Article: What Will Be The Twins' Identity?

[Nick Nelson]

On Friday, the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals will kick off the American League Championship Series. Both teams had successful seasons and have had extremely successful postseasons thus far.

 

They've reached a stage that the Twins, obviously, would like to return to, so it makes sense to examine these two clubs for inspiration as the rebuild pushes onward.You can draw some similarities between the Orioles and Royals, but in many ways they are polar opposites.

 

Baltimore is built around power. They led the majors with 211 homers and ranked last with 44 steals. Not one player on the O's roster swiped more than eight bases this season. This is a plodding, station-to-station club whose strategy is very much built around producing runs with bases-clearing hits and homers.

 

Conversely, the Royals are all speed and no power. They ranked last in the majors in home runs (95) but first in steals (153). They barely sneaked into the playoffs but were able to shockingly sweep a 98-win Angels team with a small-ball offensive attack characterized by aggressive base-running and lots (I mean LOTS) of sacrifice bunting.

 

I have little doubt that the Twins, at least under Ron Gardenhire, would have very much aspired to tailor themselves after the Royals. That's a brand of baseball that this organization has constantly held up as the gold standard over the years. However, when you look at the composition of this roster -- and the way it figures to evolve going forward -- there's no denying that the Twins are much more likely to assume Baltimore's profile.

 

By the end of next season, the middle of Minnesota's lineup will likely be anchored by Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas and Miguel Sano -- slow-footed sluggers. Elsewhere you've got guys like Joe Mauer, Kurt Suzuki and Trevor Plouffe, who also aren't threats with their legs.

 

Sure, there's Brian Dozier and Danny Santana, and eventually Byron Buxton. Maybe they'll add a speedster as a free agent. But barring a major shakeup or trade, the Twins aren't really going to have the personnel to execute the kind of speed-based, small-ball approach that they've so often striven for in the past.

 

Maybe that's not such a bad thing.

 

On the pitching side, there's good news. Neither the Orioles nor Royals have particularly strikeout-heavy staffs. Baltimore ranked 10th in the AL in K/9 rate this year, and Kansas City ranked 12th. The Twins, of course, ranked last with a miserable 6.5 K/9 rate, but the ground they need to make up to reach that level is obviously much smaller than the top tier.

 

Therein lies the rub. The key that allowed these staffs to excel without tons of strikeouts is found in one one clear commonality between the two teams: outstanding defense. Baltimore has several high-end fielders and KC has been hailed by some as the best defensive unit to come along in years.

 

Here's where the Twins are far, far behind. The path to returning to defensive excellence -- a longtime philosophical foundation and clearly a critical component in succeeding as a team -- is murky. As I wrote a month ago, the presence of so many slow power hitters within the offensive core makes it highly difficult to field a defense with great speed and range.

 

To me, this overarching paradox represents the greatest roadblock to a return to contention. The Twins have the offensive pieces to score runs -- albeit more in Baltimore's style than Kansas City's -- but can they create a dynamic with their pitching staff and defense that allows them to prevent scoring in the same way as the Orioles (third-fewest runs allowed in AL) and Royals (fourth-fewest)?

 

You've got to have power pitching or strong defense -- ideally both. But you can't have neither. This is where the identity crisis truly lies.

 

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[Physics Guy]

Nice article, Nick.  I think our IF defense should be at least solid if not above average. I don't see a weakness at any spot.  As talked about throughout the early offseason, the major weakness is in the OF.  As much as I like Arcia's bat, I think he becomes a trade piece in the near future.  He seems destined to be a DH on a team with too many DH candidates.  Hicks proving he can hit in the bigs along with Buxton making it to the bigs would certainly help improve the OF defense. 

[glunn]

Great article, Nick.  

 

I wonder how much of this is a function of fundamentals and hard work.  What if Arcia showed up in Ft. Meyers two weeks early and spent a few hours per day chasing balls in RF, making throws and taking live BP against pitchers with decent curveballs?  What if Arcia made it his life mission to win a gold glove?  I could be totally wrong, but it seems to me that Arcia has the speed and the arm to be a plus OF, but he would need a lot of hard practice to get there.  It also seems to me that Arcia made some great plays this year and some pretty bad plays, and with enough practice he could reduce the number of bad plays.

 

I watched all 3 of the Royals-Angels games.  It seemed to me that the Royals showed a huge edge in terms of fundamentals.  It seemed like every player could bunt.  Because bunting is a learned skill, I would assume that the Royals do whatever it takes to achieve proficiency in bunting.  I also saw Billy Butler steal a base.  Is there anyone on the Twins who is slower than Butler?  Like all Royals players, Butler seems to have worked hard on the fundamentals of base stealing.

