Article: Postseason Review: Aaron Hicks

[stringer bell]

"Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on you".

 

Aaron Hicks has been the starting center fielder for the Twins the last two opening days. He was a thorough disappointment in 2013, eventually getting demoted to AAA and not being recalled in September. With the bar set considerably lower in 2014, Hicks still fell far short of expectations and offered much content for sports analysts with his supposed lack of preparation and short-lived decision to abandon switch hitting.Hicks spent much of this summer in New Britain and Rochester, but was recalled in September. Aaron got 70 plate appearances in September with the big club. There was talk of better focus and more confidence, but the result was something short of scintillating. Hicks hit .250 with a .648 OPS. His OBP was an entirely acceptable .348, but he had only three extra-base hits in those 70 plate appearances. The "eye test" left this observer equally unimpressed. Hicks hit the ball hard only a handful of times. Getting good wood on the ball is a part of his hit tool that seems to be missing to this point.

 

On top of the offensive struggles, there have been whispers and inferences that Hicks is not committed to being a great baseball player. He skipped winter ball last year. He supposedly didn't know who was pitching one day and showed up late for a non-mandatory session with the training staff so that the manager felt he couldn't use him on that particular day.

 

And then there is the switch-hitting debacle. Hicks has always been better as a right- handed hitter. Many on this site thought the answer was simple--abandon switch-hitting. Without consulting his manager nor discussing it with anyone else on the team, to public knowledge, Hicks decided to give up switch-hitting. When it became obvious he needed work to have an acceptable chance against right-handers and because he was able to rehab after a trip to the disabled list, Hicks was sent to Double-A and then optioned there when his rehab time ended. The idea was to work on the swing, but shortly after being optioned, Hicks went back to switch-hitting. The platoon splits are pretty stark--Hicks' combined OPS was .615, but his OPS was .792 against left- handed pitchers and only .512 vs right-handers.

 

This is the contrast between tools and skills. Everyone remarks that Hicks has tools and he does--good speed, strong throwing arm and big athletic body. The tools are good, but they aren't exceptional, except for perhaps his outstanding throwing arm. The skills haven't caught up with the tools. Maybe they never will. I think Hicks' absolute upside is Austin Jackson--supposedly the next great all-around center fielder, who has been pretty good, but never an All-Star and a guy who hasn't become a high-average hitter, accomplished power hitter, stolen base threat or Gold Glove defender.

 

Given the Twins' dearth of outfield options, Hicks will most likely get another chance to make good on his potential. I maintain that what is best for his development and ultimately best for the team is to go to Triple-A and build his confidence by dominating at that level. He has just turned 25 so there is a chance that he is a late bloomer who will thrive when he "gets it". The Twins, however, can't assume that he will.

 

Fool them three times, shame on them.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

You have the quote exactly backward......

 

Send him to AAA, or platoon him, but please don't make him the full time starter in MN until he shows he can hit (not walk, hit).

[ashbury]

You have the quote exactly backward......

I figured that was meant as the joke leading off the article.

[Mike Sixel]

I thought so, but it is so darn hard to tell.....if it was, it actually worked on me, I laughed. Then I wondered, was I laughing at a joke, or a mistake......

 

Really, discussing that quote might be the most fun part of this particular thread.....

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think Hicks is back in play as a viable contributor.

 

Hicks sure hasn't helped himself but he was in Gardy's doghouse from Day 1. (Refresher article here and gif here.) That didn't help.

 

Now for 2015, Hicks has a great opportunity in front of him. Is he on his way to a winter league has anybody heard? That might tell us a lot.

[Riverbrian]

In my opinion... If Hicks is on the opening day roster. A viable safety net with talent will be required.

[tobi0040]

In my opinion... If Hicks is on the opening day roster. A viable safety net with talent will be required.

 

He can't be counted on to be an every day player until he earns it.  That includes preparation as well as results. 

