Article: The Real Brian Dozier?

[Nick Nelson]

It's a statistic that you've probably heard recently: Prior to the All-Star break, Twins second baseman Brian Dozier piled up 18 home runs, leading to an appearance in the Derby at Target Field. Since then, he has hit a total of two.

 

For some, this is a worrisome development, indicative that perhaps Dozier is not the long-term cog that many of us hoped he could be. For me, however, the 27-year-old's post-break production is actually rather encouraging. Allow me to explain.First, let's get this out there: It was never terribly realistic to believe that Dozier was going to keep hitting the ball out of the park at the frantic rate he established during the first three-plus months. In 2013, he launched 18 homers, surpassing his career total in the minors, and this year he matched that number in just over half a season.

 

Clearly he has made some strides and developed considerably as a power hitter, but based on his history and his swing, the odds that he was going to be an annual source for 30-40 home runs were slim to nil. Some regression in the HR category was inevitable.

 

Granted, the regression has been more drastic than we would have expected or hoped. But for the most part, the rest of Dozier's strong offensive game has remained intact. Here's a more broad view of his splits:

 

Before All-Star break: 424 PA, .242/.340/.436, 16 2B, 0 3B, 18 HR, 79/52 K/BB

Since All-Star break: 234 PA, .227/.348/.340, 16 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 39/33 K/BB

 

Although Dozier has clearly been scuffling from a pure power standpoint, he is still getting on base, still showing excellent plate discipline and still hitting a bunch of doubles. Let's face it, as nice as the long balls were, these are the most important aspects of his game when you consider his role as a top-of-the-lineup table setter.

 

If a "slumping" Dozier can continue to exhibit those positive traits, it bodes awfully well for what we can expect going forward, especially once the home run proclivity returns in some form. He might not get back to ripping four homers per month on a consistent basis, but he did place 34 balls in the seats from April of 2013 through July of 2014. It's pretty tough to view that as a total fluke.

 

Dozier, at the worst we've seen him in a long time, still ain't bad by any means, especially when you account for his exceptional defensive skills. Consider that his relatively unimpressive .688 OPS since the All-Star break is just five points lower than what the average AL second baseman has produced this year.

 

Is the guy we've seen since mid-July the "real Brian Dozier"? Probably not. More likely he has just cooled off a bit, and been adjusted to, after a really long and really impressive power-hitting hot streak. The true version probably lies somewhere in the middle, and still figures to be a hell of a player and building block.

 

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[Trautmann13]

I really hope that, like you said, The real Dozier is some combination of pre/post all star break. I love watching him play and I hope to see a successful Dozier for many years.

[Physics Guy]

I'm happy with 15 HR, .750 OPS and above average defense.  He might be a bit more, but maybe also a bit less.  Either way he's a solid 2B.

[Seth Stohs]

Definitely a guy worth getting through the arbitration years with... I'm encouraged by the increased walk rate, though I'd definitely like to see that strikeout rate decrease. I think that will help with the batting average... and the on-base percentage. Like above, I'm not worried about the home runs. I am encouraged by the doubles... And the defense has been terrific. Increased errors (I believe) but overall, I think better.

[beckmt]

 

Still am of the opinion that Brian Dozier is Brandon Phillips type player.  That is someone who will be way overpaid for too many years.  My bet would be to maximize his trade value and get a good return for him, while the Twins have an excess of middle infielders on the way up in the system.  I know it is a risk, but you cannot get quality without giving quality.  Let some other team pay Brian more than he will be worth.

[Linus]

I'm curious beckmt, would you deal Dozier now or when?

[beckmt]

I would have seen what I could get at the trade deadline this year.  I would not deal Dozier just to deal him, but if I got an offer that was decent.  Would be looking at major league starting pitching either ready or just about ready.  Twins have Polanco, Micheal, Gordon and a few others in the pipeline and have Escobar and Santana up here to work with, so would not worry that much about a replacement.  Atlanta and San Francisco among others were looking for a second baseman.  It would have been possible to get a good return for him.  Also Tampa Bay might have been a destination.  If you wind up with too much starting pitching you can deal from that when the Twins are ready to contend(2016-2017).  Oakland and Tampa Bay have been two clubs that have done well be selling high.  We need to consider some of that model, though the Twins are not that small market of a team

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm more concerned about the average personally. He needs to bring that up. His minor league career says he can, so I'm hoping that next season he can get it into the .250-.260 range while continuing to get on base and hit for some power...

 

That said, I think the Twins should extend him through his arb years and buy out some FA.

[Platoon]

I like BD, especially his hair. If for no other fact that when my son in law put his Cardboard cutout in the basement, and his wife went around the corner down there and ran into Brian, he scared the bejeezus out of here. (Reason enough to keep him)

That said the HR will likely remain in direct relationship to the amount of high inside fastballs he sees, which will likely be few and far in between. Can he be replaced by an in house candidate in the near future? Likely. He does not have to be. But if you don't, you will need to be prepared for the last half of,this seasons version.

[hybridbear]

I agree with the idea of selling high on Dozier and trading him. I also think that if he can get his average up to .250-.260 range and thus increase his OBP by another 20 points then he'll bring a big return for the Twins. Particularly if they've signed him to a team-friendly contract.

