Article: Twins Research Team Won't Tip Their Pitches

[Parker Hageman]

The Minnesota Twins’ Manager of Baseball Research, Jack Goin, does not like to tip his pitches.

 

Most statistically-inclined minds would like to hear that the team is working on finding the next market inefficiency to exploit or running regression models on supercomputers in efforts to find an in-game strategy that would help gain a win or two. Others might just assume they are just sorting the RBI leaderboard at Fangraphs.com. Either way, Goin isn’t going to tell me what they are working on.“I’m not overly concerned that people see us as middle-of-the-pack, below-the-pack or any of that stuff. Obviously, I’m working on where I want to get to as a department but I’m not concerned what the outside perception is, so to speak.”

 

By most outside estimates, the Twins likely fall in the middle of the pack. Unlike the Houston Astros who went all-in on analytics from the top down in their ballclub, the Twins seemingly view that as one piece of the equation, one ingredient in the recipe. And, unlike the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Astros, who receive splashy tell-all write-ups from Grantland and Bloomberg touting their organization’s analytical deployment, Goin likes to keep his activities and goals close to the vest.

 

This past August Grantland’s Ben Lindbergh revealed that the Pirates send 26-year-old Mike Fitzgerald on road trips with the team to provide information when the team is away from PNC Park. Lindbergh notes that Fitzgerald, whose title is Qualitative Analyst, is what most people would consider a friggin genius. A math graduate from MIT, Fitzgerald tags along with the Pirates to provide “direct, in-season information” to the coaching staff.

 

“Fitzgerald, meanwhile, makes most road trips: If the Pirates are playing, he’s almost always at the park,” Lindbergh writes. “I surveyed several analysts from other front offices, and none of them knew — or would admit to knowing — of another employee with Fitzgerald’s statistical expertise who travels close to full-time with a team.”

 

As a footnote to his statement, Lindbergh mentions that one of the reasons he may have been unable to find another team to admit they have the same practice is because, like the Twins, most research departments are mum on their methods. Baseball analysts, Lindbergh notes, are the secretive sort.

 

Goin, however, admitted that the Twins have a similar practice in place, sending one of the members of the analytics department on about sixty percent of the road trips. Like the Pirates, the Twins would be able to feed data to the coaching staff on request. Having someone from the research department traveling with the team allows him to provide insight on pitching matchups, how to pitch opposing players and, what has become increasingly more common, defensive shifts.

 

In 2013, the Twins fielders shifted -- aligning three infielders on one side of second base -- just 66 times (27th). This year, that number dramatically increased to over 500 times (16th).

 

“Joe Vavra kind of chipped away at that in 2013, starting to get some shifts involved and then Gardy was starting to go along with it then and we took it to another level for us this year,” explains Goin. “A lot of that was Molitor, he did a lot of video work.”

 

“I’m not sure how much Gardy liked the shift but as it started to pay off he liked it a little bit more", said general manager Terry Ryan. “We never shifted too much the last couple of years, but neither did anybody for that matter. It was always the David Ortizes, the guys you normally expect. Now all of a sudden you see shifts on three players in every lineup.”

 

While Goin and his team would provide data, in addition to the video work supplied by the team’s director of Major League video, Sean Harlin, the coaching staff would be responsible for deciding the game plan.

 

“Paul and Gardy would have a meeting, talk about who they were going to shift and how they were going to shift,” Goin said. “Then after that meeting they would have an infielders or defenders meeting with Gardy and Molitor and whoever else and then they’d talk about it: Here are the charts, how should we shift him? Step-pull, straight-away, two-steps pull or whatever it is.”

 

It is hard to say if the emphasis on shifting was beneficial to the team’s record in 2014. According to the shift data, the Twins finished in the middle of the pack for hits saved. At the same time, the infield’s overall defensive efficiency took a step back in 2014. In 2013, the Twins’ opponents had a batting average on grounders in play of .235. This year that increased to .258. It is possible that it is, in part, due to that the pitching staff being hit hard or that the team did not position their players in the right spot enough. Consider this, on ground balls in the middle of the diamond, opponents hit .500, the highest in all of baseball.

 

What Goin and his team provides to the coaching staff evolved based on preferences.

 

“Sometimes it starts out with a question from him and then you create some type of report from what that initial conversation was,” Goin said. “‘Oh, that’s great but can we add this or move this?’ And you add a piece that you didn’t think of at the initial conversation. They get a standard package and then different coaches get a few one-off packages that they like on their own. Brunansky and Gardy got a couple and Molitor got a couple. Rick Anderson got hitters, Bruno got pitchers and some of the other coaches got reports too. Gardy got everything.”

