Article: Buxton and Sano: Maybe the Time is Now

[tobi0040]

I would disagree with this. I don't think it matters in the least what those three are doing in regards to when Sano and Buxton come up, especially if they are lighting it up like we all hope they will.

 

I agree here. The issue with waiting until we have a "need" is that you are comparing a rookie that will likely struggle (Sano)  with a guy in his prime at close to peak value (Plouffe).  

[chopper0080]

I have a tough time believing that two players who hardly played in 2014, improved enough to make the big league roster.  Baseball isn't something you really learn and grow by watching.

 

Now, if you are changing your developmental philosophy, and believe that these players are strong enough mentally to be brought up and develop at the major league level do it.  You will either crush their confidence, or speed up their developmental process.

[Physics Guy]

I would disagree with this. I don't think it matters in the least what those three are doing in regards to when Sano and Buxton come up, especially if they are lighting it up like we all hope they will.

I think you misconstrued what I was talking about.  I was referring to the chatter on our forums, not specifically on whether they will/will not be called up.  I contend that the "noise" on the forums will be directly related to how the guys on the big leauge team are doing.  If Plouffe, Hicks and Arcia are all playing well, I don't think there will be as many pushing for call up Sano and Buxton right away.  If all three are stinking up the joint, everybody will want them up.  I want Sano and Buxton to come up when they are ready to contribute.

[drjim]

I think you misconstrued what I was talking about.  I was referring to the chatter on our forums, not specifically on whether they will/will not be called up.  I contend that the "noise" on the forums will be directly related to how the guys on the big leauge team are doing.  If Plouffe, Hicks and Arcia are all playing well, I don't think there will be as many pushing for call up Sano and Buxton right away.  If all three are stinking up the joint, everybody will want them up.  I want Sano and Buxton to come up when they are ready to contribute.

 

Fair enough and good distinction. I can't speak for others but if Sano and Buxton are lighting it up I will want them up no matter what Plouffe and Hicks especially are doing.

[Thrylos]

I would not put Buxton and Sano in the same sentence as far as MLB-readiness goes.

 

Sano is ready.  He should be the Twins' starting third baseman in 2015.

Buxton is a question mark.  If he dominates the AFL (and I mean dominates) and has a good spring training, then he should go north.  If his OPS is sitting around .700-.750, he needs more time.

[SwainZag]

I would not put Buxton and Sano in the same sentence as far as MLB-readiness goes.

 

Sano is ready.  He should be the Twins' starting third baseman in 2015.

Buxton is a question mark.  If he dominates the AFL (and I mean dominates) and has a good spring training, then he should go north.  If his OPS is sitting around .700-.750, he needs more time.

 

How can you be so certain he is ready?  Was it the .236 he hit with shaky defense a year ago?  He hasn't played now in a full season, saying he is ready seems like quite the assumption, especially when you have a 4 WAR player who just had his best season playing 3B.  

[tobi0040]

How can you be so certain he is ready?  Was it the .236 he hit with shaky defense a year ago?  He hasn't played now in a full season, saying he is ready seems like quite the assumption, especially when you have a 4 WAR player who just had his best season playing 3B.  

 

The BA is only telling part of the story.  He had 19 HR in 60 games at AAA with an OPS around .920. 

[SwainZag]

The BA is only telling part of the story.  He had 19 HR in 60 games at AAA with an OPS around .920. 

 

True, though it was in AA and not AA.  19 HR in 233 AB is showing elite power.  He also struck out 81 times, or nearly 35% of the time.  I don't want to down play his power, but with low batting average and the high K rate....and being that it happened a full year ago, I still don't come to the conclusion "he is ready."

[Mike Sixel]

No one can be sure anyone is ready. Plenty of teams call up guys before they prove stuff. I think KC has a pitcher that was in college this year. ......but for some reason, MN players must prove a positive, which is actually impossible.

[jay]

Sano is ready.  He should be the Twins' starting third baseman in 2015.

 

What's your plan for Plouffe?

[jay]

No one can be sure anyone is ready. Plenty of teams call up guys before they prove stuff. I think KC has a pitcher that was in college this year. ......but for some reason, MN players must prove a positive, which is actually impossible.

 

Was Vargas proven?  Was Arcia proven?  Was Danny Santana proven?  Was Hicks proven?

 

Was any prospect that has ever been called up proven?

[Thrylos]

What's your plan for Plouffe?

 

A Randy Bush/Gene Larkin type or role, for which he is better suited.   Plouffe is not a starting third baseman in a world series team.  .750 OPS just does not cut it. He would be a great role player in a good team.  The Twins need those instead of the marginal bench bats and gloves

Edited October 8, 2014 by Thrylos

[Physics Guy]

Fair enough and good distinction. I can't speak for others but if Sano and Buxton are lighting it up I will want them up no matter what Plouffe and Hicks especially are doing.

If they are lighting it up, that indicates they are ready.  I would hope the Twins would find space to use them.

