Sano to the Outfield

[drjim]

What do you suppose Ryan's response would have been a year ago if he had been asked what the chances were that Kennys Vargas would be with the Twins in 2014?

 

Or Danny Santana

[jay]

Mike - I get your point... but if you apply that approach all the time, you're going to have a roster full of corner OFs and 1Bs. Those positions almost always have a good bat. You'll never have an impact bat anywhere else. Those other positions require an investment in development time. That can require being patient with the player, even if you think his bat might play sooner.

[Mike Sixel]

Where did I say all the time? Sano is an elite bat, they should treat him as an elite bat. No place, ever, not once, did I say do that all the time.

 

I'm cool waiting a month or two, but what if he's bombing 30 HRs (on pace), but his glove isn't ready all year. Do you just leave him in AAA until his glove is ready? What is it isn't ready ever? When do you move him?

[tobi0040]

From the article you linked:

 

"We're going to take the rigor and the pressures of learning the position, the difficult position of catcher, away from him," Rizzo said, "and really let him concentrate on the offensive part of the game and let his athleticism take over as an outfielder."

 

In other words, stop worrying about positional value, and get his bat up ASAP.

 

I highly doubt the Twins or many other teams would have had Harper catching, or that it would have substaintially delayed him if they did.

 

Mauer came up at 20.  Harper came up at 19 and was six months younger when he was drafted.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I stand corrected. His tone changed since the call a few days prior.  But I don't see any way he is NOT in the big leagues next year.  This could be management trying to lower the bar. Similar to St. Peters comments earlier.  Or we maybe parsing this WAY too much

I think they might be viewing Sano 2015 like they view Meyer 2014.  Had yet to play above AA, recent health concerns, still has things to learn or work on in the minors.

 

Still, a little different for a position player than a pitcher.  I would be a little surprised if Sano didn't even warrant a September 2015 call-up, given he's going on the 40-man roster this winter, but you never know.  Maybe TR doesn't consider a September call-up to honor the spirit of the question.

[Otto von Ballpark]

What do you suppose Ryan's response would have been a year ago if he had been asked what the chances were that Kennys Vargas would be with the Twins in 2014?

I don't know, but Vargas had yet to play above A-ball at the time and was never considered a top prospect in the league (undrafted free agent!).

 

But the fact that Vargas was on the 40-man roster and was set to open the year in AA suggested he could very easily get a cup of coffee at some point during the year.  Santana exceeded that same criteria last year too.  Sano should meet or exceed it next year as well.

[Mike Sixel]

I highly doubt the Twins or many other teams would have had Harper catching, or that it would have substaintially delayed him if they did.

 

Mauer came up at 20.  Harper came up at 19 and was six months younger when he was drafted.

 

I agree, but the argument ON THIS THREAD reads:

 

Sano should stay at 3B and learn the position in AAA, because he's more valuable there (for some undetermined time)

 

vs.

 

Sano should stay at 3B for a month or two in AAA, but if his bat is ready and glove isn't, he should come up and play LF or RF.

 

The thread is arguing how long Sano should be in AAA if his bat is ready, but glove isn't at 3B. I'm arguing that BASED ON THIS THREAD, Harper would still be in AA learning to catch, if the posters here had their way.

[ALessKosherScott]

I don't think it's easy to "fail" as a left fielder though...if he hits you live with whatever level of defense he gives you. I would also keep first base in mind as his potential ultimate position when Mauer is gone. The other aspect of this is, if he "fails" as a left fielder, there probably was little chance he was going to be a good third baseman anyway.

 

IMO, it probably comes down to a Cabrera situation with the Marlins or if you want to go old school a Killebrew situation back in the 60s where Sano is less of a disaster at third in compared to being in left field. With a flyball pitching staff, a statue will hurt you more in left field than at third. Or, it could be an Albert Pujols situation where he proves more valuable in left than third until he eventually slides to first.

 

I don't think it really matters much this year anyway. Plouffe is your major league third baseman, and you really don't want to use Sano there coming off elbow surgery anyway unless its an emergency. But if Plouffe regresses and Sano isn't a left fielder, you can't close the door on it. Sano isn't going to have a shelf full of gold gloves when its all said and done. But his power seems pretty tailor made for Target Field, so you've got to find a space for him somewhere until Mauer retires.

[TheLeviathan]

From the article you linked:

 

"We're going to take the rigor and the pressures of learning the position, the difficult position of catcher, away from him," Rizzo said, "and really let him concentrate on the offensive part of the game and let his athleticism take over as an outfielder."