 

The Twins’ baseball research department, which started out as a one-man show several years ago, has expanded as the acceptance has increased. In addition to adding coordinator Andrew Ettel, they recently posted for a developer of baseball systems to “develop, deliver, and maintain data driven solutions for analytics and architecture of player information and evaluation systems.” This is more or less a position that has become commonplace within front offices to help create database systems for both readily available statistics like Pitch F/X and proprietary projections.

 

Perhaps most important for the new hire might be working with MLBAM’s new field-tracking system that was installed in a handful of ballparks, including Target Field, this past year. Unlike the Pitch F/X system which was released to the public and allowed hobbyists like Josh Kalk to tinker with the data that ultimately led to his hiring by the Tampa Bay Rays, the new system will be provided to only the teams. One of the reasons this will not be made available for the general public is because each game’s data will be terabytes. MLB will purportedly release the data to all teams prior to the 2015 season, at which point, it will be a race to see which organization can leverage the information to their advantage.

 

There is also the perception that the Twins decision-makers are not interested in or resistant to this kind of information. Both Ryan and Goin say that is not true, but that there is some education required.

 

“I got that in here and I look at it,” said Ryan, gesturing to his computer when asked about his familiarity with Pitch F/X, “but for me to decipher it I have to go to him.”

 

At the basic level, the Twins research department’s role appears to be the storefront of a butcher shop. Ryan does not need to know how the sausage is made, but he has trust in Goin and his staff that he is not receiving tainted meat.

 

“There are things that I need to be educated about that kind of catch my eye, and I've got to make sure I know what the norm is, for sure, and I go to Jack,” Ryan said of the role the research team.

 

****

It’s a piece.

 

That’s the common phrase that the pair offered as a response to a lot of inquiries about the use of stats and analytics when it came to decisions in the front office. In the end, the team admits that it is not a guiding light for the direction of the organization. For the stats community and analytics proponents, that may be an unsatisfying answer. For others, that might strike a good balance.

 

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[Platoon]

The paragraph in the middle of the article about ground ball averages would possibly answer the Escobar/Santana debate raging in DocBauers brain. . Maybe we missed Florimon more than we thought?

[biswrest]

It's hard to envision that the Ryan, Anthony and Gardy take the new statistics and analytic's  that seriously, when they struggle to platoon or for that matter when they give there bench players starts alot of times when they dont have the platoon advantage.  Or when they carry three catchers because they want there backup to have some DH starts.  The Molitor comments in this story is very encouraging, especially if he stays on the staff or his hired as the new manager!

[nicksaviking]

Another great articl Parker, I can't wait to see which sites pick up on this one!

 

The paragraphs discussing Gardy being resistant or having to be convinced to use infield shifts is why this club needs to be careful about selecting a new manager.  After all, is there really a point of sending an analytics guy with the team if the manager is going to drag his feet regarding the suggestions for improvement?

 

For the most part, I don't think these analytics are something you can pick and chose what you want to adhere to.  I think you have to either buy into it or ignore it completely.  You can't begrudgingly use infield shifts but still insist on bringing in a soft tosser from the pen who tries to hit the outside corners. 

[Steven Buhr]

Parker, my recollection is that Pitchf/x is installed in relatively few minor league ballparks. Sometime when you are talking to Jack, I'd be interested in knowing whether the Twins have an interest in seeing all of their affiliates install the system. I would imagine in smaller parks, the camera angle situation may not be ideal, but one would think that, if the information is valuable to collect on MLB players, it would be perhaps even more valuable to have on your minor leaguers.

[Parker Hageman]

Sometime when you are talking to Jack, I'd be interested in knowing whether the Twins have an interest in seeing all of their affiliates install the system.

 

 

When we chatted this spring (or possibly last season) he mentioned that this would be a goal for them. Not sure where it progressed to this year. 

[brvama]

It's hard to envision that the Ryan, Anthony and Gardy take the new statistics and analytic's  that seriously, when they struggle to platoon or for that matter when they give there bench players starts alot of times when they dont have the platoon advantage.  Or when they carry three catchers because they want there backup to have some DH starts.  The Molitor comments in this story is very encouraging, especially if he stays on the staff or his hired as the new manager!

It is only Gardy that has the control on the bold comments and that is why I hope like many others the next manager is willing to incorporate these statistics.  Regarding Ryan, his comments that he uses Goin when necessary indicates to me that he does incorporate statistics into his work.

[brvama]

Parker - really great article.  Can you verify this or not ?  Recently I read that one ML team has no statistical department.  Can't remember the team but Seattle or Arizona come to mind.  That is surprising since there has been so much Twins bashing on how slow and behind they have been in that department.  

 

It sounds like it was Gardy and not his coaches that was reluctant.  IMO the next manager will readily use statistics.

