Article: The Twins Have a Problem

[Nick Nelson]

For the past several years, my parents have been part of a season ticket group, buying 10 games from a full 81-game package along with several other parties.

 

The couple running the group has been season ticket holders for a long, long time, and they had worked their way into some pretty prime seats on the lower deck, directly behind home plate and just beneath the overhang.

 

I enjoyed this arrangement because invariably I would be invited to use one or both tickets several times per year. But a couple weeks ago my dad called me with a message that didn't come as a total surprise: "They're not renewing the tickets."

 

When I heard that news, I immediately thought to myself, "This team is in trouble."This season ticket group was a bunch of hardcore Twins fans, especially the actual seat-holders. But even they could no longer justify the cost, especially at a time where all games after July consistently carry no level of drama or intrigue. It's a drain.

 

The new ballpark honeymoon period has passed, and now there's going to be a newer stadium over in St. Paul. The All-Star Game has come and gone. The Twins now have to rely more than ever on the quality of their product on the field and, for yet another season, that product has been flat-out lousy.

 

It's not just that this team is bad. They're worse than bad. This is going to be their fourth straight finish with a bottom-five W/L record in the majors.

 

While you can point at several individual positive developments, and numerous unfortunate setbacks that weren't really controllable, the bottom line is that there have been no tangible signs of progress. The Twins will finish with fewer losses than last year, but barely.

 

We've already seen the attendance decline take effect. They're currently at about 2.2 million through the gate this year, so they're going to fall short of their last year at the Metrodome (2.4 million in 2009). If my parents' season ticket group, along with several others I've been hearing about, are any indication, that decline is only going to steepen.

 

The Twins need to do something to jolt the fan base and stir some kind of buzz. But a big roster shakeup doesn't seem to be in the plans; there just aren't many areas where it's realistic to expect major additions.

 

A change in leadership would at least signal a dissatisfaction with the stagnant results and a sense of urgency to get things going, but that also does not seem to be in the plans. Terry Ryan, based on everything I've heard, is entrenched in his position as long as he wants it. Ryan hinted that Ron Gardenhire will also be back next year, and while the team later backed off that statement a bit, it's probably accurate.

 

All the assistant coaches are on one-year deals, and thus facing renewal or removal, so I would guess we'll see some turnover there. It should probably start with Rick Anderson.

 

But the last staff shakeup was little more than a rearrangement. And is the shuffling of assistant coaches really going to strike any skeptical season ticket renewer as a sufficient overhaul?

 

I, personally, can see the light for the Twins. I follow closely enough to know that they were set back by a number of unfortunate events in the minors this year, and that a sizable wave of premium talent is heading this way (or already developing on the field). I do think this young core can succeed with the existing leadership in place, because I mostly trust Ryan and I don't think Gardy matters much one way or the other.

 

But the majority of fans don't follow as closely as I, or most readers of this blog. Most casual fans I talk to can barely identify with the team anymore, and have only faintly heard the names Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano.

 

And right or wrong, this organization's constant commitment to loyalty, promoting from within, and sticking with the guys they like in the face of historically awful results comes off to many as arrogant and insular. There's a reason that a recent rose-colored marketing survey has been nationally criticized as tone-deaf and absurd. The Twins say they get it, but do they?

 

"They're always one year away," my co-worker grumbled over lunch the other day while I was trying to emphasize the quality of the young players who are -- hopefully -- on the verge of arriving and changing this pitiful culture.

 

It's hard to disagree. And in fact "one year away" might seem generous with the complete lack of progress that we've seen in three straight. Until that magical turnaround season finally comes, how many more fans can the team afford to lose to disinterest while steadfastly staying the course? At what point do major changes become a business necessity rather than a strategic decision?

 

I don't know the answer, but what I can say is this: The dwindling crowds at the ballpark, the stagnating traffic and activity on sites like ours, and the increasingly ambivalent attitudes of local baseball fans that I encounter all clearly signify that the Twins are fading from the public sports consciousness to an alarming degree.

 

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[beckmt]

This is a problem I have commented on before.  Twins are now faced with the issue of creating a buzz for the product. Let's look at reality. 

1.  Twins are unlikey to sign an ace pitcher.  Too much money and too much risk(though the Twins payroll can probably afford it, but do not think they could sign either of the top two).

