Article: The Merits of Mientkiewicz and Molitor

[Nick Nelson]

Last month I wrote about the potential benefits Doug Mientkiewicz could provide as the next Twins manager. At the time, I didn't really think Ron Gardenhire would be dismissed, so it was a largely hypothetical piece, but now that Mientkiewicz is actually a legitimate contender -- and maybe even a front-runner -- to lead the club in 2015, I thought I'd revisit the subject.Mientkiewicz had his formal interview for the job on Thursday, one day after Paul Molitor did the same. National ball scribe Bob Nightengale tweeted that the two former first basemen are considered finalists for the position, which isn't surprising given this team's penchant for promoting from within and the high standings of these two in the organization.

 

I'll be honest: I'm not acutely familiar with either individual's tactical approach or managerial style (I don't think anyone is in Molitor's case, since he's never managed). But it's easy to draw some clear distinctions between the two. And as I examine those distinctions, I can't help but feel like Mientkiewicz is the far more interesting and compelling choice.

 

In many ways, there's an old-school versus new-school dynamic at play here. Molitor, at 58, is nearly two decades older. He retired from playing in 1998, the same year Mientkiewicz made his MLB debut. In terms of experience, there's no comparison. Molitor had a much longer career as a player and has been involved in coaching and instructing since Mientkiewicz was first breaking into the league.

 

But Molitor's distance from his playing days could be viewed as a mark against him. Obviously, the Twins' turnaround -- which hopefully will begin to take place next year -- is going to be built around youth. Will these incoming prospects be able to relate and connect with him in the same way as a guy who retired only five years ago, and who has been working directly with many of them in Ft. Myers over the last couple seasons?

 

That's an important question, in my mind, especially when you consider that one of the most common complaints about Gardenhire (and his predecessor, Tom Kelly) was a perceived inability to recognize and maximize the impact of good young talent. Too often, it seemed that Gardy and TK would eschew the excitement and upside of a capable yet inexperienced youth in favor of the established veteran.

 

As I see it, an ability to get the most out of young players, and a willingness to help them through struggles and learning curves, should be the foremost consideration in selecting a new skipper. I'm not saying Molitor can't excel in this area, but on the surface, Mientkiewicz appears more well equipped.

 

There is also the matter of insularity. This is a preeminent concern for many who would like to see the organization break away from its longstanding habit of maintaining continuity and drawing from the same well when it comes to hiring coaches and execs. After four straight miserable years, people want change -- real change.

 

It's not clear that Molitor wouldn't provide that, but he's got deep roots in Minnesota. He was a finalist to take over for Kelly in 2001 before Gardenhire landed the job, and has been involved with the Twins extensively since then. He spent one year in Seattle as a hitting coach in 2004, but then returned as a roving minor-league instructor and filled that role for nine years before being added to the major-league staff in 2014.

 

Molitor has plenty of respect as a baseball mind, around the game and here in Minny especially, but when you look at his track record you can't help but ask questions. Why did he only last one year in Seattle? And in the decade since, how come no other team has lured him away to serve as manager or in some other prominent role? Maybe he never had interest, but why now?

 

Mientkiewicz spent much of his playing career in Minnesota, but after being traded away in 2004, he moved through six different organizations (Red Sox, Yankees, Royals, Mets, Pirates, Dodgers) in six years. He's been around the block, and has been exposed to many different cultures and philosophies. And although he has managed the Twins' Single-A affiliate for the past two years, he hasn't worked on Gardenhire's staff.

 

When the Twins hired Molitor into his new role a year ago, the Hall of Famer said it was possibly his "last opportunity to get back in the game at the major league level." Does a guy who, by his own admission, might be reaching the end of the rope make sense for a team seeking to modernize and break through with a crop of young talent?

 

Even looking beyond his obvious strong points -- his fiery passion, his familiarity with the incoming prospects, his history of winning (a World Series, an Olympic title and most recently a Florida State League Championship) -- Mientkiewicz seems like the better choice for the Twins on a fundamental level.

