Article: Should the Twins Emulate the Royals?

[Nick Nelson]

On Friday night, the Kansas City Royals clinched a playoff spot for the first time in 29 years. It will be a short postseason appearance if they can't beat the Athletics on Tuesday, but finally KC has emerged from the void.

 

The Twins, now coming off their fourth straight "rebuilding year" where little progress was shown in the win/loss column, are becoming familiar with a dynamic that characterized the Royals throughout their lengthy drought: the moving goalpost. A finish line that inches further away as you race toward it.While wallowing near the bottom of the AL Central and perpetually searching for a way out, the Royals often sported an impressive collection of minor-league talent. Understandably, they tended to be protective of those assets, considering them the lifeblood of their rebuilding process.

 

But, as tends to be the case, things didn't always work out. Rising stars fizzled along the way. Injuries struck. Prospects that were expected to be cornerstones ended up being merely 'OK.'

 

A batter is considered successful if he gets a hit three out of every ten trips to the plate. As much as we'd like to believe otherwise, player development isn't a whole lot different.

 

The Twins have a soundly designed plan to return to relevancy, but it is a plan based around uncertainties. I think they were rather unlucky this year with the major injuries to their two best prospects, but setbacks and side-tracks in the minors are nothing out of the norm.

 

No matter what kind of stats and scouting reports you print out, you just never know what you have until a player reaches the majors, and even then it usually takes a while to get a clear picture.

 

At one point it appeared that the Royals would tailor an effective rebuild around Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, who a few years ago were both considered elite young talents at the level we currently view Byron Buxon and Miguel Sano.

 

Both Hosmer and Moustakas took much longer than anticipated to develop. And this year, while they each contributed in Kansas City's strong season, neither has been all that great. Instead, it is the pitching staff that has been key to the franchise's revival, and leading that staff is the guy who they'll turn to on Tuesday night: James Shields.

 

The Royals, of course, acquired Shields two years ago in a deal that was highly controversial and widely criticized. In order to acquire the frontline starter from Tampa Bay, Kansas City had to part with a premium package of prospects headlined by Wil Myers, who was considered a Top 5 player in the minors.

 

The move was kind of baffling. The Royals were coming off a 90-loss season and hadn't won more than 75 games in a decade. What were they doing trading their best prospect -- a major-league ready star in the making -- for a 30-year-old whose impact figured to be immediate and short-lived?

 

It's worked out well enough. The Royals won 86 games last year and 89 this year, their two highest totals since 1990. And through all of that, Shields has performed exactly as advertised -- a durable, inning-eating ace, setting the example in a rotation that has seen incredible improvement.

 

It's hard to look at Kansas City's reemergence and not wonder about the Twins. Most around here recognize the importance of homegrown talent, and we're reminded of the upside offered by that talent regularly, but there's something to be said about the boldness of Dayton Moore's dramatic shift in approach and the results that have been yielded.

 

Various injury concerns surround some of the top prospects, but Minnesota's system still contains a number of young players that would be highly appealing to other clubs, particularly in this age of skyrocketing free agent salaries.

 

How protective should Terry Ryan be of guys like Sano, Buxton, Alex Meyer and Jose Berrios? For that matter, what about those that have already successfully debuted, like Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas and Danny Santana?

 

I'm not entirely sure where I fall on the subject. I can see the wisdom of both sides, but as I examine the lengthy stagnant cycles that have plagued organizations like the Royals, and as I size up the marketability problems being faced by the Twins, I must admit that I find myself questioning the conservative route.

 

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[Paul Pleiss]

If the Twins have a chance to add a guy like Shields, for more than a rental, I think moving unproven young prospects makes sense. It might be hard to handle, giving up a prospect and his potential, but you're getting a proven "ace" who has already realized his potential. Prospect hype is fun to hope on, but established players need to be a big part of any successful team.

 

Don't trade them all, you need young, cost-controlled players to round out a roster, but you have to be willing to give some talent to get some back. It might hurt to trade Sano and watch him become a 30 HR guy for the better part of the next decade, but if the return was 2 seasons of Johnny Cueto, Max Scherzer, or some other front of the line guy, wouldn't you make that deal?

