Article: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Draft Position

[Cody Christie]

There is a silver lining to this gray cloud for the Minnesota Twins and their fans.

 

At the midway point of the season, the Twins posted a 44-50 record to sit at a .469 winning percentage. Flash-forward to the second half of the year and Minnesota is 15 games under .500 with a .347 winning percentage (entering play on Tuesday). The younger players are working out some of their kinks but the losses continue to pile up.During the 2013 season, the Twins finished the second half with a .386 winning percentage as the club was 16 games under .500 for that stretch. This included posting an 8-20 record for the final month of the year. 2012 and 2011 were also rough second halves with .390 and .301 winning percentages. That's a lot of second half losses but bad rosters, injuries, and a rough group in the rotation will do that to a team.

If a person wants to look on the bright side of things, the mounting Minnesota losses do lead to some positives. The 90-loss seasons of the last three years have resulted in the Twins earning three straight top five draft picks. This has brought a trio of top-notch prospects into the organization. Byron Buxton, Kohl Stewart, and Nick Gordon might be among the keys to getting the organization back on track and those picks wouldn't have happened without some terrible Septembers.

 

This year, the Twins losing ways at the start of September have the club positioned to slide into a top five pick for the fourth year in a row.

 

 This is the third post in a series looking at different story lines in relation to the Twins as the season comes to a close (Part 1: Starting Rotation, Part 2: Prospect Promotions). September has been a rough month over the last three seasons and this year is following that trend. The motto of the month might be "Wake Me Up When September Ends" but there seems to be a small glimmer of hope on the horizon. This could give you a reason to still pay attention over the final weeks. 

 

Projected 2015 MLB Draft Order

 

1. Texas Rangers 54-89

 

2. Houston Astros

 

3. Colorado Rockies 59-85 4.5 GB

 

4. Arizona D-Backs 59-84 5.0 GB

 

5. Minnesota Twins 61-82 7.0 GB

 

6. Houston Astros 63-81 8.5 GB

 

7. Boston Red Sox 63-81 8.5 GB

The Texas Rangers seem to have a stronghold on the top pick in the draft and Houston is guaranteed to pick second after failing to sign this year's top pick, Brady Aiken, This leaves the Twins stalking the Diamondbacks and the Rockies for the third worst record in baseball.

 

When looking at the strength of schedule for these teams, this is shaping up to be a tight race to the end. The Twins opponents the rest of the way have roughly a .500 winning percentage which is tied with the Rockies. The Diamondbacks have a little bit easier road, with opponents' winning percentage around .480. The Red Sox and the Astros are behind Minnesota and they have tougher opponents the rest of the way.

 

How well a team is playing can also impact its draft position. Some teams play a lot better down the stretch than their overall records would indicate. Over the last 20 games, the Twins have the 26th worst record in baseball. The only team on the above list with a record as bad as Minnesota is Arizona and they have the same record. Texas and Boston are one game better. While some teams have been struggling, the Rockies have been two games over .500 in the last 20.

 

So what's the prize at the end of the road? It's tough to know how the draft will shape up over the next few months. When dealing with a combination of high school and college players, a lot can impact their draft stock. Last week, Baseball America said "one of the strengths of this draft class is high school bats and prep power." That being said, it sounds like the top of the draft will be pitcher-heavy.

 

Does losing stink at the end of the year? Well, yes, but another top notch prospect could only add to the organization's depth.

 

If you are going to be bad, it pays to be really bad...

 

especially in September.

 

Click here to view the article

[hybridbear]

This is true. Time for the Twins to fully tank and go for a top draft pick. Mauer & Gibson could have the rest of the season off. Even Hughes could take these last couple weeks to rest. Let Meyer and May start more games to see how they do. Start Santana at SS and Pinto at C and Vargas at 1B and see what happens.

[Dantes929]

Other Septembers were more depressing to me. May, Santana, Vargas Hicks and Arcia are more interesting that what we have been left with in the past. I know a lot of fans are impatient with the rebuild but I am intrigued by it. In 2011 we were promoting guys that were failing in the minors. Now we are promoting guys who are earning it and that will eventually result in a competitive team.

[Old Twins Cap]

Tough to root for your team to lose, but, if it means a quicker route to your team being able to win, well, that's the spot we are in.

