Article: "We've Got to, Otherwise We're Dead"

[Steven Buhr]

The Minnesota Twins' front office is going to be faced with making some difficult decisions this offseason-- decisions they are woefully ill-prepared to make.

 

Many professional sports organizations change their on-field management at least as often as they change accounting firms. It's just part of the way they do business. When you lose more games than you win for a couple years in a row, you change managers/head coaches and even front office leadership. It just becomes second nature. Much the way swimming becomes second nature to anyone who has spent much time in the water.But the very idea of changing field management/coaching staff must, for the Twins ownership and front office, seem as incomprehensible as diving off a cliff into a river would be to someone who doesn't know how to swim. For those of you who don't know how that scene of Butch Cassidy & the Sundance Kid turned out, both outlaws survived their jump and their trip down river just fine and lived happily ever after, at least until they decided to move to Bolivia.

 

The most famous quote from that movie scene is, "The fall will probably kill you." But, for the Twins' purposes, I'd focus on Butch's earlier point. "We've got to, otherwise we're dead." I think the same is true of the Twins if they foolishly decide to keep the status quo regarding their field management.

 

I know that changing managers and coaching staff just is not something the people who run the Twins are comfortable with.They know the guys they have. They may not be winning much, but they HAVE won in the past, so they MIGHT win again, no matter how hopelessly unlikely that may seem to be at the moment.

 

If the people who run the Twins decide to (shudder) make changes, there is no guarantee that the new guys will be any better. After all, how many people in the Twins front office have actually gone swimming in the deep waters that go along with the process of interviewing candidates for a major league manager?

 

Figuratively, they don't know how to swim!

 

At some point, though, they're going to have to realize that NOT taking that leap means the organization is almost certain to continue their current death spiral. Once you consider that the worst thing that can happen when you take that big jump off a cliff is the same thing that's going to happen if you don't, it's really not that hard to just holler, "Ohhhhh (expletive)," and make the leap.

 

Once you've taken the leap and decided you will not simply go on doing business the same way you have for the past three decades, you can get down to the business of figuring out who is best suited to turn the next group of raw-but-talented young ballplayers into a contending major league team.

 

Maybe it's someone on the Twins' current big league bench, such as Paul Molitor or Tom Brunansky. Maybe it's one of the organization's excellent full-season minor league managers--all four having guided their respective team to a winning record in 2014, by the way. Maybe it's someone from outside the Twins organization altogether.

 

But first things first.

 

If they haven't already, the Twins' decision-makers need to conclude that there is literally nothing that can happen that would be any worse than continuing to fight it out with the status quo.

 

To do so would send a terrible message to a fan base which simply will not tolerate another do-nothing offseason and continue to buy tickets for a 2015 season that does not come with the benefit of All-Star Game tickets.

There is a lot of talent set to arrive at Target Field in the next couple years. The names, both familiar and unfamiliar to Twins fans, include Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Berrios, Polanco, Gordon, Burdi, Kepler, Harrison, Kanzler, Stewart, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Turner, Garver, Walker and many more, could well become cornerstones of the next great Minnesota Twins team.

 

The class of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Baker, et al, has been wasted. We could discuss "why" this class failed to bring a championship to Minnesota, but that's pointless. What matters now is making sure that the upcoming class is not similarly wasted and that process begins with asking ourselves who would be the best choices as manager and field coaches to get the most of their talent.

 

I'm not sure who that person is, though I certainly have some favorites among the likely possibilities.What I think has become abundantly clear, however, is that manager Ron Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson are not the right choices.

 

The decision to dismiss them is not easy for a front office like that of the Twins. I respect that, actually. Letting go of loyal and, at times, effective employees should not be easy - certainly not as easy as it seems to be for many owners and general managers in professional sports. But sometimes it's absolutely necessary.

 

Even the most devoted fans of Gardy and Andy in the front office must, by now, be having a hard time envisioning that duo effectively leading the upcoming group of 20-year-olds to championships.

