Article: The Painful Truth?

[Nick Nelson]

Terry Ryan has formed a rock-solid reputation during his decades in the game of baseball, in large part because of his integrity and honesty. Say what you will about the man, but he will always give you his sincere opinion.

 

Sometimes, that honesty isn't so refreshing.Here are three quotes that Ryan has provided on three separate occasions since the season ended:

 

“We’re not broke here, we’re bent. We’ve got some issues, and we need to make better decisions. But I feel a heck of a lot better about this club and moving forward than I did a year ago,” Ryan said. “I don’t think we’re all that far away [from contention]. I don’t want to punt on 2015, but it’s still going to be a struggle.”

- Conference call with season ticket holders (via Star Tribune)

 

"No one said this is going to be easy. It’s going to take a lot of work and a little time,” Ryan said. “But the worst thing that could happen is, yeah, we’ve had four bad years. I don’t want it to turn into 14 bad years. Sometimes you make decisions that ultimately are going to benefit you down the line that don’t look exactly like what you want right now.”

- Phil Miller story from Tuesday's Star Tribune

 

"There isn’t any shortcut to this thing. I’m not going to pretend that this thing’s going to come together in the next six months. We’ve got a lot of work to do, I know it. I’m not going to hide and I’m not going to pretend. … I don’t know how long it’s going to take, but for everybody’s sake the sooner that we get this thing going in the right direction, the better."

- Interview with Parker Hageman for the upcoming Offseason Handbook

 

Hey Terry, maybe lighten up a little and leave the doom and gloom to the bloggers, eh? The season ended two weeks ago, for crying out loud! Is there a need to keep not-so-implicitly suggesting that we're likely to be in for another rough one next season when the sting of this year's 92nd loss remains so fresh?

 

On some level, I can appreciate what TR is doing. He's being frank and stern in his assessments of a roster that -- objectively -- still appears to be a ways off from contention. He doesn't want to blow smoke after four straight miserable years. I'll take that over the delusional rah-rah Tim Brewster rhetoric.

 

But while I'm sure Ryan is more hopeful than the above quotes would indicate, it sure seems like I have more faith in the ability of this team to be competitive next year than he does -- and I'm no eternal optimist.

 

Hopefully his actions this offseason don't match his words, but Phil Miller's story in Tuesday's Star Tribune emits little optimism on that front.

 

In the article, Ryan and team president Dave St. Peter share the same sentiment: payroll is likely to remain more or less static heading into 2015. In fact, St. Peter would only go so far as to say "we don't see it going down significantly."

 

Team execs bristle whenever the payroll topic is brought up, and I'm not one to wave the "spend money because you owe the taxpayers!" torch, but they've got to at least acknowledge that they bring this upon themselves.

 

In 2013, the Twins ranked 22nd in the majors with an Opening Day payroll of $76 million. In 2014, thanks to big signings like Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes, that number rose to $86 million. But despite the splurge, Minnesota's MLB rank dropped to 24th, because every single team that had sported a lower payroll in 2013 spent even more during the offseason.

 

If the Twins stay at $86 million or drop slightly, they'll likely be passed by a couple more teams, because with substantial new revenues flowing into the game from new TV mega-deals that kicked in this year, small-market franchises are spending more.

 

That said, it's not the payroll rank relative to other teams that bothers me, nor the dubiousness of this supposed "50 percent of revenue" standard. I'm just dispirited by the messages being conveyed.

 

I wouldn't advocate "spending just to spend," and I fully recognize that the Twins are in a position where they basically they have to roll with what they've got, but they have an acute need in left field with no answer in the pipeline.

 

I'd like to think that Ryan will at least aggressively pursue a quality player there to supplement his emerging core, but going after the most highly sought assets -- whether in free agency, or trade, or the international market -- requires a willingness to spend.

 

To see both the general manager and team president downplaying that whole notion so early in the offseason, at a time where fan morale is dreadfully low and the team is hemorrhaging season ticket holders, seems rather bizarre.