2.  Change field staff(again unlikely, but maybe a good chance of creating a buzz)

3.  Making a major trade (better way of getting a front line starter, depends on the price) (best target is Cinni).

 

I expect 3 will have to happen because the first two will not. Lot's of  risk, lots of gain.

[Paul Pleiss]

Do you think Cinci would package Cueto and some of their terrible over priced contracts in a deal with the Twins for a couple of their 10-25 level prospects?

[Paul Pleiss]

Also, I wish the name of this post was "The Twins have a fever" so I could post something like "and the only solution is more cow-bell"

[Platoon]

I don't like to trade prospects personally. I do like to trade middle of the road veterans who are having a career year. (See Willingham, Suzuki, Dozier). Not because they are "bad" ball players, but because you won't get better with them, you will remain stagnant. So if you are in a 4 year death spiral, move them on the high side. We can't (or won't) spend Yankee type money on a roster. In house is the other option. Until the core is established from your own system, buying a guy here or there does not win a division. As to the fan disconnect, the article is spot on. I have a son and son in law, both with tlong baseball backgrounds, who barely follow the scores, not to speak of watching the games. Me? I watch them, if only to fulfill my masochistic tendencies!

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I went to more games this year (10, plus the futures game) than I have since I was a teenager buying the $4 knothole Upper Deck GA Metrodome seats all summer. 

 

The Twins won 6 of those games, I count myself lucky to have seen that much success in this season. For a season ticket holder, I'm sure the losing as gotten really hard to swallow.  

 

I really enjoyed going to the games and I will be trying to beat my new Target Field attendance record. The silver lining for me is that I should be able to get some cheaper tickets in better locations.

 

I always have the hope that the team will improve, I think realistically it will be 2016 before they are in contention for a playoff spot and 2017 (if they continue to improve) before they are ready for winning a playoff game or two.

[HitInAPinch]

Do you think Cinci would package Cueto and some of their terrible over priced contracts in a deal with the Twins for a couple of their 10-25 level prospects?

3 little words:  Not a chance.  I think Cueto is overrated.  The weird delievery [like Lus Tiant] is covering up some pretty average stuff [like Lus Tiant].  This coming from a guy who loved to watch Tiant pitch.  The Twins [and us] have a pretty good history of overrating prospects.

[drjim]

One issue that you didn't mention that is much bigger is that the key sponsorships for the team (think Delta sky club, Budweiser roof deck) were 5 year deals that expire this year. The Twins are going to get crushed with their revenue streams starting next year. That is a much bigger deal than lack of renewal of season tickets.

 

They won't have quite the payroll space many have been speculating so far. They need to hope that the young (cheap) guys get good in a hurry and turn this thing around.

[tobi0040]

Of the four people that I personally know with season tickets,  two have not renewed and another is on the fence.  One of the couples actually stopped going to their games and have trouble selling them on stub hub.

 

This franchise needs to do something to get people interested.  The two that did not renew received a Brian Dozier life size cut out, followed by a phone call saying it was not too late to "upgrade".   I completely agree that firing a few assistant coaches and keeping Gardy is not going to be enough.  I think fans want to see him gone and they want to see better pitching.  Whether that is via trade or signing a top free agent starter.

 

I just wish we had an ownership group that did not need to pushed into adding top talent or firing a manager that needs to be fired.  It is always a financial decision.....if renewal rate drops below x, spend money this offseason. 

[Gernzy]

I'm going through the same thing. I don't know if I'm going to renew my season tickets. It's getting harder to find people who want to buy games, or even go with me!

[gunnarthor]

The only opinion that matters is the Pohlads and they have never shown a tendency to let PR affect their position.  They trust TR and so I expect he'll stay.  

[USAFChief]

This was pretty easy to see coming...this article could have been written last year. So it's hard to have much sympathy, and it's hard to believe they'll do what is necessary to turn this ship around.

 

And if they think Sano andBuxton will solve all their problems things are only going to get worse.

[Mike Sixel]

I only know a handful of people with tickets, only one is renewing. I can't see any reason a casual fan would go to watch this team.

