Article: Buxton and Sano: Maybe the Time is Now

[Steven Buhr]

It's the offseason, so that means we are already deep in thought and discussion concerning 2015 roster construction for the Minnesota Twins.I reserve the right to change my mind, of course, but my preliminary thought on the subject has resulted in a conclusion I wasn't expecting:

 

Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano should both be Minnesota Twins on Opening Day 2015.True, General Manager Terry Ryan has some time before he has to give much thought to such an un-Twins-like idea.

 

 (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com) 

 

Ryan can spend October finding a manager, gathering with his staff for organizational meetings in Florida and putting together a minor league field management organization. But when the final out is made in this year's World Series, it's time to get serious about this roster. When he does, maybe Buxton and Sano should part of his plan.

 

My thoughts aren't firmly in place yet, but it occurs to me that, if we're all so certain that the Twins' GM needs to think a bit differently than he has in the past when it comes to hiring a manager and coaching staff, maybe it's time to think a bit differently about how he treats his future superstars, too.

 

So, even if you think I've lost my mind (and I may ultimately conclude the same thing), hear me out for a moment.

 

I think most Twins fans would like to see improvement in two specific areas next season.

 

First, as seems to always be the case, we want another top-tier starting pitcher. Maybe Ricky Nolasco will bounce back or maybe he won't. If he doesn't, Phil Hughes is going to need help at the top of the rotation. Even if Nolasco does rebound, I'd love to have him as my #3 starter rather than my #2, if I could land a bigger fish in the offseason.

 

The second area of relative consensus is that the outfield must improve.

 

The Twins scored enough runs in 2014 to be a competitive baseball team. They simply didn't keep opponents from crossing the plate nearly enough. If the starting pitching was problem number 1A, the outfield defense was certainly 1B.

 

Fixing the starting pitching is easy enough. You shell out the money to lure one of the top free agent starters. If you're not willing to do that, you might reach for another Phil Hughes-type, but I'm not enthused about that approach. I think you go for the top guys or you just load up Trevor May and Alex Meyer to go with Hughes, Nolasco and Kyle Gibson and get Jose Berrios ready for an early call-up when it becomes necessary.

 

As tired as we all are of losing 90 games, making a managerial changes takes a little bit of pressure off in terms of the 2015 season. For the first time in about three years, you don't enter the season with the staff coaching for their professional lives.

 

So, if you can't (or won't) add a true difference-maker to your rotation, you can simply accelerate the advancement of those minor leaguers that you feel are closest to being ready.

 

Which brings us to the outfield dilemma.

 

The outfield situation is only a dilemma because of Byron Buxton. Without his presence looming, you could address the outfield just like you do the starting pitching - go out and get the best guy you can buy or trade for on the market. But Buxton's presence means (1) the Twins won't add someone on a high-dollar long-term deal that would "block" Buxton, and (2) no centerfielder on the free agent market with designs on a long-term deal is going to want to come to Minnesota, anyway.

 

That appears to leave the Twins with two options. Either they identify a short-term solution they can sign/trade for or they keep the status quo, using Jordan Schafer or Danny Santana until Buxton is deemed ready for prime time. With expectations dampened and a new manager in the dugout, however, maybe it's time to just say, "screw development," and throw Byron Buxton out there right from the start.

 

And while you're at it, do the same thing with Miguel Sano.

 

http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/SanoST11-742x1024.jpg

Miguel Sano

 

These two guys are going to be the cornerstones of the Twins for years to come, so why not just get them in the game right now? Sure, they'll struggle. But if they don't arrive until 2016, you have to assume they'll struggle some, then, too.

 

Okay, I know, we can think of a number of reasons NOT to do this. They both essentially lost their entire 2014 seasons to injury and there is no assurance either player is really ready to face Major League pitching.

 

The specter of Aaron Hicks' two years of near-abject failure, after being pushed up to the big leagues prematurely, looms over the organization. And he came up after spending almost twice as much time as Sano at AA, a level Buxton hasn't technically completed a full game at, much less a season.

 

You certainly wouldn't want to damage the psyches of Buxton or Sano by having them fail miserably.