 

I'm depressed from reading this stuff as a fan. I can only imagine how the players must feel.

 

A friend reminded me of a quote that Glen Perkins shared back in June, after the Twins signed Kendrys Morales:

“It means a lot to the guys in here,” closer Glen Perkins said Sunday of the signing of Kendrys Morales to be the Twins’ new designated hitter. “Making moves like that, taking chances on making us better, it goes a long way for giving guys confidence, and knowing we’re all on the same page.”

Hopefully Ryan and the Twins will heed these words from their All-Star closer, and reconsider their stated offseason course. This roster ain't so bad. They need some pitchers to bounce back, but there are some nice young arms ready to make an impact, and the offensive unit is quite strong with elite prospects set to join soon. Youthful teams can emerge from the abyss quite quickly, as the two squads presently facing off in the ALCS can attest.

 

Don't sell these kids short. Give them some help. Or at least feign making an effort. When all you've got to sell is hope, it'd be nice to put a little out on the shelf.

 

Click here to view the article

[Highabove]

Honesty ????. Just Last week at the Season Ticket Holder Conference, Ryan stated that he had the flexibility to put a lot of money on one guy or spreading it around  on a number of Players.

What a difference a week makes.

Edited October 15, 2014 by Highabove

[glunn]

Honesty ????. Just Last week at the Season Ticket Holder Conference, Ryan stated that he had the flexibility to put a lot of money on one guy or spreading it around  on a number of Players.

What a difference a week makes.

I heard TR say that in the conference call and now it seems that he may be backtracking.  I also heard TR mention that $100 million should be enough.

 

I would like to see the Twins focus on one quality acquisition, not spread the money around.  We fans need something to be excited about.

[Twins7]

"No one said this is going to be easy. It’s going to take a lot of work and a little time,” Ryan said. “But the worst thing that could happen is, yeah, we’ve had four bad years. I don’t want it to turn into 14 bad years. Sometimes you make decisions that ultimately are going to benefit you down the line that don’t look exactly like what you want right now.”

- Phil Miller story from Tuesday's Star Tribune

 

 

I find this quote, especially the bolded part to be really interesting. I'm curious about the decisions he is talking about - but not so much in the conspiratorial sense that ownership is taking advantage of fan's love of the team by limiting payroll and maximizing profit. We all know that fans love exciting, winning teams - when a team starts winning, fans show up. Shoot, I'm sure most of the people on this site developed their love the twins with Kirby in 87 and 91, or Mauer and Santana in the 2000s.

 

What interests me is that that sentence seems to be an insight into TR's, as well as ownership's, theories of how to put together seriously good teams. Like, contend for the world series every year for a five year stretch types of teams. Like the Giants, or the Cardinals, or the darned Yanks. It seems like TR believes that the net benefits of certain moves that hurt the current team are large enough that enough of such moves will lead to an excellent team. Sort of an economics game. For one, being bad gives you advantages - higher draft picks, larger amounts of money to invest in the draft and a higher position on the waiver wire. These avenues really do allow bad teams to accrue talent, and the twins have been reaping the benefits.

 

Another angle that I find interesting is the flexibility of fandom: if you put together a team that is solid every now and then, but rarely great (Oakland, Tampa Bay, Colorado, Miami, San Diego), it's tough to build a rabid, thick-n-thin fanbase. This is all obvious stuff, but taken together it really speaks to TR and the Pohlad's strategy, which really can't involve anything else besides building a seriously contending team (imo). 

 

To consistently make decisions that will help future teams at the expense of the current team is ballsy as hell, and really can't be done without real job security. Trading away solid starting center fielders based on the work of minor league center fielders, and trading these cf's for minor league pitchers was pretty ballsy, with large risks and large rewards. But, TR knows his job is safe, and knows that these moves will result in a worse team temporarily. The upside of these moves is that Meyer and May become solid to good SP's, while young guys like Hicks or Bux develop to take roles vacated by Span and Revere - a net increase in production. The downside is basically what has happened so far - no real centerfielder, and doubts about the future of Meyer and Mays (although there is still a lot of time left).