[SwainZag]

A Randy Bush/Gene Larkin type or role, for which he is better suited.   Plouffe is not a starting third baseman in a world series team.  .750 OPS just does not cut it. He would be a great role player in a good team.  The Twins need those instead of the marginal bench bats and gloves

 

A role player that just put up 4 WAR as a starter.  

 

Moustakas had an OPS of .652

Manny Machado had an OPS of 755 and Flaherty had an OPS of .644

Matt Carpenter had an OPS of 750

Pablo Sandoval had an OPS of 739

 

Trevor Plouffe had an OPS of 751

 

Weird how two of those teams will make the World Series, but none of them have a starting 3B for a World Series team.

[Thrylos]

A role player that just put up 4 WAR as a starter.  

 

Moustakas had an OPS of .652

Manny Machado had an OPS of 755 and Flaherty had an OPS of .644

Matt Carpenter had an OPS of 750

Pablo Sandoval had an OPS of 739

 

Trevor Plouffe had an OPS of 751

 

Weird how two of those teams will make the World Series, but none of them have a starting 3B for a World Series team.

 

3.5 fWAR not 4.    The point is that Sano is better than Plouffe.  You cannot not play the better guy,  Sano makes the Twins more likely to win than Plouffe.

 

If Plouffe is so great, the Twins should get a couple of good prospects for him, or at least a Centerfielder, no?  Trade him. 

 

But you got to start the better player who is not always the "proven veteran".

[SwainZag]

3.5 fWAR not 4.    The point is that Sano is better than Plouffe.  You cannot not play the better guy,  Sano makes the Twins more likely to win than Plouffe.

 

If Plouffe is so great, the Twins should get a couple of good prospects for him, or at least a Centerfielder, no?  Trade him. 

 

But you got to start the better player who is not always the "proven veteran".

 

Sano has more potential than Plouffe, but he IS a better player? Based on what grounds?  That's a pure speculative assumption.  That's how you go into a season with Hicks as your starting CF.  You trade away both players that play the position and pencil in your AA player into the opening day lineup.

[Thrylos]

Sano has more potential than Plouffe, but he IS a better player? Based on what grounds?  That's a pure speculative assumption.  That's how you go into a season with Hicks as your starting CF.  You trade away both players that play the position and pencil in your AA player into the opening day lineup.

 

Is Vargas a better player than Plouffe?  Yes. 

Sano is a better player than Vargas and more MLB-ready.

Thus, Sano is better than Plouffe.

 

Logic.

[drjim]

3.5 fWAR not 4.    The point is that Sano is better than Plouffe.  You cannot not play the better guy,  Sano makes the Twins more likely to win than Plouffe.

 

If Plouffe is so great, the Twins should get a couple of good prospects for him, or at least a Centerfielder, no?  Trade him. 

 

But you got to start the better player who is not always the "proven veteran".

 

It is far from certain and probably unlikely that Sano would be better than Plouffe next year. But I absolutely agree that they should consider trading Plouffe for an OF or SP.

 

If Sano was to break camp with the Twins, which he won't, he would certainly hit bombs and other power but would be a low AVG guy and I would be concerned about his BB rate. The Twins could certainly live with this, and he would probably improve as the season moved on, but I personally would be concerned about his defense. After a year off and TJ I would be a little hesitant to put him out there day one and let him go with his elbow. I would much rather break him in a little slower in the minors, play a couple games, dh a game, take a day off, pull him if the elbow is tender. Much easier to manage that at AA than in the bigs.

[USAFChief]

Is Vargas a better player than Plouffe?  Yes. 

Sano is a better player than Vargas and more MLB-ready.

Thus, Sano is better than Plouffe.

 

Logic.

Vargas can play 3rd??!?

 

Sweet.

[twinsnorth49]

Is Vargas a better player than Plouffe?  Yes. 

Sano is a better player than Vargas and more MLB-ready.

Thus, Sano is better than Plouffe.

 

Logic.

If Vargas is better  than Plouffe and Sano is better than Vargas, then that makes Sano better than Plouffe despite never having played a game of MLB, sure I'll play along.

 

If that is the scenario the Twins are looking at, then somebody has done a great job in assembling a lineup that features all of them. Well done Mr. Ryan. 

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Sano could probably put up numbers similar to Arcia this year if he went north out of spring training - low avg, lots of Ks, plenty of power, questionable defence.  If there wasn't a solid 3B option ahead of him I'd say bring him up and let him learn on the job.

Plouffe is a solid option though, and there's no harm in giving Sano a couple of months in AAA to get the rust off that surgically repaired elbow, get some confidence he can make all the plays he needs to from hot corner and blow away AAA pitching before bringing him up, hopefully for good.

It may sound counter-intuitive given Buxton has barely hit a ball above A+, but I would have more confidence in him contributing from the get go, if only with the glove and on the base paths in the first instance before his bat catches up (which I'm sure it would).

TBH though I don't see either of them breaking camp with the MLB club.  If I was betting, I'd guess we'll see Sano at end May/early June and Buxton after the All Star break.