[tobi0040]

Parker - really great article.  Can you verify this or not ?  Recently I read that one ML team has no statistical department.  Can't remember the team but Seattle or Arizona come to mind.  That is surprising since there has been so much Twins bashing on how slow and behind they have been in that department.  

 

It sounds like it was Gardy and not his coaches that was reluctant.  IMO the next manager will readily use statistics.

 

That is the hope. At every turn Gardy either does not use them or in the case of shifting, reluctantly went along with it after some fighting. 

 

I am also encouraged by a new manager who is a believer. 

[jjswol]

Yesterday I attended part 3 of a 4 part Wayzata community education class called "Moneyball, Sabermerics, and the Science of Chance. At the session yesterday we had a guest speaker for the entire 1 1/2 hours and it was Andrew Ettel from the Twins Baseball Research department. It was an enjoyable session and the time went by all too quickly. Andrew did a nice presentation on how the Twins employ sabermetrics and answered many questions from the class members. It as a fun session and Andrew did a very nice job.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't care if they brag about it or not. I care that they use all avenues to get better at their jobs, and that outcomes improve. I care that the FO strategy and on field tactics are aligned. I care that people are open to new ideas, and implement the ones that make sense in the context they are in.

 

I also think they should, from a PR perspective, be more open about that approach, but I don't care if they do that.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

When we chatted this spring (or possibly last season) he mentioned that this would be a goal for them. Not sure where it progressed to this year. 

Hopefully the Twins didn't spend too much on the New Britain system this year...

[Seth Stohs]

Yesterday I attended part 3 of a 4 part Wayzata community education class called "Moneyball, Sabermerics, and the Science of Chance. At the session yesterday we had a guest speaker for the entire 1 1/2 hours and it was Andrew Ettel from the Twins Baseball Research department. It was an enjoyable session and the time went by all too quickly. Andrew did a nice presentation on how the Twins employ sabermetrics and answered many questions from the class members. It as a fun session and Andrew did a very nice job.

 

This is awesome!!! I wonder how frequent these types of sessions are, and if we can promote them for TD readers and such.

[Seth Stohs]

I also think they should, from a PR perspective, be more open about that approach, but I don't care if they do that.

 

There is no value in them doing that. They talked to Parker and they talk about shifts and stuff like this when asked, but they shouldn't get into the details.  I do agree that the alignment would/will be nice. Parker showed the number of shifts that were used year-to-year. There is work being done, and that's what I want to see. 

 

Jack is good. He's really smart and I know he takes this stuff very seriously. Terry Ryan is very smart as well, and he knows that this information is important. As long as Jack is talking to Terry, and coaches and stuff, and the information is being translated, that's all we can ask. I have no doubt in my mind. That stuff happens. 

[tobi0040]

There is no value in them doing that. They talked to Parker and they talk about shifts and stuff like this when asked, but they shouldn't get into the details.  I do agree that the alignment would/will be nice. Parker showed the number of shifts that were used year-to-year. There is work being done, and that's what I want to see. 

 

Jack is good. He's really smart and I know he takes this stuff very seriously. Terry Ryan is very smart as well, and he knows that this information is important. As long as Jack is talking to Terry, and coaches and stuff, and the information is being translated, that's all we can ask. I have no doubt in my mind. That stuff happens. 

 

Completely agree.  Look up James Simons.  A quant hedge fund manager that has had a legendary run for many years.  He is a billionaire and the lengths he goes through with his employees and technology to keep his secrets proprietary are legendary.  It really makes no sense to do a bunch of work and then give it way to people because you want a good interview.

[Mike Sixel]

There is no value in them doing that. They talked to Parker and they talk about shifts and stuff like this when asked, but they shouldn't get into the details.  I do agree that the alignment would/will be nice. Parker showed the number of shifts that were used year-to-year. There is work being done, and that's what I want to see. 

 

Jack is good. He's really smart and I know he takes this stuff very seriously. Terry Ryan is very smart as well, and he knows that this information is important. As long as Jack is talking to Terry, and coaches and stuff, and the information is being translated, that's all we can ask. I have no doubt in my mind. That stuff happens. 

 

We'll disagree. There is great value (in ticket sales and whatnot), imo, in increasing the confidence in fans they are exploring every option to get better. 

 

Getting rid of the belief that they are behind on adopting stats would help with that.

 

Like I said though, I don't care if they do it. I think it would help them with the public if they talked about the process (not any secrets or whatnot) more/differently.

[nicksaviking]

It is only Gardy that has the control on the bold comments and that is why I hope like many others the next manager is willing to incorporate these statistics.  Regarding Ryan, his comments that he uses Goin when necessary indicates to me that he does incorporate statistics into his work.

 

With Ryan's previous comments about how he uses Goin when necessary, I actually have concerns.  His comments sounded to me that he uses Goin when Goin tells him something he likes or agrees with.  I don't think this half-measured approach will work; I think you need to be willing to commit to it even when it gives you data you don't want to hear.

