Article: Postseason Review: Aaron Hicks

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think this is the most important offseason of Hicks' career - if he can find a way to improve in some key areas by next Spring, he has a good chance of keeping his job. If he is no better next year, he'll probably find his way out of the organization once Buxton is promoted (or earlier if the Twins find a trade partner to acquire someone to replace him).

 

He showed a little improvement this year compared to 2013, but it hasn't looked good for Hicks in the majors to date.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I get that Hicks might be a minor upgrade to Schaffer or something like that, but I think it suites his long term interests (and the team's) best if he is expected to start in AAA this season and earn a call up.  Opportunities will arise, so this isn't a permanent thing, I just think he needs to earn it.  Given how the league average OPS has dropped, I'd be OK shifting him to the corner at some point (especially given the poor OF defense) if he can keep that OPS around .750.  That makes him a pretty solid player at that point, but I think the Twins should be done handing him an opportunity...  Make him earn it.

[TheLeviathan]

Actually all OBP is created equally.  Either you get on base or you do not.   The advanced metric you are looking for is OPS.    A walk isn't better than a hit but it is WAY better than an out.    I am not defending Hicks so much as a major leaguer and I was one that never saw value in his switch hitting from the very start but I will defend OBP.    341 OBP is very good from the 9 spot no matter how it is achieved.   It bothers pitchers, runs up pitch counts, bores defenders, creates run scoring opportunities, advances runners , eliminates double play possibilities and most importantly is not an out.     

 

If you are strictly referring to the player at the plate, yes, OBP is equal.  A walk and a single, for just the hitter, is the same.  But the impact on other baserunners is very different.  

 

It's real simple to me - would I rather have a guy with a .341 OBP that was ALL walks or ALL singles?  Singles all the way because then at least occasionally I have 1st and 3rd rather than 1st and 2nd.  That was my point.

[Willihammer]

Anyone know if Hicks is going to Venezuela this winter?

[tobi0040]

I get that Hicks might be a minor upgrade to Schaffer or something like that, but I think it suites his long term interests (and the team's) best if he is expected to start in AAA this season and earn a call up.  Opportunities will arise, so this isn't a permanent thing, I just think he needs to earn it.  Given how the league average OPS has dropped, I'd be OK shifting him to the corner at some point (especially given the poor OF defense) if he can keep that OPS around .750.  That makes him a pretty solid player at that point, but I think the Twins should be done handing him an opportunity...  Make him earn it.

 

I don't think he has much more to prove in the minors.

 

2012 - .844 OPS in AA

2013 - He was in the big leagues all but 22 games, at the tail end of a disasterous season and had a .650 OPS

2014 - After being sent down, he had an OPS of .871 in AA and .740 in AAA.

[TheLeviathan]

You're content with a .740 OPS at AAA?

[tobi0040]

You're content with a .740 OPS at AAA?

 

In 22 games, after an .871 OPS in 42 at AA.....yes.

 

He was in double A as a 22 year old and more than held his own.  His issue is proving he is an MLB player and I think he needs to do it up here. He had a little momentum at the end of last year.

Edited October 13, 2014 by tobi0040

[TheLeviathan]

In 22 games, after an .871 OPS in 42 at AA.....yes.

 

He was in double A as a 22 year old and more than held his own.  His issue is proving he is an MLB player and I think he needs to do it up here. He had a little momentum at the end of last year.

 

A barely .600 OPS is hard to swallow as "momentum".  Let's see him attack AAA pitching first and prove he's ready, because I saw nothing in September that lead me to think a corner had been turned.

[tobi0040]

A barely .600 OPS is hard to swallow as "momentum".  Let's see him attack AAA pitching first and prove he's ready, because I saw nothing in September that lead me to think a corner had been turned.

 

He hit .250, .350 OBP, and a .650 OPS in September.  It was a step up from .184/322./546 earlier in the year.

 

That doesn't scream starting LF....but I don't expect him to have a .750-800 OPS overnight.