 

In other words, stop worrying about positional value, and get his bat up ASAP.

 

And now you have a mediocre hitter and outfielder who has largely failed to live up to expectations.  Patience is a virtue with prospects and there is no one right way to do it.

 

The people who want things rushed should consider many of the recent examples of how that has failed.  It works both ways, but let's keep that in mind.

[tobi0040]

I agree, but the argument ON THIS THREAD reads:

 

Sano should stay at 3B and learn the position in AAA, because he's more valuable there (for some undetermined time)

 

vs.

 

Sano should stay at 3B for a month or two in AAA, but if his bat is ready and glove isn't, he should come up and play LF or RF.

 

The thread is arguing how long Sano should be in AAA if his bat is ready, but glove isn't at 3B. I'm arguing that BASED ON THIS THREAD, Harper would still be in AA learning to catch, if the posters here had their way.

 

I think this argument is taking an extreme position.  The Twins didn't have a need at catcher when Mauer forced his way up.  But he was an extreme talent and we made way for him.  Sano will force his way here, either through a Plouffe trade or a move to LF if we deem that is the best long term move.  He won't be down in AAA for a year or two.  It won't happen.

[TheLeviathan]

Absolutely, with that caveat that if Sano's bat is ready but his glove isn't, working him into MLB at the less-demanding LF position with spot starts at 3B isn't a terrible idea. If he starts to show competency at 3B, then move him there and do whatever with Plouffe. Trevor is a nice player to have around but he can't hinder the progress of a guy like Sano.

 

I don't think he'll get better at 3B by playing LF.  It took Plouffe time and reps to get better and I think that's true for 99% of players.  

 

If Sano's bat is ready than he should be worked into 3B at the major league level.   That's where good coaching can make a big difference.  But I wouldn't play him half or more of his starts out of position just for his bat, that's overcomplicating an already difficult task of adjusting to the big leagues.

[TheLeviathan]

I agree, but the argument ON THIS THREAD reads:

 

Sano should stay at 3B and learn the position in AAA, because he's more valuable there (for some undetermined time)

 

vs.

 

Sano should stay at 3B for a month or two in AAA, but if his bat is ready and glove isn't, he should come up and play LF or RF.

 

The thread is arguing how long Sano should be in AAA if his bat is ready, but glove isn't at 3B. I'm arguing that BASED ON THIS THREAD, Harper would still be in AA learning to catch, if the posters here had their way.

 

Except that's not the argument.  Some people are saying he's a temporary LF and a permanent 3B, whereas Harper became a permanent OF and not a catcher, so what you lay out here isn't accurate.

 

You can't say "play him in LF, but I'm still holding on to him as a 3B" and make these kinds of arguments.  If he's a 3B, then he needs to stay at 3B until you determine he doesn't fit the position any more.  Bouncing him around at this stage of his development is just not smart.

[Mike Sixel]

And now you have a mediocre hitter and outfielder who has largely failed to live up to expectations.  Patience is a virtue with prospects and there is no one right way to do it.

 

The people who want things rushed should consider many of the recent examples of how that has failed.  It works both ways, but let's keep that in mind.

 

Mediocre hitter? 

 

You might want to double check Fangraphs......

 

As a 20 year old, he put up 4.4 WAR

As a 21 year old, he put up 3.8

 

While injured this year, he put up 1.3....this year was not pretty (but all his value come from offense, and had terrible defense this year). But the first two years were. It is a myth that Harper is not a good to very good baseball player, as a 22 year old. Given how everyone here says that Twins players will get better as they go from 22 to 27......it is hard to see how Harper is not around a 4 or better WAR player in healthy years for years to come.

[Physics Guy]

Except that's not the argument.  Some people are saying he's a temporary LF and a permanent 3B, whereas Harper became a permanent OF and not a catcher, so what you lay out here isn't accurate.

 

You can't say "play him in LF, but I'm still holding on to him as a 3B" and make these kinds of arguments.  If he's a 3B, then he needs to stay at 3B until you determine he doesn't fit the position any more.  Bouncing him around at this stage of his development is just not smart.

It worked fine for Cabrera.  The Nats did it with Rendon.  Why can't it work?  I see Sano progressing defensively much like Cabrera.  He'll be athletic enough to play OF for a year or two.  Be serviceable at 3B for a few years and then move to 1B. 