 

With fresh talent, fresh eyes and fresh approaches are necessary. It's possible (and perhaps even quite likely) that Gardenhire and Anderson could provide that fresh approach to another organization. I hope they can, as long as it's not in the AL Central, because I think they're good men who know something about baseball.

 

But just as a young Tom Kelly was the perfect fit for a young group of Twins in the mid-to-late 1980s, it's time to find new management to work with the next wave of young Twins.There's no reason to wait another year, prolonging the inevitable.It's time for the Twins' front office and ownership to take the leap off that cliff and live to fight another day.

 

Just don't move the team to Bolivia. That would not end well.

 

Click here to view the article

[stringer bell]

Really good article.  It's time for new blood in the manager's office and with his staff.  I believe Gardy is a decent manager and his staff is okay.  After over a decade, the message gets stale. 

[TheLeviathan]

I really don't know how the team could stand pat again with this same group of leadership.  It's a terrible message to send to your fanbase, even if you think it's just a token move and Gardy has no blame, you almost have to do it just from a public relations standpoint.

[Hammer of Killebrew]

 

The class of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Baker, et al, has been wasted. We could discuss "why" this class failed to bring a championship to Minnesota, but that's pointless.

 

Great article.  I think this might be something we should look at though.  It seems like the same people in charge of putting the new prospects together are still in place.  Why should we have any faith in the current status quo when they basically wasted all the talent the last 10-15 years? If I recall, we had need a lot of luck in September to make the playoffs.  Its not like we were hitting 95+ wins every year.  Have the Twins made any changes proving there is something different this time?  

 

I expect the current crew to guide them through 2015, the last year of Gardy's contract.  After that, they will promote someone from within who has (almost) always been with the organization, maybe the same with the GM.  I just hope we are not having the same conversation 10 years from now with Ryan's assistant the GM, Gardenhire's understudy in place, and a string of mediocre seasons with early playoff loses.         

[ScrapTheNickname]

Fine article, but I take exception to: "The class of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Baker, et al, has been wasted ... this class failed to bring a championship to Minnesota."

 

Wasted and failed? I don't think so.

 

The Twins won six championships in nine years.

 

However, with the multi-layered playoff system now in place, a "World Series championship" is more than ever a crapshoot.

 

The Atlanta Braves have it worse, in that they won only one World Series in 22 years of being a dominant team. Since 1991, they played in 26 post-season series, won 15 of them (a winning percentage of .577), yet they won only one World Series. Were those years wasted? Did they fail? I don't think so. I think it reflects the "any can win if they get to the post season" nature of the MLB these days.

 

With that said, the Twins post season futility has been disgusting. I'm aware of that.

[Kwak]

I want to hear the story told after the season is over explaining that free agent contracts for over $30MM, just for the 2014 season, were let and the end result isn't much different.  Last year, Ryan "fell on the spear" stating he hadn't provided enough quality in the players for Gardy to win.  So, did Ryan "fail" to improve the team, or did Gardenhire misuse what he was provided for 2014?

Edited September 15, 2014 by Kwak

[old nurse]

Do fans really come out or do not come out depending on who the manager is? The novelty of a new manager will wear off quickly with each game under .500, and much quicker for every game with a win percentage under .450. Other than the NFL, the Twin Cities supports winners and stays away when the team loses. Did attendance change when Goryl then Gardner took over? no.

The do no nothing claim is accurate only as to how it reflects on the makeup of the roster. They need to sign or trade for a charismatic player to lead the team if one is not readily appearant from the group of up and coming players. They probably need to sign a top of rotation pitcher. That will get fans exited. A team ERA close to league average would lead to the fans being exited. A team staff ERA still at 5.50 or more and a new manager won't do much for the fan where it matters to Twin's officials. That is paying fans in seats in the restraunts and bars in Target Field. If the Royals are a barometer, it is going to take division titles to get back fans in droves.

 

If the view that  seasons of players are wasted because there wasn't a world series championship is the prevalent one then the team is close to dead. History is littered with good groups of players on a team that do not make it to win a  the World Series.