 

If he and Molitor are indeed the top candidates for the position, I know which one I prefer from afar.

 

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[Trautmann13]

I have never been on the Molitor train as much as most, and you bringing up that Mientkiewicz has been around these young guys could be interesting. I think that Wicz should manage while Molitor stays on staff at his current position or some other. 

[Steven Buhr]

Several critical aspects weren't mentioned here and while I prefer Mientkiewicz as a candidate over Molitor by a slight margin, I think a fair analysis requires some additional information be considered.

 

Age is one factor, but in terms of being able to relate to the next wave of young players, I think you have to consider the fact that Molitor has been at least as involved in the development of guys like Buxton and Sano (and others) as Mientkiewicz has. In fact, media reports have both of the Twins' top prospects strongly voicing support for Molitor, who worked directly with them in his role as a minor league instructor.

 

Molitor has at least as much of a pedigree related to more modern analytical metrics as Mientkiewicz, who admittedly is not much in to the "SABR" approach.

 

Questioning why Molitor hasn;t been offered other opportunities is kind of a non-issue with me. It was pretty well established that during certain periods, he was not interested in positions that required full time travel due to family matters. His renewed interest recently coincided with children getting a bit older. If you minimize that factor, perhaps you haven't faced a similar family dynamic.

 

I like both guys as options. Either could be excellent managers. They have very different personalities and I'm not sure, frankly, which is more conducive to leading the Twins at this point. But Molitor is a baseball savant and has an excellent rapport with many of the players coming up through the organization, just as Mientkiewicz does.

 

The only advantage I give Mientkiewicz is that I could imagine him as a Twins manager for a more extended period in to the future than Molitor. That's a very slim advantage.

[Paul Pleiss]

I like Douggie Baseball, and we debated the merits of Doug or Paul taking over the reins of the team on last night's Talk to Contact. For me, I'll take the youth movement and Douggie B. I like the fire I keep hearing about in interviews with and about him from minor league guys. I like that even down at A-ball, he puts a big emphasis on winning and creating that winning atmosphere. The Twins need that.

[clutterheart]

Why isn't Gene Glynn getting more consideration?

 

Here is a guy who learned under Madden in the Rays organization. Here is a guy who has won at the AAA level with changing rosters and dubious talent.

 

He is getting no steam

[TheLeviathan]

SD Buhr nailed my thoughts, this came off as a Dougie pimping, Molly downplaying article. I'm really not sure this was the most fair presentation of the debate and certainly didn't fit the title. I'm ok with either of these guys, but I was hoping when I clicked on this to hear the actual merits of both candidates. I did not get that here until SD's comments.

 

So it appears to me that this is what each guy has going for him:

 

Molly

More open to SABR thinking, shifting, etc.

Our two best position prospects are vocal cheerleaders for him

Keen mind for the game

More of a "teacher" type of coach

 

Dougie

Has actual managerial experience (including winning baseball at his level)

More of a "motivator" type of coach

Younger and more identifiable with young players

Has more recent experience in other organizations

 

I can see the case both ways - maybe we can have both with one serving as the bench coach?

Edited October 3, 2014 by TheLeviathan

[USAFChief]

I strongly prefer someone from outside the org.

 

But if it does come down to these two, I agree with Nick. Look forward, not back, and go with DM.

[tobi0040]

I think SD and Leviathan bring up some interesting points.

 

While Doug has probably worked with 40-50 young players, here are the seven guys that will have the biggest impact on making the Twins relevant again:

 

Buxton - played 90 games for Doug, has been very complimentary of Molitor

Sano - played 56 games for Doug, has been very complimentary of Molitor

JO - 96 innings under Doug

Meyer- Never played for Doug

May - Never played for Doug

Gordon - Never played for Doug

Kohl - Never played for Doug

 

So I don't really see the connection to the future as a huge selling point for Doug. If he is more identifiable with younger players maybe, but being a first ballot HOF probably doesn't hurt Molitors credibility with young players. 

