Sano to the Outfield

[Riverbrian]

Disclaimer: I have no idea what Sano can do defensively... So.. I'm not comfortable calling him a 3B... OF or DH.

 

But... I'm comfortable offering an opinion on what the Twins should do from a team management standpoint with the returning position players.

 

In my opinion... The new manager is going to be key because the Twins are approaching "Good Problem to Have" territory.

 

We will have options and the next manager needs to know how to optimize ala Joe Maddon. Gardy tended to lock in and that isn't going to work.

 

Plouffe needs to play both 3B and OF in 2015 in prep for Sano's arrival. Santana can start at CF but he will need to play more SS in prep for Buxtons arrival. Escobar needs to start at SS and play some 3B and 2B in prep for Santana playing more SS in prep for Buxtons arrival. Vargas needs to play 1B in prep for Mauers next two month injury.

 

The new manager has to have this Maddon type sense with no old school thought of playing this guy at the same position everyday.

 

Having 13 players on the roster who can legitimately play is a good problem to have. Having a Zobrist type or two or three is a good problem to have. It also allows you to matchup against anything.

 

Please bring in a manager with this Maddon sensibility.

 

Back to Sano... If he can hit like everyone says he can. He's going to eventually claim a job wherever he is placed. So to me... You place him where he performs best in the field. Plouffe should not be a consideration because that would be short sighted.

[Mike Sixel]

Bryan Harper was a catcher, moved to the OF so they could get him up earlier, not because he could never catch......that's how teams win. They get players to the majors. Teams don't win many MLB games played in the minor league system.

[USAFChief]

The question is if he fails do you move him back to third or does he become a 23-year-old DH?

i think that's a very insightful and pertinent question.

 

My guess is, losing (more) time developing as a third baseman would be very difficult to overcome.

 

I don't think it's easy to "fail" as a left fielder though...if he hits you live with whatever level of defense he gives you. I would also keep first base in mind as his potential ultimate position when Mauer is gone. The other aspect of this is, if he "fails" as a left fielder, there probably was little chance he was going to be a good third baseman anyway.

[Lazarus]

I see this as a couple of separate issues.  Sano is being counted on to be a cornerstone of this franchise for the next 10 years - put him wherever you feel he may be most successful at each stage of his career.

 

The Twins are a couple of years away from being a serious contender.  Plouffe is above average on a poor team, but I see him as middle-of-the-pack on a decent team.  Can't see him as a cornerstone player in a couple of years when he is 30+ and hitting his decline years.  Trade him now while his value is high rather than wait to trade him when he reaches his inevitable decline.  Want to be more like St. Louis?  This would be one way.

[tobi0040]

 

The Twins are a couple of years away from being a serious contender.  Plouffe is above average on a poor team, but I see him as middle-of-the-pack on a decent team.  Can't see him as a cornerstone player in a couple of years when he is 30+ and hitting his decline years.  Trade him now while his value is high rather than wait to trade him when he reaches his inevitable decline.  Want to be more like St. Louis?  This would be one way.

 

According to baseball reference, Plouffe had a WAR of 3.9 this year.  Of the 34 position players on the four remaining teams, only 7 of those 34 have a higher WAR.

 

On this St. Louis Cardinals team we so desperately need to emulate, only Johnny Peralta has a higher WAR among position players.

 

Here is the full list:

 

Cain 5

Gordon 6.6

Cruz 4.7

Jones 4.9

Pearce 6

Posey 5.2

Peralta 5.8

 

Unless we get a pitcher that is a difference maker, I am keeping Trevor Plouffe.

[Shane Wahl]

In my article proposing Sano and Buxton open the season in Minnesota (which has been widely criticized, slashed, spit upon, kicked, bludgeoned and generally trashed), I parenthetically indicated that I was not convinced that Sano moving to the OF and keeping Plouffe at 3B wouldn't be a better decision than the reverse option. So, I was pleased to hear that the GM was open to considering that arrangement, too. An open mind is a positive thing.

 

Sometimes, I feel like people envision Sano as some kind of lumbering giant. Maybe he'll become that as he gets older, but right now he's extremely athletic. You don't know if he can judge a line drive, run it down and catch it until you put him out there and hit the ball to him a few hundred times, but I think it's worth the effort to find out.