 

I would like to see better fundamentals from the Twins.  This would require hard work by the players and the coaches.  It would also be aided by a new manager who can persuade the players that if they work hard, they have a shot at the postseason.  

 

Maybe it's easy for players to neglect fundamentals when they believe that the team has no chance of making the postseason.  Hopefully, the new manager can change that.  For me, the team's identity should be that every player produces at 100% and the fundamentals are among the best in the league.

[Paul Pleiss]

This is a great article. I don't think our IF defense will be terrible, or even bad, but I don't expect them to be above average. Joe Mauer may become an above average defender, but Brian Dozier, despite looking great and making some spectacular looking plays, is not an elite defender, at least that's what the numbers say. Eduardo Escobar, or Danny Santana, Eddie, more so than Danny, can play a servicable SS. Either of those guys may provide more value with their bat than their glove, although neither should be a black-hole defensively, neither profiles as an above average defdner. Plouffe has made huge strides. He's no longer a defensive liability, and by many advanced statistics, was the best Twins defender this season. I'm not sure he's a plus defender, but he's close.

 

The outfield defense, as you noted, has a long way to go. No need to hash that out.

[stringer bell]

Responding to all of the posts in this thread:  First, and foremost, the Twins need more players that are talented in all facets of the game.  On the current roster only Dozier is a good bet to win a lot of games with glove, bat and legs.  Mauer isn't fast, but he's a good base runner, is becoming a good defensive first baseman and has HOF hitting credentials, despite last year's disappointment.  "Triple threat" guys aren't plentiful and usually cost a lot of money. 

 

I agree that Arcia has the tools to be adequate or better as a right fielder.  Whoever is on the coaching staff should make a personal project of turning Arcia into a more complete hitter and a competent defender.  It will take work, but he has the tools and I don't think there's any doubt that he wants to excel.

 

Defense.  If the Twins want to get better defensively, they need to stick with guys up the middle.  I firmly believe that defense matters more at catcher, short, second, and center field.  You can win with a Manny Ramirez or Delmon Young on a corner, but you need better-than-average gloves up the middle and continuity.  Danny Santana will be starting at one of the up-the-middle positions.  I hope he doesn't split his time. 

 

Individual defense--Escobar is decent at the most demanding position that lines up in fair territory.  He won't make many "oh my" plays, but he turns outs into outs.  Dozier had a terrific year with the glove in '13, not so much this year, but on the whole he's a good defensive second baseman.  I still think he was better than average this year despite the high number of errors.  I didn't see enough of Santana at short to say "yea or nay" on his performance there.  I know he has the arm and the range.

Edited October 8, 2014 by stringer bell

[diehardtwinsfan]

If Baltimore can play elite defense with a station to station offense, then the Twins can too.  I think a lot of that is about smart baseball, something that I think Molitor excels at, which is why at the moment he's my preferred candidate to manage the team. 

 

Arcia in particular I think has the tools to be much better at it than he is.  I'm not terribly worried about the IF, as I think all of those guys will improve a bit.  I also think Santana can eventually be well above average and an upgrade over Escobar.  Escobar is supposedly a good defensive SS, though I didn't see that when I watched him.

[Physics Guy]

This is a great article. I don't think our IF defense will be terrible, or even bad, but I don't expect them to be above average. Joe Mauer may become an above average defender, but Brian Dozier, despite looking great and making some spectacular looking plays, is not an elite defender, at least that's what the numbers say. Eduardo Escobar, or Danny Santana, Eddie, more so than Danny, can play a servicable SS. Either of those guys may provide more value with their bat than their glove, although neither should be a black-hole defensively, neither profiles as an above average defdner. Plouffe has made huge strides. He's no longer a defensive liability, and by many advanced statistics, was the best Twins defender this season. I'm not sure he's a plus defender, but he's close.

 

The outfield defense, as you noted, has a long way to go. No need to hash that out.

It seems as though you are very skeptical of Santana's ability.  I've seen similar comments on other threads from you.  What are you seeing that leads you to believe this?  I would agree that Escobar is a more accomplished SS at this stage in his career.  I think Santana has the potential to be much better.  He has both the range and arm necessary to be an elite defender.  Although he didn't play a ton at SS this year, the "eye test" for him tells me he has good hands also.  Consistency seems to be his biggest issue, sometimes making spectacular plays but then missing the routine ones.  Florimon was much the same when he first came up and he turned out to be an above average fielder.  I wouldn't say he's better than Escobar at this point, but I would sure like to give him the chance.

