Twins Front Office Talk Payroll, Twitter Sounds Off

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm torn because i want to see the young guys play, and they draw little salary. But the cheapskate argument resonates with me too.

[beckmt]

Adding payroll for the sake of payroll will not produce results.  Another free agent pitcher will just block the kids for a couple of more wins a year.  Next year should be a sort out the young players and let them take their lumps.  By 2017 you will know what you need to buy in FA and will have the player base to support it.  I am not a fan of Duensing and losing him and Burton would not bother me.  Swarzak can have a case made for either way.  The rookies need to be up here and we find out if they can make it or not.  Payroll next year is not an issue.  Remember spending others people's money is always very easy.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

All of this payroll talk has an unfortunately familiar ring to it. Here's something I dug up from my archives - from almost three years ago:

 

http://knuckleballsblog.com/2011/12/27/the-twins-are-taking-a-huge-risk/

 

Brutal. And here we are, three years later.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm a Ryan backer in general, but I really wish the Twins had a better media strategy. Things Ryan and DSP are saying in the media are really, really, bumming me out.

 

Also...

 

"We're not rebuilding," Ryan said. …"we're going into this thing to compete."

 

"I see it very much as a situation similar to [MLB TEAM] last winter. They were in last place…, then all of a sudden they win [the division]. So certainly there are instances where teams have turned it around in quick order. It's happened before; we're going to try to do it again."

 

In what year did Ryan make the above comment?

a. 2011
b. 2012
c. 2013
d. 2014

 

Yep, you guessed correctly.

 

http://www.twincities.com/ci_19298159

[Willihammer]

The D-backs had an awful year but were .500 in 2012 and 2013. The Braves finished 4 games under .500 but won 96 games last year and have been in the playoffs pretty much every other year going on 20 years. Why were their managers of these two clubs fired? Two GM's overseeing clubs in markets similarly sized to the MSP area? Same reason Bill Smith was fired. $100m+ payrolls.

 

TR is going on year 3 of futility, but he's doing it on the cheap. That's what matters.

[USAFChief]

But pretty much every team got new stadiums over the past 10-15 years, right? So, instead, look at the dollars spent each of those years and see how that compares to their last five years in the Dome. If the Twins were still in the Dome, they wouldn't have been able to keep up with the inflation and would likely be #30 on the list.

 

14 opened since 2000.

 

24 if you go back to 1989.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

... the Twins (and most orgs) have a finite level of resources.

 

Agree.

 

$3.6 billion dollars, the wealth of the Pohlads, is a finite number.

 

Pro baseball teams are not family businesses, they are toys. Pohlads could spend 50% more in payroll and not really miss it. Twins could sign a top free agent arm this winter (Scherzer, Shields) and be just fine. Or make an offer for Price and let Detroit try to re-sign Scherzer. Price spent a few days of his personal time in the Twin Cities between the All Star Break and the Rays series after the break. Maybe Price is a guy who might like playing here. Find out. 

 

Another good PR practice is not to give anything away before you need to and buy time for new information, and here we find out that the idea of signing a good free agent for 2015 is being summarily shot down even before the 2014 season is over. They could have at least said "all option on the table" and then half-assed it again, without getting ticket holders unnecessarily ticked off. All that said, I think they are trying to do their best, and that next year will be better. And maybe they will change their mind on free agency. Not too late to do so. They just really need some outside voices in those TF offices, in my opinion. 

[Highabove]

Here's a news flash. Last year despite dropping attendance, the Twins were still able to triple their earnings from the year before  For the 2013 season, the Twins had the 6th highest earnings in Baseball!  Why, the Twins Revenue for 2013 came in at 221 million dollars. At the same time, the opening day payroll was  approximately 76 million dollars. Were the Twins  30+ million under their self imposed business model?

Where's the money and where is it going to go? The Twins seem to pull out the 50% model whenever it suits them. I didn't hear much about it last year. Gleeman is right, the real anger will be if the money disappears into the owners pocket. Saving it for future payroll would probably please most people.

 

 The Business Of Baseball - Full List - Forbes

If the Twins do not agree with the Forbes numbers, i'm sure, they will show us the correct ones.

[jay]

$3.6 billion dollars, the wealth of the Pohlads, is a finite number.

 

Pro baseball teams are not family businesses, they are toys. Pohlads could spend 50% more in payroll and not really miss it.

Being rich is synonymous with being a pro sports owner. Let's not pretend it's unique to the Pohlads. The "afford it" argument is plausible, but the number of owners that have done it across all of pro sports can be counted on one hand.