Not by me! I think you are generally correct, though I just was cautious about Buxton for a tad bit . . . just to get him a little bit of AA ball. Anyway, I don't know how Sano does upon switching from a position he has now practiced and trained for after moving from another infield position. And then . . . the throwing is all different and it does make me a bit weary after TJ surgery.

 

That said, it is clear that Sano is a better athlete than Plouffe and the latter has just become a good enough defensive third baseman. LF is the clear position for Sano if that is the way to go.

 

 

[Shane Wahl]

All this said, I think we will end up seeing some two of the following traded to make for *any* Sano addition: Plouffe, Vargas, Arcia, Pinto, Hicks (and Parmelee, Schafer etc. dealt with somehow). The roster doesn't work out so well for a rebuilding team to have all of them.

[Linus]

Yeah, I was hoping the discussion was merely thinking about temporarily putting less stress on his elbow.

 

If you move Sano from 3B to the OF, wouldn't that signifiy the end of Arcia?  I don't see this team fielding those two both as corner OF, but I'm nowhere close to being done with Arcia myself.  I think his bat has way too much potential.

I agree with this completely.  Vargas is our DH, so they need to figure out a way to make it work with Arcia in right.  This means they likely cannot have a top notch defensive outfield with Sano in left.  Leave him at 3rd and trade Plouffe while his value is high.

[tobi0040]

All this said, I think we will end up seeing some two of the following traded to make for *any* Sano addition: Plouffe, Vargas, Arcia, Pinto, Hicks (and Parmelee, Schafer etc. dealt with somehow). The roster doesn't work out so well for a rebuilding team to have all of them.

 

definitely a log jam of sorts.  I think Pinto ends up being moved/cut anyway.  He isn't going to catch here and he isn't going to hit enough anywhere else.

 

And I think Arcia and Vargas may be in competion for the DH role. 

[h2oface]

Escobar is the established vet at shortstop. Santana plays at whatever position (CF)  is available until he beats out Escobar.

 

Personally, I have a much longer criteria to determine an "established vet" than one year in a fill in arrangement.  Escobar is in no way an established vet in my book yet.  I hope Santana gets the job immediately if not sooner, and well before he forgets how to play shortstop.  A new manager will likely find it reasonable to play the players in position instead of out of position.

[Halsey Hall]

Good grief!!!!!  Sano stays at 3rd.  Get rid of Plouffe.  He and Willingham in a foot race would end up in a tie.  If so many TD posters think Plouffe is that great, maybe someone else in the baseball world also does, and would take him.

[jay]

The new manager has to have this Maddon type sense with no old school thought of playing this guy at the same position everyday.

 

Having 13 players on the roster who can legitimately play is a good problem to have. Having a Zobrist type or two or three is a good problem to have. It also allows you to matchup against anything.

 

Yes.  This strategy has also been employed extensively by the A's.  Positional flexibility has positive value!

[tobi0040]

Yes.  This strategy has also been employed extensively by the A's.  Positional flexibility has positive value!

 

Yeah, we could potentially have a roster this year where you don't have a huge difference between starters and bench players.  So platooning and mixing them in makes a ton of sense. I am encouraged about the comments Terry made about SABR type analytics for our next manager.

[Seth Stohs]

Plouffe wasn't projected to look like this guy by the time he was in his prime:

 

http://www.incrediblehulk.me/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Capture.jpg

 

 

Sano's thighs are much bigger than this guy's!

[James Richter]

If you haven't already, I recommend this piece from Fangraphs about the Twins' system:

 

www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-minnesota-twins/

 

Their scouting report on Sano - based on the way he was playing in 2013 - lists his upside as fringe-average D at 3B with a plus arm. Good hands, but a weak first step. Plouffe is living proof that someone can improve their defense even deep into their 20s, but scouts are paid to project what is likely, not what's possible. I think it's still early to determine that Sano can't improve upon his defense, and he should get all of 2015 to work at it. But even if he's no more than a fringe-average defender, I could live with that if the bat is as good as advertised.

 

As well as Plouffe played in 2014, given his age I don't see him as a long-term building block. But, for 2015 at least, I agree that the 3B job is his until Sano takes it from him.

 

[jay]

Sounds like Plouffe is in line to win some awards as the most underappreciated Twin. 

 

What'd that guy do wrong?  Not live up to hitting 18 homers every month and half like in 2012?