[brvama]

Agree with your analysis Nick.  Dozier at worst appears to be an average 2B, likely a tick above.  That gives that Twins a solid position on a team that is trying to improve.  He is moving into his prime and the next few years one would expect some improvement, however slight.  

 

Now, I just don't get why some have this urge to trade him, or others, at their so-called peak.  How do we know if this is the best?  At worst, you have a decent bench bat and extra infielder.  And doesn't he gives us a quantifiable product vs. the unknown production of the younger?  When the Twins have other areas to improve it doesn't make sense to degrade one position to improve another; especially, when you replace that with unknown production.  Maybe we should be packaging the younger guys for a trade instead.  I think we should focus on changing our weakness before we begin to try to improve our solid positions.

[Devereaux]

Nick, thanks. I thought this was going to be another "disappointing second half" article. Pleasantly surprised. 

 

The only point I want to add is that it's suspicious to to talk about any arbitrary period of PA's (e.g. Mauer before - or after - going to the IR; Dozier after the All-Star). I would prefer, if we are going to judge a person's productivity on an arbitrary period, to stick to seasons.

 

And, as you nicely put it, Dozier has put together a fine season.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Seeing the splits, it is encouraging that he's cut down a bit on the strikeouts - putting more balls in play is always a good thing, assuming he's swinging at strikes.

[bird]

We do NOT have a surplus of above-average middle infielders. Yet. None of the players mentioned- Santana, Escobar, Polanco, Michael, Gordon, and throw in Rosario too- are capable of matching Dozier's overall production at 2B right now. We're at the stage of the rebuild where no trades should be made which create rather than immediately fill a hole.

[HitInAPinch]

I'm more concerned about the average personally. He needs to bring that up. His minor league career says he can, so I'm hoping that next season he can get it into the .250-.260 range while continuing to get on base and hit for some power...

 

That said, I think the Twins should extend him through his arb years and buy out some FA.

 

A sub .240 average is a big concern for me.  If other teams are big on the power aspect of Dozier, trade him.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

There was this article in July about his midsummer swoon - http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/what-happened-to-brian-dozier/

 

he's really improved his plate discipline relative to that bad month of July, and it seems like he's adjusting to the league's new approach to pitching him.

 

I think the average isn't going to move too much one way or the other, but he remains very valuable to the lineup with his combo of power/speed/patience at the plate.

[adjacent]

One thing I noticed lately is that he is getting a lot of pop outs, in the type of pitches that he used to drive in the first half (high fastballs). I don't know enough to say what might be causing it.

[drunksam]

You forgot that his hair has remained fabulous throughout the season. It these details that matter.

[Nick Nelson]

I'm more concerned about the average personally. He needs to bring that up. His minor league career says he can, so I'm hoping that next season he can get it into the .250-.260 range while continuing to get on base and hit for some power...

 

That said, I think the Twins should extend him through his arb years and buy out some FA.

I'm curious: As long as he's walking a ton and getting base at a .350ish rate, why be concerned about his batting average? I'm not one of those "BA is meaningless" people, but as a No. 1 or 2 hitter Dozier's job is to get on base and get in scoring position. He has done that very effectively this year, allowing him to lead the league in runs scored for most of the season despite the .230 average.

[twinstalker]

He's a good player, and he's got a good reputation league-wide.  While the Twins don't yet have a replacement, they will very, very soon in Polanco.  Polanco is going to hit and field well at 2B.  His bat is quick, and he's shown the ability to adjust to higher levels.  He should be very similar to Santana, though I think his bat will be better.  I think Polanco is the safest bet in the organization, after Buxton.

 

Given all that, yes, you need to deal Dozier next season.  You're not losing Dozier, you're gaining whatever you get back, because we'll have his replacement in the wings.  The Twins, though, besides having very little clue on optimizing talent, absolutely love Dozier, from what I can tell.  I think they think he is the model ballplayer.  They're not necessarily wrong there, but the importance they place on that is probably far too high.

[brvama]

from Twinstalker: "...Polanco is going to hit and field well at 2B.  ..." 

 

While I have a lot of high expectations about Polanco, I am not ready to announce that he is our next second baseman.  To guarantee that at this time is a bit premature.  If he was in the top ten of minor league prospects I might assume so but still would not say he "is."  There are always concerns until prospects get to the ML and perform.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm glad to see a fully fleshed out article on this, good work Nick.  There are a couple things that still stick out to me:

 

1)  This "what is he?" question is a bit concerning.  We have a season and a half now of Dozier being a better player than we could have hoped for, but we still don't know exactly what that identity is.  We know, regardless of his other statistics, that he'll be able to get on base.  But is he a high K guy?  A high power guy?  A doubles or a homerun guy?

 

I get a little concerned by that lack of identity.

 

2)  I'm still wary of the post all-star game production because it was really driven by a flukey BABIP.  It could be the true Dozier give or take, but I need to see that type of production with a more normalized BABIP before I fully buy into it.  