 

What I'm really trying to say with this post is that I believe that TR and ownership believe, and act on, the idea that a truly excellent team is built through the acquisition of high upside talent at all positions, by any means necessary. Even if it means die-hard fans have to endure what we've been through the last 4 years.

[Platoon]

The left field issue seems to be currently in vogue. What the Twins need is someone who can catch the ball in left field. You have to have at least two guys who can catch the ball in the OF. Run scoring has not been an issue. So that could be Shafer, Hicks, or Santana if they continue to refuse to give him a legitimate look at short. Since they are not bringing Buxton up to,start the season, Shafer in center and Hicks in left works for me. Why Hicks in left? Because that's where he is either going to play or not play. Santana goes to SS until he proves he can't. Why this was not done last fall is a puzzle to me. But it leaves player auditions to still be held. It was one of the things that removed any doubt in my mind that a change in managers was needed.

[pierre75275]

The Twins, if they are going to improve need to do three things. One get a top tier pitcher. I prefer Jon Lester. Two trade for a center fielder. Try Peter B or John Jay. Sign or Trade for a Left fielder. IF they do all three of these things they will be able to contend for a championship next year. If they do two...they might win the central. If they go out and sign a second tier starting pitcher and stick with Schaffer as a full time LF the Twins will once again lose 85 games.

[nicksaviking]

I wonder how this pesimistic attitude translates during manager interviews. Quite well I'm sure.

 

If they are going to refrain from spending the extra $40 million or so on free agents because they want to play the young guys, it seems the obvious answer as to how not alienate the fans is to declare that the savings is going toward lowering TF beer prices to $2.50 a brew.

[beckmt]

This year should be about finding out what the Twins have.  Spending money just to spend is silly.  Adding a couple of high risk , high reward, low pay players should be part of the plan.  We should have the money to spend for some mid tier players, just by not offering contracts or arbitration to a few marginal pitchers.  We shall see after the team meetings what will happen

[Mike Sixel]

Who ever, even once, has said "spend money to spend money".

 

When can we retire that straw man?

[Linus]

I think the context in which the questions were asked is important.  The same answer will have a different impact depending on the context of the question.

 

I like the way Ryan is sincere about his answers.  And let's be honest: he is going to be criticized no matter which way he answers the question.  If he paints this optimistic picture that you seem to be wanting, others will say he is out of touch with reality and trying to deceive fans and season ticket holders.

[Mike Sixel]

Funny, there was no mention of any of this the last three years, was there? Were they lying 2 years ago when they said they'd be competitive in September, or wrong? Which is worse?

[brvama]

Great Article, Nick.

 

Would it have gone against their philosophy to give us the following: We are at a point that some things are starting to come together, but there is quite a ways to go yet. We have good players coming up and they will need the experience. While I don't believe free agency will bring us to a playoff team, yet, we have the funds available to improve our team so that we can become one.

[Linus]

Funny, there was no mention of any of this the last three years, was there? Were they lying 2 years ago when they said they'd be competitive in September, or wrong? Which is worse?

See what I mean?

[Rosterman]

Okay, you look at the team. You have to balance the plus with the minus.

 

First, you have a $70 million payroll going into 2015. But you are probably closer to $45-50 million because you have some major downers. Nolasco is eating up something like $10+ million. Will he come back or not? If he doesn't, you don't get the glories of that expenditure. Same with Pelfrey. He's a $6 million writeoff.  Mauer can return to the Mauer of old, but still, will he bring $20+ million of value to the lineup and the clubhouse. 

 

At this point, you have to bite and absorb these longterm committments and call them losses and move from there. If you egt something, anything of value from the players on the field, you will come out ahead. But you can't let the team as a whole suffer more because of it.