[HitInAPinch]

This is the point I always try to make, and part of the reason that I do think that he can stick at third base. First and foremost, none of us saw him throughout 2014, so we don't know where he's at. At spring training, he was 6-4, 258 pounds. Sounds big, and it is, but he isn't the plodding type that I think many envision. He's not Kennys Vargas out there. I've seen him score from first on a double, and he really gets going. I'd compare him to Michael Cuddyer, who wasn't fast, and it took him a while to get going, but once he started, he could move pretty well. 

 

I also will say this, I think that he is athletic enough to play the outfield. As you mention though, it's some of the non-routine types of plays that he hasn't seen often that would be the concern. 

 

But, Plouffe took a major step forward defensively in 2014, and some with the bat. He can play the position as well. He just doesn't have Sano's arm.

I've seen Sano's weight all over the place:  214, 234 and now you say 258.  If he's 214, then OF would be an option.  At 234 or 258 I'm thinking of Greg Luzinski.   :-)

 

However, Sano's destination next year will be Double A ball.  Plouffe's defense was better this year, but his offense is mediocre.

[HitInAPinch]

All this said, I think we will end up seeing some two of the following traded to make for *any* Sano addition: Plouffe, Vargas, Arcia, Pinto, Hicks (and Parmelee, Schafer etc. dealt with somehow). The roster doesn't work out so well for a rebuilding team to have all of them.

 

definitely a log jam of sorts.  I think Pinto ends up being moved/cut anyway.  He isn't going to catch here and he isn't going to hit enough anywhere else.

 

And I think Arcia and Vargas may be in competion for the DH role. 

The 1st base/DH candidates are piling up.  Parmelee needs regular AB's if they are going to keep him.  He's proven that.  Pinto is in the same category.   Vargas seems to hit better when DH'ing [and has a buddy in David Ortiz to mentor him].  If Arcia keeps having problems fielding, he might be in the DH role, too.  However, he started in the bigs at age 22, so give him a break.  He's got big time power and Bruno seemed to be straightening him out at the end of the year.  Hicks and Schaefer?  Give me a break.  Sano will be off to the minors to get in baseball shape, so get used to Plouffe at 3B.

[tobi0040]

Sounds like Plouffe is in line to win some awards as the most underappreciated Twin. 

 

What'd that guy do wrong?  Not live up to hitting 18 homers every month and half like in 2012?

 

Yeah, he would have the second most WAR on 2 of the 4 teams still playing (of offensive players).  3rd on one and 4th on the other.  But most wouid like to see him traded because he is not a starter on a good team.  And nobody is saying we are going to get a top pitcher for him....

[tobi0040]

The 1st base/DH candidates are piling up.  Parmelee needs regular AB's if they are going to keep him.  He's proven that.  Pinto is in the same category.   Vargas seems to hit better when DH'ing [and has a buddy in David Ortiz to mentor him].  If Arcia keeps having problems fielding, he might be in the DH role, too.  However, he started in the bigs at age 22, so give him a break.  He's got big time power and Bruno seemed to be straightening him out at the end of the year.  Hicks and Schaefer?  Give me a break.  Sano will be off to the minors to get in baseball shape, so get used to Plouffe at 3B.

 

hopefully the Parmelee boat has sailed.  It will be nice to have a new coach take a look at Pinto the catcher.

[KGB]

Detroit did okay with Cabrera at 3rd before having to move him to first. Why not keep Sano at 3rd and move Plouffe for an actual outfielder. We do not have to just keep the same roster. Then Sano can move to 1st when Mauer is done. We have to many players at the same position so time to change the roster mix.

[DJL44]

Parmelee needs regular AB's if they are going to keep him.  He's proven that.

 

Giving Parmelee regular ABs is a waste of time. He's proven that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, he would have the second most WAR on 2 of the 4 teams still playing (of offensive players).  3rd on one and 4th on the other.  But most wouid like to see him traded because he is not a starter on a good team.  And nobody is saying we are going to get a top pitcher for him....

Of course, Plouffe accumulated that WAR in 2014 at seven times his career rate entering the season.  And he's a season and a half from being "on the wrong side of 30".

 

I agree that "not a starter on a good team" is a fairly poor rationale.  He could have been that in 2014.  Is he likely to repeat that?  At his age, projected to make ~$18 million in arb over the next 3 years before free agency, is he a building block for this team going forward?

 

If anything, fans seem to be overrating how much he could bring back in trade, which suggests that they might be OVER-rating him right now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Parmelee needs regular AB's if they are going to keep him.  He's proven that.

