Article: If I Owned the Twins

[tobi0040]

SD. I think if we had clarity that Sano was a DH and Vargas will always rake here. I would move Sano for cole in a second. But not until we have clarity.

[GoGonzoJournal]

Bats like Sano and Vargas don't come around very often, and there is some versatility in the roster to keep both. Mauer can play third or OF, Sano first, Vargas DH. If I were going to deal a bat, it would be Pinto, since there's a two-year logjam at catcher and an even bigger one at DH. Might have to throw in another prospect, though.

 

IF... IF... Vargas is really that good going forward, can you consider a Sano trade for a young ace you'll have on staff for a while?

[Steven Buhr]

You aren't alone on liking the idea of Ozzie Guillen because I know a lot of people who feel that way. I'm just not really one of them. There are aspects of his personality and managing philosophy I like a lot, but I just feel like with him, HE ends up being "the story" far too often for my tastes.

[Steven Buhr]

SD. I think if we had clarity that Sano was a DH and Vargas will always rake here. I would move Sano for cole in a second. But not until we have clarity.

Unfortunately, that level of clarity is a ways off and in fact may not materialize for years to come. Sometimes, you have to take risks as a GM.

 

That said, I'm not sure it's a risk I would take either, at this point.

[Steven Buhr]

Bats like Sano and Vargas don't come around very often, and there is some versatility in the roster to keep both. Mauer can play third or OF, Sano first, Vargas DH. If I were going to deal a bat, it would be Pinto, since there's a two-year logjam at catcher and an even bigger one at DH. Might have to throw in another prospect, though.

 

I agree with you on all points except the "Mauer can play third or OF" part.

 

First, when you look at the talented OF prospects that will begin to logjam within the next year or two, I don't believe there will be room for Mauer in the Twins OF. Second, I think people underestimate how hard it is to play a MLB level third base. If being athletic was all it required, I wouldn't have any question that Sano would stick there. He's every bit as athletic as Mauer and then some.

 

As for dealing Pinto, sure. But he's not going to bring you the return we're talking about here.

[mlhouse]

The Twins have made huge mistakes the past few years by stalling the call up of their young players.  The conservative, step by step approach they have taken made sense when they had a team that won games.  But after several 90+ loss seasons they had the ability to "rush" some of these prospects and see what they could do.

 

Instead they populated the roster with a bunch of mediocrities that will never be anything more.

 

Look at the 1982 Twins season.  That should have been the model for the rebuild from the start.  Some prospects fail:  for example the "original" centerfielder of the Twins 80 rebuild was Jim Eisenreich.  When he unfortunately did not work out we just found someone else named Kirby Puckett.  But where would the Twins be if they would have waited another year or two on Eisenrreich, or Lenny Faedo, or several other prospects? That would have delayed Puckett's emergence and the World Series championships of 87 and 91 might never have happened.

[DocBauer]

You aren't alone on liking the idea of Ozzie Guillen because I know a lot of people who feel that way. I'm just not really one of them. There are aspects of his personality and managing philosophy I like a lot, but I just feel like with him, HE ends up being "the story" far too often for my tastes.

I'm with you on this. I don't have anything against Ozzie. And baseball wise, he was a quality player defensively and offensively. He's shown some nice ability as a manager, and has shown an aggressive approach. My problem is that he's a little too fiery for me. And as you said, often likes to be the story himself. I get the impression a lot of people like him simply because he has an affinity for the Twins.

 

If the Twins do make the move at manager, I have pretty good feelings about Mauer and Dougie M both. A pair of young guys who both seem to have good baseball minds, appear to have good communication skills, will carry on the Twins Way while bringing a younger and fresher approach, and have first hand knowledge/experience with most of all the young prospects arrived or on their way. Something Kelly and Gardenhire each had with the previous "new waves" that have come and gone. I don't think that should be dismissed.