[Thrylos]

Sano could probably put up numbers similar to Arcia this year if he went north out of spring training -

 

Beg to differ.  Sano will probably put up numbers similar to Vargas this year, with an increase in the power and contact parts (BA & SLG)

[h2oface]

Joe Mauer needs to hit like a 3 hole hitter to be always penciled in there.  He hits like a 2 hole hitter without the speed.  But he does have deceptive speed.  Unless he earns it, he is no longer a 3 hole hitter.  I don't see Buxton or Sano coming up until June or July, maybe the end of May if they are going balistic.  Sitting out a year really does take you backwards. It will now take a little time.

[LaBombo]

A role player that just put up 4 WAR as a starter.  

 

Moustakas had an OPS of .652

Manny Machado had an OPS of 755 and Flaherty had an OPS of .644

Matt Carpenter had an OPS of 750

Pablo Sandoval had an OPS of 739

 

Trevor Plouffe had an OPS of 751

 

Weird how two of those teams will make the World Series, but none of them have a starting 3B for a World Series team.

Thanks for posting that.  It's a good summary of what unspecial seasons some of the postseason 3b's had, and a surprising one to boot.  Also an object lesson on not focusing too much on one position with regard to building a contender.  Well done.

 

But a couple of things about TP's value as a starter.  Plouffesie's increased WAR was as much a product of his defense as his offense, and that's the less reliable component of the two.  His defense looked better to me, but not night and day better.

 

The bigger thing is his age.  Some late bloomers do have the light bulb come on at 28 and become a good hitter after being an average (or even bad) one.  But more often, they're guys having a fluke season at a very common age for an average player to have a career year, at least according to BProp's aging curve.

 

Plouffe had a negative career WAR prior to this season.  His career year at the plate resulted in a .258/.328/.423 slash.  While his defense at third improved at third, it wasn't Koskian, let alone BrooksRobinsonian.

 

And yet he was a plus player.  His overall offense can take a small step back and still have some value.  His defense at third seems to be a modest but genuine plus.  He can play multiple defensive positions, including the critical middle infield spots, without getting a GM fired on the spot. His platoon splits suggest that he has value as an RH bat off the bench.  That has the ring of an  amazing utility player.

 

Ok, not Zobresque, but really a plus to a young team, either as roster duct tape or juicy trade leach.

 

PS In Minnesota, leaches are used as bait way more than medical treatment devices.

Edited October 9, 2014 by LaBombo

[ashbury]

... a starting third baseman in a world series team.  .750 OPS just does not cut it.

Normalized to the league, Plouffe's 2014 OPS of .751 was good for 110 OPS+.  We do have two other world series winners to compare to: Gaetti's OPS of .788 in 1987 only comes to 102 OPS+, and Pagliarulo's 1991 OPS of .706 comes to a paltry 91 OPS+.  (Scotty Leius did supplement Pags at third, in one of the more successful platoons in Twins history, so that their combined production was probably about in line with Plouffe's season.)

 

Ah yes, I overlooked another world series Twins team, one that didn't win it all.  1965 had the legendary Rich Rollins and his .641 (OPS+ 79).

 

Others have debated the substance of your position, but I couldn't let this Twins-specific aspect of it go without comment.  It seems clear to me that a team could win with Trevor Plouffe at third base if he keeps up present production, and without the manager having to go to great lengths to work around him.  1991 was more of a challenge and required some actual Managin'^TM for the position.

[stringer bell]

Harmon started 40 games at third in '65.  His OPS for the season was .885, so that probably lifted the OPS for the position over .700.

[jay]

Here's TR saying that Sano could head to the outfield if he's not ready for 3B or if there's an established veteran at the spot:

http://m.startribune.com/sports/twins/278610501.html?section=/sports

[Mike Sixel]

That was my point. ....people here are saying twins players have to prove they are ready before coming up. You and I seem to agree, they don't. And you can't.

[jay]

TR in that same Q&A session on Sano making the club out of ST:

“He’s not going to be ready to make this team out of spring training. He’s going to have to re-establish himself,” Ryan said of the 21-year-old Dominican. “We’ll give him a good look in spring training, but to put that out there, that he’s got a chance to make this club out of spring, I think that would be the wrong approach. He’s barely got any at-bats at Double-A.”

 

TR echoing my belief that no one moves an established vet for an unproven rook:

“So if we had a problem at third and you had too much talent over there, which is a good problem to have, you certainly could consider the young kid going to the outfield and learning his craft out there. A lot of them do — there are a lot of young players who come up and change positions in a hurry if they’re blocked [by] an established veteran.”

[Linus]

That was my point. ....people here are saying twins players have to prove they are ready before coming up. You and I seem to agree, they don't. And you can't.

I believe what most people are saying in this regard is "prove that you are ready for the next level by showing that you have nothing left to learn or gain at the current level".  Of course, nobody knows how they will do in the majors until they actually are there.  If you can't do it in the minors, you won't do it in the majors.

 

I would start Sano in AAA, and if he performs at a high level over the first couple of months, bring him up.  Buxton needs longer - I doubt we see him with the Twins this year.