 

As much as some poeple chant for leadership change with the Twins, I don't think it will happen on the manager level unless Ryan thinks there is someone who can do the job better. Pohlad is not going to fire Ryan and company unless he figures there is someone out there that can do the job better. Changing the GM does not change the trajectory of the franchise quickly except for Dan Duquette. The teams that have risen up in the standings have had the same GM through a lean time

[old nurse]

I want to hear the story told after the season is over explaining that free agent contracts for over $30MM, just for the 2014 season, were let and the end result isn't much different.  Last year, Ryan "fell on the spear" stating he hadn't provided enough quality in the players for Gardy to win.  So, did Ryan "fail" to improve the team, or did Gardenhire misuse what he was provided for 2014?

Reality is there was only one pitcher signed, Hughes, that contributed.  At some point in time the fans will know what happened to Nolasco's elbow. If you can't prevent runs you need to have a record breaking offense to win.

When older players also do not contribute as much as they once did, a franchise can slide back.

[nicksaviking]

Fine article, but I take exception to: "The class of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Baker, et al, has been wasted ... this class failed to bring a championship to Minnesota."

 

Wasted and failed? I don't think so.

 

The Twins won six championships in nine years.

 

However, with the multi-layered playoff system now in place, a "World Series championship" is more than ever a crapshoot.

 

It would have been less of a crapshoot had the team regularly filled the holes in the rotation and the lineup at the deadline like most of the other contenders were doing.

[Dantes929]

It would have been less of a crapshoot had the team regularly filled the holes in the rotation and the lineup at the deadline like most of the other contenders were doing.

It would have been less of a crapshoot if our all star closer pitched like an all star closer.

[Badsmerf]

Hey scrap. I don't know how to quote on my phone... anyway, those braves teams you mentioned were a failure. They had the best team in the mlb a bunch of those years and underwhelmed in the playoffs. That is a failure.

 

championships? You call division titles in a terrible division championships? You can't reference not winning the world series not a failure yet consider them a "championship" caliber team.

 

You also act like a world series title is done mystical random act of science. It's not. Teams just have to be constructed correctly (gm) and play together (manager). Neither of which happened during the twins run of mediocrity. Why will that suddenly change?

 

It boggles my mind why fans in mn have so much loyalty to this fo with how terrible this team has been. Is there really any way new people could do worse? I'm not really sure it could get too much worse.

[Dantes929]

"Many professional sports organizations change their on-field management at least as often as they change accounting firms. It's just part of the way they do business. When you lose more games than you win for a couple years in a row, you change managers/head coaches and even front office leadership. It just becomes second nature" And yet there are just as many games lost as won each year. There are plusses to stability and staying the course and there are plusses to change. I also am looking for change but acknowledge the possibility that the staff and talent in place (meaning current Twins and prospect talent) could win a championship in the next 5 or 6 years that the staff that takes their place would not. And vice versa of course.

[Dantes929]

"If they haven't already, the Twins' decision-makers need to conclude that there is literally nothing that can happen that would be any worse than continuing to fight it out with the status quo"

You mean like making Billy Smith a General Manager? Again, I am for change but Murphy's Law would tell you it can always be worse.

[Steven Buhr]

Couple of things:

 

First, thanks for all the comments.

 

Second, for whatever reason, the youtube video URL didn't survive the transition from blog post to article, so here's the link to that:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IbStIb9XXw

 

 

Finally, I'm hoping the discussion doesn't focus solely on the debate over whether the Twins teams of he 2000s were or were not successful. I have some terrific memories of those teams and those players and I believe they gave everything they had in themselves to achieve what they did. They have every reason to be proud of their Division Championships. But, yes, I do feel their talent was wasted because a couple of moves here or there could have made them special - could have at least got them TO a World Series.

 

Only the final season of that run was at Target Field. The rest were during the supposed financially limited Metrodome era. Right or wrong, I tend to give the FO a little pass for those years, under the assumption they were not given the financial flexibility to add the necessary pieces.