 

Here would be my two deal-breakers:

 

If Doug really said he is not a huge SABR guy.  Didn't we just get rid of a gritty, hard nosed guy that does not think math plays a big role in the game?  This kind of reminds me of a guy that is sick of his wife of 20 years, divorces her and then re-marries someone that is identical to her.  Can someone please send the link? I have not been able to find it.

 

I also don't put much stock in Dougs handful of years of managerial experience. Paul Molitor is more than capable of constructing a lineup, yelling at umps, and playing the matchup game with the pen late in games.  The fact that he played an extra 10 years at a much higher level should offset that IMO.

 

I guess I don't see Doug's strengths as anythng close to weaknesses for Molitor.

 

I think Molitors deal-breaker is how long is he willing to commit to managing this team. Obviously you can only go off of verbal commitment, but if is less than three years I don't really see the point.

[Lazarus]

I think the biggest question that has to be answered with Dougie is his maturity to handle the pressures of a major league manager's job.  His fight last year with an opposing manager leaves an open question on whether he is "ready now" or if he needs another couple of years.  The pressures that he'll face from the media (traditional and social) and also from older players who are more likely to challenge him than the 19-23 year olds that he has managed in Ft. Myers will be a big change.

 

At 58, I don't see Mollie staying as manager until he's 70 so Dougie could get another chance in a couple of years.  In the meantime, he could be moved to another level in the organization to see how he handles another managing environment, preferably with older players.

 

Whoever they hire, they need two things written into their contracts:

1) Have at least two coaches from the Caribbean/Latin America; and

2) A requirement to turn in the baseball to the team when the win the World Series.

[brvama]

I have not been a lead cheerleader for Molitor, nor has he been my favorite.  However I agree that some of his attributes have been downplayed.

 

First, I think one cannot overlooked the HOF credentials he brings.  That gives a level of accomplishment that should, and does, bring immediate attention to young players.  Being a HOFer brings a respect that seems make it easier to listen and learn from one of the best, especially someone that humble and accessible.  Another example of such would be Rod Carew.   

 

Second and probably less significant, Mollie has also seen baseball outside of MN, having played in Milwaukee and Toronto.  Mient does have more of that in a shorter career.

 

Actually, I am starting warm more toward Molitor and less for Mientkiewicz.

[Willihammer]

In many ways, there's an old-school versus new-school dynamic at play here.

From what tidbits I've been able to gather, Dougie is actually more of an old school guy than Molitor. If you listened to Reusse ask him (Mientkiewicz) about analytics, for example, Doug's response was basically "yeah we'll listen" but ultimately settled on "I believe in the eye test."

[Brock Beauchamp]

I lean toward Molitor but have warmed up on Mientkiewicz in recent weeks.

 

Not mentioned in this article is that we have slightly more information on Molitor... Which makes this discussion hard to qualify Dougie's merits.

 

But we do know that Molitor doesn't shy away from sabr stats and advanced metrics. That's a huge plus in his favor. This isn't terribly surprising, as he was a cerebral player who actually improved in his 30s. He's obviously a student of the game and isn't afraid to embrace new concepts as they arrive.

 

Does Doug have the same ability, a desire to change approaches as new information is discovered? I don't know... He was a fiery player but I'm not sure he was a cerebral player.

 

And after 13 years of Gardenhire, a guy who often did things because "that's the way they've always been done", I lean toward the guy who I know is going to evolve with the times, even if he's a year older than Gardenhire.

 

Of course, Mientkiewicz could be capable of doing the same... We simply don't know.

[tobi0040]

From what tidbits I've been able to gather, Dougie is actually more of an old school guy than Molitor. If you listened to Reusse ask him (Mientkiewicz) about analytics, for example, Doug's response was basically "yeah we'll listen" but ultimately settled on "I believe in the eye test."

 

Doug is 40 years old and has spent probably 35 of those on baseball diamonds.  Success in high school, college, olympics, and won a world series under a program that heaviliy relies on analytics.  And has managed for two years. 

 

At this point in his life, "will listen" is not good enoug for me.  If he isn't there yet, I don't want to hand over the reins and hope we have a convert later.