 

Plouffe didn't start at 3B.  He moved around until Valencia bombed out and we had a need at 3B.  He's developed into a decent 3B after making it to the majors and bouncing around.  I don't see why it's a problem.  Yes, ideally 3B would be open when Sano is ready and we slot him in.  When was the last season things were ideal.  I'm starting to second guess my stance on Santana also.  I was pushing for Santana to be at SS, but now I'm reconsidering.  If we don't pick up anybody, I might suggest having Hicks in CF, Escobar at SS and Santana in LF.  Schaefer could be worked into the mix as needed.  I think I would be OK with it until one of those proved they didn't deserve their spot. 

[Mike Sixel]

Except that's not the argument.  Some people are saying he's a temporary LF and a permanent 3B, whereas Harper became a permanent OF and not a catcher, so what you lay out here isn't accurate.

 

You can't say "play him in LF, but I'm still holding on to him as a 3B" and make these kinds of arguments.  If he's a 3B, then he needs to stay at 3B until you determine he doesn't fit the position any more.  Bouncing him around at this stage of his development is just not smart.

Fine.

 

forget Harper...........

 

How long does he sit in AAA, learning 3B, if he's not getting it? If he's bombing away, and not fielding, I move him in 2 months.

[jay]

Where did I say all the time? Sano is an elite bat, they should treat him as an elite bat. No place, ever, not once, did I say do that all the time.

 

I'm cool waiting a month or two, but what if he's bombing 30 HRs (on pace), but his glove isn't ready all year. Do you just leave him in AAA until his glove is ready? What is it isn't ready ever? When do you move him?

I know you didn't say all the time. The point was that guys with his type of bat that can stick somewhere other than the corner OF/1B can be even more valuable if that lets you get another big bat in one of those spots.

 

The questions you're asking are the right ones. It's pretty clear the Twins don't see him up to start the year. I agree that the Twins need to keep an open mind on how to get him up to MLB, but I dont think we can start answering those questions until a few months are in the books.

[Mike Sixel]

I know you didn't say all the time. The point was that guys with his type of bat that can stick somewhere other than the corner OF/1B can be even more valuable if that lets you get another big bat in one of those spots.

 

The questions you're asking are the right ones. It's pretty clear the Twins don't see him up to start the year. I agree that the Twins need to keep an open mind on how to get him up to MLB, but I dont think we can start answering those questions until a few months are in the books.

 

Which is what I said in my first, and every post, in this thread since, I think.....

[jay]

... and even then the answers to those questions are going to be quite contentious. Should be fun for TD...

[TheLeviathan]

While injured this year, he put up 1.3....this year was not pretty (but all his value come from offense, and had terrible defense this year). But the first two years were. It is a myth that Harper is not a good to very good baseball player, as a 22 year old. Given how everyone here says that Twins players will get better as they go from 22 to 27......it is hard to see how Harper is not around a 4 or better WAR player in healthy years for years to come.

 

Using WAR to argue he's a good hitter seems like a bad way to start considering WAR is heavily influenced by defense.  He's underwhelmed as his 111 OPS+ tends to show.

 

I didn't say he was a bad player, but he's a poor example for what you're arguing.

 

And sorry, to answer your question - I'm ok with calling him up after two months to play the position you envision him playing.  If that's LF for good - fine.  If it's 3B - fine.  I don't just plug him into whatever "open" spot there is just to get his bat in the lineup.  That's doing a disservice on a number of levels.  

[TheLeviathan]

It worked fine for Cabrera.  The Nats did it with Rendon.  Why can't it work?  I see Sano progressing defensively much like Cabrera.  He'll be athletic enough to play OF for a year or two.  Be serviceable at 3B for a few years and then move to 1B. 

 

Plouffe didn't start at 3B.  He moved around until Valencia bombed out and we had a need at 3B.  He's developed into a decent 3B after making it to the majors and bouncing around.  I don't see why it's a problem.  Yes, ideally 3B would be open when Sano is ready and we slot him in.  When was the last season things were ideal.  I'm starting to second guess my stance on Santana also.  I was pushing for Santana to be at SS, but now I'm reconsidering.  If we don't pick up anybody, I might suggest having Hicks in CF, Escobar at SS and Santana in LF.  Schaefer could be worked into the mix as needed.  I think I would be OK with it until one of those proved they didn't deserve their spot. 

 

The part you're not recognizing is the "developed" part.  Plouffe did develop as a 3B because he had opportunity to do so.  Sano playing LF doesn't make him a better 3B, quite likely the opposite.