 

I think Dozier is a huge part of the future and I love that we have him around, but I also think he's a bit of a mystery going into 2015.  Not a mystery in terms of will he be helpful, but more in terms of what manner of help he'll provide.

[Willihammer]

He's not hitting as many fly balls as he did in the first half. This probably accounts for both the reduction in homers and the rise in BABIP. I don't know if its by design (coaching) or if its a result of being pitched differently. Possibly both. Personally I would like to see him return to the low average, patient, 40%+ fly ball batter he was in the first half. Hopefully he can make the adjustments to get back there.

Edited September 17, 2014 by Willihammer

[Parker Hageman]

He's not hitting as many fly balls as he did in the first half.

 

 

1st half: 40.8% overall fly ball%

2nd half: 40.4% overall fly ball%

*From ESPN/TruMedia

 

In hitters' counts -- where he hit 7 first-half home runs -- he is seeing slightly fewer fastballs and hitting fewer fly balls (from 53% to 44%) from the first-half to the second. 

[scottz]

I'm curious: As long as he's walking a ton and getting base at a .350ish rate, why be concerned about his batting average? I'm not one of those "BA is meaningless" people, but as a No. 1 or 2 hitter Dozier's job is to get on base and get in scoring position. He has done that very effectively this year, allowing him to lead the league in runs scored for most of the season despite the .230 average.

 

I don't think it is illogical to be concerned that Dozier is hitting .230 and to want him to hit .250 instead. Yes, the OBP is just fine at .350-ish, but an increased BA would increase the OBP assuming the rest of positives of his game (e.g., the walks) stayed the same.

 

In any case, and responding to the wider thread, I don't think Dozier is going anywhere any time soon. In addition to being productive compared to his positional-peers at the plate and with the glove, he also shows the intangible leadership quality that the Twins appear to like (as do I).

[Siehbiscuit]

Polanco may be an unknown, but IF the Twins could get a High A to AA pitcher (think Alex Meyer trade) the Twins do have Escobar and Santana to play 2B and SS. Getting talent is ALWAYS important and if the Twins want to pursue pitching via this method, then I am on board. I value pitching in both quantity and quality above all else. If they went this way I would be okay. The potential for a frontline starter is worth, IMO, the dropoff of a Dozier to Escobar/Santana dropoff.

 

Dozier is going to need to prove his ability to hit off-speed stuff consistently before HR's show up again. See the fangraphs article referenced above. Dozier feasted on fastballs over the last 18 months and pitchers have adjusted. Its his turn now. If he can, he has the potential to be a top5-8 2B in all of baseball.

 

Dozier is essential as a building block, either as a player or as a very tradeable asset.

[TheDean]

The thing I like about Dozier is that he seems to be improving his game, season-by-season in a sustainable manner.  Yes, he had a power-binge early in the year, but as a table setter, he has improved his OBP in each season at the ML-level .271, .312, .342.  Plus the move to 2B helped his defense immensely.

 

I also like Dozier because this progression provides a nice lens for viewing the development of other players, for example: Hicks OBP .259 last year, .337 this year.  Both are 1/2 or 8/9-type players, and OBP is a fine way to evaluate their contributions.

 

It took Dozier till his age-27 season to get his OPS+ above 100, and I think that's a good reminder for anyone proposing to trade him in favor of younger prospects who may also take till their third MLB season.

[Possumlad]

Dozier is a significantly better than average MLB 2nd baseman. Baseball is a game of streaks - any small sample size you choose (1/2 a season, for instance) will undoubtedly be better or worse than any other you choose, but the body of work is terrific this year.

 

For qualified 2B this year, he's 7th in OPS & 5th in WAR. While any stat's imperfect, you don't trade away one of the few above-average major leaguers on the team--while he's young--in hopes that we someday find another one.

[bird]

I'm curious: As long as he's walking a ton and getting base at a .350ish rate, why be concerned about his batting average? I'm not one of those "BA is meaningless" people, but as a No. 1 or 2 hitter Dozier's job is to get on base and get in scoring position. He has done that very effectively this year, allowing him to lead the league in runs scored for most of the season despite the .230 average.

Ideally, it would be nice to move the lead runner(s) along more than one base at a time just a little more often, I guess.

[bird]

He's a good player, and he's got a good reputation league-wide.  While the Twins don't yet have a replacement, they will very, very soon in Polanco.  Polanco is going to hit and field well at 2B.  His bat is quick, and he's shown the ability to adjust to higher levels.  He should be very similar to Santana, though I think his bat will be better.  I think Polanco is the safest bet in the organization, after Buxton.

 

Given all that, yes, you need to deal Dozier next season.  You're not losing Dozier, you're gaining whatever you get back, because we'll have his replacement in the wings.  The Twins, though, besides having very little clue on optimizing talent, absolutely love Dozier, from what I can tell.  I think they think he is the model ballplayer.  They're not necessarily wrong there, but the importance they place on that is probably far too high.

And you're not necessarily wrong about Polanco. I hope you're right, and think you might be. But it won't be true during the first half of 2015, so what's the harm in letting the two of them get in each other's way for a half-season in 2015 and trading Dozier during the winter of 2015-16?