[Dantes929]

Would you have traded Mike Trout three years ago for CC Sabbathia? Its ok if you say yes, I'm just saying there is the possibility that Buxton or Sano rocket to the top and the rental doesn't perform or gets hurt. The problem I have with pointing to the Royals is that they are just a team that a rebuild through the farm system didn't work. San Fran built their team the same way and won two world series. Tampa built their team the same way and got to the WS once and the league championship 3 more times playing in the East. The Twins did it back in the early 80's and again in 2002 and enjoyed good stretches of winning. Not all prospects pan out but all all stars were top prospects at one point. No need to trade any of it. I am all for pulling the trigger on one AL blue chip pitcher such as Shields or Lester. The Twins had a good offensive season and should just get better. The cupboard isn't bare for pitching either like it was the last three years. I believe there is the talent that could make up a supporting cast or better with the addition of just one good pitcher. Shields, Hughes, Gibson, and two of Meyer, May, Milone, Nolasco would suit me just fine with Barrios and Stewart among those on the fast track to help in a couple years.

[Seth Stohs]

I kind of agree... I don't know that they're untouchable, but like Paul said, it would have to be for a young pitcher with a track record and a couple more years of cost control. 

 

I'd add that Alex Gordon, who should be a strong MVP candidate this year, took several years to become the player he has become the last two seasons. 

 

I believe that the core should be team-developed, but there needs to be some supplementing.

[Kwak]

"A batter is considered successful if he gets a hit one out of every ten trips to the plate."

 

Hmm, ah, No.

 

I am in favor (in principle) of trading prospects for proven talent.  Though, each possible trade must be scutinized--not many are worth it.  Top talent makes a huge difference.  In the rotation, acquisition of a #1 pushes every one else down a spot to face (theoretically) a weaker opposing pitcher.  I firmly believe that Johan Santana transformed the Twins from a contender to a consistent winner by being a true #1.  But a trade for a sound #2 would be a huge boost.  Vargas made a huge impact on the offense when he was promoted.  Remember Willingham in '12? Then compare his next two seasons with '12--huge!  Adding the equivalent of either a true #2 or a hitter who produces like Willingham in '12 substantially changes the Twins.

[SarasotaBill]

KC is a wildcard team and Shields is a free agent.

 

I don't want to copy that formula.

 

If you want a Ace, then sign Lester or Shields as a free agent.

 

Only trade a top prospect for a young cost controlled player.

 

Think long term (6-8 years) not short term (2 years).

[Paul Pleiss]

 

 

Think long term (6-8 years) not short term (2 years).

 At some point you have to stop thinking long term and start thinking short term and take a team that is rebuilding to a team that is performing. If the team keeps building for the future, the future will never be more than a dream for next season.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm guessing the point about a batter being successful is a typo 1 out of 10 trips will make for a very short major league stay..... Hicks wasn't that bad

 

Should we emulate KC? I'd say no. I didn't like the Meyers move given that they weren't in a situation where they just needed a pitcher. Moore went all in on a single pair. It didn't pay off last season, and while they made the playoffs this year, that could very well be a 1 game thing. I would not trade Buxton or Sano for 2 years of 2013/14 Shields, and that's about what it cost them. There are too many holes on this team to fill.

[stringer bell]

The Twins should emulate KC in a couple ways.  1)  Preventing runs--the Royals have a number of Gold Glove defenders, including their catcher, first baseman and left fielder.  They have developed a good and deep pitching staff.  2)  Hang on to power arms.  Don't give up on great arms, many can be developed into outstanding bullpen arms.

[SarasotaBill]

Short term moves are used to go from a playoff team to a world series team.

 

Not from a below 500 club to a wild card team like KC did.

 

Unless the Twins sign Lester or another ace, the pitching staff will be in transition in 2015 but the staff should be good for 5-6 years after that.

[TheLeviathan]

The answer is yes, but that opportunity may be a year away.