Edited October 3, 2014 by tobi0040

[Willihammer]

The other thing with hiring a young guy, I think you have to be doubly sure he's the right choice. Because if the Twins history is any indication, he'll be here a while. I don't want to find out we hired Gardy 2.0 and then be stuck with him forever.

 

For that reason, hiring an older guy doesn't scare me that much. Its ok to swap out managers more than twice every 30 years.

[Mike Sixel]

I've lost interest in Mientkiewicz completely. He is as old skewl as they get. The Twins need to embrace the concept that you can learn how to be better at what you do from almost any angle....and Dougie is 100% not there from what we can tell.

 

And, ya, a guy that starts a fight as your leader? Not a fan. Pass.

[brvama]

We certainly don't know what the management has its priorities in a coach, but I would think that stability in the managers chair is near the top as well as getting the best out of the players.  We know that PM is an excellent teacher and DM brings that fire..  My concern though is that 'fire' could be a detriment, ala Ozzie Guillen. 

 

Along that same line of thinking, Mientkiewicz still could use a bit more honing.  I have enough questions that I would like to see more of him before I'd select him as the next manager.

[davidc3915]

My gut feeling is they go with Molitor because there may be a thought that going with a hall-of-fame Minnesota legend would potentially sell more tickets than Doug would.  I realize that most people dont buy a baseball ticket to see the manager, but it's been done before (re. Ozzie in Miami).

[Nick Nelson]

Good comments so far. I will say that I think the most important part of the article is the last two words: "from afar." I don't know enough about either of these guys to form real strong opinions and I'm mainly just riffing on some of the more outwardly visible differences.

 

I do think that putting tons of stock into quotes about them from minor-league players, or a passing remark about SABR and stats from a radio interview, is a little dubious. Also, personally I think awareness/acceptance of those principles is a lot more important in the process of composing a roster than managing it, but that's just me.

[tobi0040]

Good comments so far. I will say that I think the most important part of the article is the last two words: "from afar." I don't know enough about either of these guys to form real strong opinions and I'm mainly just riffing on some of the more outwardly visible differences.

 

I do think that putting tons of stock into quotes about them from minor-league players, or a passing remark about SABR and stats from a radio interview, is a little dubious. Also, personally I think awareness/acceptance of those principles is a lot more important in the process of composing a roster than managing it, but that's just me.

 

I agree with you about the from afar part, parsing words, etc..  But we are lunatic fans and this is all we have to go on.

 

I also agree the GM plays a huge role in costructing the roster based on SABR type metrics.  But lineup constrution and platooning are on the coach too, and being open to and driving defensive shifting shows me that Molitor views the game as an evolving one and he seems more open to me.  Admittedly from afar.

[Mike Sixel]

Managing is all about playing the odds.......not sacrifice bunting in the third inning, not IBB, not a lot of old school stuff, so we'll disagree on the importance of stats in managing and coaching.

 

We can only go off the information we have, the only information we have about Dougie and his thoughts on the fact this is 2014, and not 1990, is what he said in that interview. 

[nicksaviking]

I agree with Mike, DM seems much more likely to continue "old school" baseball tactics.  With Molitor, we at least know that he was the driving force behind the Twins reluctant usage of defensive shifts. 

 

I do think DM likely would bring some energy to the club and likely be a motivator for the young guys.  Still that will fade over time.

 

These better not be the only two candidates.  Ryan said he'd look outside the organization and implied that Latin managers would be considered.  I don't care if the search goes into December, keep looking. 

 

These two likely both would be nice managers, but this needs to be done right, and as there are 29 other teams with countless employees who may be managerial candidates, the odds are pretty slim that the option that would be most successful here is actually in house.

[tobi0040]

I agree with Mike, DM seems much more likely to continue "old school" baseball tactics.  With Molitor, we at least know that he was the driving force behind the Twins reluctant usage of defensive shifts. 

 

I do think DM likely would bring some energy to the club and likely be a motivator for the young guys.  Still that will fade over time.