 

But you know what? From what I've seen of these two guys, I don't think we have to worry about their psyches. Both players know what their destinies are and they aren't going to let a little bit of a learning curve keep them from getting where they know they belong in this game.

 

We have seen how they address new challenges.

 

They see. They learn. They adjust.

 

Then they dominate.

 

So, maybe the Twins should just skip the whole, "what do we do to improve the outfield until Buxton gets here," era and put the guy in centerfield.

 

Maybe you take them aside and say, "Guys, if you're healthy in April, you're going to be Minnesota Twins. You may perform like Kennys Vargas or you may look more like Aaron Hicks, but you're going to stay in Minnesota. You will not be sent back to the minors. From this point forward, you are Major League baseball players. Now get to work and act like it."

 

The thing is, you can't wait until spring training to make this decision. It wouldn't be fair to Trevor Plouffe. If Sano is going to step in as your primary third baseman, Plouffe needs to spend some time this winter learning to play left field. Maybe he and Joe Mauer could learn together.

 

For that matter, I'd tell Sano to go out there and shag some fly balls, too, because I'm not convinced the Twins won't discover they're better off defensively with Sano in the outfield and Plouffe at the hot corner.

 

But one way or another, maybe Buxton and Sano should be in the Opening Day line up. Imagine for a moment:

 

Buxton CF

Dozier 2B

Mauer 1B

Vargas DH

Sano LF/3B

Arcia RF

Plouffe 3B/LF

Escobar/Santana SS

Suzuki C

 

I'd buy tickets to see that line up, no matter who the starting pitcher is. I bet a few other people would, too.

 

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[Seth Stohs]

I don't want to wait until 2016 to see them either, but after missing the entire 2014 season (or close to it in Buxton's place), I think two months of minor league time is more than fair. Mid-June, I want to see them!

[clutterheart]

Injuries have pushed back the rebuild until 2016. The team should be cautious with both players now. It stinks.

[Platoon]

With the exception of "fixing the starting pitching is easy enough" I like this. It addresses a major issue/problem the Twins have. They can't begin to stabilize their roster or lineup until these two guys are playing here. I am not a big Plouffie fan, but even I think that he is currently a better fielder than Sano. But we have seen Plouffe at his best this year, and it is his ceiling. My point, the Twins have, for the last several years, fielded teams of nice, safe, middling players. Good enough for Dick and Bert to go "wow, what a play" a few times. But what they need is for Sano, Buxton, Vargas, Arcia, Santana, and a rejuvenated Mauer to become the cornerstones. The Plouffes, Doziers, and Suzukis then fill in the voids. If that scenario does not play out, we will again be looking for the next rebuild, to celebrate the 30th anniversary of our last World Series win.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm with Seth here. If Buxton dominated AA/A+ like he did last year in A/A+, I might be up for this experiment. But he wasn't that good in Fort Meyers and he didn't finish one game in AA. He needs to not only earn it, but simply show he's healthy. I don't want another Hicks situation, and I especially don't want to see valuable service time eaten up b/c a kid was promoted and wasn't ready. I'd say the same for Sano, though I could see starting him in Rochester to open the season and giving him a call up sooner than later. Moving both of these guys up looks more like desparation than anything. Regardless of which, it won't be hard to find a CF on a 1 year deal. What the Twins really need to do is figure out LF.

[KGB]

I agree with Seth also, this has to be the year we start seeing the rebuilding with prospects, not left over major league talent.  I also think that we need to go that route with the pitching.  Hughes was a big hit, but no top pitcher is going to sign with a 4 time 90 loss team.  We'll have misses as we bring up the young players, but we might also get the big surprise.  Once you can show some positive in the team play, you will be able to get the top FA's next year.

[JB_Iowa]

At the very least, shouldn't we see how Buxton does in the AFL?

[lightfoot789]

Players are alot more resilent than most give credit for.  Terrance Gore is playing for the Royals in the NLCS and played against Buxton, Walker, Kepler, Polanco, etc., in the 2012 Appy League Championship and all season for that matter.  He has a "particular set of skills"  (like Liam Neeson lol) that the Royals weren't afraid to utilize at the MLB level.  If he failed so what.  The kid knows his destiny as you said, and will be that much better when he does "arrive" with his complete skill set in tact.  If players know the pit falls that may hinder them throughout the way - They will bounce back just fine as they find their game at the MLB level.  It just takes some belief by the organization not to yo yo them to AAA to the MLB to AAA to MLB.  Let them learn on the job like all these Rookie NFL Quarterbacks.  Might not be pretty, but 2016 should be less of a learning curve for the team overall.