Edited October 10, 2014 by nicksaviking

[Otto von Ballpark]

Jack is good. He's really smart and I know he takes this stuff very seriously. Terry Ryan is very smart as well, and he knows that this information is important. As long as Jack is talking to Terry, and coaches and stuff, and the information is being translated, that's all we can ask. I have no doubt in my mind. That stuff happens. 

I guess this is your usual "he'll make the adjustments and be OK" line about players, translated for front office personnel?

[drjim]

I much prefer they keep what they are doing secret. If for no other reason than the comedy of reading people on boards like this (and even national writers) continue to slam the Twins over something they really have no reference for.

 

That, and keeping it secret is what the Cardinals would do.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

WWJockettyD?

[tobi0040]

I much prefer they keep what they are doing secret. If for no other reason than the comedy of reading people on boards like this (and even national writers) continue to slam the Twins over something they really have no reference for.

 

That, and keeping it secret is what the Cardinals would do.

 

I agree. This Cardinals thing is funny, like a new WWJD

[tobi0040]

I much prefer they keep what they are doing secret. If for no other reason than the comedy of reading people on boards like this (and even national writers) continue to slam the Twins over something they really have no reference for.

 

That, and keeping it secret is what the Cardinals would do.

 

BTW, this franchise did offer Pujols 10 years and $220M.  Which would have been a terrible deal from the day it was signed.  They really got lucky.

[Brandon]

I just hope this means we can all agree that Terry Ryan doesn't rely on his abacus as much as he used to for statistical analysis.

[mbents]

Can you verify this or not ?  Recently I read that one ML team has no statistical department.  Can't remember the team but Seattle or Arizona come to mind.

 

Supposedly Jack Zduriencik in Seattle is a big advanced metrics guy (although he's also been accused of misrepresenting that), so I'd be surprised if Seattle has no statistics department. Josh Byrnes was a big sabermetrics guy when he was Arizona's GM, but then Kevin Towers was the opposite and was looking for "gritty" players, and completely getting rid of an analytics department seems like something Towers would have done. That being said, as recently as 2012, the Diamondbacks were considered a "Highly Analytical Organization":

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2012-sabermetric-teams-the-market-for-saber-players/

 

My guess is that there's no way to know for certain if a team does not have a statistical department unless they come right out and say that they don't. 

[Thegrin]

Good for Goins   Hurray for the mushroom method..."Keep us in the dark and feed us sh*t."  The less we know the less likely we are to publish something that could be harmful to the Twins. 

[Thrylos]

There are analytics, and there are analytics.   Here is an example:  Last season Pelfrey had a 2 mph velocity drop in his pitches vs 2013 and his release point was all over the place.  That spells trouble and trouble happened.  Either the Twins do not get into this type of stuff or instead of shorting RBI or ERA columns, they look into "matchup" and situational analytics, which are based on non-significant sample sizes.  Or something.   Pretty sure that Andy was more interested in his clicker than at this pitchers release points, velocities and mechanics.  Ask the Vanimal.  Hope the next Twins' manager and coaches are aware of those data points and seek them.

[Paul Pleiss]

"Consider this, on ground balls in the middle of the diamond, opponents hit .500, the highest in all of baseball."

 

This is going to give me nightmares all off-season.

[NotTorii]

Ha!  The only reasomm they won't tip their SABRmetrics plan is because there is none!

[JB_Iowa]

This is basically how I felt the Twins would come to the Sabermetrics altar.  Ryan has faith in Goin because Jack started as TR's admin asst but Goin still has to be cautious about what he can push on the field staff.

 

It will be interesting to see how this develops with a new manager. 

[alskntwnsfn]

Well JB, if this is development, I'd say the pace is glacial. 

 

I had to chuckle reading really hardcore fans so happy to see the team essentially say no comment to the question, "are you doing any in-depth analysis?" This isn't the A's or the Cardinals here, the Twins have been one of the worst teams in the league for the last 3 years. 

 

The poster who mentioned the quant hedge fund manager was (comedic) gold. Of course he wouldn't give away his model, it works! Why are the Twins guarding their methods so closely? C'mon, their nickname with the local media is 'dumpster fire.' Ok, I'm being a little glib, of course we don't want to tell the opposition how we prepare to beat them (exactly). However, this team has been TERRIBLE and spent a lot of money last offseason but got the same result this year. So, yeah, I think it's time to show your work a bit. 

 

But the issue of disclosure is not on Jack, that's on TR. Jack can't talk about what TR doesn't allow him to. However, compare the piece on the Pirates (who have been a very good team in maximizing talent) versus this one on the Twins (who have really seen poor returns on free agent investment and done poorly on trades/etc in recent years). It says a lot.