[drjim]

Fine.

 

forget Harper...........

 

How long does he sit in AAA, learning 3B, if he's not getting it? If he's bombing away, and not fielding, I move him in 2 months.

 

Probably a good idea. Comparing Sano, even though he is a very good prospect, to the best pure hitting prospect in a generation probably doesn't lead to much fruit. 

[Mike Sixel]

I don't want to argue about the value of Harper....but he went from 60th in offensive WAR to 31st in offensive WAR (in all of baseball) from a 20 year old to a 21 year old....and was not that good this year.

 

If the 31st best hitter in all of baseball, as a 21 year old, isn't good enough to be considered worth being in the majors, and not in AA learning to catch, then we probably won't agree on the value of Bryce Harper.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't want to argue about the value of Harper....but he went from 60th in offensive WAR to 31st in offensive WAR (in all of baseball) from a 20 year old to a 21 year old....and was not that good this year.

 

If the 31st best hitter in all of baseball, as a 21 year old, isn't good enough to be considered worth being in the majors, and not in AA learning to catch, then we probably won't agree on the value of Bryce Harper.

 

That's all fine, but the comparison points of these two players are basically non-existent.  So using him as a guide for what to do with Sano doesn't make much sense to me.

[USAFChief]

That's all fine, but the comparison points of these two players are basically non-existent.  So using him as a guide for what to do with Sano doesn't make much sense to me.

how about Baltimore deciding getting Machado to the big leagues was worth moving him off SS? That might be comparable?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Using WAR to argue he's a good hitter seems like a bad way to start considering WAR is heavily influenced by defense.  He's underwhelmed as his 111 OPS+ tends to show.

121 career OPS+, in almost 1500 PA, all before his 22nd birthday.  125 career wRC+.  Positive baserunning value.  Basically average or better fielding.

 

I have no idea what we're debating, but Harper's pretty good.

[drjim]

121 career OPS+, in almost 1500 PA, all before his 22nd birthday.  125 career wRC+.  Positive baserunning value.  Basically average or better fielding.

 

I have no idea what we're debating, but Harper's pretty good.

 

Indeed he is. Was dinged up a little but no reason he won't be a beast going forward.

[70charger]

Or we maybe parsing this WAY too much

 

http://i.imgur.com/5bN9AFT.jpg

[Kelly Vance]

In my article proposing Sano and Buxton open the season in Minnesota (which has been widely criticized, slashed, spit upon, kicked, bludgeoned and generally trashed), I parenthetically indicated that I was not convinced that Sano moving to the OF and keeping Plouffe at 3B wouldn't be a better decision than the reverse option. So, I was pleased to hear that the GM was open to considering that arrangement, too. An open mind is a positive thing.

 

Sometimes, I feel like people envision Sano as some kind of lumbering giant. Maybe he'll become that as he gets older, but right now he's extremely athletic. You don't know if he can judge a line drive, run it down and catch it until you put him out there and hit the ball to him a few hundred times, but I think it's worth the effort to find out.

Jim, I have been saying this for months. Sano is younger and more mobile, I think. And his hitting will keep him in the lineup. Add Bux in CF and we can play Danny at his natural SS position.  This would be  a good offensive lineup and better defensively than last year. It also frees up money for a FA SP.

[TheLeviathan]

how about Baltimore deciding getting Machado to the big leagues was worth moving him off SS? That might be comparable?

 

I'm cool with that, but it looks like he's no longer a SS.  So if Sano is a permanent LF....then that's fine with me.  I just don't want him to be a LF for four months and then we throw him at 3B again.  Let him be what he's going to be.  If you're going to move anyone around, move Plouffe.

[drjim]

I'm cool with that, but it looks like he's no longer a SS.  So if Sano is a permanent LF....then that's fine with me.  I just don't want him to be a LF for four months and then we throw him at 3B again.  Let him be what he's going to be.  If you're going to move anyone around, move Plouffe.

 

I agree with this. I think once Sano is moved from 3B to the OF he isn't going back (though will probably eventually end up at 1B). Chances are he doesn't stick at 3B either way, but is it worth it to have his bat in the lineup for a couple extra months next season to prevent the team from finding out?

 

I would start the season with Sano at 3B in AA  Then you can see if his bat forces the issue before his glove is ready, then you decide. I don't think we should automatically assume, despite articles posted on this site, ill advised comparisons to Bryce Harper or transitive arguments referencing Vargas, that after missing a a full year of development he can jump right into the bigs with his bat