 

But I'd like to see a veteran baseball guy to be the new manager's right hand/bench coach. Ozzie could be great for that. But has he mellowed enough now to be content in that role? If not, would Charlie Manuel be willing to come down from the Phillies FO to assume this sort of "mentoring" role? I'd keep Bruno. I'd keep Cuellar. I'd keep Molitor and Steinbach as well. While I have tremendous respect for both Vavra and Ullger, I'd find other roles in the organization for them and bring on a quality Latin coach like say...Julio Franco maybe? He had a long and successful career, played the infield, was a quality hitter, and has a tremendous passion for the game. That would leave one coaching position for, I don't know, maybe Watkins?

[DocBauer]

The top 20 pitchers in WAR: (according to ESPN)

 

1 Clayton Kershaw 7.64

2 Corey Kluber 6.87

3 Chris Sale 6.59

4 Felix Hernandez 6.37

5 Cole Hamels 6.33

6 Johnny Cueto 6.14

7 Adam Wainwright 6.05

8 Max Scherzer 5.81

9 Jake Arrieta 5.3

10 Dallas Keuchel 5.18

11 Tanner Roark 5.16

12 Rick Porcello 4.44

13 Jordan Zimmermann 4.37

14 Garrett Richards 4.35

15 Collin McHugh 4.32

16 Phil Hughes 4.29

17 Henderson Alvarez 4.21

18 Zack Greinke 4.19

19 Masahiro Tanaka 4.1

20 Alex Cobb 4.01

No Lester? Is this list just for this season? Guessing it must be.

 

In a dream world, if the Twins broke the bank and DID make that HUGE SP move, left handed, 31 next season, he'd be my first choice. Scherzer #2, (30) followed by Shields probably (33). If KC would let Shields leave, he's the biggest risk, but also probably requires the least investment. But unless the market cools down, big salary teams just saying enough already, won't Lester and Scherzer demand 6-7 years at over $20M per?

[Linus]

Wow the Twins took a castoff and turned him into an ace for $7 million per year. They must have a shrewd GM and effective pitching coach.

[tobi0040]

No Lester? Is this list just for this season? Guessing it must be.

 

In a dream world, if the Twins broke the bank and DID make that HUGE SP move, left handed, 31 next season, he'd be my first choice. Scherzer #2, (30) followed by Shields probably (33). If KC would let Shields leave, he's the biggest risk, but also probably requires the least investment. But unless the market cools down, big salary teams just saying enough already, won't Lester and Scherzer demand 6-7 years at over $20M per?

 

Max turned down 6-144 before the season started (24 a year).  He has been healthy and dominant again.  No reason to think that offer would not still be there, with bidding driving it higher.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I just don't see a lot of meaningful changes happening before next season. Changes? Yes, but just not meaningful ones. 

 

Another thing we need to start doing is selling high on current and minor league players, especially if we aren't buying into the results. I feel like we buy low every now and then and take chances, but rarely do we do a good sell high, even when its an obvious thing to do. I am thinking 'Will from two years ago as an obvious one.

 

I am not buying Santana's rookie results, think Dozier will drop off next year greatly, KS is not replicating his offensive numbers and is terrible framer too. Package some of these guys with a decent to good prospect for some big moves. Maybe Stewart? I don't think he ever lives up to the original hype, whatever anyone says about the reasons for his low k/9 numbers are.

[Pius Jefferson]

The Twins have made huge mistakes the past few years by stalling the call up of their young players.  The conservative, step by step approach they have taken made sense when they had a team that won games.  But after several 90+ loss seasons they had the ability to "rush" some of these prospects and see what they could do.

 

Instead they populated the roster with a bunch of mediocrities that will never be anything more.

 

Look at the 1982 Twins season.  That should have been the model for the rebuild from the start.  Some prospects fail:  for example the "original" centerfielder of the Twins 80 rebuild was Jim Eisenreich.  When he unfortunately did not work out we just found someone else named Kirby Puckett.  But where would the Twins be if they would have waited another year or two on Eisenrreich, or Lenny Faedo, or several other prospects? That would have delayed Puckett's emergence and the World Series championships of 87 and 91 might never have happened.