 

That is no longer the case and, as I focus on the future, rather than the past, there can be no excuse regarding lack of available finances.

 

In response to one question raised, yes, I do feel THIS year's failure was more on the manager/coaches than last year was. FA talent was added (imagine the record if Hughes had NOT been signed). Could things have worked out better with Nolasco? Sure. But I believe the manager got the 25 man roster out of spring training that he wanted and I don't think he can blame the GM for not doing a better job of fixing the roster mistakes on the fly during the season.

 

Bottom line is that I still trust Terry Ryan to identify baseball talent, but I do not trust Gardenhire and Anderson to appropriately utilize that talent once it comes on board.

Edited September 15, 2014 by Steven BUHR

[Oldgoat_MN]

I appreciate the article, Jim Crikket.

 

I cannot see how the Twins can 'stay the course'. Last time they changed things up a bit in the coaching staff they clearly simply took out scapegoats. Anderson and Vavra (and Ullger) remain.

 

I like that Bruno seems to be having some success, but it is probably too soon to say for sure. He certainly has earned the right to keep his job.

 

Don't see any such evidence from our starting rotation. Hughes is such an aberration to the norm that he really stands out as a pitcher who has gotten better, seemingly in spite of working with Anderson.

 

I really believe that the Pohlads want to win. I also believe that they need to make some uncomfortable changes to make that happen.

Edited September 15, 2014 by Oldgoat_MN

[Steven Buhr]

"If they haven't already, the Twins' decision-makers need to conclude that there is literally nothing that can happen that would be any worse than continuing to fight it out with the status quo"

You mean like making Billy Smith a General Manager? Again, I am for change but Murphy's Law would tell you it can always be worse.

 

If a change along the lines of Bill Smith becoming GM again occurred, the Twins would end up at the bottom of the standings again. Not sure that's any worse than things right now. May very well be that different things would be screwed up than are being screwed up at the moment, but the results can't get much worse than 4 straight seasons of "winning" top draft picks.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Maybe we retain Gardy and stumble into another 90-win season one of these years, but unfortunately Gardy (whatever his strengths) is an old dog as predictable as the day is long and a sharp opponent should have no trouble lining up a postseason series against us anymore. see also New York Yankees, 2009-2010.

[boomerb5]

Wasted and failed? I don't think so.

 

The Twins won six championships in nine years.

 

 

I know I'm not the only one that believes that there is only one "championship" each year, and the Twins last won one in 1991. Division titles really don't mean that much anymore (1/5 of all MLB teams win one every year). They've only had one post-season series win since 1991....that is NOT how success is defined.

[TheLeviathan]

If a change along the lines of Bill Smith becoming GM again occurred, the Twins would end up at the bottom of the standings again. Not sure that's any worse than things right now. May very well be that different things would be screwed up than are being screwed up at the moment, but the results can't get much worse than 4 straight seasons of "winning" top draft picks.

 

That's such a good point.  What's the worst thing that can happen if they fire Gardy and realize later the replacement is worse?  We lose 94 games?  93?

 

The change in leadership needs to be about breathing new life into the organization - it's gotten far too stale for far too long.

[Steven Buhr]

I know I'm not the only one that believes that there is only one "championship" each year, and the Twins last won one in 1991. Division titles really don't mean that much anymore (1/5 of all MLB teams win one every year). They've only had one post-season series win since 1991....that is NOT how success is defined.

 

I'm probably easier to satisfy than some. I consider the 1965 Twins to have had a championship season. They beat 9 other AL teams over 162 games to claim the AL pennant.

 

If the 2000s Twins had made it TO the World Series once or twice, having won division AND a couple of postseason series to get to the WS, I'd probably be more inclined to call that a successful run, even without the WS championship. But that's just me.

[twinsfan34]

Change for the sake of change isn't good. I mean, we went from Tom Kelly to Ron Gardenhire. Was that a good change?