[nytwinsfan]

I'm not sure the Twins need an "identity"  as much as they need to score more runs and give up fewer. And I'm only half being cute there. If Terry Ryan is deciding whether to sign or trade for a player then he should look at how much run-scoring and run-prevention he brings, whether it is from offense or defense or base-running. Yes, it might make sense if you have a lot of fly-ball pitchers to put extra weight on outfield defense. And yes, Target field has a big outfield, so speed and defense should potentially be given slightly more weight.  But besides a few marginally important "synergies"  like that, there doesn't need to be a planned, pre-determined identity. So what if Arcia, Sano, and Vargas are slow power hitters and Buxton, Dozier, and Santana are fast, good defenders? How does that hurt us in any way? There are no disynergies (is that a word?) from having a mixed lineup, as far as I'm aware. If you have another option in right-field that will add more value in defense than Arcia adds with his decent offense and poor defense, then let's trade or whatever. But often times there aren't other good options, so you go with the available player that adds the most value, whether that player adds value in a way that is consistent with other players on the team, or not. If you can point to a specific synergy or disynergy for a player, then fine, by all means, add or subtract some value accordingly. But even that should be on a case by case basis, not part of some grand team identity

.

Edited October 8, 2014 by nytwinsfan

[Siehbiscuit]

I think the Twins can have their cake and eat it too here. Back in 2006, the "piranhas" were on the bookends of the lineup. We had more power in the middle. A lineup featuring: Buxton, Dozier, Mauer, Vargas, Sano, Arcia, Suzuki/Pinto, Hicks/Escobar and Santana would provide that ability (although in 2016 more likely). 

 

Pitching is still the major problem here. A lot of teams can be successful with solid, but unspectacular defense. Teams DO NOT succeed with poor pitching. 

[tobi0040]

I'm not sure the Twins need an "identity"  as much as they need to score more runs and give up fewer. And I'm only half being cute there. If Terry Ryan is deciding whether to sign or trade for a player then he should look at how much run-scoring and run-prevention he brings, whether it is from offense or defense or base-running. .

 

I completely agree. You don't need either fast player or players that hit the ball out of the park. So I think an identity is overrated.  We need better players.  Sano and Buxton will likely get it done in different ways. Buxton with average, speed, and defense.  Sano with raw power.  Both are going to help us.

 

Dozier is a combo.  Mauer hopefully with BA and doubles power.  Arcia will hopefully be a thumper.

[ashbury]

Whether or not you can win with slow plodding defense, it's not my preference to have to root for such a team.  I always have felt sorry for fans in places like Detroit where their front office loads up on sluggers and then hopes to just bludgeon the other team while looking past the frequent humpback liners falling in for singles and flies hit some distance that go for triples.

[Brandon]

Our identity next season will be as a line drive doubles machine.  We had 6 players hit 27 or more doubles this year and all are going to start next year.  Also expect a full season of Vargas and Arcia.  We'll probably hit well over 300 of them as a team. 

 

Buxton wont add much as he'll probably hit 10-15 2Bs to go with his 20-30 3Bs.....

[James Richter]

I'd like to see the Twins emulate Baltimore's offseason strategy. They made nothing but depth moves all winter - their fans were freaking out - then they scooped up Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz the first week of spring training. O's fans are probably as disappointed in Ubaldo as most of us are in Nolasco, but he did settle for a lower AAV than most projected at the start of the offseason. Cruz was one of the steals of the offseason, and the O's will likely recoup the draft pick they gave up when they give him a QO next month.

 

These kinds of values are always available late in the offseason - the Twins were the beneficiaries of that market when they grabbed Thome and Orlando Hudson in 2010 for less than $10M. There's enough talent under team control right now to field an improved team for 2015. By staying patient and letting the market come to them, the Twins can add a couple of valuable pieces without overpaying in terms of dollars and years.

[bird]

Whether or not you can win with slow plodding defense, it's not my preference to have to root for such a team.  I always have felt sorry for fans in places like Detroit where their front office loads up on sluggers and then hopes to just bludgeon the other team while looking past the frequent humpback liners falling in for singles and flies hit some distance that go for triples.

I'm in this camp. 

 

There's a certain aesthetic that I want to see on defense, on the basepaths, and at the plate, but I can live with having two-three regulars that just don't have it in any department, as long as they aren't the opposite, i.e.. ugly to watch. Willingham and Delmon  were ugly to watch for me. Arcia, while looking awful and knuckleheaded much of the time, has a certain aesthetic appeal out there. Beauty interspersed with often really bad, but somehow not ugly to watch..

