Article: Who Should Be Gone From the Coaching Staff?

[Nick Nelson]

After dropping four straight against the red-hot Angels over the weekend, the Twins now have 82 losses on the season. That's more than every major-league team other than Arizona, Colorado and Texas.

 

This is good news because it means the Twins are likely headed toward another top pick in next year's draft. Texas is basically assured of finishing with baseball's worst record -- they're already at 89 losses -- but the Twins could easily be picking anywhere from second to fifth. Top five selections have bolstered the Minnesota system in recent years, leading to players like Byron Buxton, Kohl Stewart and Nick Gordon.

 

Of course, the rapidly escalating loss total is also bad news because it means that -- once again -- the Twins are completely tanking late in the season.The sweep at the hands of the Angels marks the fourth time since the beginning of August that the Twins have lost four straight games. Their overall record during that span is 13-23 -- a .361 winning percentage that is depressingly similar to their August/September marks from the past few seasons.

 

When you watch the games, you'd have a hard time saying that the team has simply given up or stopped trying. Three of the games in the Angels series were closely contested and could have gone either way. The offense has churned out runs in recent weeks.

 

Yet, the Twins have lost 12 of their last 15, and as they continue to slide it's looking more and more like they might reach 95 losses in a fourth straight season. Individual bright spots have certainly been evident, but the losing just continues at an outrageous rate.

 

This naturally brings us back to a question that was posed frequently in recent discussions over the outlook for the 2015 Twins: With so little on-field improvement, how can the same coaching staff remain intact going forward?

 

There have been -- and will be -- calls for Ron Gardenhire's dismissal, and that's understandable. He's the manager that has overseen this extended stretch of losing, and ultimately the accountability for all this poor overall play should fall on his shoulders. It has been extremely rare in MLB history for a manager to survive four consecutive 90-loss seasons.

 

However, it sounds like Terry Ryan and the Twins are (unsurprisingly) committed to bringing Gardenhire back, as they apparently consider him the best man to bring their rebuild full-circle. Many people might have a tough time stomaching that reality, but I can live with it. As frustrating as the losses have been, Gardy has done some good things with his lineups and I haven't had any major issues with his in-game management.

 

The impact of his impressive young offensive unit has been negated, however, by a familiar downfall: pitching. This team has been utterly horrible at preventing runs, allowing 5.6 per game on average since the All-Star break.

 

In part, that's because of poor defense, especially in the outfield. In part, it's young starters and relievers taking their lumps and learning to adjust. But the excuses run thin when you consider just how long the Twins have reigned as one of the most hittable teams in baseball. The faces change and the results stay the same.

 

The Twins currently rank second-to-last among AL teams in ERA. That's the same place they've finished in each of the last three years.

 

The man running this staff has had some success stories -- with Phil Hughes certainly standing out as the most notable recent example -- but those have been few and far between. More and more it seems that Rick Anderson's standing is buoyed by past accomplishments that are now disappearing in the rearview mirror. I don't have enough insight as to what happens behind the scenes to declare him a horrible pitching coach, but with the number of young hurlers that have come up and struggled, and the number of pitchers that have been drastically worse here than elsewhere, the evidence has mounted against him to the point of being overwhelming.

 

For me, it would be difficult to view Anderson's retention at this point as anything more than a move to continue appeasing Gardenhire, his longtime friend and co-captain at the helm. And while I'm OK with keeping Gardy around, making decisions based around his comfort is nearly impossible to justify with the way things have been going.

 

When the Twins extended Gardenhire last year, they gave him a two-year deal, meaning he's under contract for next year. But his assistants were only extended for one year. Moving on from Anderson wouldn't require firing him. But to actively re-sign him for another year, with the results we've seen in now four straight seasons, would send a really painful signal to fans.

 

Whether or not he's the problem, the Twins have got to try something new.

 

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[bird]

First of all, I place close to zero credibility in the quote purportedly extracted from Ryan by Sir Sidney. I'm relying on the myriad of quotes that clearly state that this is not a certainty.

 

That said, I have this nagging suspicion that Gardy is a goner, and that they have been leaning towards a change for over a year, but being the slowest-moving decision-makers imaginable, they just weren't quite ready to pull the trigger last fall. If it's Molitor, they may already have had secret conversations about who stays and who goes. And if it's surprisingly someone from the outside, I'd be inclined to think they would limit the new manager's authority and do what they've always done, which is make those decisions in-house and then describe them to us as a consensus decision. My guess is that Ryan's safe for now and will be firmly in charge of it.

[Monkeypaws]

When you trade for guys or sign them via free agency, and they go on to have historically bad seasons, like Vanimal, like Nolasco, and now, like Milone, something's gotta give. 

 

Maybe Anderson gets some credit, for Hughes, but not necessarily.