 

When payroll rationale is based on unrealistic statements, it reminds me that this is purely an exercise in voicing frustration. Let's be real, NO level of payroll would be enough to satisfy everyone. There's always that one more guy they could sign. [eye roll]

[jay]

If the Twins do not agree with the Forbes numbers, i'm sure, they will show us the correct ones.

I'm sure they won't.

 

Given those Forbes numbers haven't really ever aligned to the MLB payroll @ 50%, you're left to either assume the Twins outright lie about it every time they bring it up (which feeds the juicy story of lining rich owner pockets with more cash... ooooh yes, that one please) OR your calculation technique varies significantly (far more likely).

[old nurse]

Here's a news flash. Last year despite dropping attendance, the Twins were still able to triple their earnings from the year before  For the 2013 season, the Twins had the 6th highest earnings in Baseball!  Why, the Twins Revenue for 2013 came in at 221 million dollars. At the same time, the opening day payroll was  approximately 76 million dollars. Were the Twins  30+ million under their self imposed business model?

Where's the money and where is it going to go? The Twins seem to pull out the 50% model whenever it suits them. I didn't hear much about it last year. Gleeman is right, the real anger will be if the money disappears into the owners pocket. Saving it for future payroll would probably please most people.

 

 The Business Of Baseball - Full List - Forbes

If the Twins do not agree with the Forbes numbers, i'm sure, they will show us the correct ones.

The profit is not all that different from 2010 and 2011.  I think the drop in revenue droped them from a contributor to a recipient in revenue sharing. That makes the difference in the profit.

[Otto von Ballpark]

There have been a few posts here and there about signing under 30 free agents.

Mostly from me.  Just because TR doesn't participate in it does not mean the international free agent market does not exist.  And there's no reason it has to be limited to last offseason -- a majority of MLB teams have signed at least one international free agent since TR took over in 2011.  A rebuilding team looking to build future assets while trimming payroll would have been a natural fit for that market.

[pierre75275]

I usually don't get involved in the payroll dispute, but his team is really turning into Major League, Everytime I see or hear a payroll quote I feel the need to watch that movie. I am sick of watching poor major league players being given full time roles with the club. I don't need to name names, everybody knows who they are. I just know the way the team is being run is sadly making me lose my love for the team and baseball as a whole. I find myself with better things to do then watch or care what is going on with this team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I find the arguments for a higher payroll ironic. In order to have a higher payroll, some of the young cheap players would not be playing on the major league roster. Santana would not have been called up had the Twins signed a center fielder last offseason. Deduno and the rotation of AAA replacements would not have taken the 5th rotation spot. Colabello's hot April would not have happened. Parmalee would still be at AAA. A free agent shortstop would have thankfully saved us from Florimon's poor season and Escobar's emergence as a starter.

Our regular lineups in April and May featured Florimon, Colabello, Kubel, and even some Parmelee, not to mention the destined-for-demotion Hicks.  June and July lineups featured Willingham and Morales playing out the finals months of their Twins tenures, and August and September had future Twins cornerstone Jordan Schafer plus the re-appearance of Parmelee and Hicks.

 

 

And on the pitching side, Correia was taking regular rotation turns the whole season into August, not to mention "DFA" Deduno and "Outright" Pino, and "Pitching Through Pain" Pelfrey and Nolasco.

 

If the above players would have blocked Santana, Gibson, Vargas, etc., that's a whole 'nother problem on top of our general inability to identify and acquire FA talent.

 

(Wait -- you believe Deduno, Colabello, and Parmelee getting significant playing time in 2014 was a good thing?  Never mind then, I don't think we will see eye to eye on this one.)

[tobi0040]

14 opened since 2000.

 

24 if you go back to 1989.

 

I was going to look that up because many of the stadiums are very old, not everyone has a new stadium.  The Dome was built in 1982, so the Twins have actually had two new stadiums in the time span other teams have been playing in the same one.

 

I just refuse to buy the logic that we should be happy they got a new stadium and that was just to keep up and not fall behind.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Across all sports, even salary capped, the successful teams build around young players before they reach that high priced stage. It's not an accident that essentially every professional sports organization uses that model (except maybe the Yankees). To suggest something else would work better ignores a lot of real world reality.

First of all, if by "high priced stage" you are talking elite $100+ mil free agents, that's a universe of maybe 1-3 free agents per offseason.  Very few teams could sign them by definition, just based on the extremely limited quantities.

 

I think here we are more discussing the entire universe of free agent talent, including the more middle tier Nolasco level and perhaps even the lower tier Hughes/Willingham level.  Plenty of teams are active in those markets all over the success cycle.