 

These better not be the only two candidates.  Ryan said he'd look outside the organization and implied that Latin managers would be considered.  I don't care if the search goes into December, keep looking. 

 

These two likely both would be nice managers, but this needs to be done right, and as there are 29 other teams with countless employees who may be managerial candidates, the odds are pretty slim that the option that would be most successful here is actually in house.

 

I am of the belief that our next manager is almost a lock to be Molitor or Doug.  I think from a PR perspective, we simply need to interview outside to check a box. I have no way of confirming that external guys did not have a fair shot, only a way of confirming I am wrong if they go exernal.

Edited October 3, 2014 by tobi0040

[TheLeviathan]

I do think that putting tons of stock into quotes about them from minor-league players, or a passing remark about SABR and stats from a radio interview, is a little dubious. Also, personally I think awareness/acceptance of those principles is a lot more important in the process of composing a roster than managing it, but that's just me.

 

I guess I don't understand why this distinction is all that important.  We have to do that for either guy.  What can be said on SABR is that we KNOW Molitor believes in parts of it and has been a major part in implementing it with the big league club.  Dougie is a mystery, but his comments indicate he's not as likely to be a proponent.  

 

One of the biggest day to day weaknesses of this club the last few years has been an unwillingness to embrace SABR ideas in a day to day context, I think characterizing that knowledge as more for GMs than managers is a really hard opinion to swallow.  In fact, I couldn't disagree more vehemently with that characterization.

[Raven]

Good thoughts and info on Paul and Doug.  If these were the only 2 options I'd have to agree and go with Doug.  However, I think these recent years have shown that there's nothing necessarily positive about bringing someone up from within the organization.  A new boss from elsewhere is needed to shake things up.  The status quo sure hasn't worked.

[nicksaviking]

I am of the belief that our next manager is almost a lock to be Molitor or Doug.  I think from a PR perspective, we simply need to interview outside to check a box. I have no way of confirming that external guys did not have a fair shot, only a way of confirming I am wrong if they go exernal.

 

I don't want Ozzie Guillen, but I do want his opinion.  I have no doubt that if he gets asked by a reporter that he will honestly say if the Twins gave him a fair shot.  I'd at least like to get a reading of the authenticity of the "outside" search.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't see why both cannot be on the ML staff next year. For the Saber reason alone, I'd probably prefer Molly, but something tells me that Dougie could bring some advantage to the clubhouse as well, particularly in motivating and relating to younger guys as well as helping out on teaching defense.

[tobi0040]

I don't want Ozzie Guillen, but I do want his opinion.  I have no doubt that if he gets asked by a reporter that he will honestly say if the Twins gave him a fair shot.  I'd at least like to get a reading of the authenticity of the "outside" search.

 

Agree on the authenticity part.   But I am not sure Ozzie is the best example.  I think the Twins could have a credible search without including him at all. 

[nicksaviking]

 

 

One of the biggest day to day weaknesses of this club the last few years has been an unwillingness to embrace SABR ideas in a day to day context, I think characterizing that knowledge as more for GMs than managers is a really hard opinion to swallow.  In fact, I couldn't disagree more vehemently with that characterization.

 

 

Your not suggesting that picking and choosing when to use SABR theories based simply on if they fit your already concrete opinions is antithetical to their success?

 

It's almost like you think you either embrace them or you don't, otherwise they do not do you much good.

Edited October 3, 2014 by nicksaviking

[nicksaviking]

I don't see why both cannot be on the ML staff next year. For the Saber reason alone, I'd probably prefer Molly, but something tells me that Dougie could bring some advantage to the clubhouse as well, particularly in motivating and relating to younger guys as well as helping out on teaching defense.

 

Plus they both bring that Latin flavor to the coaching staff that Ryan claimed to want.

[nicksaviking]

Agree on the authenticity part.   But I am not sure Ozzie is the best example.  I think the Twins could have a credible search without including him at all. 

 

I agree, but more sane options probably wouldn't throw the Twins front office under the bus if they got snubbed as it might come across as detrimental to future opportunities.  Guillen doesn't seem to have those kind of hesitations.