 

As Hunter and Santana said, "they play for a future that never comes". I feel that way right now. "next year, they'll be good" has been typed on this site for 2 straight years. It is being typed here again this year. Well, to me and some of the people I know, there is no evidence that is true at all.

[jokin]

The only opinion that matters is the Pohlads and they have never shown a tendency to let PR affect their position.  They trust TR and so I expect he'll stay.  

 

Except at the end of last season:

 

 

Twins CEO Jim Pohlad finds team’s play “embarrassing”    

There is an urgency, Pohlad said, to making the Twins a contender.

“We don’t want to wait,” he said. “I’m not saying we’re not going to do two- or three- or four-year contracts, but that seven-, eight-year stuff is a killer.”   CEO Jim Pohlad told the media that, given the way the team has played, “it’s embarrassing to walk through the concourse”.

 

If he felt that way last September 13th, and then Pohlad opened the purse strings exactly into the 2, 3 and 4 year contracts as he himself desrcribed above, I've got to think he's feeling more "embarrassment in walking the concourse", and worse, feeling more panic when he walks through his own marketing department.

Edited September 24, 2014 by jokin

[tobi0040]

I only know a handful of people with tickets, only one is renewing. I can't see any reason a casual fan would go to watch this team.

 

As Hunter and Santana said, "they play for a future that never comes". I feel that way right now. "next year, they'll be good" has been typed on this site for 2 straight years. It is being typed here again this year. Well, to me and some of the people I know, there is no evidence that is true at all.

 

I have a friend that says the Twins don't sell baseball or entertainment, they sell hope. 

[tobi0040]

I only know a handful of people with tickets, only one is renewing. I can't see any reason a casual fan would go to watch this team.

 

As Hunter and Santana said, "they play for a future that never comes". I feel that way right now. "next year, they'll be good" has been typed on this site for 2 straight years. It is being typed here again this year. Well, to me and some of the people I know, there is no evidence that is true at all.

 

I typically go to 3-4 games a year, including two with my family of four.  I went once this year with a friend and that was 100% based on it being a day game and popping over to TF on a nice day instead of working.

 

So it is not just the season ticket holders.  I kind of wonder if they will be pushed to starting the year with Meyer or bringing up Sano/Buxton early.

[jokin]

This was pretty easy to see coming...this article could have been written last year. So it's hard to have much sympathy, and it's hard to believe they'll do what is necessary to turn this ship around.

 

And if they think Sano and Buxton will solve all their problems things are only going to get worse.

 

The thread I continue to hang on is that the Twins last offseason really made a significant effort to sign another front-end starter,  well AFTER they had already done their early offseason shopping for Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey.  If Pohlad stays true to his statement last year about not going out beyond a 4-year deal and still hope to get the phone ringing at the season ticket renewal desk, he's going to have to bite the bullet and sign a big name guy early when the FA window opens, and then pay out more in AAV.  And maybe look to trade for a buy-low candidate like Trevor Cahill, while they dump Nolasco's contract back to the NL.

[SheboyganBrats]

IMO, the erosion of the fan base is all about winning and losing.  I'm pretty much a diehard fan, and watching bad baseball has really been difficult.  Though I don't have season tickets, I usually go to about a dozen games a year and watch the rest on TV.  It's gotten to point that I change the channel when the starting pitcher starts to falter because I just can't stand to watch what seems like the inevitable failure to come. 

 

I don't think generating interest next year is simply a matter of changing field staff or FO personnel.  If the Twins did that, but essentially kept the same pitching staff and lineup, I don't think it would matter much after the initial excitement.  I think signing one of the top FA pitchers (Scherzer, Lester or Price) and Yasmani Tomas for LF would do a lot more to improve outcomes on the field, and, in turn, generate sustained fan interest.  I don't think any of this is going to happen, but it's just my view of what would make the most impact.

[James]

I have been buying season tickets with a group for the last 5 years.  I'm pretty sure that this year has been the last.  Of the group, all but two of us have decided that they don't want to buy in again.  So, it seems like time as a season ticket holder has come to an end.

 

It has been tougher and tougher to find people to go with me to games.  For the past two years, I haven't been able to find anyone that has been willing to pay full price for the seats (which are very similar to the seats that Nick described).  I have been trading the seats for a few beers each game.  That's pretty much the only way that I've been able to get people to go to the games with me (and I usually have 4 tickets to games).