 

Pretty much everyone else on the roster is a wash. Perkins has more life than most. Suzuc is a average catcher at a reasonable price, you could've tried for anotehr but had no guarantee. You might have paid close to his salary and still get less, and you have to be wary that you may get less in 2015, but you hopefully have adequate pipeline reserves.

 

The outfield is a mess. We wait for Buxton, but he is only one-third of an outfield. Arcia is a work in progress that could get expensive as he hits arbitration without blowing people out of the water. Hicks is an enigma. You could actually sign an outfielder, even overpay a veteran for up to three years, and probably not kill the wallet.

 

But you also have to think Oakland A's smart and be prepped to move that outfielder, or move that Suzucki, or move that Nolasco, the moment they show any glimmer of baseball sainthood. Why, because you supposedly have longterm variables in the system.

 

But back to payroll. The Twins could spend $100 million. They have, in my estimate, $50 of reasonable payroll. They have $20 million in mistakes that need not count against the future. They should readily invest monies, partly because they do have the monies in the short-term to be wild and crazy and even eat more of the deadwood if it does happen, over the next five years. That current core of $50 million (even less when you take out Perkins and Suzuz) will even go down over time as the Sano, Buxtons, Polancos, Meyer, May, Stewarts et al

 advance in 2016 and 2017 and whoever else shines for 2018. 

 

The Twins have to create a competitive atmosphere. Something they were pretty decent as doing during the 2000s, but failing to take that next step that might put them into the playoffs and the World Series, partly because of money, partly because they don't play the game all that well. They play it safe, signing minor league free agents, hoping for that diamond (Scott) in the rough. But still not capitalizing on some of those diamonds and moving them when able and letting potential free agents walk, of players with super years then fail and become worthless. 

 

Too much rambling here, I apologize. 

 

But you don't get me to buy a season ticket by telling me you aren't going to competitively spend to improve the team, that I should be assured that the Twins will improve with the prospects (cheaper talent) in the system, and that I get 10% off on concessions.

 

Payroll and how you spend it is the biggest marketing expense of any professional sports team. Players that you make mistakes on are like creating an ad that no one remembers, or that people laugh at and dismiss. You get the right player, you put the correct product on the field, you don't have to do ads, really, the team will sell itself! So that is where you put your focus. And you have 52% of your revenue to play with each and every year, in the least, and even more as revenue goes up!

[Mike Sixel]

See what I mean?

 

I have no problem with what he is saying this year......it is the truth.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Great Article, Nick. Would it have gone against their philosophy to give us the following: We are at a point that some things are starting to come together, but there is quite a ways to go yet. We have good players coming up and they will need the experience. While I don't believe free agency will bring us to a playoff team, yet, we have the funds available to improve our team so that we can become one.

That's pretty good.  I would even leave out the "I don't believe free agency will bring us to a playoff team" part -- nobody reasonable is arguing that, they just want the team to get BETTER, and free agency can certainly help in that regard (especially when the front office does their job of identifying and acquiring good free agents -- good meaning quality or upside/value).

 

While no particular moves are mandated at any time, reasonably available MLB payroll and free agents should always be considered to help solve the puzzle, just as much as high draft picks and amateur bonus slots.

[bird]

Funny, there was no mention of any of this the last three years, was there? Were they lying 2 years ago when they said they'd be competitive in September, or wrong? Which is worse?

Ask the Tigers if they were playing a competitive Twins team in September, mike. I'm well aware that your definition of competitive will be much different than anyone associated with the Twins, but maybe you're the one who's wrong here. I'd never question your integrity and suggest you might be lying though, because that is so disrespectful and insulting.

[Mike Sixel]

That's pretty good.  I would even leave out the "I don't believe free agency will bring us to a playoff team" part -- nobody reasonable is arguing that, they just want the team to get BETTER, and free agency can certainly help in that regard (especially when the front office does their job of identifying and acquiring good free agents -- good meaning quality or upside/value).

 

While no particular moves are mandated at any time, reasonably available MLB payroll and free agents should always be considered to help solve the puzzle, just as much as high draft picks and amateur bonus slots.

