the 6'5" singles/doubles hitter into a power hitting first baseman. Or......... just hit the ball 10-15 feet further on the fly, and call it what you may.

[Rosterman]

Colabello will be cut from the 40-man before November roster is finalized. He just might resign as a free agent with the Twins. He has hit well at AAA. Parmelee remains on the 40-man until the Twins sign a free agent, any free agent. Then he could be expendable. If Colabello doesn't stay as a minors free agent, the Twins need to find someone for Rochester.

 

Gonzales is interesting. Not quite ready for AAA. Not a need on the 40-man. Would he resign and start at AA. That would solve some problems.

 

The Twins have to make a decision on what to do with Kepler, who has to come to the team in 2016, play a reserve role in 2017, and stay forever after that...as the new first baseman, perhaps? Shows the pain of adding players to the 40-man when they still need a lot of seasoning. Because of the monies tied up in him, the Twins fear losing him. They can't remove him from the 40-man unless he would really, really tank at High-A ball.

 

Of course, the Twins have Sano. Or Plouffe pushed over. They really have no solid reserve if they lose Parmelee (who can't be optioned out and would probably go free agent if given the opportunity). If they would sign someone like Cuddyer, they would be protected in the outfield corners, at first and third base, and have a designated hitter if Vargas flounders. I say give Mike 2-years at $9-10...because YOU CAN.

[Brandon]

My expectations for Mauer are tempered a little.  .290-.310 / .380/ .420-.440  or 35+ 2Bs and 10-15 HRs He really needs to be near elite defensively to get close to what we are paying him for.  200 hits in a season would be nice too since he wont hit 25 HRs 

[Steve Lein]

He works counts too well to ever get 200 hits. It's his blessing and his curse when it comes to whether you love him or hate him.

[DocBauer]

Not blasting anyone...just saying...a lot of people need to get off Mauer's back/case.

 

Despite the one big HR season, he never has been and never will be a big power hitter. And you know what? That's OK!

 

Sure, there were a few voices that called for increased power production getting out from behind the rigors of playing catcher daily. But that's a bit naive. I for one, and others echoed my thoughts, that there might be a slight increase in power production, but it's really about just being fresher for more overall games and AB's leading to more opportunity, not a sudden surge. Less physical abuse/demand on the body should lead to more games played, which leads to more AB's, which leads to an increase in overall production based on career norms per.

 

Mauer had a lot of things going on the past year, not the least of which was his concussion holding him back, and affecting his offseason preparation if nothing else. He is not old, he is not physically or mentally debilitated in any known way at this point. There is no reason he can't have a hard working off season and a healthy 140-150G season in 2015 at 1B with an occasional game at DH. No reason he can't return to being the .300 hitter with .380-.390-.400 OB% complete with 40 or so doubles. I dare say, healthy, at 1B, participating in said 140-150G we'd probably see 12-14 HR's just based on 500+ AB's.

 

A 1B doesn't have to be a big slugger to be a valuable member of your lineup. No reason he can't produce the numbers I've stated and be similar to what Grace, Hernandez, Joyner and others used to mean to their teams in the past.

[DocBauer]

Seems to me the Twins haven't made any major investments in milb talent at 1B the past few seasons, with the exception of a rookie FA or two. And I get and understand that. A quality 1B, overall, is nothing to take for granted for sure. But it's also an easier position to fill with player movement than many other spots.

 

 

Hicks intrigues me as he's been productive thus far, and is only 2 1/2 years in his career.

 

 

I'm still waiting for Kepler to really take that big step forward. I truly thought 2014 would be that year. I'm still waiting but haven't given up hope yet. Flatly, his athleticism should still see him as an OF option, but I think depth of talent and opportunity could make him a very interesting 1B opportunity.

 

 

Being a Big Red fan, I'm watching the career of Chad Christensen with great interest. An All Big 10 SS, he was moved to the OF, back to SS due to injury, and back to the OF again. As reported, he is a quality athlete who in college, and pro career thus far, has played multiple positions. He seems to have hit, defense, speed and decent XB power tools, though BIG power hasn't presented itself yet. He's such a nice athlete that I hate to pigeonhole him at 1B too early. But like Kepler, he could end up as a very intriguing player there.

[SwainZag]

Because a player rededicates himself to the game and the change of position after an injury, and prepares and adds strength and weight in the off season to evolve and just hit the ball 10 to 15 feet further with that "perfect swing".  Boys become men in their thirties, and many hall of famers have developed the most power in their thirties.  Cuddyer has hit better in his thirties than he ever did in his 20's (I realize that is not a great example, but it is true ).  Mauer has once been a power hitter with 28 dingers.  Mauer is a great player, a rare great player that someone like me believes can evolve.  He has it in him.  And then there is the comparative ease and far less body punishing position in the field, and supposedly far more games played per season that it allows..... and there you have the hope for the evolution of the 6'5" singles/doubles hitter into a power hitting first baseman. Or......... just hit the ball 10-15 feet further on the fly, and call it what you may.

 

Please name all the HOF members who developed power in their 30's.  Mauer is what he is, a guy who stands 6'5" with a great eye and a pure swing.  Mauer's greatest strength will always be his biggest weakness with his critics. People will always look to 2009 when he had his best season.  He is 31.  Why are people still wating for a power hitter out of him?  If he could get back to his career line of 320/400/460 and eventually finding the 2 hole in the lineup that would fit him oh so well, I'd be a very happy camper.

[Paul Pleiss]

Great look at the depth of 1B in the system. here's a specific question for our current and near-future 1B all-star, Joe Mauer. Should the Twins bat him in the leadoff spot? Maybe move Sandana, who has trouble walking, down to 6/7 in the order, along with guys like Hicks and Escobar.

 

I'd love to see Mauer/Dozier/Vargas/Arcia/Plouffe/Santana/Escobar/Schafer/Hicks, something like that.

 

Anyways, let's hope Joe can find his swing again, and continue to be his usual .400 OBP guy with doubles power. That will play anywhere in the lineup, really, roster construction doesn't change too much either way.

[Seth Stohs]

Great look at the depth of 1B in the system. here's a specific question for our current and near-future 1B all-star, Joe Mauer. Should the Twins bat him in the leadoff spot? Maybe move Sandana, who has trouble walking, down to 6/7 in the order, along with guys like Hicks and Escobar.

 

I'd love to see Mauer/Dozier/Vargas/Arcia/Plouffe/Santana/Escobar/Schafer/Hicks, something like that.

 

Anyways, let's hope Joe can find his swing again, and continue to be his usual .400 OBP guy with doubles power. That will play anywhere in the lineup, really, roster construction doesn't change too much either way.

 

No, they should not bat him leadoff (regardless of what my friend Brandon Warne says)... I think #2 is the perfect spot for him.

[h2oface]

...whoops.

[Secondary User]

Something that people need to realize about Mauer.....his 162 game average over his career for home runs is 14 home runs per 162 games.  If you take out his 28 home run season, he drops to 11 per 162.  Anyone who's asking Mauer to hit for 20+ home runs a season in Target Field, that's a long wait for a train don't come.  But 12-16 is not an unrealistic number, and if that's mixed in with 35-40 doubles (career 39 doubles per 162 games), that is more than enough power from even a number 3 batter if he's hitting .300.  I don' think any of these numbers are a stretch