 

I will probably still attend 10-15 games per year, but I can't see those tickets coming from splitting season tickets.  This article is very accurate, the Twins are in trouble.  I have a hard time seeing companies like Budweiser and Delta pulling their sponsorship.  It is the smaller companies that need to ensure that their marketing dollars are used in the most effective manner that will be leaving as their exposure will be dwindling.  

 

As for options to fix the issue, that is a more complicated issue.  It's likely that there is no one solution.  It is going to take a few things to turn this ship around. 

[tobi0040]

The thread I continue to hang on is that the Twins last offseason really made a significant effort to sign another front-end starter,  well AFTER they had already done their early offseason shopping for Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey.  If Pohlad stays true to his statement last year about not going out beyond a 4-year deal and still hope to get the phone ringing at the season ticket renewal desk, he's going to have to bite the bullet and sign a big name guy early when the FA window opens, and then pay out more in AAV.

 

IMO, the erosion of the fan base is all about winning and losing.  I'm pretty much a diehard fan, and watching bad baseball has really been difficult. 

I don't think generating interest next year is simply a matter of changing field staff or FO personnel.  If the Twins did that, but essentially kept the same pitching staff and lineup, I don't think it would matter much after the initial excitement.  I think signing one of the top FA pitchers (Scherzer, Lester or Price) and Yasmani Tomas for LF would do a lot more to improve outcomes on the field, and, in turn, generate sustained fan interest. 

 

I completely agree about winning and losing, a team that sniffs .500 next year, driven by a big free agent signing and young players coming up would stop much of the negativity. 

 

The issue is I think you have 3 FA pitchers that can help us and whether or not the Twins will do that.  I think Max and Lester get 6-8 year deals (Lester is almost a lock to the Red Sox).  CC received an 8 year deal with a 9th that vests when he was 29 I believe. Verlander received a 7 year deal when he was 30.  When it comes to those guys, a high AAV 4 year deal is a pipe dream because they are going to get $24-25M a year on the long deal anyway.  Shields is going to get 5 years IMO at $20M.  So a 4 year deal with more a year is probably less attractive than a 5 year deal.  4/90 is not better than 5/100 IMO.

 

Ervin is probably the most likely, but is he really an elite pitcher and does he make us much better?  His ERA+is 93 this year and it was 74 three years ago (sandwiched by a very good 127).  He has the making of another Nolasco type conract.

Edited September 24, 2014 by tobi0040

[h2oface]

The change has to be the general manager and the manager.  Immediately if not sooner.  I can't even bring myself to type the names.  Do it right now, still during the season to get more press.  Set Molitor as interim manager, and don't be in a hurry, but get out there first for all the prospects that could take the positions.  This needed to happen years ago.  It is more than time.  Do it now.  Today. 

[TheLeviathan]

This problem has been oncoming for two years.  The All-star game saved this team a considerable amount of it's season ticket holder numbers.  I wouldn't be shocked if that total was slashed into a fraction of what it was going into next year.  I fear even speculating how bad it could be.

 

And the worst part is that the Pohlads, by history, are not likely to see that and double down their efforts.  Instead they'll shrink back, cut costs and payroll, and roll the dice on the farm rather than aggressiveness in adding to the roster.

 

We really needed to be playing .500 ball with some genuine hope this year to stem that tide.  Now it might be another 2-3 years before we can even put casual butts in the seats.  I actually think, as good as this article is, that Nick might have understated how bad this could be for the team.

[tobi0040]

This problem has been oncoming for two years.  The All-star game saved this team a considerable amount of it's season ticket holder numbers.  I wouldn't be shocked if that total was slashed into a fraction of what it was going into next year.  I fear even speculating how bad it could be.

 

And the worst part is that the Pohlads, by history, are not likely to see that and double down their efforts.  Instead they'll shrink back, cut costs and payroll, and roll the dice on the farm rather than aggressiveness in adding to the roster.

 

We really needed to be playing .500 ball with some genuine hope this year to stem that tide.  Now it might be another 2-3 years before we can even put casual butts in the seats.  I actually think, as good as this article is, that Nick might have understated how bad this could be for the team.