 

They rushed Vargas and Santan from AA to the majors. The only thing keeping Sano out the majors this season was TJ surgery and a healthy Buxton very likely would have gotten a cup of coffee.

[shimrod]

They rushed Vargas and Santana from AA to the majors.

 

What does it say about the ML roster and staff that the two players they "rushed" outplayed the incumbents? You're making his point. How many more of our MiL prospects could put up better numbers given the opportunity?

 

My biggest gripe with Gardy is the toleration of bad play. He talks about accountability but keeps putting up with base-running gaffes and boneheaded play that TK wouldn't tolerate. I loved watching the TK era Twins play the game. Gardy's bunch make me cringe.

[Thrylos]

I think that all 3 of the people pictured should go.  Unless Pohlad cares, he should sell to someone who cares, and if he cares he should fire his president and start over with a baseball person who can build a winning culture.

 

Jerry Bell (who was hired before the '87 season, btw) retired before the 2011 season and St. Peter took over.  I think that this and the Twins' record afterwards are not coincidental but consequential.

 

The Strib writers can really go for the low hanging fruit, otherwise they will lose "privileges" with the club.

[tobi0040]

 Unless Pohlad cares, he should sell to someone who cares,.

 

The only reason I can pinpoint keeping the team is some vow he made to his Dad.  He does  not like the limelight, is not competitive, does not need to feed his ego, and the value of the team has risen a ton. 

 

Please sell.

[drjim]

The only reason I can pinpoint keeping the team is some vow he made to his Dad.  He does  not like the limelight, is not competitive, does not need to feed his ego, and the value of the team has risen a ton. 

 

Please sell.

 

Are you sure he's not competitive? Or that he doesn't have an ego?

 

The role of an owner is to hire good people, set a solid budget and get out of the way. He does the last, the second isn't an issue at the moment, and his actions this offseason will shed some light on the first.

[drjim]

I think that all 3 of the people pictured should go.  Unless Pohlad cares, he should sell to someone who cares, and if he cares he should fire his president and start over with a baseball person who can build a winning culture.

 

Jerry Bell (who was hired before the '87 season, btw) retired before the 2011 season and St. Peter took over.  I think that this and the Twins' record afterwards are not coincidental but consequential.

 

The Strib writers can really go for the low hanging fruit, otherwise they will lose "privileges" with the club.

 

St. Peter has been president since 2002. Some would say as soon as he took over the position the team started a decent run.

[old nurse]

They rushed Vargas and Santan from AA to the majors. The only thing keeping Sano out the majors this season was TJ surgery and a healthy Buxton very likely would have gotten a cup of coffee.

I was not aware that Santana and Vargas played o poorly that they showed they did not belong. It is not rushing when they show they belong.

Edited September 26, 2014 by old nurse

[Thrylos]

St. Peter has been president since 2002. Some would say as soon as he took over the position the team started a decent run.

 

Yeah.  But his boss was Bell who was also Ryan's boss. 

[Mike Sixel]

We have no idea what Pohlad really thinks....None.

[Paul Pleiss]

Dave, I keep reading about how attendance is going to drop next year. I’m telling you that it won’t. If it does, the attendance in your office will drop by one.Click here to view the article

Oh this was so good.

 

SD for president!

[Steven Buhr]

Oh this was so good.

 

SD for president!

 

I'd ask "President of what?" but it really doesn't matter. I can't think of anything I'd want to be President of, at this time.

[GoGonzoJournal]

In a dream world, if the Twins broke the bank and DID make that HUGE SP move, left handed, 31 next season, he'd be my first choice. Scherzer #2, (30) followed by Shields probably (33). If KC would let Shields leave, he's the biggest risk, but also probably requires the least investment. But unless the market cools down, big salary teams just saying enough already, won't Lester and Scherzer demand 6-7 years at over $20M per?