 

Is Gardenhire the same manager who won AL Manager of the year in 2010 and was 2nd 5 other times...well just a product of the players or was he the reason they did well?

 

I do acknowledge people can get 'depressed' and attitudes can change, we all change as we age - maybe that 'change' in Gardenhire, if the case, is not as conducive to success in managing?

 

I don't think any manager combo of Earl Weaver, Sparky Anderson, Billy Martin, Tony LaRussa, etc etc would have got this team even above .500.

 

As far as the GM, I think Terry Ryan dodged a TON of bullets this Fall in Free Agency.

 

What if we had signed Stephen Drew, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Jarrod Saltamacchia in addition to our fine haul of Rickey Nolasco?

 

I'd actually say that Suzuki and Hughes might be 2 of the top 5 signings in this past FA class. Take $M to WAR ratio. 

[Linus]

As I've posted in several other threads, the ability level of the roster is the determining factor in wins and losses, with everything else being periphery.  I get as frustrated with Gardy as anybody (his mantra of "I want to play Santana at short" but never doing it is the latest thing to drive me nuts) but I don't believe the Twins will suddenly make a quantum leap forward from switching managers.

 

I will say he deserves heat for his idiotic roster construction at the beginning of the year.  My greatest concern about keeping him is his absolute faith in veterans at the expense of younger players who may be our future.  That alone might make him the wrong person to manage us during this transition to younger players.

 

Making changes to appeal to the fanbase is a poor way to run a franchise and should have no bearing on important decisions.  Make decisions that give you the best chance to win and all the rest will take care of itself.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't think any manager combo of Earl Weaver, Sparky Anderson, Billy Martin, Tony LaRussa, etc etc would have got this team even above .500.

 

 

Maybe not, but considering they only had four 90 loss seasons combined tells me either they were better at raising a sinking ship or would not have gotten the same leash that Gardenhire has gotten.

[Senator-Twins]

I like reading your articles and comments and am equally frustrated by what is happening with the Twins. However, I disagree with several of the comments that have been made. First I think winning Division Championships, even in a weak Division, is still a successful year. No they did not go far in the play offs and I think the main reason is they were blown out by teams who had lots of money to spend, and could afford multiple failures on players they bought in order to get top talent. The Twins are not and will not be the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers etc. The failure during those years was that the Twins were not willing to go outside the organization and "buy" one or top players. They were also unwilling to spend deeply to hold their own top talent (with exceptions). But winning the Division did bring people to the park. As regards changes in management, the last time the Twins did this (Ryan to Smith) it resulted in most of the failure we see today. We traded for Young, got Gomez and flipped him for Hardy and then dumped Hardy for AAA pitchers and then let Ramos go for a set-up man. It has taken Ryan more time then I would like to get this team back to where they can compete, but I think with the new wave we will see improvements. As regards coaches I have my doubts about Anderson being the right guy as we try to promote strike out pitchers. But lets be frank he has not had much talent to work with for a while. The major change .I think the Twins need to make is to get a respected Latin American Coach who can work with the young Spanish speaking players. They also need to continue to invest in scouting and signing in the DR & Venezuela at take some shots at the Cuban players coming on the market.

[h2oface]

It has been time for the big change since 2007.  It is already 7 years late.  Yes..... change the management immediately if not sooner.

[NotTorii]

As has been said here MANY times - One can no longer point the fickle finger at stingy ownership . . . nope - it's has been a series of extremely poor baseball decisions that has the Twins in the predicament that they are in.  So the obvious answer is to make some changes in the decision-makers. 

[oldguy10]

As I have said before should not a lot of the blame for the Twins poor record over the past four years be put squarely on ownership's shoulders especially when they PROMISED to spend more money on the franchise and then failing to deliver on that promise?  

[Rosterman]

I had high hopes for the rotation going into 2014. Detroit might've been better, but they ahd an aging offense and no bullpen. Nolasco, Correia, Hughes, Pelfrey and Gibson looked darn good. Especially compared to what Cleveland, KC and ChiSox were putting on the mound. The bullpen was strong. The overall lineup looked better than it turned out to be (Willingham and Hicks, tanked. Mauer, disappointed. We still needed a DH and thought we had scored big with Morales). The pieces were there. A combination of injuries and players being bad made this a long season.