 

I agree that the Pohlads may re-trench and I also believe it may be worse than the Twins think.  Scaling back would be yet another slap to the fan base and tax payer, IMO

 

I talked to my friend who is cancelling.  He said he has three couples next to him and all four sets have been full season ticket holders since 2010.  2 sets are cancelling and another is scaling back to a half of 20 game pack. 

 

He also brought up another negative dynamic.  A drastic reduction in season ticket holders will mean fewer tickets being dumped on stub hub for less than face value.  So the casual fan, who is also discouraged will have to pay more to see the team play.  That is not a good thing.  Going to get real ugly.

Edited September 24, 2014 by tobi0040

[DaveW]

I haven't watched an inning of twins baseball this month. I suggest you all try it, it's good for the soul and mind.

[JS]

I'll just chime in that I'm also not buying my share of a 40-game package next year, and I believe the guy who runs it isn't going to renew.  After seeing 3 wins of 19 games the past 2 years, going to games this year often felt like a chore.  I also no longer watch every game on TV.  Most games just feel like a re-run.  Nick's article is spot-on, and I have a hard time seeing this being properly addressed.

[Brandon]

I have a contrarian view on this.  The Twins offense has been remade and revamped and Buxton and Sano are still on the way.  So its only going to get better. The starting rotation is 2 starters deep with a #1 Hughes and a 3/4 starter in Gibson.  I suspect the Twins will trade for another pitcher.  We have Nolasco as a bounce back candidate who I suspect will have a similar season to Gibson this year and be a .500 pitcher.   And we have 3 others with some potential for the 5th spot May, Meyer, and Millone.  The bullpen will be average if not above average but not spectacular.  That should get us back over .500.  Plus I think Detroit is nearing the end of their run with age and FA status affecting their future with a depleted farm system.  I think If we are over .500 at the break next year the team will sell tickets.  Probably not as many as they would like but I bet they hit close to 2 million.  And I bet we are competitive into September. 

[DaveW]

Also buying MLB season tickets is a pretty awful investment overall, the face value on tix are always way too inflated. In the 30 games or so I have been to in the past couple years: target Field, AT&T stadium, Yankee stadium, Citi Field, turner Field, Fenway, Wrigley, Camden Yards, nationals stadium etc I haven't had to pay face value or higher even once. Most of the time I was able to get tickets off stub hub for over 50% off face. The only real benefit I could see to season tickets is first crack at playoff tickets, however with your savings through the year you can easily get into a playoff game which usually don't get very expensive til the ALCs and World Series.

[DaveW]

Lastly, I don't see how the team would be miraculously better if gardy wasn't around, even if you think he is bad, a top flight manager or whatever would only add an additional 2-3 wins tops.

[Badsmerf]

I don't see how ownership can't see this happening. If it hasn't been apparent yet, by the opening day next year it will. They are not just losing attendance, they are losing fans. I've never felt more discouraged about this team since I started watching them. Nick, you point toward the talent coming up. How long until that talent is turned into wins? 2... 3... 4? When you lose 90+ games 4 years in a row, its pretty tough to envision being even .500.

[tobi0040]

I have a contrarian view on this.  The Twins offense has been remade and revamped and Buxton and Sano are still on the way.  So its only going to get better. The starting rotation is 2 starters deep with a #1 Hughes and a 3/4 starter in Gibson.  I suspect the Twins will trade for another pitcher.  We have Nolasco as a bounce back candidate who I suspect will have a similar season to Gibson this year and be a .500 pitcher.   And we have 3 others with some potential for the 5th spot May, Meyer, and Millone.  The bullpen will be average if not above average but not spectacular.  That should get us back over .500.  Plus I think Detroit is nearing the end of their run with age and FA status affecting their future with a depleted farm system.  I think If we are over .500 at the break next year the team will sell tickets.  Probably not as many as they would like but I bet they hit close to 2 million.  And I bet we are competitive into September. 

 

I think the stars and moon need to align for this team to be competitive into September next year.  I really don't see us trading for a top pitcher and it would cost Sano or Buxton to get one via trade, so I just don't see that either.

If I am right, we are basically then bringing back the same players and asking 2-3 rookies to improve the team by 15 games or so.