[tobi0040]

I'd like to see the Twins emulate Baltimore's offseason strategy. They made nothing but depth moves all winter - their fans were freaking out - then they scooped up Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz the first week of spring training. O's fans are probably as disappointed in Ubaldo as most of us are in Nolasco, but he did settle for a lower AAV than most projected at the start of the offseason. Cruz was one of the steals of the offseason, and the O's will likely recoup the draft pick they gave up when they give him a QO next month.

 

These kinds of values are always available late in the offseason - the Twins were the beneficiaries of that market when they grabbed Thome and Orlando Hudson in 2010 for less than $10M. There's enough talent under team control right now to field an improved team for 2015. By staying patient and letting the market come to them, the Twins can add a couple of valuable pieces without overpaying in terms of dollars and years.

 

I think fewer of these moves will exist this year.  Many players turned down the qualifying offer and got burned last year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Wow, the Twins outfielders breaking camp last season, really left some scars on people.  

 

With Santana, Hicks, and Schafer in the mix for LF/CF, I do not see a plodding outfield at all. Like you said birdwatcher, Arcia is too dynamic for me to worry about how much ground he can cover. I personally wouldn't trade him. He can be coached and will continue to mature. He's a potential leader. I like Nunez but not as a 4th OF though. He's really the only plodder left over from last year. 

[drjim]

I'd like to see the Twins emulate Baltimore's offseason strategy. They made nothing but depth moves all winter - their fans were freaking out - then they scooped up Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz the first week of spring training. O's fans are probably as disappointed in Ubaldo as most of us are in Nolasco, but he did settle for a lower AAV than most projected at the start of the offseason. Cruz was one of the steals of the offseason, and the O's will likely recoup the draft pick they gave up when they give him a QO next month.

 

These kinds of values are always available late in the offseason - the Twins were the beneficiaries of that market when they grabbed Thome and Orlando Hudson in 2010 for less than $10M. There's enough talent under team control right now to field an improved team for 2015. By staying patient and letting the market come to them, the Twins can add a couple of valuable pieces without overpaying in terms of dollars and years.

 

And they still only went 1 for 2 on those deals. Cruz was obviously a massive steal but Jimenez might end up a bigger disaster than Nolasco. The Orioles did well with the bargain deals that provided depth and unexpected production.

[James Richter]

Yeah, I think it's unusual for any team to have all their FA signings work out. All the more reason to make sure you're not overpaying.

 

And I don't want the QO status of Cruz and Jimenez to distract from the larger point of what's available late in the offseason. Draft-pick comp was a factor in those 2 guys hanging around as long as they did, but I don't think it was an issue with Hudson or Thome. Every year there are guys who overestimate their value in the early part of the offseason, then have to settle for whatever they can get once spring training is looming. There will be some values there.

[drjim]

Yeah, I think it's unusual for any team to have all their FA signings work out. All the more reason to make sure you're not overpaying.

 

And I don't want the QO status of Cruz and Jimenez to distract from the larger point of what's available late in the offseason. Draft-pick comp was a factor in those 2 guys hanging around as long as they did, but I don't think it was an issue with Hudson or Thome. Every year there are guys who overestimate their value in the early part of the offseason, then have to settle for whatever they can get once spring training is looming. There will be some values there.

 

Absolutely. If the Twins don't sign Tomas I would suggest this strategy to sign an OF. I would be a little bit more aggressive with a SP.

[mnfireman]

Does this team go with Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, May and Meyer or do they need to upgrade? That is the $?,???,??? question. Will a legit #1 or #2 come here? I think a good sales pitch could get one. Sell them on Hughes turnaround, the arrivals of Buxton, Sano and others and the professionalism of Mauer, Suzuki and others.

 

Improving the defense, where to start? How about trying to talk Torii Hunter into one last year, retire a Twin? Plug him into LF or RF and Arcia into the other. Hopefully a platoon (yes that nasty word!) of Schafer and Hicks in CF would suffice until Buxton's recall. Santana at SS where he belongs and we know the rest, Mauer, Dozier, Plouffe (until Sano's recall) and Suzuki.

 

It may not translate to 90 wins, but I don't think it will mean 90 losses either.

[Monkeypaws]

I vote for hybrid:

 

•top of the order filler with speedy platesetters like Buxton, Dozier.

 

•middle of the order with mix of power, average, and even a wee bit of speed like Sano, Arcia, perhaps one day Walker.

