Article: 2014 Post-Mortem: Trevor Plouffe

[stringer bell]

The Twins 2014 season is over. It is hot stove league time, at least as far as my favorite team is concerned. Much virtual ink has been spilled discussing perhaps as many as a dozen key players. I thought I would blog about some of these guys and perhaps start a conversation. I will start with 2014 third baseman Trevor Plouffe.

 

Plouffe went into 2014 considered the "luckiest man alive" because top prospect and his eventual successor Miguel Sano was injured early in spring training and was out for the entire season.Plouffe came to camp looking strong and had a decent spring. He started out the regular season strongly as well. Trevor hit .307 in April with a robust .892 OPS.

 

Plouffe had his ups and downs during the season and hit the disabled list in mid-June. From then on, he played almost every day until he broke his forearm during the last home game of the season. He finished with a .258 batting average and .751 OPS setting personal bests for almost all offensive stats except home runs. Plouffe also had a positive defensive rating for the first time.

 

One word summarized Plouffe's season--improved--every facet of his game seemed to pick up a notch. He walked slightly more, struck out slightly less, hit better with runners on base and set a team record for doubles by a third baseman. As noted earlier, Trevor made large strides in playing third base. He seemed more focused, better positioned, and seems to have mastered the barehanded pickup and throw.

 

Plouffe has a reputation as a lefty masher and indeed he's always hit left handers better then righties, but this year he improved markedly against right-handed pitching, recording an OPS of .738 against same-handed hurlers. Off the score sheet, there seems to be improved focus, a better approach when hitting and certainly more maturity in dealing with the ups and downs of a long major league season playing for a 70 win team. He seems to be one of the leaders of the team, quite a change from when he was first promoted in 2010.

 

Plouffe's future remains cloudy despite his very good season. Sano should be healthy next year, hitting home runs in the upper minors. He most likely will get recalled sometime during the season and figures to displace Plouffe. I have always thought that Plouffe could move to another position and one outfield slot seems to be open. However, his strong season and relatively low salary--he'll be in his second year of arbitration eligibility-- would seem to make Plouffe desirable to some teams.

 

I think Trevor stays with the Twins this offseason. Sano remains a prospect and perhaps not a sure thing. Plouffe's RH bat is pretty valuable. If Sano does move up early, it is quite possible Plouffe will have to change positions. I think he could be a capable corner outfielder, although he probably would be pretty rough at first. My sense is that Plouffe is not done improving and that the best is yet to come from him.

 

However, depending on Sano's role, there is a possibility that Trevor's best might come in another uniform.

 

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[Cap'n Piranha]

The ideal scenario for the Twins is that Sano kills it in Chatty, while Plouffe looks good enough to fetch a handsome return at the deadline, allowing the farm system to continue to be stocked, but also letting Bocaton get his feet wet.

[Eephus]

Wonder if Plouffe is another Casey Blake in the making. Never going to be a superstar, but someone you look back and wish you still had on your team.

 

Gotta admit "post-mortem" seems like the wrong word for these bits.

[Mike Sixel]

I think Trevor is now under rated. He's slightly above average as a 3B.......that is super valuable. No way I deal him now, Sano is at least half a year away, if not more.Plus, he could be your RF or 1B or DH. Keep Trevor, and trust him.

[Dantes929]

If Sano does develop I would have no problem with a Plouffe/Arcia platoon. Arcia OPS .848 this year against righties and most pitchers are right handed. Plouffe .828 OPS career against lefties. We have enough true switch hitters that combining one position to get the proper splits makes some sense and leaves some good pop on the bench.

[Physics Guy]

I think it might be wise for the Twins to explore both Sano and Plouffe in the OF this year.  There are still doubts that Sano can stick at 3B, so why not try him in RF a bit.  Plouffe has worked to become a solid 3B.  I really want nothing to do with trading Plouffe until we are sure Sano can play 3B at a reasonable level.  If Plouffe or Sano appear to be satisfactory in RF, I say we could do a Sano/Arcia platoon.  Plouffe appears to have improved his splits to the point where he is not a liability against RHP.  Sit Sano against the best RHP and Arcia against the better LHP.  Plouffe or Sano could play RF when Arcia sits.  Depending on whether Vargas maintains his level from this year, there may also be AB's at DH. 

 

That being said, I doubt this would come into play until June at the earliest with Sano missing the entire season.  He needs to play winter ball and show he is ready coming into Spring Training.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Plouffe is a success story. Bruno seems to have improved him at the plate, Molitor in the field, and Gardy.. by just having faith in him after everyone else was ready to give up. He's not an all star, but he's a keeper.

[DocBauer]

Not sure how or why my first comment on this thread didn't get carried over, but regardless, I'm a fan of Plouffe.

