Article: Postseason Review: Aaron Hicks

[James Richter]

Hicks has arrived in Venezuela and made his 1st appearance for the Bravos de Margarita.

[Paul Pleiss]

Aaron Hicks is no longer the CF of the future. A guy named Byron Buxton was drafted and apparently knows a thing or two about playing baseball, both on offense and defense. But Aaron Hicks very well may be the CF for 2015.

 

I like what Ashbury John has said, that Terry Ryan needs to make sure to have a back-up plan in place for Aaron Hicks, in case he fails. Maybe SanDana is that piece. A lot will depend on where Danny is going to play next year. I think that Hicks and Santana are somewhat tied to each other, and that the new manager will play a big roll in deciding how to handle the two of them. So as much as I want to scream that Hicks will figure it out and he needs MLB reps, I think we need to see who the new manager is, and see what his past says about what his future may bring.

 

That being said, Aaron Hicks, after Trevor May, is my breakout candidate for 2015.

[Paul Pleiss]

Hicks has arrived in Venezuela and made his 1st appearance for the Bravos de Margarita.

 

Bravo for Margaritas, that's something I say every time I saddle up to the bar at my local Mexican restaurant and have a salty delicious 'rita on the rocks.

[ashbury]

Bravo for Margaritas, that's something I say every time I saddle up to the bar at my local Mexican restaurant and have a salty delicious 'rita on the rocks.

 

....nah, never mind, you're right, carry on.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Hicks recorded his first 2014 Venezuelan League hit , going 1-3 yesterday.

 

Box Score

[Dantes929]

Ok Mike I get what you are saying so lets just say that among 9 guys you want at least half of them to be   able to get on base at a good clip.   Hicks got on base at a better clip than the team average and was in the top 5 on the team and probably just a couple hits from being in the top 3.   There is value in that.   Can he keep it up with his low average because the pitchers won't allow it but if they are forced to throw more strikes then perhaps his average won't stay so low.  

[Dantes929]

Chief, OBP simply measures whether or not you get on base or not.    Its the equivalent of saying "did you make an out or didn't you?"       If you say " no I didn't make an out.  I hit a home run"    I would say "ok your answer is no, you didn't make an out.  Now go tell slugging % and OPS about your home run ( or your single, double or triple)".    OBP has a value all its own separate from how you arrived at it.      Devaluing walks is like saying a guy batting .225 with all singles that gets on base at a .225 clip has pretty much the same value of a guy with a .225 average with all singles that gets on base at a .340 clip.   Its simply not so.     

[stringer bell]

I'm trying to be evenhanded here.  Aaron Hicks' OBP increased substantially from 2013 to 2014. but it was at the expense of power.  In '13, Hicks had 22 XBH in 313 PAs and had a slugging avg of .338, this year Hicks' slugging decreased to a miserable .274, with nine XBH in 181 PAs.  That's Jamey Carroll and Nick Punto territory for slugging. 

 

This version of Hicks isn't good enough to play in the majors.  I think there is a better player there, but he needs to prove it and develop in Triple A.  In light of the last two disappointing seasons, I think it is unconscionable to give him a starting position, no matter what he does in the spring.  It would be great for a guy with the tools of Aaron Hicks to become a good enough hitter to man a corner outfield position.  I just don't know if that will ever come to pass. 

[Paul Pleiss]

Let's not get into the semantics of OBP and what is does and does not measure. It means different things depending on what you're trying to quantify. You're both right. It measures how often a guy didn't make an out. But OBP can feel a bit empty when you're looking at OBP and thinking about how that translates to moving guys around base. Obvi a .340 OBP guy who gets more hits is more valuable than a .340 OBP guy who takes all walks. But the big take away here is that if you can sustain a .340 OBP, that's solid offensive value.

[Mike Sixel]

There is value in a 340 OBP. But it is hollow if you can't slug (or even hit) at all. Just getting on base at a 340 clip is not enough to be even average (overall) as a MLB player. You also have to hit, and field.

[Physics Guy]

From Klaw's most recent chat:

 

Cris E (St Paul, MN)

What's your take on Aaron Hicks? Is he still young and figuring things out or is the work piling up enough to draw conclusions?

 

Klaw  (1:44 PM)

Change of scenery guy for me. Sounds like the org has soured on him a bit, and he might need the wakeup call of a trade to ramp up his own efforts.