 

Our rotation needs a new approach, and letting Anderson go would be a nice first step.

[jharaldson]

The Twins have the worst ERA for starting pitching over the last 5 years.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,d

 

It isn't getting better as we are dead last again this year.  Rick Anderson has been the pitching coach during that entire tenure and he absolutely needs to be held accountable for this poor performance and be let go from this team.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Scotty Ulger and Joe Vavra need to go as well as Anderson and Gardenhire. This a very sloppy fielding and poor pitching team. Much of it is talent, but emphasis and coaching plays a major part. At the end of the day, the most important part is accountability. We hear that word from the team and yet Gardy, Anderson, Vavra and Ulger still coach one of the worst fundamentally sound teams in baseball.

[jharaldson]

For further comparison, from 2005-2009, the previous 5 year period, the Royals were dead last in starting pitching era and fired 2 coaches, Guy Hansen in 2006 and Bob McClure in 2011.  

[Linus]

Scotty Ulger and Joe Vavra need to go as well as Anderson and Gardenhire. This a very sloppy fielding and poor pitching team. Much of it is talent, but emphasis and coaching plays a major part. At the end of the day, the most important part is accountability. We hear that word from the team and yet Gardy, Anderson, Vavra and Ulger still coach one of the worst fundamentally sound teams in baseball.

Actually, I don't believe coaching plays a "major" part.  The Twins have had fundamentally sound teams and good pitching under this regime at certain points in the past.  What it really shows is that the Twins just haven't had many good players lately.

 

Fire them all if you want, just don't think coaching will take this starting rotation and turn it into gold.  I'm not advocating for keeping them either but it is way more important to go get a couple of pitchers than a couple new coaches.

[Brandon]

The talent was bad and this is a team in transition.  There have been some bright spots.  I am ok with bringing the gang back next year to see what they can do.  If we are not a .500 team or close to it next year then changes will have to be made as we have several building blocks in place and a power offense moving forward.  If Nolasco can at least go back to being an average starter we have 3 decent starters for next year and we have a few solid bullpen arms on the way.  With that we should be a .500 team.  We are having a bad September because we messed with the staff by adding and playing the extras for a tryout which I why the rest of this season doesn't bother me too much.  If we went with a 25 or 27 man roster to win as many games as possible I would be disappointed with a sub .500 September. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What if Gardenhire and Anderson really are the biggest obstacle to this team winning? How will we ever know if we don't try someone else?

[Rosterman]

Molitor or Steinbach will be the new manager. There has to be a coaching shakeup, yet there should probably be a general manager shakeup, too...but then everyone would be gone and people from outside would come in. Who's the new pitching coach, Cuellar? Do the Twins advance Glynn and others from the minors?

 

We have to see some of the bullpen kids. Four guys need at least five appearances each the remainder of the season. 

 

Hicks needs at bats. Santana needs to play shirt. Pinto needs to throw out runners. Vargas needs to take turns at first.

 

There's not many bodies to change on the roster. Could see a free agent slugger/outfielder. A better pure backup catcher (let Pinto start at AAA yet again). Buy a #1 starter. They have more than enough bullpen arms to play musical chairs out of spring training. Swarzak, Duensing, Parmelee are all bubble guys, yet can be kept because the money is there. Even Burton could be resigned.

 

With another losing season, though, who wants to come play here no matter how much money they dangle. It has to be more than others will pay, period. Ball players are fully aware that you can predict the future, no matter how much stock you put in Buxton, Sano, Stewart and others.

[ashbury]

I don't think Anderson is necessarily a "bad" pitching coach.  But his job is to find answers and not enough answers have been found the past several seasons.  I like Ryan and am OK with Gardy, but I think pitching coach is a weak spot that needs to be addressed.

[Winston Smith]

Enough is enough! A fresh approach, some new ideas and a new voice certainly can't do any worse. Only one team over the last four years has more losses and to try selling the same old same  old again this off season? I would think Jim Pohlad is a better businessman than that.

 

St Peter what is all this losing doing to your "brand"? No All Star game to market this winter!

[Halsey Hall]

I posted yesterday I'd like to see Gardy without Anderson and somehow missed the out. So, to get it corrected. Anderson should go, but I think Gardy will be back. If that still fails, Gardy can go fishing the rest of his life.

[Halsey Hall]

Anyone have any idea how much this pitching coach makes a year?

[NotTorii]

I can't believe this discussion is taking place - on ANY other MLB team the manager would not make it to the end of the season! (See Houston)  The Pitching coach needs to go too, as well as TR. 

 

I've been a season ticket holder for the past 6 years - and unfortunately was witness to yet another Gardy decision, Phil Hughes pitching - rocky first 3 innings, then BAM!  he gets 3 straight 1-2-3 inings and is crusing - 101 pitches, but mosty well located fast balls - mysteriously Gardy decides that it's time for his "8th inning guy", apparently because, "that's the way we have always done it!".  We get our fannies handed to us in the 8th and 9th - go on to lose 8-5.