 

How is nobody discussing Ervin Santana as a possible free agent acquisition? Ryan offered him three years earlier this season, and his changeup is nasty. He could take pressure off Nolasco, so he can get some confidence vs. #3 starters instead of #1s, which Hughes will obviously handle next season. And we have the money. $15 million a year for three years is reasonable. That's a very serviceable top three, and with what looks to be an improving offense (sixth in runs with 4.39 per game), we can afford to be 24th in ERA (that would be an ERA around 4.1) or even 27th (4.29), but not 29th (4.58).

Edited September 27, 2014 by GoGonzoJournal

[Pius Jefferson]

I was not aware that Santana and Vargas played o poorly that they showed they did not belong. It is not rushing when they show they belong.

 

One doesn't have anything to do with the other.

[tobi0040]

Are you sure he's not competitive? Or that he doesn't have an ego?

 

The role of an owner is to hire good people, set a solid budget and get out of the way. He does the last, the second isn't an issue at the moment, and his actions this offseason will shed some light on the first.

I don't know him. But from what I can tell. Making a speech or sitting on tv for half an inning tells me he would rather be anywhere else in the world. The payroll tells me he is not going broke trying to field a great team

 

If you take a step back, it is the self made guys like cuban, jerry jones, and daniel snyder that seek out and buy a team to inflate their ego's and they are extremely competitive. You can tell when they lose they are dying inside. They love being the face of the team.

 

The pohlads inherited 2 billion dollars and a baseball team. Very different dynamic

Edited September 28, 2014 by tobi0040

[Willihammer]

Re: The 1B/DH logjam.

I disagree with any plan that has Pinto spending his prime years on the bench in a backup role. He's overqualified for that job. It would be wasteful. The Twins need to find a way to turn one of Vargas, Pinto or Mauer into an asset they can actually use. Maybe that means talking to a team like the Dodgers about a contract swap - Mauer for Kemp or Crawford. If Joe wants to catch again (and I have no reason to believe he does), that might be a  way to get him to waive his NTC. I'd also feel out the market for Vargas. He is young enough to dream big about, maybe there's a GM out there who would make a big offer for him.

[The Wise One]

One doesn't have anything to do with the other.

Being rushed implies they were not ready for the major leagues. Like Hicks. Could you enlighten me on how they were rushed?  Would Berrios be considered rushed to AAA?  Polanco fit the bill in going to AA? You can play at a level or you can't. If you can't play at a level higher than a level you had not played much at then you were rushed. If you can, somebody did right by the player.

[Paul Pleiss]

I'd ask "President of what?" but it really doesn't matter. I can't think of anything I'd want to be President of, at this time.

 President of drinking beer and being handsome.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I just have to say I absolutely love this article. 

Don't necessarily know that I agree with Sano & Buxton starting right away in 2015, but I just love the rest of it.

 

You said nothing of Rick Anderson, but I have to believe his departure would be part of it.

 

It will be interesting to see what the off season brings.

[drjim]

Re: The 1B/DH logjam.

I disagree with any plan that has Pinto spending his prime years on the bench in a backup role. He's overqualified for that job. It would be wasteful. The Twins need to find a way to turn one of Vargas, Pinto or Mauer into an asset they can actually use. Maybe that means talking to a team like the Dodgers about a contract swap - Mauer for Kemp or Crawford. If Joe wants to catch again (and I have no reason to believe he does), that might be a  way to get him to waive his NTC. I'd also feel out the market for Vargas. He is young enough to dream big about, maybe there's a GM out there who would make a big offer for him.

 

You have a lot of confidence that Pinto, Vargas and Mauer will all be productive next year. And at the same time none of the three will really have that much trade value since Pinto and Vargas have questionable defensive value. What is wrong with depth?