 

I do think that his floor is a 4th OF/platoon at any of the OF spots against lefties (career .750 OPS).  Unless we make a splash in free agency, I would rather see him up here than in AAA.  He has been back down 3 times now.

Edited October 10, 2014 by tobi0040

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

He's still a couple years shy of most athlete's physical peak - it could be awhile before his on field performance matches his potential.

 

Hicks was probably rushed to the majors, a lot of people will agree with that.

 

He might need more seasoning at AAA, or maybe he's as good as he's going to get...

 

I bristle at the critics that question his work ethic because I feel that a lot of that stuff is coming from hearsay from (in my opinion skewed) beat writer columns and from opinions that people in the organization formed of him early on. I think about how much Carlos Beltran would get ripped for looking lazy, or on the flip side how Joe Mauer gets criticism for not showing enough outward emotion . . .

 

Professional athletes seem to get burned both ways - either they are called robots (or worse, lazy) for not showing "enough" emotion, or they are called arrogant for showing "too much" emotion. I think judgements of a player should be results based, rather than a judge of their personality.  We don't know how much Aaron Hicks cares about baseball, only he can ever know that for sure.

 

Hicks has a lot of things in his game that can be improved, that part is objective. If he had been hitting .300 since he was called up, but had the same expression on his face, he probably wouldn't have the reputation of being lazy or aloof or out of touch.

[tobi0040]

He's still a couple years shy of most athlete's physical peak - it could be awhile before his on field performance matches his potential.

 

Hicks was probably rushed to the majors, a lot of people will agree with that.

 

He might need more seasoning at AAA, or maybe he's as good as he's going to get...

 

I bristle at the critics that question his work ethic because I feel that a lot of that stuff is coming from hearsay from (in my opinion skewed) beat writer columns and from opinions that people in the organization formed of him early on. I think about how much Carlos Beltran would get ripped for looking lazy, or on the flip side how Joe Mauer gets criticism for not showing enough outward emotion . . .

 

Professional athletes seem to get burned both ways - either they are called robots (or worse, lazy) for not showing "enough" emotion, or they are called arrogant for showing "too much" emotion. I think judgements of a player should be results based, rather than a judge of their personality.  We don't know how much Aaron Hicks cares about baseball, only he can ever know that for sure.

 

Hicks has a lot of things in his game that can be improved, that part is objective. If he had been hitting .300 since he was called up, but had the same expression on his face, he probably wouldn't have the reputation of being lazy or aloof or out of touch.

 

Based on his manager, he has been tardy a few times and is never among the first there.  He also showed up one day without knowing who the starting pitcher was for the other team.

[Craig Arko]

Bringing out the best in Hicks will be a major challenge (and hopefully, accomplishment) of the new staff.

[stringer bell]

In the article I listed Hicks' absolute upside as Austin Jackson, who come to think of it could be a Twins' trade target (he bombed in Seattle), I almost included his floor--Joe Benson, who is/was athletically gifted but never showed he could handle pitching above the AA level. To me, so far that is all Hicks has proven.

 

Is there someone who has seen something beyond three wind-blown homers all hit right handed in Spring Training, that demonstrate that Hicks can ever be solid .800+ OPS hitter? This is a big man all of 6'2" 190, and last year he had nine extra-base hits in 235 PAs. We've already got Mauer as a big singles hitter.

Edited October 10, 2014 by stringer bell

[tobi0040]

In the article I listed Hicks' absolute upside as Austin Jackson, who come to think of it could be a Twins' trade target (he bombed in Seattle), I almost included his floor--Joe Benson, who is/was athletically gifted but never showed he could handle pitching above the AA level. To me, so far that is all Hicks has proven.

 

Is there someone who has seen something beyond three wind-blown homers all hit right handed in Spring Training, that demonstrate that Hicks can ever be solid .800+ OPS hitter? This is a big man all of 6'2" 190, and last year he had nine extra-base hits in 235 PAs. We've already got Mauer as a big singles hitter.