Edited October 13, 2014 by tobi0040

[bird]

If I'm the GM, my job is to project the contribution that can be expected from Hicks in 2015. Oh, and then put a fallback plan in place. Ryan has been overly optimistic with his projection on Hicks, not once, but twice, and his fallback plan was atrocious the first time, barely adequate in round two.

 

I just can't get myself to believe that Ryan will screw this up a third time. In my opinion, finding a two-way corner OF, via FA or trade, trumps every other need this off-season. I'm hoping they're projecting Hicks as a first-class 4th OF, although they may be first assessing whether he'll be good in the clubhouse in that role, and it wouldn't shock me if they move him based on that assessment. I'm bringing him into spring training with his clear understanding that he's battling it out for the 4th OF spot, and telling him, "tough if you don't like our projection for you, prove us wrong".

[TheLeviathan]

He hit .250, .350 OBP, and a .650 OPS in September.  It was a step up from .184/322./546 earlier in the year.

 

That doesn't scream starting LF....but I don't expect him to have a .750-800 OPS overnight.

 

Being able to achieve a step up from that initial slash line isn't much of an accomplishment in my eyes.  Especially since it included a .326 BABIP - sorry, I just need to see him show he's ready rather than hope for it again.

[tobi0040]

If I'm the GM, my job is to project the contribution that can be expected from Hicks in 2015. Oh, and then put a fallback plan in place. Ryan has been overly optimistic with his projection on Hicks, not once, but twice, and his fallback plan was atrocious the first time, barely adequate in round two.

 

I just can't get myself to believe that Ryan will screw this up a third time. In my opinion, finding a two-way corner OF, via FA or trade, trumps every other need this off-season. I'm hoping they're projecting Hicks as a first-class 4th OF, although they may be first assessing whether he'll be good in the clubhouse in that role, and it wouldn't shock me if they move him based on that assessment. I'm bringing him into spring training with his clear understanding that he's battling it out for the 4th OF spot, and telling him, "tough if you don't like our projection for you, prove us wrong".

 

I totally agree he has been misjudged and I think projecting Hicks as a 4th OF until he proves otherwise is fine.  A starter is priority #1 for me though.

[Brandon]

Hick's floor is 4th OF but I think his ceiling is Starting Pitcher or Reliever with that 97 mph fast ball.  When he was drafted many scout doubted his ability to hit up here, but no one doubted is ability to pitch. 

[Mike Sixel]

Hicks floor is AAA, with occasional MLB time, imo. YMMV, but I'd say its not even a lock he's a 4th OF for the next 7 years.....

[stringer bell]

If I'm the GM, my job is to project the contribution that can be expected from Hicks in 2015. Oh, and then put a fallback plan in place. Ryan has been overly optimistic with his projection on Hicks, not once, but twice, and his fallback plan was atrocious the first time, barely adequate in round two.

 

I just can't get myself to believe that Ryan will screw this up a third time. In my opinion, finding a two-way corner OF, via FA or trade, trumps every other need this off-season. I'm hoping they're projecting Hicks as a first-class 4th OF, although they may be first assessing whether he'll be good in the clubhouse in that role, and it wouldn't shock me if they move him based on that assessment. I'm bringing him into spring training with his clear understanding that he's battling it out for the 4th OF spot, and telling him, "tough if you don't like our projection for you, prove us wrong".

I guess I wouldn't limit his competition to 4th OF.  I would say that he will come to spring training battling for a spot, with no guarantees. If Eddie Rosario is better overall, Hicks past time in the majors shouldn't win him a spot.  I'm half-kidding about Eddie, but he might be due for a major-league breakout.  I don't think you want a 25-year-old with admittedly good tools as your fouth OF.  If the Twins retain Schafer, he is ideal for that role especially with the elite base-stealing tool. 

