The Kansas City Royals

[USAFChief]

Oh, for sure. There are upsides and downsides to each strategy.

 

My personal preference is that you set a goal of 80-ish wins through internal development. At that point, you evaluate projected performance, potential minor league additions, and then consider "going for it" and start adding pieces at the expense of your long-term development (ie. trading away pieces of the farm for MLB impact players).

 

It's reasonable to try to go from 80 wins to 90 wins in a season. Teams do it all the time. I don't think it's reasonable to try to go from 70 wins a season to 90 wins in a single season. That involves an abundance of dumb luck. I'm not a fan of relying on dumb luck as a strategy.

Two problems with this as I see it:

 

If KC waits to make the Shields trade, the don't win 175 games over the past two years.

 

If they wait, there might not be a James Shields available in trade when they finally decide to pull the trigger.

 

I also think it's convenient to pass off KC's return to relevance as dumb luck. As Mike said, part of being a GM is having some idea of where you are likely to be two years from now, and making moves now to improve on that. That's very hard, I admit, but part of the job. If you wait around and wait around for perfect clarity, afraid of moving without it, you likely have missed some opportunities and might not be able to get what you need then anyway.

[Mike Sixel]

There is no perfect clarity. Who thought both justin and Joe would get hurt?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I also think it's convenient to pass off KC's return to relevance as dumb luck.

But I didn't say that. I said that going from 70 wins to the playoffs in a single season involves a healthy dose of dumb luck... and it does. Teams need more than just a couple of free agents to improve 20 games in a single season. They need prospect development, player health, and sustained free agent performance to make that kind of jump in the standings. Sure, some of those things can be controlled to an extent... But to hit on all three in a single season involves a fair amount of dumb luck.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There is no perfect clarity. Who thought both justin and Joe would get hurt?

I look back at the 2006 and 2010 Twins squads and just shake my head. So much talent, so much potential, thwarted by crap luck. Sure, the Twins could have picked up more pieces mid-season and maybe that would have pushed them over the top but had their core just stayed healthy, we probably would have witnessed at least one ALCS berth.

 

Losing Liriano and Morneau, two of the Twins best four players in those respective seasons, still stings a bit.

[ashbury]

But to hit on all three in a single season involves a fair amount of dumb luck.

Or, the ability to work on more than just one thing at a time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Or, the ability to work on more than just one thing at a time.

Still, the GM can't control player health. You can pursue players you believe to be workhorses but as illustrated by guys like Ricky Nolasco, a player is only healthy until he isn't.

[kab21]

I certainly agree with the second paragraph, not to waste 2-3 years of Sano and Buxton, but assuming they come up this year, it probably isn't until 2016 or 17 that the team is really ready to move, having those years be the equivalent of 13 and 14 for the current KC team.

 

As this relates to this offseason, I think it makes sense to do signings that fill holes (SP, OF), but maintain flexibility going forward in both roster space and payroll. One reason I am starting to think a big FA SP splash might best be delayed a year or two, and to instead pursue more upside, short term guys this offseason for the rotation.

 

I would also argue, and I'm sure you would agree, that it would be a bad time for the Twins to make a Shields trade, where they would trade one of their elite prospects for two years of a horse.

 

The lesson from the Royals is not that it is impossible to go from 90 losses to competitiveness, but that it is important to understand the talent cycle of an organization and to be aggressive at the right time. I still think the Twins are one or two years away.

 

You are assuming that there will be a top pitcher available in a year or two.  that may or may not be the case.

 

At no time have I suggested that the Twins trade Buxton or Sano.  I have suggested that Myers wasn't as elite as people thought at the time of the trade though.  He had a high floor but as a corner OF his upside wasn't sky high.  But I would consider trading other prospects as early as this year.

[TheLeviathan]

But I didn't say that. I said that going from 70 wins to the playoffs in a single season involves a healthy dose of dumb luck... and it does. Teams need more than just a couple of free agents to improve 20 games in a single season. They need prospect development, player health, and sustained free agent performance to make that kind of jump in the standings. Sure, some of those things can be controlled to an extent... But to hit on all three in a single season involves a fair amount of dumb luck.