[Craig Arko]

At the very least, shouldn't we see how Buxton does in the AFL?

 

And how Sano does in the Dominican League.

[Steven Buhr]

What a bunch of nervous nellies!

 

Of course, we see how these two do in fall/winter ball. But really... "wait 2 months"? Why?

 

I mean, if you want to claim neither guy is ready and might need the better part of the year in the minors to be better seasoned, OK, I can at least understand that, even if I don't necessarily agree right now.

 

And don't even go down the "service time" path, please. Not with potential superstars. You worry about service time for guys you think might play out the string through the arbitration process. If these two aren't locked up long-term well before anyone worries about service time, something has gone terribly wrong.

 

You're going to have a new manager and new coaches, but if you want to regain your fan base and prove you are immediately setting out to get the "next wave" of players in place to start being competitive, you don't fool around with your next two superstars by having them cool their heels for 2 months. Especially when one of them plays a position that, should he not open with the Twins, is a potentially fatal gaping defensive hole.

[birddog]

As always, I also agree with Seth. After four years of futility, the worst thing we can do is panic and pull an "Aaron Hicks". Look at the young Astros and Cubs who were brought up, had initial success, and then looked very feeble. Danny Santana and Kenys Vargas, two good-but-not-great prospects, got all Twins fans salivating that if they can do what they did, how good will Buxton and Sano be? Like a 6 year old waiting to open presents, I can't wait to see how good they'll be--but we have to. Will Hicks ever become the player he was two springs ago? No one is sure, but if not he is replaced. What player could possibly replace the legacy we have created for these two uber prospects? Can't-miss prospects in baseball too often miss. The Twins can't afford to let that happen here.

[Willihammer]

I would be fine with starting Sano but am a little gun shy about Buxton. At least Sano had dominated AA. He would have been up in 2014 at some point, had the elbow not happened so if you assume he'll be able to pick up where he left off, we'd only be accelerating that timeline a couple of months. Buxton has all of 3 PAs in AA and I don't want another Gomez / Hicks type fiasco.

[Boom Boom]

I really don't think the Hicks situation should weigh on the decision to promote Buxton and/or Sano at all.

 

Hicks was never as good a prospect as either of those two, and sometimes a guy who looks like he's ready will come up and struggle.  From what the team and media says about Hicks, it's not his skills that are holding him back.  He's got some personality issues.

 

I'm a big believer in expecting success before reacting to failure.  Holding back Buxton or Sano because of Hicks seems like expecting failure.  If they come up and struggle they won't be the first prospects to do so.  I think they can both deal with their confidence being shaken a bit, at least better than Hicks has.

[Dantes929]

I don't consider Hicks to be a case of rushing him to the majors. He had a solid year in the minors and a fantastic spring training. You all saw what the Twins saw and were clamoring for him to be brought North. He could just as easily have gotten on a hot streak and never looked back. It also would not have surprised me if he spent more time in the minors, was even more successful there and then came and stunk it up in the majors. Twins did nothing wrong here including not having a plan B. They had no plan B for Puckett, Hunter, Span, Revere, or Gomez. Also, as long as he is sitting in the 8 or 9 spot in the order his OBP is better than Revere's at a very respectable .341.

Very few established major league players can come back after sitting out a year and pick up where they left off (see Bartlett). Expecting a minor league player to come back after the layoff and promote him two levels to boot is unreasonable. Fast track yes. Faster track than Mike Trout. No.

[Blackjack]

After watching Aaron Hicks fail miserably after being brought up too soon?? After both being injured for most of the year?? 

 

NOT a good idea!!! Twins are desperate but not stupid.

[Boom Boom]

I'm not saying that I'm 100% for calling them up immediately at the start of the season.  I just think that Aaron Hicks is immaterial to the question.