[ashbury]

There is value in a 340 OBP. But it is hollow if you can't slug (or even hit) at all. Just getting on base at a 340 clip is not enough to be even average (overall) as a MLB player. You also have to hit, and field.

It depends on the makeup of the team around him. 

1. Picture a team with a lot of low-OBP sluggers (doubles and home runs); replace the worst one with a crafty guy who can get on base but has absolutely no power at the top of the order, and scoring may take a big jump upward, seemingly out of proportion to that one guy. 
2. But on a team that already has a lot of guys getting on base with scratch singles and walks, getting another guy like that to replace the worst guy might not improve matters a whole lot, with 3 or even 4 baserunners per inning still needed to score one measly run. 
3. On an average team with average OPS made up of some on-base guys and some sluggers, I'd guess that you want to look at OPS or other "runs created" kinds of numbers for the new guy too, and not just OBP.

Rules of thumb like adding up OPS work in middle of the road scenarios, but I think there are some non-linearities that crop up when you get away from the median.  Extreme outliers, either of a team or (particularly) of a player, make the analysis harder.

 

I would guess that a team can handle having two high-OBP but empty-SLG hitters.  Adding a third starts to be a problem in lineup construction, having more is bad.  If you already have two, find someone else.

[USAFChief]

I'm too lazy to look it up, but if memory serves, the sabrgeeks have determined a single is worth about 25 percent more than a walk on average.

 

So no, all OBP is not equal.

[Willihammer]

Hicks 1-2 (single) with 2 walks yesterday.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2014_10_16_leowin_marwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l135

[TheLeviathan]

If Aaron Hicks was a ridiculously talented CF ala Cain...than I would be more ok with his empty .340 OBP.  As a guy that has basically played his way to a corner spot?

 

Um, no, a walk-heavy .340 with no power is just never going to cut it.

[James Richter]

In his minor league career, Hicks has never had a season in which his Iso was lower than .111, and that came in a 22 game sample. His Iso in 262 minor league PAs in 2014 was .150. This notion that he can't hit for power is based on 186 MLB PAs last season. Looks like a SSS outlier to me.

 

The organization has soured on him, or Gardy soured on him? Other players Gardy soured on: JJ Hardy, Craig Breslow, Kyle Lohse, Pat Neshek... It is hardly damning that Gardy soured on somebody. If the new manager hates him, too, OK. Meanwhile, he showed up for winter ball in the first week - that shows some commitment, doesn't it?

[stringer bell]

Isn't it likely that the two things are interrelated?  In order to get on base more, he seems to have sacrificed power.  I didn't see him hit the ball hard at all this year and he increased his OBP mostly by taking more walks. Hicks used his good strike zone judgment to go deep in counts, but the passive approach also robbed him of power perhaps.  I'll say again that his offense isn't good enough to be a regular in the major leagues.  Until he proves he is a good enough hitter, he should be working on it in the minors.

[jokin]

Isn't it likely that the two things are interrelated?  In order to get on base more, he seems to have sacrificed power.  I didn't see him hit the ball hard at all this year and he increased his OBP mostly by taking more walks. Hicks used his good strike zone judgment to go deep in counts, but the passive approach also robbed him of power perhaps.  I'll say again that his offense isn't good enough to be a regular in the major leagues.  Until he proves he is a good enough hitter, he should be working on it in the minors.

 

And especially given his anemic offense... his defense isn't good enough to be a regular in the majors, either.

Edited October 17, 2014 by jokin

[bird]

Hicks should be fine now that they've got rid of Rick Anderson.

[bird]

"Actually all OBP is created equally."

 

No. Runner on second or third....is a walk the same as a hit?

I really really hope the new manager grills Joe Mauer on this question.

[bird]

So Ash, what would you do this off-season regarding Plan B for LF and CF?

[bird]

Hicks just completed his age-24 season.  Schafer today at age 28 and Fuld at 30+ aren't comparables for such discussions.  OPS gains of .100 from one season to the next are not uncommon at Hicks's age. 

 

Going again without a legitimate Plan B on the 40-man roster would be foolish of course - this is true no matter how good your starter is.  But I would lean toward Hicks as my starting CF in 2015 unless he flounders during spring training, and if he needs to be sent down to AAA I still wouldn't flush him from the organizational depth chart unless he failed again in 2016 (when he would then have no minor league options left).

....based on this...

[bird]

Aaron Hicks is no longer the CF of the future. A guy named Byron Buxton was drafted and apparently knows a thing or two about playing baseball, both on offense and defense. But Aaron Hicks very well may be the CF for 2015.