[gunnarthor]

I haven't really studied the 2015 draft pool yet but with Aiken and Bickford eligible, we know that at least two good starting pitchers have been added to that depth.  And it's nice to hear the draft is strong in HS bats since that's what the Twins like to take.

[Monkeypaws]

I guess if you are gonna stink, stink royally.

 

Buxton, Stewart, and Gordon have been our rewards so far.

 

One more for posterity's sake.

[Brandon]

I've been writing about this in the Forums section and updating it since the Twins have traded their vets.  The Twins are likely to finish either 3rd 4th or 5th worst record at this point.  Houston is not guaranteed the 2nd pick of the draft if they have to sign the 5th pick whom they agreed to a handshake agreement with and then reneged and is being pursued by the union.  Then Houston will be over slot bonus and forfeit their next 2 first round picks.  They may get to keep the 2nd and loose their other pick so what do I know.

[USAFChief]

Ugh.

[James Richter]

I think for everybody's sanity it would be best to see some indication that the guys who are getting more playing time this month can win at a decent clip against .500-ish competition. I can forgive them for losing a bunch of games in the last at-bat to the best team in baseball. Now I want to see them win at least half of their 6 Sept. games against Cleveland. Last night was a good start.

[Kwak]

Play to win the rest of the way--use the best line-up(s) possible.  In this way, proper assessment of all personnel can be performed. Adjustments or replacements can be made on said proper assessment.  It is required to know the strengths and weaknesses of the team to move forward to long term success.  Playing to lose would teach nothing.  Playing to win and winning would be illuminative--so would playing to win but losing!

Edited September 10, 2014 by Kwak

[SarasotaBill]

Lose as much as possible.

1. Better draft pick (Duke and VA have top pitchers).

2. Convince Ryan and ownership that a true ace is needed and sign Lester for 100 to 120 million.

[drock2190]

Lose as much as possible.

1. Better draft pick (Duke and VA have top pitchers).

2. Convince Ryan and ownership that a true ace is needed and sign Lester for 100 to 120 million.

 

No thanks on Lester. The last couple years before this year he was mediocre. He's overperforming to a degree and thats going to net him a big contract.

[Hammer of Killebrew]

Personally, I'd rather see some progress from the young guys then higher draft picks.  But with our team we can probably have our cake and eat it too.  Also, I'd like us to take a guy that's got a little more polish over a high school prospect.  We need help fast.       

[twinsfan34]

I'm still hoping MLB takes away the 1st RD pick from the Astros this year so they don't get the #2 slot.

 

Twins are sitting #5 today.

[Danchat]

Lose as much as possible.

1. Better draft pick (Duke and VA have top pitchers).

2. Convince Ryan and ownership that a true ace is needed and sign Lester for 100 to 120 million.

I think locking up 100 to 120 million on a single player is a really, really bad idea. He could begin to regress in his middle 30s and become a complete waste of money. Look at how many people are/have been complaining about Joe Mauer! Signing Lester would get us back in the same situatino. I'd much rather draft a pitcher with the talent of Lester and wait for him and get him cheap and pitch him while he's young.

[Kwak]

I think locking up 100 to 120 million on a single player is a really, really bad idea. He could begin to regress in his middle 30s and become a complete waste of money. Look at how many people are/have been complaining about Joe Mauer! Signing Lester would get us back in the same situatino. I'd much rather sign a pitcher with the talent of Lester and wait for him and get him cheap and pitch him while he's young.

 If they only knew what that guys name--maybe they would.

[kab21]

I think locking up 100 to 120 million on a single player is a really, really bad idea. He could begin to regress in his middle 30s and become a complete waste of money. Look at how many people are/have been complaining about Joe Mauer! Signing Lester would get us back in the same situatino. I'd much rather draft a pitcher with the talent of Lester and wait for him and get him cheap and pitch him while he's young.

 

I would much rather do both.

 

FWIW - Mauer's contract has not had a negative financial impact for the Twins regardless of him being overpaid.  Even with that contract they are still well below their spending limit.  They could even add another mega contract and be below their limit. 

 

With the number of pre-arb players in starting roles and the staggered end of the only significant contracts on the Twins there should be money to spend for a number of years.  The choice is spend the money or don't spend it.  And the choice is to spread that money over several okay players (from Correia to Hughes to Nolasco level) or to invest in a near premium player like Scherzer/Lester.  Undoubtedly the Twins will not but it's certainly possible.