 

I think Hicks right now is in the range of many of the 4th OF's we have had.  OPS-wise.  He should be able to play all 3 OF positions with a few reps and provide now at least an average bat against lefties.. 

 

An .800 OPS is a bit of a high standard.   A league average corner OF is not that high.

[Willihammer]

I'd peg Hicks upside at Desmond Jennings. Walk rate around 9%, strikeouts around 25%, not a lot of pop, good baserunning. Average defense in Center but above average in a corner. Never an all star, but an acceptable .725 player at the bottom of the lineup.

[Paul Pleiss]

Why does Hicks need to hit, and not just walk? For him to live up to his potential and be a mid or top of the order bat he needs to hit, absolutely, but if he's an 8/9 hitter and just gets on base... that seems pretty valuable to me.

 

yes, I want to see more from him with the stick, and on defense, but unless the Twins bring someone else in, I think it makes sense to play him everyday. Heck, maybe the Twins will get a manager that believes in the power of a platoon. Hicks could be a good fit for that type of guy.

[TheLeviathan]

Why does Hicks need to hit, and not just walk? For him to live up to his potential and be a mid or top of the order bat he needs to hit, absolutely, but if he's an 8/9 hitter and just gets on base... that seems pretty valuable to me.

 

yes, I want to see more from him with the stick, and on defense, but unless the Twins bring someone else in, I think it makes sense to play him everyday. Heck, maybe the Twins will get a manager that believes in the power of a platoon. Hicks could be a good fit for that type of guy.

 

Well, for one - he isn't a longterm CF because of his own erratic, subpar play and the future of the organization.  So if you're a corner OF that can't hit and only walk - you are hurting your team.

 

Just taking walks is not going to be enough if you can't wedge any power or production beyond an empty .220 batting average.  This is one of those times when the advanced stats do a disservice if they lead you to believe every OBP is created equally.

Edited October 11, 2014 by TheLeviathan

[Paul Pleiss]

Just taking walks is not going to be enough if you can't wedge any power or production beyond an empty .220 batting average.  This is one of those times when the advanced stats do a disservice if they lead you to believe every OBP is created equally.

I understand that a walk is not the same as a single, and that there is added value in producing hits, especially of the extra base kind. But I think people get hung up on having to have a slugger type in the corner OF spots. A guy who gets on base .340+ is valuable, especailly at the back of the lineup, a lineup that can then turn over for your big bats to knock around and home.

 

I'm a Hicks homer, I know, I'm just don't know why people are giving up on him at 25. Yes, it's been a bit of a disaster the last two years... but he's improving. Trevor Plouffe was a disaster his first couple seasons. A lot of guys have struggled. I have always believed that Hicks has the tools to be a regular major league player, above average even, and I think he should get at least one more season to prove that, even if it means spending some more time at AAA.

 

Of course, I also believed Joe Benson could be that same type of player, amazing tools, great hair, just never put it all together. So obviously my prospect analysis and projections are flawed, but I still think Hicks can and will figure it out at the MLB level.

[TheLeviathan]

Please don't misunderstand, I haven't totally given up on Hicks and I don't need him to hit 25 homeruns from LF.  But I do need him to be about 100 points higher in OPS and likely a much better baserunner as well.

 

That's a steep improvement hill to climb and I'd like to see him working towards that in AAA to start next year.

[stringer bell]

I echo Levi comments about Hicks' potential and development. Further, the worst thing that could be done to Hicks is to platoon him, assuming that means only starting him against left handed pitchers.  That would make him a bench player, probably starting between 40 and 50 games. 

 

As to believing that Hicks would provide value as a bottom of the order guy, aren't there better alternatives than that?  The Twins got two guys off waivers that were better bottom of the order guys (Fuld and Schafer). 