Hey, there is a minor league forum for Rochester Red Wings specific discussion.

[Steven Buhr]

One word of caution for those inclined to trade Plouffe to make room for Sano at 3B:

 

Take a long look at Seth's "preliminary" top 50 Twins prospect list and count up the third basemen. It won't take long. I count approximately... one. Sano.

 

What's the plan if you trade Plouffe and Sano doesn't work out at 3B defensively?

 

Sure, there are a few middle infielders who probably can move there, but that puts you right where the Twins have been for over a decade... with 3Bs who hit like middle infielders - because that's what they are.

 

The only minor leaguer I see on Seth's list, outside of Sano, who I would see any chance of playing 3B AND hitting like a 3B is Travis Harrison... and the Twins moved him to the OF in 2014 after he played 3B in 2013. Harrison hasn't played above high-A yet, so it's not like he's on the doorstep quite yet.

 

The time may very well come when Plouffe gets pushed out by Sano at 3B, but trading him before you are absolutely, beyond a doubt, certain that Sano will play there every day would be foolish, imo.

[Seth Stohs]

Niko Goodrum played 3B this year. 

 

I definitely say keep Plouffe, and keep Sano at 3B as well. If it starts looking like Plouffe is a star at 3B, then get Sano some time in LF and RF in the minors at that point, but definitely keep him playing 3B.

[drjim]

i think that's a very insightful and pertinent question.

 

My guess is, losing (more) time developing as a third baseman would be very difficult to overcome.

 

I don't think it's easy to "fail" as a left fielder though...if he hits you live with whatever level of defense he gives you. I would also keep first base in mind as his potential ultimate position when Mauer is gone. The other aspect of this is, if he "fails" as a left fielder, there probably was little chance he was going to be a good third baseman anyway.

 

This strikes me as the likely scenario. Starts out in LF, moves to 1B when Mauer moves on. Nothing wrong with starting him this spring at 3B to see if he can make it work but once he moves to LF he won't return to 3B.

[TheLeviathan]

I hope the reasoning isn't because of Plouffe but rather that Sano needs considerable time in the minors if he is going to play anything but a brutal 3B at the MLB level.  I think his bat is ready to come up sometime next year but it could be quite awhile for the defense to be ready.  Similar to the decision with Harper a few years ago.

 

I'm ok with him moving positions if it's best for Sano, but any decision on his long-term future should only be made with that in mind.  Plouffe is irrelevant.

[drjim]

I see this as a couple of separate issues.  Sano is being counted on to be a cornerstone of this franchise for the next 10 years - put him wherever you feel he may be most successful at each stage of his career.

 

The Twins are a couple of years away from being a serious contender.  Plouffe is above average on a poor team, but I see him as middle-of-the-pack on a decent team.  Can't see him as a cornerstone player in a couple of years when he is 30+ and hitting his decline years.  Trade him now while his value is high rather than wait to trade him when he reaches his inevitable decline.  Want to be more like St. Louis?  This would be one way.

 

This made me chuckle. I think the "do this to be more like St. Louis" will be the justification for everything we want done. I'll go out on a limb and suggest St. Louis hasn't traded an above average everyday player unless they have a clear replacement ready to go

[kab21]

Moving the guy coming off Tommy John Surgery on his throwing elbow to a position that relies less on throwing the ball makes perfect sense for the coming season. I question whether Sano is fast enough to be a good outfielder long term though. The question is if he fails do you move him back to third or does he become a 23-year-old DH?

Long term I think he has a better chance to not kill a team in LF/RF than 3B.  Long term I think he's a 1B/DH and I think that happens quicker than it did with MCab.

 

Yeah, I was hoping the discussion was merely thinking about temporarily putting less stress on his elbow.

 

If you move Sano from 3B to the OF, wouldn't that signifiy the end of Arcia?  I don't see this team fielding those two both as corner OF, but I'm nowhere close to being done with Arcia myself.  I think his bat has way too much potential.

Arcia's end will be the result of him not adjusting to MLB pitching.  If he starts putting up a .800-.850 OPS then the Twins will deal with the defensive issues because if he does put up those numbers then the Twins could have 3 OF'ers with .800-.900+ bats and another at DH in Vargas.  That's a sick lineup.  Or the Twins have a <25 yr old, cost controlled bat that is hitting .800+ OPS available in a trade.