 

•bottom with some power and a speedy 9 guy who isn't an embarrassment.

 

Pretty classic lineup really. The Twins will hopefully put that together for me.

[DocBauer]

I vote for hybrid:

 

•top of the order filler with speedy platesetters like Buxton, Dozier.

 

•middle of the order with mix of power, average, and even a wee bit of speed like Sano, Arcia, perhaps one day Walker.

 

•bottom with some power and a speedy 9 guy who isn't an embarrassment.

 

Pretty classic lineup really. The Twins will hopefully put that together for me.

 

This basically what I was going to say, and a few others, more or less, have echoed the sentiment.

 

I believe the team the Twins should emulate is the Twins. When the Twins both of their World Series, and their other top 90 win playoff teams, each club was a little bit different in their makeup, as you would expect. But they were all very similar in their construction. While never leading the league in homers or stolen bases, there were always two or three guys at the top and bottom of the lineup who could run and steal some bases, and there were always three of four guys who had high teen/twenty plus HR totals, occassionaly around 30. And they always hit a ton of doubles. They took bases aggressively, played solid defense, and used their bench in a regular basis to keep everyone sharp.

 

SP depth varied, but there was an era of Viola and Blyleven to lead the way, or Morris, Tapani and Erickson, or Santana, Radke and even Liriano at one point. And the bullpens always had an elite closer and quality setup man or two to anchor things.

 

In other words, they may not have dominated in any particular area or category, but they were just constructed with a balanced roster.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm kind of glad we look like the slugging-types.  We've been a "small ball" team for awhile that never stole bases.

 

If we're not going to swipe bases to take advantage of slap hitting we might as well just hit homeruns.

[Monkeypaws]

Speed at the top and bottom of the lineup, with power in the middle. 

 

 

I still like situational ball too - KC has pulled all my strings this off-season as a fan.

 

Also, a bench that has something to offer other than mediocrity: elite speed for pinch running. power for pinch hitting, leather for defensive replacement.

 

A bench of guys that are basically not as good as your starters is kind of useless. No offense to Hermann, Nunez, Parmalee, but really, why?

Edited October 9, 2014 by Monkeypaws

[GoGonzoJournal]

A platoon of Hicks (.792 OPS vs. lefties) and Schafer (.681 OPS vs. righties) in LF would make for an above-average outfielder. They're also above average defensively.

 

Santana can continue playing CF. He was actually better defensively in CF than SS, just slightly below average. Pretty impressive considering he'd never played the position until this year.

 

And Escobar was better defensively than Santana at SS, again, just slightly below average. That's pretty good defensively up the middle, except Suzuki. 

 

The nice thing about all these guys, is they get on base and score runs at an above-average rate for their positions. I love that Schafer/Hicks platoon. I'll take an above-average defensive LF with a .750 OPS any day. It's basically like having Yoenis Cespedes.

 

Santana's OPS: .824! That's 44 points higher than Adam Jones, fourth among center fielders...just behind Carlos Gomez.

 

Escobar's OPS was .721, sixth among shortstops. Dozier was fourth. Plouffe was 11th. Arcia 11th. See where I'm going with this? I'll take average defense if my entire team hits at an above average clip. But you have to have the right kind of pitchers. Ours don't do outfielders favors. We need some groundball guys, and Jeremy Nyggard and Seth Stohs tossed Masterson out there. He could be had on the cheap and for one year. Something wasn't right this year. Likely his knee.

[stringer bell]

There is a little bit of SSS going on there, but based on 2014, that is the best lineup the Twins can put out there.  The thing is we're assuming that breakouts Santana, Vargas, Escobar and Schafer (in Minnesota) all sustain what they did last year.  I, for one, don't want anything to do with Aaron Hicks starting the 2015 in Minnesota. 

 

I am on board for signing Masterson, as well.  He will turn 30 in spring training and has experienced a successful season as recently as 2013. 

[hybridbear]

I miss the piranha days. However, that style isn't a requirement to win. Hopefully the next round of Twins players will be able to win with homeruns. And hopefully the Twins pitching staff will get back to having one of the best ERAs in the AL like during their last stretch of good years.

 

However, I think more than KC & Oakland it would be good to analyze the Giants & Cardinals. Those two teams have had the most postseason success in recent years, even though they don't run away with their respective divisions during the regular season. Somehow they turn it on in the postseason though. That's what the Twins should emulate.

[Craig Arko]

Batman.

[Willihammer]

Post-concussion Batman.

FTFY