[Blackjack]

When the Twins get closer, meaning they've won 85 games and one more stud pitcher would put them over the hump, then make a trade -- but do it from a position of excess, third base, DH, or some other position of excess. They have Pinto, Arcia, and Vargas all needing at bats, and the first two are poor defensively, trade one of them.

[stringer bell]

Another nit to pick with the original article is four consecutive rebuilding years. I was thinking playoffs in the spring of 2011, as were most of us. Everyone got hurt, those that didn't get injured didn't perform and the season was a spectacular failure, but not a rebuilding year.

[USAFChief]

Short term moves are used to go from a playoff team to a world series team.

 

Not from a below 500 club to a wild card team like KC did.

 

Unless the Twins sign Lester or another ace, the pitching staff will be in transition in 2015 but the staff should be good for 5-6 years after that.

I think it's basically impossible to predict anything about anything in baseball for the next " 5-6 years."

 

Heck, it's difficult to predict next year.

[The Wise One]

It worked forKC this year. I did  not work last year with a better ptching staff. How many teams have added players to no avai

[Brock Beauchamp]

KC is a wildcard team and Shields is a free agent.

 

I don't want to copy that formula.

 

If you want a Ace, then sign Lester or Shields as a free agent.

 

Only trade a top prospect for a young cost controlled player.

 

Think long term (6-8 years) not short term (2 years).

This. Giving up Sano-level talent at this point is foolish, just as I thought KC was foolish for doing it two years ago.

 

Rebuilds take time and the Twins don't have an abundance of talent at any position, certainly not enough to start trading top prospects.

 

If you want an "ace", go buy one. Unlike the Royals, the Twins have the money to do that.

 

Personally, I'd bank on May, Meyer, and Berrios in 2015 and let it ride. It's time for the kids to play.

 

If that fails spectacularly, then go find a pitcher next offseason.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I thought 4 straight losing seasons was emulating the Royals.

 

ba-dum-tiss.

[Rosterman]

Emulate KC? What the twins have to do is stop playing it safe. They almost did it this year, signing Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey. Wish they had signed anyone else but Pelfrey. But the years before the added Willingham instead of keeping Cuddyer (yes, Cuddyer was worse than Josh that first year) and Correia. Two able-bodied, yet flat players. 

 

Since '91 the Twins have been content to field a competitive team, looking at what the division holds and hoping everyone else plays flat or bad and they could win the division. In the 2000's they did that quite a bit.

 

Prospects are just that...prospects. Who would've thought Joe Benson, Terry Ryan's five-tool guy, would be a bust. That Aaron Hicks would be less than average. Who saw Danny Santana making the successful freshman jump? Can he sustain it as a rookie. Pinto and Parmelee had shining callups but flat-lined. Parmelee the man without a true position and Pinto the man not given his position. Vargas and Arcia are promising works in progress. Dozier was a half-year sensation, but is he a longterm fix?

 

Will Buxton, Sano, Michael, Rosario, Koch, etc. be in the lineup fulltime in 2016. Will they be crushing the ball in 2017/2017, of be like the rookies of lore of the Royals? o you trade them anyways, hoping someone else is in the pipeline come 2017/2018/2019.

 

Do yousign a free agent. Giving Mauer money and 5-6-7 years and down-the-line regretting it?

 

Do you keep your own free agents. Would Cuddyer have hit the same in Minnesota dn be worth the extra $10 million they saved with Willingham. Did the Twins totally lowball Morneau, who was lowballed by the Rockies, too.

 

Can the Twins figure out line-up construction, bullpen construction, and the Billy Beane way of trading guys when they have more value (Willingham, Burton, Fien, Delmon Young, pretty much anyone) than wait another year expecting them to shine even more. Kinda like keeping a pitcher in the game for one batter or one inning too much, or not knowing to bat someone third or second when they are slumping and should probably be batting sixth or seventh, but wait, you don't have a leadoff guy, let alone a cleanup hitter, so everyone can't bat low in the order, right?

 

The Royals, overall, have been cheaper than the Twins because of attendance. They were in first place and drawing flies.