[kenbuddha]

But Hunter also had Puckett to help pave the way. And Span had Hunter to help pave the way. Revere had Span to offer some initial help and advice as well. Not making excuses, just wondering if Hicks was not only promoted too soon, but wonder if lacking a mentor could have hurt him.

 

Hunter did not have Puckett mentoring him, nor did Hunter mentor Span. When Hunter came up it was Rich Becker and then Otis Nixon playing CF (Puck had retired a couple years before Hunter came up). And when Span came up he played RF because it was Carlos Gomez playing CF.

Maybe those players were good mentors, I have no idea, but there wasn't a direct line from Puckett to Hunter to Span. Hicks on the other hand, just kind of showed up with no real mentoring at all (which may be your actual point).

[James Richter]

Lest we forget, through 500 PA Dozier was hitting .227/.266/.316 after also getting very little experience at AAA. And he was older than Hicks, and had a less impressive prospect pedigree. The Twins stuck with him and gave him a chance to figure it out at the ML level, and we're glad they did. Dozier appears to have some makeup qualities going for him that Hicks is lacking. Then again, lots of guys who got into Gardy's doghouse for one reason or another were able to thrive under different leadership in other organizations. I like that the new coaching staff gives Hicks a bit of a change of scenery within the same team.

 

We need to see him display some power in-game, and make all the routine plays on the bases and in the field. Physically, he's capable. Mentally, there's clearly more work to do. I hope he shows by the end of spring training that he's progressing as a professional. But unless he completely falls on his face in the Grapefruit League, I want to see him get another 500 PA with the Twins in 2015.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Hunter did not have Puckett mentoring him, nor did Hunter mentor Span. When Hunter came up it was Rich Becker and then Otis Nixon playing CF (Puck had retired a couple years before Hunter came up). And when Span came up he played RF because it was Carlos Gomez playing CF.

Maybe those players were good mentors, I have no idea, but there wasn't a direct line from Puckett to Hunter to Span. Hicks on the other hand, just kind of showed up with no real mentoring at all (which may be your actual point).

That's a good distinction to make - it wasn't a direct line from one to the other. I think the point remains valid though, in the sense that Hunter did have Puckett around spring training and throughout the season, and Span was around Hunter in Spring training and had him as a resource as he made his way up the minor league ranks, Revere and Span actually played on the same team for awhile. By the time Hicks was promoted to starting CF, he was the best CF left in the organization (player or coach), and we can all see how that worked out for him. 

[tobi0040]

I don't mean to sidetrack this thread, but all OBP is not equal, IMO. A single is worth more than a walk, because it can advance base runners more than one base, for one thing. And, of course, not all hits are singles...some are doubles, triples and home runs.

 

As this relates to Hicks, I think it's doubtful he can maintain a .340 OBP unless he can hit for a higher average. Major League pitchers are too good to keep walking guys who can't hit.

 

My personal preference would be to give Hicks one more shot at CF out of spring training, and hopefully settle the issue, with Buxton somewhere on the horizon to either move Hicks to LF or 4th OFer, or out of the organization. He might fail (as might Buxton) but at least you could feel fairly confident at that point about giving up on Hicks.

 

I agree. Give Hicks another shot out of spring training.  If he fails as a starter, move to your 4th OF with occassional platoon oportunities.  Or just outright platoon LF.  I would definitely platoon him over cut him.  He has proved to be a .750 OPS guy against lefties.  He has to provide at least average defense in a corner, which would be a huge win for us.

Edited October 13, 2014 by tobi0040

[Zachary]

If, as the article suggests, he does actually have some work ethic or motivation issues, maybe the new skipper will be a complete no-nonsense guy and not want anything to do with Hicks. I know if I were a manager and I had a guy who is struggling to stay in the big leagues and he is not taking EVERY opportunity to better himself and he doesn't seem entirely motivated, he wouldn't find himself in my lineup very often. 

[Mike Sixel]

Do most guys work out like Dozier, or failish?