 

Right now, the Twins could comfortably field the current team they have in play. Maybe with proper lineup construction, some sound pitching coach work, the Twins will thrive enough to play .500 or maybe be competitive. Then we get repalcements in the outfield, third base, maybe 2B/ss, a catcher and DH that improves, Arcia finds his notch in the bat, some young hurlers push aside the Milones and Gibsons.

 

No, you don't make change because change is good. You make change to try something different, right some wrongs. Something isn't working. The Twins Way is a nice thought, but we still need to go that extra...playoff. A new crop of players are on the horizon.

 

Do we stay with the current guard for a decade, which is not out of the question, or do we go with a new guard who we will be hoping stay another decade in a decade and a system in place that will take a team with 6 championships in nine seasons to a team that WILL NOT have four dirty rotten stinkin' seasons.

 

You do ave to placate fans with some moves. You can't pay players if you don't put butts in the seats, sell concessions, and have advertising revenue from media ratings, period.

 

The talent is there for new on-field management. The question is front office management, do you go outside the organization and then have to deal with someone wanting to bring other outsiders in, or do you continue to promote from within (which I don't see...forgive me Rob Anthony...you are not the next general manager of the Twins).

 

But someone has to put all this in play and fast...and think heavily longterm. There is no All-Star Game to sell (not that it mattered). I can care less abut the beauty of outdoor baseball...I'll but tickets for the Saints at a fraction of the price (wait, not true, I can buy Twins tickets for any game this week for a big $6).

 

I want to see players to cheer, players to watch grow, players that play god baseball, and a team that wins. 

 

Otherwise, I'll just move to Milwaukee.

Edited September 15, 2014 by Rosterman

[brvama]

Excellent article. I concur with most everything. Thanks. Have couple of thoughts.

 

First, it seems human nature makes it difficult to make changes even when changes are obvious. We tend to think that it is easier to live with the "devil" we know than then the one we don't. In business, that is not wise, but while I applaud loyality there comes time to change. I believe we have reach that point.

 

Secondly, Gardy has been at the helm for 13 years with past success and recent falilure. It certainly isn't his fault entirely for the failure because of the lack of talent provided. However, times often require a new and fresh approach. I have learned that as a board director. Our CEO retired and I thought that we would never be able to replace him with someone as accomplished. WRONG! His much younger replacement has brought a new vitality and energy that has made us more or less forget our "perfect" CEO of the past.

 

Change for change sake shouldn't be the common approach, BUT when things are going nowhere, change is necessary. I like Gardy and respect his contributions, but it's time for change.

 

[DocBauer]

First post:

 

I know, and agree, the post isn't about "failure" in regard to the Twins, the Braves, or any of a number of streaking teams. BUT, since it was broached, I feel obliged to comment just the same.

 

I suppose, in sports in general, success vs failure depends on personal position. I have always thought the point in sports was to compete, to win, and as a result, to compete for championships. But in every single sport, there is always ONE single champion. Only ONE team who ends the season on a truly positive note. But again, in any sport, being a winning ball club with a chance, a real chance, to be in the playoffs, a chance to be in THE game(s), is what you can ask and hope for in any season.

 

Our own Vikings had 4 high quality "championship caliber" teams in the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, they never won. But does that truly diminish the outstanding accomplishments of those decade plus dominate teams? The Bills, sticking with the NFL for a moment, went to 4 straight Super Bowls without winning one. But are those teams truly "losers" because they lost? The Atlanta Braves strung together an amazing run of division winning, "championship caliber" teams but only won one. You can say disappointing, but, failure?

 

There are a multitude of examples I could list, of course. The point being simple though; winning and having a shot to be the best is what you can ask for, hope for, build for, and play for. But each and every year, there will only be one champion crowned.