 

I absolutely believe Sano will take over the spot at some juncture, hopefully sooner rather than later, Plouffe has turned himself in to a quality ML 3B. I have a serious problem with the idea that some have of trading him at this point as I feel he is not only of great current value to us, but I also think the roster is too fluid to make a move at this point. He may never be a star player, but his defense has gone from concern to average, possibly above. And his overall offensive numbers, across the board, put him in the upper third in the league.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think you trade him when Sano forces it, not until them. If Sano rakes in AA next year (and possibly AAA), then Plouffe becomes and offseason trade candidate or the default LF if that is still a problem. I'm not sure I'd want him in the OF as I think I'd rather keep him at 3B.

[Willihammer]

What if Plouffe 2013 shows up?

[Dantes929]

What if Plouffe 2013 shows up?

What if Plouffe June/July 2012 shows up?

[Physics Guy]

I'll take Plouffe 2014 and be happy.

[ashbury]

I'll take Plouffe 2014 and be happy.

Plouffe 2014 against White Sox (1.084 OPS) or Plouffe 2014 against Indians (.471)? 

[Physics Guy]

Plouffe 2014 against White Sox (1.084 OPS) or Plouffe 2014 against Indians (.471)? 

How about halfway in between?  .777 OPS

[USAFChief]

Plouffe 2014 against White Sox (1.084 OPS) or Plouffe 2014 against Indians (.471)? 

yes.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What if Plouffe 2013 shows up?

There's risk. There's also upside (as 2012 showed us). I don't think anyone would argue that. But you are also looking at younger talent that's more likely to improve (as he did this year) than to get worse. He was already one of the better 3B in the league last season, and while I think he has value, a second season doing that would make him very valuable and allow the Twins time to see if Sano forces the issue. I'd much rather roll the dice with Plouffe who has demonstrated that he can play 3B above average at the MLB level then on Sano who may need time to knock off the rust and hasn't exactly played much in the high minors. This is a decision that should be punted to next season in my opinion.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

What will having broken his arm do to his progress this year? I'm curious to see how he swings the bat early in the year.

[Willihammer]

 

 

There's risk. There's also upside (as 2012 showed us). I don't think anyone would argue that. But you are also looking at younger talent that's more likely to improve (as he did this year) than to get worse. He was already one of the better 3B in the league last season, and while I think he has value, a second season doing that would make him very valuable and allow the Twins time to see if Sano forces the issue. I'd much rather roll the dice with Plouffe who has demonstrated that he can play 3B above average at the MLB level then on Sano who may need time to knock off the rust and hasn't exactly played much in the high minors. This is a decision that should be punted to next season in my opinion.

I generally agree with that reasoning but Plouffe has burned his backers before. Between his age, recent production, years of control, I suspect his stock is at a high water mark and is more likely to nosedive than continue rising.

 

Also, Escobar's cut out perfectly to be the bridge to Sano IMO. There isn't room at DH-1B for Sano to get regular playing time. He'll have to play third to get regular at bats.

[Trov]

I think who becomes manager might have an impact on Plouffe's future.  I could see being possible extra outfield and 3b.  I would like to see more Escobar at 3b with Santana settling in at SS.  I could see Plouffe filling in at 3b when either is hurt or needs rest, and going to OF when facing lefty and Arcia needs to sit.  This all depends on what trades or FA are signed and injuries as well. 

[Physics Guy]

I think who becomes manager might have an impact on Plouffe's future.  I could see being possible extra outfield and 3b.  I would like to see more Escobar at 3b with Santana settling in at SS.  I could see Plouffe filling in at 3b when either is hurt or needs rest, and going to OF when facing lefty and Arcia needs to sit.  This all depends on what trades or FA are signed and injuries as well. 

So you are saying Escobar deserves to play over Plouffe?  You will have a hard time convincing me of that one. 

[DocBauer]

Looking at a ML 3B comparison as presented on MLB.com, where they listed 22 3B for reasons I'm not completely sure of, perhaps total AB's?, I found the following information.

 

Plouffe was first in doubles. He was 10th in HR, tied for 5th place in RBI, 17th in BA, tied for 13th in OB%, 9th in SLG, and 10th in OPS.

 

With his vastly improved defense, that's a solid, quality 3B that a lot of teams could use. Not saying his trade value is super high, just saying that's a valuable ballplayer. You keep that kind of player until you have someone better to replace him. Could he revert? Of course he could. But considering he's really improved his game, overall, year to year for the last couple of years, he's just as likely, if not more so, to be as good or better next season.

 

Until Sano is ready, in my mind, you keep Plouffe and be really happy you have him.

[Physics Guy]

Plouffe's greatest value to the team is that he gives them above average performance at little cost.  I agree, you keep him around until you have better options or you have to start paying him above his production level.  He needs to take another step up if he wants a big payday when he becomes a FA.  He would need to either get his BA up above .270 or get the SLG back towards .450.