 

I like what Ashbury John has said, that Terry Ryan needs to make sure to have a back-up plan in place for Aaron Hicks, in case he fails. Maybe SanDana is that piece. A lot will depend on where Danny is going to play next year. I think that Hicks and Santana are somewhat tied to each other, and that the new manager will play a big roll in deciding how to handle the two of them. So as much as I want to scream that Hicks will figure it out and he needs MLB reps, I think we need to see who the new manager is, and see what his past says about what his future may bring.

 

That being said, Aaron Hicks, after Trevor May, is my breakout candidate for 2015.

I sure hope you're right about Hicks, Paul! And I think, like with Dozier and others, the hope is justified.

 

But I keep circling back to this Plan B in my little head, and I get nervous thinking that Santana and Schaefer represent Plan B if Hicks falters. That's not good enough IMO, even for 2015, even with Rosario laying in the weeds. That would be like counting on Scott Baker coming off injury as your #3 starter, and what GM in their right mind would do THAT?

 

So then, I think about what kind of conversation a GM has with, say, Colby Rasmus. "Colby, we want you to sign this one-year contract, start the year in CF until Buxton shoves you out of the way, maybe as soon as mid-year. And then, unless Hicks is stinking up the joint in LF, you'll be picking splinters out of your pants for the rest of the year." 

 

If I'm the GM, I'm finding an everyday LF for 2015 and letting my manager decide among Santana, Hicks, and Schaefer for CF until Buxton comes along.

Edited October 18, 2014 by bird

[ashbury]

So Ash, what would you do this off-season regarding Plan B for LF and CF?

I'd lean toward a FA option for LF, with the idea of trading that guy if someone else (Rosario is the flavor of the month right now) forces the issue in 2016 or even in 2015.  There's money in the budget to get someone Pretty Darn Good^TM, for 3 years say, and somebody like that should be tradable even if not for seemingly equivalent value - we still come out ahead unless he pulls a Nolasco^TM.

 

For CF I'd try for a smaller FA signing or a small trade - somebody with a skillset like Fuld's for instance, or a little better, preferably with minor league options so he can be stashed in Rochester.  CF is a premium position but TR is pretty good at working at this end of the spectrum - I'm not a big Schafer fan but he and Fuld were good gets.

[JB_Iowa]

Just saw that Glynn is bench coach for Bravos de Margaritas. Hope that Hicks benefits from that.

[stringer bell]

Just saw that Glynn is bench coach for Bravos de Margaritas. Hope that Hicks benefits from that.

Doing well so far. 4-11 with a homer and three walks. However, I don't see any major leaguers playing in Winter League. Do they usually play later in their season?

[JB_Iowa]

Don't have any idea about most major leaguers but since I'm still catching up, I'll also post this nugget from Berardiino which bodes well on the maturity question:

 

 Hicks and longtime girlfriend Lauren Roberts have pushed back their original wedding date of Nov. 8, which should enable Hicks to follow through on his plans to play in Venezuela for the next month or so. The mere fact he has returned to winter ball should help his chances with the Twins going forward.

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/10/15/twinsights-aaron-hicks-heads-venezuela/

[Dantes929]

As I said OBP has a value all its own regardless of how it is achieved.   .340 is an above average OBP so it is not like Hicks is worthless especially since he is fast and getting on in front of Santana and Dozier.   However, that is just defending his OBP having value.  I am not saying it has enough value to keep him there.   His slugging % and there fore his OPS are not high enough and I am ok with people saying it makes him less than average ( or mediocre or bad ) overall.   Yes, a hit is probably more valuable than a walk but the case for that is slugging % and OPS.    Maybe there is a misconception about that stat.   If you get singles it is a positive thing for those two categories.    If you get a 100 singles in 100 at bats your slugging % will be an excellent 1.00 as will your OBP.   Walks don't count at all in slugging % and thus only have half the value of hits in OPS.   Hicks has a very good and valuable OBP.     If you want to attack him do it for his very poor OPS or slugging %.    That is where  the difference in walking vs hitting gets reflected.

[TheLeviathan]

  That is where  the difference in walking vs hitting gets reflected.

 

Perhaps that's why we shouldn't limit our evaluation to OBP.  That's sort of the problem for those that defend Hicks.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Hicks 2-4 yesterday (2 singles) avg at .400 so far.