 

Secondly, wouldn't the better free agents by definition often come from the better teams?  The simple likelihood of them re-signing with their old teams might make them more likely to end up in the better destinations.

 

Thirdly, a full half of MLB teams this past season finished above .500, and a few more finished within 10 games of a wild card spot.  Most teams in most years qualify for having a sufficient base to augment by adding a free agent.

 

Finally, the biggest FA of last offseason (Robinson Cano) signed with a team that had just avoided a 5th consecutive last place season only because the Astros switched leagues.  Exception that proves the rule?  What about the team that finished last in the Twins own division signing a top international talent?  Heck, I believe even the moribund Astros were rumored finalists for both Abreu and Tanaka.  Going back a couple years, off the top of my head, Oakland was coming off its worst season in its worst stretch of the Beane era when they signed Cespedes.

[tobi0040]

Being rich is synonymous with being a pro sports owner. Let's not pretend it's unique to the Pohlads. The "afford it" argument is plausible, but the number of owners that have done it across all of pro sports can be counted on one hand.

 

When payroll rationale is based on unrealistic statements, it reminds me that this is purely an exercise in voicing frustration. Let's be real, NO level of payroll would be enough to satisfy everyone. There's always that one more guy they could sign. [eye roll]

 

According to Forbes, 11 teams lost money in 2013 while the Twins made $30M, 6th most in baseball.  Not to mention that is a one year P and L that does not account for the franchise value increase from $288M in 2007 to $700M now (The Forbes number has them at over $600M, but estimates of the new cable deal pushed their value to $700M).

 

While it is true that being rich is a pre-condition to owning an MLB team, by any measure the Twins owners are much closer to the conservative, frugal side of the spectrum.  Would you agree?

 

http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#page:1_sort:6_direction:asc_search:

[Otto von Ballpark]

But pretty much every team got new stadiums over the past 10-15 years, right? So, instead, look at the dollars spent each of those years and see how that compares to their last five years in the Dome. If the Twins were still in the Dome, they wouldn't have been able to keep up with the inflation and would likely be #30 on the list. 

Twins seemed to keep up with baseball inflation just fine from 2000-2005 in the Dome, before Target Field was even approved.

[Mike Sixel]

Is there a difference between 30th and 24th?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Is there a difference between 30th and 24th?

Yes, ~$40 mil as of opening day 2014.

 

However, there is virtually no difference between 28th and 24th ($8 mil), or even 28th and 18th, for that matter ($15 mil, or just over Kendrys Morales' full season salary in 2014).  The Twins are basically in the same lump of teams as they were pre-Target Field and post-contraction/Don Beaver.

 

An aside: if autocorrect changes my "Morales" to "Molasses", that's still correct on some level, right?

[jay]

While it is true that being rich is a pre-condition to owning an MLB team, by any measure the Twins owners are much closer to the conservative, frugal side of the spectrum. Would you agree?

I would tend to believe the Twins' financial approach is close to in line with the majority of other teams. I'd love to see a long-term analysis across all of MLB or other pro sports to prove otherwise.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would tend to believe the Twins' financial approach is close to in line with the majority of other teams. I'd love to see a long-term analysis across all of MLB or other pro sports to prove otherwise.

Might be close on payroll now (they are pretty much solidly in the bottom third of MLB teams in payroll at the moment, so they definitely have company).

 

But approach?  Up until Sano, the Twins had probably the worst/cheapest international operation in MLB.  And until last offseason, I believe they ranked #28 in MLB for biggest outside FA contract ever.  And I'd guess they ranked near the bottom for draft bonuses (adjusted for slot) pre-2012 too.  And they have essentially the same GM/FO/ownership group that oversaw all of that.

 

So until they consistently show otherwise, I think they are definitely still among the most risk-averse/frugal/conservative teams in MLB.  Fortunately the new amateur caps/slots have mitigated some of this, but evidence of the approach/philosophy still remains.

[tobi0040]

I would tend to believe the Twins' financial approach is close to in line with the majority of other teams. I'd love to see a long-term analysis across all of MLB or other pro sports to prove otherwise.

 

Here is 10 years. It is tough to find rankings based on operating income per year.  But last year 11 teams lost money on a P and L basis in 2014 and the Twins were 6th in profit.  As a sample, I looked at two others years.  In 2006 five teams lost money and the Twins were 25th in profit.  In 2009, two teams lost money and the Twins ranked 6th in profit.