 

Hicks two-year totals include more than 500 plate appearances.  Comparing his two-year OPS with all qualifiers for this year puts among outfielders puts Hicks below all of them.  If you are going to be a regular outfielder, you have to post an OPS within shouting distance of .700 and Hicks two-year number is .606.  The "new improved" Hicks of September had an OPS of .648, still lower than all outfield qualifiers this year.  No I don't believe that what we've seen from Hicks so far is good enough. 

[Willihammer]

I hold out hope that a fresh start with a new manager will benefit Hicks. By the end of last season it seemed clear to me that, fairly or unfaily, he was in the doghouse.

[DocBauer]

What I know.

 

Hicks came to the Twins as a talented athlete but rough around the edges ballplayer. He's often been compared to a young Torrie Hunter. He's only a couple of seasons removed from not only being a top 100 milb prospect, but also his very best season as a pro in AA. There was a lot of hope and anticipation, but he fell flat, and was probably promoted too early.

 

Hunter struggled at first as well, but every player is different and it's unfair to take comparisons too far. But Hunter also had Puckett to help pave the way. And Span had Hunter to help pave the way. Revere had Span to offer some initial help and advice as well. Not making excuses, just wondering if Hicks was not only promoted too soon, but wonder if lacking a mentor could have hurt him.

 

I know he's still too young, still too filled with potential to just chuck him aside.

 

What I don't know:

 

Is Hicks mentally tough enough? Is he a victim of being promoted too soon? Or does he just lack the desire and ethic to make himself in to a ML ballplayer?

 

I don't know that Schafer is the answer for 2015 in CF. I also don't know that Hicks is or isn't. But I believe the Twins need to make a move via trade or FA to bring in a 3rd possibility. From those 3, you find 2 to share the spot, or provide a starter and 4th OF spot. Regardless, it should be, at most, a 1 year stopgap until Buxton is ready.

 

Perhaps Hicks surprises and makes a move in '15. But he also might be better served being in AAA to allow talent and production to meet up.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think all of the outfielders lack a mentor in the Twins organization right now - Even when Willingham was still on the roster, he was an outfielder in name mostly. Certainly he had some leadership qualities, but he was in the outfield because that was the least damaging place to play him in the field. Most of the coaches that worked on Gardy's staff were infielders. Bruno is another exception, but I don't think his fielding was ever a big plus on his resume.

 

CF is a hard position to play, and having a veteran on the roster that can relate some of the finer points of the position would be extremely valuable. I am not in favor of a Torii Hunter Reunion Tour signing, but if it did happen this would be the biggest plus - having him in the org again would allow Hicks and Buxton both to have a mentor that was the very best CF'er for years. 

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think lack of mentor is why he can't hit as a LH hitter.

 

Who here is saying "give up on him"? Not one person that I see. Can we actually discuss what is being discussed, and not some straw man, on at least on thread on this site?

 

He is not a good fielder right now. He's a terrible hitter. A walk is better than an out, but it's not as good as a hit. RIGHT NOW, he is not a starting OF on a MLB team.

[Dantes929]

Actually all OBP is created equally.  Either you get on base or you do not.   The advanced metric you are looking for is OPS.    A walk isn't better than a hit but it is WAY better than an out.    I am not defending Hicks so much as a major leaguer and I was one that never saw value in his switch hitting from the very start but I will defend OBP.    341 OBP is very good from the 9 spot no matter how it is achieved.   It bothers pitchers, runs up pitch counts, bores defenders, creates run scoring opportunities, advances runners , eliminates double play possibilities and most importantly is not an out.     

[Mike Sixel]

I don't get this whole "he's good enough for a number 9 hitter".

 

No one plays number 9 hitter, they play a position on the field. I've never understood this logic that if he's good for a number 9 hitter, he's fine.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I don't think lack of mentor is why he can't hit as a LH hitter.

 

Who here is saying "give up on him"? Not one person that I see. Can we actually discuss what is being discussed, and not some straw man, on at least on thread on this site?