 

The Twins still had decent attendance, they have the bucks, they have the payroll space to not only spend, but absorb $15-20-25 million of worthless salary. They did it this year, with Pelfrey, basically Mauer was stagnant, Nolasco can't be that bad. Man, close to $40 million right there. Whew! 

 

Where did the extra $20 mill go from this year. Where did the extra monies from last year end up? Again, the Twins are playing the safe game. Like hey are anticipating loss in games AND revenue. "We will field a payroll of only $70 million because our attendance may dip even lower next year" is the thought instead of "let's really go and spend and if we win, they will come, and we can return to sellouts in the beautiful outdoor world of baseball at Target Field, the fun and entertainment of the new Saints stadium be damned and come and enjoy family-priced sports as you drive by that grand church of Sunday-only sports on your way to good food, good seats, wonderful skyline, TC Bear, and a winning team in 2015 that not only makes the wildcard, but goes deep into the playoffs in...well, stay with us thru 2015...in 2016."

 

Can the Twins trade prospects? Can they sign real free agents? Can they play smart baseball? They sign draftees within budget. They get minor league free agents that perform. They trade or grab others that fill holes well for a time. But they don't do well on free agents, and they don't do well on trades, overall. Not that anyone does. But the Twins "scores" seem to diminish in the eyes of what other teams successfully do.

[nytwinsfan]

The Twins may already have their Shields. His name is Phil Hughes. One year doesn't make someone an Ace, but I really don't think it makes sense to trade for a Shields like player yet, especially since we have Hughes. We are not at the KC stage of failed rebuild, at least yet. Give it another year or two.

[Mike Sixel]

KC was filled with "can't miss" prospects that missed. I don't understand the utter fear of dealing minor league players for proven MLB talent. 

 

Nick's right, the goal posts have been moved the last two years here, at what point do they stop moving, and you actually try to be good? What if they stink again next year, should the fans and the owners just wait another year to try to be good? Just keep moving the goal posts?

[Dantes929]

I would be all for a Shields/Lester type of guy right now. They have the space and it is the kind of short term move that does not require giving up anything. Of course prospects don't always pan out but all "proven players" were at one point prospects and we have enough good ones to hang our hats on and wait for them to develop. Short term thinking got us Young for Garza and Capps for Ramos. It doesn't have to be choose 1-2 years or 6-8. I am thinking 2-4 but certainly never give up on any team. Anyway, Shields would theoretically give us several more wins and innings which will save the bullpen which if you remember a month ago cost us about 5 games from overuse. Add in development from Meyer and May and we are getting back to where we should be. As USchief said "its difficult to predict next year" we are becoming used to predicting prospects won't develop but that isn't a given. Hicks and Benson not developing (yet) has no bearing whatsoever on Sano, Meyer and Buxton.

[Mike Sixel]

Young was not short term thinking, it was just wrong thinking.

[nicksaviking]

I'd rather the Twins emulate the team from the other side of Missouri.  Hire scourts who can identify young pitchers who have the potential to throw hard AND hit the strikezone and hire minor league pitching coaches who know what to do to get them to the majors.  Use your free agency cash on mid to top tier offensive players to suppliment the talented young position players you already have.  And do not waste your budget or roster spots on replacement level free agents.  Give those spots to guys in AAA, they will not be significantly worse. 

Edited September 29, 2014 by nicksaviking

[iTwins]

Emulate KC? You mean by pushing your biggest chips "all in" before you actually have a good hand to play? KC may be playoff bound, but are they deep enough to actually make a run - to actually win a World Series? I have my doubts. Is that the goal? Just to make the playoffs? Or should we be focused on not just building a team that gets in, but a team that can make a run? I'd pick the latter.

 

 

KC went all in and grabbed a wildcard this year. If Shields walks in free agency, they'll be back to where they were before the trade - a solid core but not quite having the pieces to contend...except they won't have a young core of well regarded prospects, those went to Tampa Bay so they could make the playoffs...once.