 

2014 - 30M profit

2013 - 11M profit

2012 - 17M profit

2011 - 27M profit

2010 - 25M profit

2009 - 27M profit

2008 - 24M profit

2007 - 15M profit

2006 - 7M profit

 

It seems fairly clear to me that the Twins are never going to lose money on this team and about 15 teams have lost money in at least one year over this stretch.  Some teams like the Tigers, Yankees, and Dodgers have done so in multiple years.  The Twins will never be in that group. So I don't see how we are middle of the road at all.

 

Add in Jim's net worth is estimated at $1.1B, ranking him 9th among owners.  Their Dad's fortune of around $3B would put them 2nd. It is really hard to conclude they are not on the conservative side of the spectrum.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46941774/page/3

[TheLeviathan]

What is the purpose then of adding talent by spending if not to contend.  I have yet to see a positive comment about the spending on Nolasco, Morales, Kubel, Guerrier or Bartlett. I would be amazed to have people not complain about the team if payroll was  at 100 million and still lousy.

 

You add talent to supplement what you already have, but no one is arguing spending money magically makes you a contender.  On the flip side, ardently refusing to invest in adding talent certainly limits you.

 

This club has systemically refused aggression since Terry Ryan took the GM helm, coincidence or not.  They have not earned the benefit of the doubt that they will be more aggressive and every time they make the bizarre decision to talk publicly about payroll they will get hammered for justified reasons.  Going out to get outside help DOES help, but no one expects this to be a team of mercenaries.  But, by god, it'd be nice to have a few.

[goulik]

Let's go back to the Red Herring concept...

 

In the dome our great players moved elsewhere for their big pay days (Hunter for eg.) and when we built Target field we gave Mauer AND Morneau the big pay days to keep them only to see concussions blow up both their careers. Nobody else has come up in the system WORTH paying since then causing payroll to go down.

 

Teams that spend big in free agency tend to lose big in free agency (I would love to see the percentages on big time free agents that pay off vs regress) so I see this as a non topic and won't even look at responses to this post. Let's move on...

[tobi0040]

Let's go back to the Red Herring concept...

 

In the dome our great players moved elsewhere for their big pay days (Hunter for eg.) and when we built Target field we gave Mauer AND Morneau the big pay days to keep them only to see concussions blow up both their careers. Nobody else has come up in the system WORTH paying since then causing payroll to go down.

 

Teams that spend big in free agency tend to lose big in free agency (I would love to see the percentages on big time free agents that pay off vs regress) so I see this as a non topic and won't even look at responses to this post. Let's move on...

 

Acquiring talent is not limited to re-signing your own players.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I see this as a non topic and won't even look at responses to this post.

Can you expound on this point further?

[Otto von Ballpark]

In the dome our great players moved elsewhere for their big pay days (Hunter for eg.) and when we built Target field we gave Mauer AND Morneau the big pay days to keep them only to see concussions blow up both their careers. Nobody else has come up in the system WORTH paying since then causing payroll to go down.

If our drafting and development was so poor as to completely dry up the pipeline, perhaps that's a good time to look outside the org for young/international FA who only cost cash but have the potential to become the long-term assets that you sorely lack.  Or, just wait 5 years to see if you can draft better.  Either way, I guess.

 

Also, while I am sympathetic to the Mauer/Morneau concussion angle, in 2012-2013 Mauer was just fine and Morneau was only -2.5 WAR from his pre-concussion average.  We still lost 96 games both years.

[ashbury]

But clicks.

 

Short of the B/R approach and putting every comment on its' own page, creating payroll commiseration threads is the next best option. TD has bills to pay!

Announcement: due to the Twins' fourth consecutive 90-loss season and a concomitant decrease in social media activity, Twins Daily is instituting a reduction in its minor league coverage to only Cedar Rapids which is within a day's drive of home.  Moreover, the discussion Forums will be condensed to two main areas, Major League, and Everything Else.  John Bonnes will continue to write articles, when he has time after getting home from his new second job bagging groceries at Byerlys; the rest of the staff will be on temporary hiatus.  TD remains committed to...   oh, I can't finish this satire.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Announcement: due to the Twins' fourth consecutive 90-loss season and a concomitant decrease in social media activity, Twins Daily is instituting a reduction in its minor league coverage to only Cedar Rapids which is within a day's drive of home.  Moreover, the discussion Forums will be condensed to two main areas, Major League, and Everything Else.  John Bonnes will continue to write articles, when he has time after getting home from his new second job bagging groceries at Byerlys; the rest of the staff will be on temporary hiatus.  TD remains committed to...   oh, I can't finish this satire.

The big question: will Twins Daily payroll decline significantly next year?

 

Do you expect to be making meaningful posts next September?