 

He is not a good fielder right now. He's a terrible hitter. A walk is better than an out, but it's not as good as a hit. RIGHT NOW, he is not a starting OF on a MLB team.

I agree with all of that.

[Physics Guy]

Hicks is clearly one of the more perplexing players on the Twins roster.  I agree with many that his floor is most likely a 4th OF.  He can play all three OF positions and has the ability to get on base.  If that is what he becomes, I will be disappointed.

 

I hope that a new manager can light a fire under him and get him to achieve closer to what we all hope he can be.  He was most likely promoted too early in his career.  He has proven multiple times that he is slow to adjust when he moves up.  Not only did he move up, but he did so from AA originally.  Hindsight tells us that was a very bad decision.  Bringing in a stopgap CF after trading Span and Revere would have been the smart thing to do.  I still don't have a problem with the trades, Meyer and May should be in the rotation at some point this year.

 

I would like the new manager to start Hicks in CF next year if he deems Hicks ready to handle it.  I could see a partial platoon with Schaefer to help build Hicks' confidence.  Schafer bats from Hicks' weakside and posted a .681 OPS against RHP last year.  Start Schafer against the better RHP on occasion, maybe 20-30 starts.  Schafer can get additional starts in LF and RF to give those players a break and be a defensive sub there as well. 

 

Hicks is still young, he will be 25 all of next season.  I still hold out hope he can be a .750 - .800 OPS OF.  If so, he can play in the corners when Buxton is promoted.  If not he becomes the 4th OF.  Yes, he needs to do more than just walk. 

[stringer bell]

Physics Guy--yes Hicks is still young.  Yes, he has impressive tools.  However, there isn't much to suggest he can hit enough even to be a fourth OF.  He hasn't been good above AA.  He has successfully moved only one level at a time.  If there is something there, he needs to show it in Rochester.  It is close to folly to give him a spot as a starter again.

[tobi0040]

Physics Guy--yes Hicks is still young.  Yes, he has impressive tools.  However, there isn't much to suggest he can hit enough even to be a fourth OF.  He hasn't been good above AA.  He has successfully moved only one level at a time.  If there is something there, he needs to show it in Rochester.  It is close to folly to give him a spot as a starter again.

 

Hicks OPS of .606 is in line with Shafer's .621 and Mastro's .564.  I woud rather see Hicks in this role with some AB's here or there than a journeyman. At least Hicks has a shot at playing his way to a starting role.

 

Agree with the assessment that a 4th OF is a floor.  He could platoon out there as well.  Although I hope he can prove to be more.

Edited October 13, 2014 by tobi0040

[Bill]

Let him start the season in AAA, and play everyday there against both righties and lefties.  If he does well for a few months, then bring him up.  There is no point in making him a platoon player in the majors yet.

[USAFChief]

Actually all OBP is created equally.  Either you get on base or you do not.   The advanced metric you are looking for is OPS.    A walk isn't better than a hit but it is WAY better than an out.    I am not defending Hicks so much as a major leaguer and I was one that never saw value in his switch hitting from the very start but I will defend OBP.    341 OBP is very good from the 9 spot no matter how it is achieved.   It bothers pitchers, runs up pitch counts, bores defenders, creates run scoring opportunities, advances runners , eliminates double play possibilities and most importantly is not an out.

 

I don't mean to sidetrack this thread, but all OBP is not equal, IMO. A single is worth more than a walk, because it can advance base runners more than one base, for one thing. And, of course, not all hits are singles...some are doubles, triples and home runs.

 

As this relates to Hicks, I think it's doubtful he can maintain a .340 OBP unless he can hit for a higher average. Major League pitchers are too good to keep walking guys who can't hit.

 

My personal preference would be to give Hicks one more shot at CF out of spring training, and hopefully settle the issue, with Buxton somewhere on the horizon to either move Hicks to LF or 4th OFer, or out of the organization. He might fail (as might Buxton) but at least you could feel fairly confident at that point about giving up on Hicks.