 

This.......make the team better. If you have money, spend it to make the team better. It should not be a requirement that adding a FA makes them a playoff team, imo. Why is that standard applied to FA signings at all? 

[Mike Sixel]

Ask the Tigers if they were playing a competitive Twins team in September, mike. I'm well aware that your definition of competitive will be much different than anyone associated with the Twins, but maybe you're the one who's wrong here. I'd never question your integrity and suggest you might be lying though, because that is so disrespectful and insulting.

 

Were they competitive in September 2 years ago? Because I was talking about 2 years ago.

 

And, yes, PR / marketing / advertising lies a lot. Call it stretch the truth, call it what you want, but PR/marketing/advertising out and out lies a lot. All over the nation, in most every industry. Pointing out the truth of that industry is not disrespectful, it is pointing out the truth. The world is largely broken because people are afraid to point out the truth for fear of offending.

[USAFChief]

Ask the Tigers if they were playing a competitive Twins team in September, mike. I'm well aware that your definition of competitive will be much different than anyone associated with the Twins, but maybe you're the one who's wrong here. I'd never question your integrity and suggest you might be lying though, because that is so disrespectful and insulting.

Your contention is, when TR said he wanted to be playing meaningful games in September, he meant meaningful for the other team?

 

If they truly meant "competitive" as in taking a couple of games from a playoff team While closing out another 90 loss season, then I don't know what to say except IMO it's not Mike's definition of competitive that is questionable.

Edited October 15, 2014 by USAFChief

[bird]

Who ever, even once, has said "spend money to spend money".

 

When can we retire that straw man?

Whenever the subject of payroll comes up, we get mired in the same stuff: the 50% stuff, the relative payroll stuff, the tax subsidy stuff. Because of the unbalanced way this stuff is often presented, it IS essentially a "spend money to spend money" argument.

 

If you want to retire what you think of as a straw man on spending, I have a suggestion: let's begin every conversation about payroll spending with specifics and dispense with the same old same old.

 

I'll start, mike.

 

" Via trade or FA, Mr. Ryan, find me a two-way corner OF that is better than today's version of Hicks or Schaefer. Overspend for Melky if you have to, or spend less if you can, but give us results, sir. Second, pull off another Phil Hughes this off-season, via either FA or trade. Maybe a Leake or a Latos, I don't know, but you said you might have to overspend to do something. If you don't have to overspend, fine, but we need results, sir. And if you want to exceed our expectations, find us a young cost-controlled catcher with a higher ceiling than Suzuki. We're not asking you to outbid for Lester for 7 years. We get it, Mr. Ryan. But stop talking in generalized statements, especially ones that scare up more vitriol, and go fill a couple of the remaining holes."

 

Now, someone will always come back with the "buy us an ace" demand, and that's fine, because then the discussion can stay on more solid footing about the wisdom of that sort of spending, and we avoid the temptation to attack Ryan, Pohlad, and each other.

[TheLeviathan]

Good article - it's depressing to hear expectations being lowered before the World Series even starts.  There is an AL team about to make the World Series not because they went "all-in" for a year or any other silly notion...but because they got aggressive and made their own luck.

 

It doesn't always work, but lowered expectations and depressing payroll before the market even opens is likely a lot less effective strategy.

[Steve Lein]

I have no problem with what he is saying this year......it is the truth.

 

Yup.  It's just three or so years too late is what I think you're saying, and I would agree with.

[bird]

Your contention is, when TR said he wanted to be playing meaningful games in September, he meant meaningful for the other team?

 

If they truly meant "competitive" as in taking a couple of games from a playoff team While closing out another 90 loss season, then I don't know what to say except IMO it's not Mike's definition of competitive that is questionable.

I'm calling mike out, mostly to rib him a bit, for criticizing something as innocuous as the words TR used, and then to suggest TR might be a liar, although I'm confident it was a rhetorical device on mike's part. I bet we could go back and find a quote from 70% of all GM's in that same time frame about their team playing meaningful games in September. Over 50% of them would be wrong like Ryan, in an innocuous sort of way that makes it a weak target for criticism. 