[Physics Guy]

Put me in the camp of making both of them prove they are healthy and ready to contribute.  AFL and winter ball will help, but I'd still like to see them spend some time in the minors next season to get their feet wet.  Plouffe is fine at 3B, so we don't need to rush Sano.  I say play Hicks in CF (maybe play Schaefer against the best RHP).  It gives us a couple of months to see if Hicks has turned the corner and can be the LF/RF when Buxton comes up.

 

You can't completely disregard the service time argument.  While the Twins should lock up Sano and Buxton well before they hit FA, it does allow them to do so a year later.  For a cost-conscious team like the Twins, that can be important.  That said, Terry Ryan hasn't seemed too concerned about that in the past. 

[Halsey Hall]

I remember Terry Ryan telling me how he hated to bring up Torii Hunter, because he wasn't ready.  He may have the same thoughts here, although that was a long time ago, and 4 90 loss seasons in a row could change that. 

 

From what I saw of Buxton this spring, I'd give him at least a month at AA, and if he's having success, bring him up.  I wouldn't be afraid to bring Sano north with the break of camp.  There'll be a lot of learning to be done but let that be at the highest level. 

 

Everyone knows my thoughts on Plouffe, I don't believe he'd be any good in the outfield.  I'd trade him for a decent arm for the pen and be done with it.  Make a commitment to Sano and let the future begin. 

[Adam]

Having Buxton and Sano break camp with the team, as exciting as might be for fans, is totally irresponsible stewardship of their service time. The only impact player who recently broke camp with his team and stayed up the whole season that I can think of is Jason Heyward with the Braves in 2010, and the Braves won 91 games that year and won the Wild Card before losing to the Giants in the playoffs. In that case, the Braves had a clear need in the outfield, and having Heyward up for the extra two weeks at the beginning of the season made sense for them because they expected to be competing for a playoff berth. The Twins won't be in such a position next year. Let Buxton and Sano prove they can dominate in AA and AAA first.

[mudcat14]

Hicks played 4 full season plus his draft year in the minors before he opened with the big club.  In those years, he NEVER displayed the talent and dominance that Buxton and Sano exhibited regularly.  If they're physically fit and eager to go, there is no reason not to let them develope at the big league level.  These are elite talents, and are up to the challenge.   

 

Santana - SS

Buxton - CF

Mauer - 1B

Vargas - DH

Arcia - RF

Plouffe - LF/3B

Sano - LF/3B

Suzuki - C

Dozier - 2B

[Steve Lein]

And don't even go down the "service time" path, please. Not with potential superstars. You worry about service time for guys you think might play out the string through the arbitration process. If these two aren't locked up long-term well before anyone worries about service time, something has gone terribly wrong.

 

Yes on this.  One million times yes on this.  I say this all the time.  Don't understand why this is brought up for such players!

[TheLeviathan]

Sano and Buxton haven't followed the same development path so I have trouble lumping them into the same decision.

 

Sano has shown the ability to dominate AA - he's ready.  I have to see that from Buxton before I'm ready for him to come up.

[brvama]

Well, this certainly woke me up.  It is an interesting angle.  However, I tend to side on the "let's see what we have by April 2015" first.

 

I am all for pushing these 2 b/c I believe they are elite players.  Their make-up seems to indicate thaey strive when challenged.  Some players just don't have the self-confidence in their abilities to be "thrown to the wolves."  Buxton and Sano believe in their abilities.  I do think a month or two, especially for Buxton, in AA would be wise, however.  As with Sano, He seems ready or so close that ML would not swallow him.  Spring training should be a good guide for him. 

 

BUT (my wife hates that word!), it is the mental part that worries me - that is, with both of them losing some much time, do they try to make up the time or do they just go about their business.  I worry more about that then having to adjust to better competition and struggle through the learning curve.

 

Still I will be disappointed, barring injury, if both aren't on the roster by June 1.

Edited October 6, 2014 by brvama

[Linus]

While Hicks has nothing to do with this.....there is a "right" time for each player to get their shot, and a cost when it is too soon.  I agree that "the right time" for these two is going to be earlier than other prospects, but Buxton hasn't even played in AA yet.  Let them start in AAA and AA and earn the trip to the big leagues.  If they can't do it in the minors, there is no point in bringing them to the majors.