 

 

There are sound elements to want to duplicate - building an offensive core around your young prospects as well as building a great bullpen with multiple flamethrowing power arms but the exact execution of their plan was botched. Dayton Moore was on the hot seat, panicked and made a splash to save his job. It worked, but the long term cost may have done more harm than good.

 

 

So no, I don't want to the Twins to emulate the Royals. I want the Twins to see the Royals hurt a long, patient rebuild by going big a bit too soon. Hopefully the Twins learn from the Royals and manage to pull off their rebuild a bit more efficiently.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think the Royals this year are a bit better than just Shields. He may walk after this year, but I don't think they are going to lose that much talent compared to what they currently have.

The Royals probably have a shorter shopping list than most of the AL Central.

 

The Tigers need to re-build their bullpen (again) and will probably need to replace Scherzer and V-Mart;

Cleveland needs major offensive and defensive upgrades in the infield, and RF, and DH.

The Sox are a mess.

The Twins are still a mess.

 

The Royals? They probably will need to replace James Shields and find a bench bat or two with Willingham and Ibanez likely retiring.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think the Royals this year are a bit better than just Shields. He may walk after this year, but I don't think they are going to lose that much talent compared to what they currently have.

Absolutely not. The Royals have quite a bit of talent but let's remember one important thing here:

 

With James Shields, the Royals have won 86 and 89 games.

 

How many are they going to win without him? They're a fringe contender with James Shields. It's going to be really hard to be better without him even if more young players step forward in 2015 and if the Royals are going to continue to make postseason appearances, they're going to need to be better than 86 and 89 wins a season.

[Monkeypaws]

Short term moves are used to go from a playoff team to a world series team.

 

Not from a below 500 club to a wild card team like KC did.

 

Unless the Twins sign Lester or another ace, the pitching staff will be in transition in 2015 but the staff should be good for 5-6 years after that.

Couldn't say it any better.

 

Another nit to pick with the original article is four consecutive rebuilding years. I was thinking playoffs in the spring of 2011, as were most of us. Everyone got hurt, those that didn't get injured didn't perform and the season was a spectacular failure, but not a rebuilding year.

 

Agree - 2011 was a face plant, 2012 and 2013 were denial.  2014 the Twins finally embraced the rebuild, and even then is was somewhat reluctantly.

 

So we've only really been rebuilding for a year or so.

Edited September 29, 2014 by Monkeypaws

[markos]

It is way too early to think about making a blockbuster trade using prospects. To mimic the Royal's situation with the Myers-Shields trade, the Twins need to wait until the following happens:

 

Buxton and Sano are called up and both disappoint for a couple seasons. One is barely above replacement level and the other is only league-average. However, Arcia blossoms late and becomes a borderline MVP candidate. Most of the lineup is in an okay place, and they really just need the young guys to continue to take steps forward. On the pitching side, basically every starter fails - Meyer (control), May (just bad), Berrios (TJ) and Stewart (shoulder) all fail as starters, and the rotation is Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson and two questions marks. However, the bullpen is top-notch with 3-4 pitchers regularly hitting 100.

 

If something like that plays out, THEN they could consider trading Nick Gordon for the last two years of Jose Fernandez. 

[jharaldson]

Wil Myers had an OPS of .614 this year and a fWAR of -.1.  Even if you only count the pre-injury numbers and assume his wrist injury and layoff caused an end of year slump he had an OPS of .666.  The fact is that prospect often don't work out and that hoarding them isn't always the right tactic.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

Wil Myers had an OPS of .614 this year and a fWAR of -.1.  Even if you only count the pre-injury numbers and assume his wrist injury and layoff caused an end of year slump he had an OPS of .666.  The fact is that prospect often don't work out and that hoarding them isn't always the right tactic.  

No, hoarding prospects isn't the right move all the time.

 

But I believe trying to jump from 70 wins to 90 wins in a season through trades is the wrong move.

 

If the Royals finished 2013 with 82 wins and picked up two years of David Price for Wil Myers to put them into the 90 win range in 2014 and 2015, I'd be all for it.

 

Get to 80 wins through savvy pick-ups and internal development, then go for broke. Otherwise you're just trying to force the issue.