[bird]

Were they competitive in September 2 years ago? Because I was talking about 2 years ago.

 

And, yes, PR / marketing / advertising lies a lot. Call it stretch the truth, call it what you want, but PR/marketing/advertising out and out lies a lot. All over the nation, in most every industry. Pointing out the truth of that industry is not disrespectful, it is pointing out the truth. The world is largely broken because people are afraid to point out the truth for fear of offending.

Sorry, my bad. I didn't realize you were discussing a PR and marketing strategy that was carried out two years ago by the Twins to specifically persuade the public that they'd be competitive in September. I don't recall the campaign. I guess I just assumed, in a thread about Ryan's statements, that you meant Ryan and not the whole St. Peter-led PR juggernaut.

[rghrbek]

Check out Gleeman's take on all this.  I tend to agree with him, as he suggests the Twins' FO has a distorted view of themselves...

 

http://aarongleeman.com

[Otto von Ballpark]

Over 50% of them would be wrong like Ryan, in an innocuous sort of way that makes it a weak target for criticism. 

How innocuous is it when his efforts to follow through on the statement amount to Hughes and Suzuki and then a pile of Mike Pelfrey (twice!), Kevin Correia (for two years!), Nolasco, Kubel, midseason Kendrys Morales, etc.?  While a division rival found an impact bat and leapfrogged us in the standings too?

 

If you don't want to criticize the statement for being disingenuous during a rebuild, you can certainly criticize the results.

[bird]

How innocuous is it when his efforts to follow through on the statement amount to Hughes and Suzuki and then a pile of Mike Pelfrey (twice!), Kevin Correia (for two years!), Nolasco, Kubel, midseason Kendrys Morales, etc.?  While a division rival found an impact bat and leapfrogged us in the standings too?

 

If you don't want to criticize the statement for being disingenuous during a rebuild, you can certainly criticize the results.

Absolutely, spy cake. Criticize the results. Lay off the disingenuous meme.

 

That way, we can argue instead about how bad the Hughes and Suzuki moves were. Or about the importance of leapfrogging someone in the standings to capture fourth place and whether even remaining in fourth place is very likely for the Whities, let alone taking the next several steps with a pathetically bare farm system.

 

And maybe, when discussing the dismal results to-date, we can also mention other very positive things (May, several new RP candidates, Santana, Vargas), or the fact that we now have a loaded farm system with a number of impact players on the cusp (Meyer, Burdi, Buxton, Rosario, Tonkin, Sano, Berrios, Polanco).

 

That way, no one gets called out for lacking integrity, the criticism is more balanced, and anyone who is either happy or unhappy with the pace of change is welcome to that point of view

[Otto von Ballpark]

Absolutely, spy cake. Criticize the results. Lay off the disingenuous meme.

 

That way, we can argue instead about how bad the Hughes and Suzuki moves were. Or about the importance of leapfrogging someone in the standings to capture fourth place and whether even remaining in fourth place is very likely for the Whities, let alone taking the next several steps with a pathetically bare farm system.

Uh, I specifically mentioned Hughes and Suzuki in the context of being the good moves.

 

And regardless of the specifics of the White Sox situation, their (relatively modest) cash-only risk on Abreu was mutually exclusive of their prospects and farm development.

[Linus]

Here's an idea.....maybe Ryan, when making statements about the team in prior years, was just giving his opinion about things.  He doesn't know exactly how things should or could play out, so he is offering up how he sees at that time.

 

Take free agency: some people act like he should just say "We are going to sign a high end pitcher".  Well, he might try his best to make that happen and, newsflash, finds out that people with choices don't want to come here, even for the same amount of money.

 

Its crazy what the expectations of fans are when it come to things that are said.  Perhaps that's why most GMs won't say bleep when they have a mouthful.  Because its a whole lot easier....