 

Besides, we got our fresh blood in the lineup - it looks nothing like it did at the beginning of the season. 

[nicksaviking]

For some reason there seems to be a minimum 12 month delay of recovery for concussions in Minnesota.  It doesn't seem to occur elsewhere, maybe it's something in the water.  Normally I'd be right with John on this topic, but perhaps Buxton needs shake the cobwebs out for a bit drinking some of the water polluted with factory runoff in industrial upstate NY befor coming West. 

[ericchri]

Bring them up (if they're healthy).  I can't agree with the premise more. 

 

I thought they would and should both be up this year so I'm not going to look at an injury-filled season as any reason to change that thought.  If they spend a couple months in the minors fine, but they need to play in the majors to understand playing in the majors.  Both have proved in their time in the minors they're better than the other guys they're playing with/against, let them figure out what it's like playing with others their skill level.  I get it, there are "obvious" reasons to not start in the majors, but I think (hope) Buxton and Sano are just plain good enough to not worry about it.  They need these guys on the team to really understand the team's dynamic anyway, since their presence has a massive effect on who else plays and where.  I say the sooner the better.

[KGB]

Danny Santana was brought up at the same age as Hicks and Santana never had great years in the minors.

 

Age isn't the question, talent and attitude is more important .  You sometimes need to put players in situations where they can grow. The Twins are no longer in a position where they can keep telling people to wait.

[laloesch]

For some reason there seems to be a minimum 12 month delay of recovery for concussions in Minnesota.  It doesn't seem to occur elsewhere, maybe it's something in the water.  Normally I'd be right with John on this topic, but perhaps Buxton needs shake the cobwebs out for a bit drinking some of the water polluted with factory runoff in industrial upstate NY befor coming West. 

 

 

Upstate NY is not at all polluted like it was in the 50's & 60's.  Most of the industry left the "Empire State" decades ago for Japan (late 70's early 80's)  and China (late 80's early 90's)  There's nothing left in Buffalo and Rochester except boarded up factories, collapsing houses (similar to Detroit) and a population of aging, miserable, destitute people who are mostly on public assistance because they can't find work.      

 

Source.  Lived in Lockport, NY (halfway between Rochester and Buffalo) for four years.

Edited October 6, 2014 by laloesch

[tobi0040]

I would be fine with starting Sano but am a little gun shy about Buxton. At least Sano had dominated AA. He would have been up in 2014 at some point, had the elbow not happened so if you assume he'll be able to pick up where he left off, we'd only be accelerating that timeline a couple of months. Buxton has all of 3 PAs in AA and I don't want another Gomez / Hicks type fiasco.

 

I completely agree about Buxton.  The risks outweigh the benefits here. The Twins staff said Buxton was over-powered in spring training last year.  Then he went and played a total of 31 games at an OPS of .702. 

 

Sano has at least had 67 games with some success (.915 OPS) at AA, with 19 HR.

[Dman]

I believe service time does matter and I wouldn't start either of those guys out of Spring training.  Until Sano's defense and Buxton's Offense are MLB caliber there is plenty for them to learn in the minors.  No teams like to burn service time for players unless they are in a playoff hunt.  When rebuilding you want your core guys to be able to play together for as long as possible.  The young potential ace pitching we have coming up is a couple of years behind the position players.  The closer that gap becomes the more years they have to play together.

 

Thinking that the Twins can extend two super star players seems a bit pie in the sky to me.  We have only seen them do it once for Joe Mauer and with prices going up I doubt the extensions some feel likely to happen will happen.  Trades are the more likely scenario.  I am sure they have room for one extension but again maximize your service time and don't waste it on player development that can happen in the minors.

 

The minor leagues are designed to get you as close to major league ready as possible.  You dominate a level and then move to the next one.  When you have nothing left to learn in the minors and do well then you get your shot. Although both players appear to be great they still have things they can learn and holding them back a year would be ideal to me.

 

If they both light up the minors and have nothing left to prove there then bring them up.  I have no problem with an earned promotion.  IMO they haven't earned it yet.