 

The picture you paint of the 2014 Royals doesn't seem true.  Infante has been bad and Vargas has only been ok.  Their health has been fine but one could argue if there was a time machine to go back and tell the Royals before the Shields deal that Moustakas, Hosmer, and Butler would combine for barely 30 homeruns and a sub .700 OPS he might never even make the deal.  So this glorious prospect development you speak of hasn't been nearly as widespread as you make it out to be.  In fact, they've largely been disappointing.

 

I'd argue the Royals made quite a bit of their own luck.  It could've failed, but there were ways for them to recoup some value if it had.  Doing nothing two years ago?  That would've assured failure.

[Willihammer]

I know this is about the Royals but you can look at the other team in the ALCS too. If you'd told Dan Duquette that Manny Machado and Matt WIeters would get injured and Chris Davis would get suspended for Adderall usage would he have given up two draft picks to sign Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez?

[TheLeviathan]

I know this is about the Royals but you can look at the other team in the ALCS too. If you'd told Dan Duquette that Manny Machado and Matt WIeters would get injured and Chris Davis would get suspended for Adderall usage would he have given up two draft picks to sign Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez?

 

Nope he would not have.  Another example of making your own luck rather than waiting for it to happen.

[drjim]

You are assuming that there will be a top pitcher available in a year or two.  that may or may not be the case.

 

At no time have I suggested that the Twins trade Buxton or Sano.  I have suggested that Myers wasn't as elite as people thought at the time of the trade though.  He had a high floor but as a corner OF his upside wasn't sky high.  But I would consider trading other prospects as early as this year.

 

I don't think they should trade Sano or Buxton either and I have always agreed with that take on Myers. Teams don't get burned by trading corner OF unless they become multiple all stars.

 

I also agree the Twins could certainly be in position to trade prospects this offseason (outside of Sano and Buxton), I just don't don't know if they would bring back much, and I would be hesitant to trade prospects for guys in the last year of a deal. I wouldn't hesitate to trade Meyer for a SP that is controlled for multiple years.

[h2oface]

I think the risks the Royals took make it happen.  Good for them.  Prospects can be so over rated, especially if you trade them off when they finally become the player that can help win you championships.  If you favor the sabr.......... all the wrong teams have advanced.  Baseball is so much more than stats.  Intangibles win World Series', not the season boxes.  I do like champions to get to play for the championship, so I have to go with Baltimore and St. Louis now.  I really don't like wild cards getting hot and winning.  Their reward is to get to play in the playoffs.  Still..... it would be fun to see the Royals continue the spirited play and surprise everyone, and bring the championship to the "lowly" AL Central.

[Steven Buhr]

I don't think they should trade Sano or Buxton either and I have always agreed with that take on Myers. Teams don't get burned by trading corner OF unless they become multiple all stars.

 

I also agree the Twins could certainly be in position to trade prospects this offseason (outside of Sano and Buxton), I just don't don't know if they would bring back much, and I would be hesitant to trade prospects for guys in the last year of a deal. I wouldn't hesitate to trade Meyer for a SP that is controlled for multiple years.

I agree that trading corner OF prospects is a relatively low-risk proposition. Maybe that’s because it seems like relatively few of them project among a team’s top prospects. I assume their rankings are dampened a bit by not playing a premium defensive position.

 

If you look at Seth’s “preliminary” rankings for Twins prospects, none of his top 10 are corner OFs, unless you want to project Sano as ending up there.

 

But half of his next ten are, or may reasonably be projected as, corner OFs: Rosario, Walker, Kepler, Harrison and Minier. I like those players. I think every one of them could become regulars in an outfield for a good MLB team (and a couple could arrive in the bigs within the next year or two). But there isn’t one of them I would hesitate to trade to significantly improve my starting pitching over the next couple years and, honestly, I’m not sure Wil Myers was that much of a better prospect than some of these guys when the Royals dealt him (though he certainly was considered such by the “professionals”).

 

Of course, that trade wasn’t just Shields for Myers, either. There were a bunch of other pieces. Enough that I still have trouble figuring out who had to give up what to make it all even out.