 

I guess if they are punting on next year, and they want to use the sink or swim technique.....he could start in CF.

[tobi0040]

If, as the article suggests, he does actually have some work ethic or motivation issues, maybe the new skipper will be a complete no-nonsense guy and not want anything to do with Hicks. I know if I were a manager and I had a guy who is struggling to stay in the big leagues and he is not taking EVERY opportunity to better himself and he doesn't seem entirely motivated, he wouldn't find himself in my lineup very often. 

 

I think that type of coach would be great for Hicks, but would probably give it some time to reach his own conclusion.

[stringer bell]

I was absolutely convinced that Aaron Hicks needed to be sent down to AAA to start 2014, ask ChiTown. Now the season is over and what has he proven? To me, handing him the center field job would be the definition of insanity--"repeating the same mistakes over and over again and expecting different results,"  It seems to me that posters here want to give Hicks a regular position (or 4th OF slot) based on potential and tools.  The performance hasn't been there.  I know that the Twins won't be picked to contend next year, but I think they have to go into the season expecting to be in the race.  If they are doing that, they can't send out a guy who has failed two years in a row to try the same plan for the third time.

 

In regards to the player's development, I think absolutely it is best to send him back to AAA to master that competition.  We can all agree that Hicks has shown he can handle AA, but a .740 OPS isn't mastering the next level.  Hicks needs to improve his overall game, but specifically he has to hit better left handed.  I think he would be much better off working on that specific thing in Rochester.  If he continued to be anywhere near as poor from the left side for the Twins, he would almost have to be platooned and platooning a guy who has unrealized potential (especially the RH hitting half) is counterproductive IMHO. 

[djvang]

Hicks seems to be a much better hitter when he abandons the "work the count" approach that has infested the game. When you get a hittable pitch, HIT IT! Doesn't matter if it's the first pitch or the 8th. You might only get one hittable pitch per at bat. Don't waste it.  Hicks is helpless when he gets two strikes so don't let it get to that point.

[ashbury]

would I rather have a guy with a .341 OBP that was ALL walks

I vote for this.  Setting a major league record that is highly unlikely to ever be broken is always fun.

[Physics Guy]

Just thought I would share this article about Jackie Bradley Jr. and Xander Bogaerts.  Seems to mirror Hicks a bit.

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/08/22/red-sox-made-rookie-mistakes-with-bogaerts-bradley/UU8BvcvtLgZNHCaonEIdoO/story.html

[stringer bell]

Just thought I would share this article about Jackie Bradley Jr. and Xander Bogaerts.  Seems to mirror Hicks a bit.

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/08/22/red-sox-made-rookie-mistakes-with-bogaerts-bradley/UU8BvcvtLgZNHCaonEIdoO/story.html

Maybe we could swap problem first round draft choices. Their ages and stats are pretty similar and maybe both guys could benefit from a fresh start.

[Otwins]

I would platoon Hicks with Schaefer in left. Use the bench player later in the game if we are winning to get Arcia and his minus 23 runs saved out of the outfield. If we are losing use them as pinch runners. Hicks will not be the everyday cf once Buxton is ready. This gives Hicks a chance to prove himself in the majors but in a reduced role so if he flops again it does not impact the rest of the team as much as the last two years.

Edited October 14, 2014 by Otwins

[shimrod]

"Actually all OBP is created equally."

 

No. Runner on second or third....is a walk the same as a hit?

[ashbury]

Hicks just completed his age-24 season.  Schafer today at age 28 and Fuld at 30+ aren't comparables for such discussions.  OPS gains of .100 from one season to the next are not uncommon at Hicks's age. 

 

Going again without a legitimate Plan B on the 40-man roster would be foolish of course - this is true no matter how good your starter is.  But I would lean toward Hicks as my starting CF in 2015 unless he flounders during spring training, and if he needs to be sent down to AAA I still wouldn't flush him from the organizational depth chart unless he failed again in 2016 (when he would then have no minor league options left).