 

Perkins bobblehead night - crowd announced at 28k - I'd be shocked if there were more than 15K there.  Heard a lot of people in my section (105) questioning the baseball decisions of that night and the past 4 years.

 

It's time to move on . . .

[tobi0040]

Regarding the draft pick, best case scenario I would believe is 3rd overall.  Houston will get #2 because they did not sign Aiken and Texas will get #1.

 

Regarding the coaches, what is the case for Gardy?  That is the issue here, IMO.  He was hung out to dry regarding his pitching staff. I give you that.  But what does he bring to the table?  I think he is behind the times and stubborn, and frankly holding the team back.  The lack of platooning and playing guys at their actual position (Santana, Pinto, etc.), I believe are holding this team back.  

[Boom Boom]

Coaches the Twins have held accountable:

 

Jerry White

Steve Liddle

Rick Stelmaczek (though I'm pretty sure he was planning on retiring that year anyway)

 

Now... for the last four years we've been hearing "What's Gardenhire supposed to do with the awful, ratty, scummy roster he's been given"... but if anything, the guys the Twins did hold accountable had substantially less to do with the success/failure of the team than Gardenhire.

 

IMO, Gardenhire and Anderson should have been gone already, but I'd be shocked if the Twins actually cut them loose.  The Twins FO is married to those two guys.

[James Richter]

Particularly damning for the coaching staff this year is the degree to which this team's record is underperforming against expectations. By the Pythagorean expected winning% they should have 4 more wins and be on target for a sub-90 loss season. That would make a huge difference in terms of showing progress to the fan base. Also, in the 2nd half the pitching staff has an ERA more than a full run higher than FIP and xFIP. Part of that's the defense, but I think it has more to do with all the crooked numbers the staff has been allowing. The starters fold as soon as they get in a jam; the relievers come in to stop the bleeding but instead throw gas on the fire. That's been true of rookies and veterans alike.

 

Under the circumstances, a change in pitching coach is definitely warranted, and I wouldn't be upset if Gardy moved along as well.

[Linus]

Regarding the draft pick, best case scenario I would believe is 3rd overall.  Houston will get #2 because they did not sign Aiken and Texas will get #1.

 

Regarding the coaches, what is the case for Gardy?  That is the issue here, IMO.  He was hung out to dry regarding his pitching staff. I give you that.  But what does he bring to the table?  I think he is behind the times and stubborn, and frankly holding the team back.  The lack of platooning and playing guys at their actual position (Santana, Pinto, etc.), I believe are holding this team back.  

What's holdin this team back is a lack of good players.  I understand the frustration and I couldn't care less if they fire them all or bring them back.  I just think we all have to be realistic about how much of an impact the manager and coaches really make.  I can't find much of anything to defend Gardy and Andy.  I am also ready to say that you could have hand picked your manager and pitching coach at the beginning of the year and the results would essentially be the same.

[drjim]

You wrote an article that long just to say that perhaps Rick Anderson should go?

[tobi0040]

What's holdin this team back is a lack of good players.  I understand the frustration and I couldn't care less if they fire them all or bring them back.  I just think we all have to be realistic about how much of an impact the manager and coaches really make.  I can't find much of anything to defend Gardy and Andy.  I am also ready to say that you could have hand picked your manager and pitching coach at the beginning of the year and the results would essentially be the same.

 

It is the little things and I get that we would be terrible either way.  But I don't understand how playing Santana in center field is making this team better this year or next.  How putting Pinto on the DH or bench is a wise move.  If I saw logic applied to the lineup, see some platooning,, I would feel more comfortable with Gardy in the future.

[James Richter]

The fan base has clearly lost interest in the product the Twins have been putting on the field. But I agree with Nick that an aggressive roster overhaul this offseason would be a mistake. If the FO is thinking that way, too, then replacing Gardy may be the most effective way to reassure the fans that next year won't be more of the same.

[beckmt]

Do not think much will happen.  If Anderson goes, so will Gardy as those 2 are joined at the hip.  Would like to see one of the minor league managers given a shot, things could not be worse.  It will be an interesting offseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I haven't been a huge Rick Anderson fan for quite some time (or Gardy for that matter).

 

I'm fine with Gardy staying on board for one more season if that's what the front office wants to do... But Anderson needs to go. I've seen enough bad pitching in the past four seasons to last a lifetime.

[drjim]

I'm indifferent to what they do with Anderson if they keep Gardy.

[Kwak]

Let me see...the premise of this article is:  "it's the coaching staff that's at fault! Or maybe only one of the coaches is the problem.  Just replace that coach and everything is 'fixed'."  I guess if those coaches just were as loyal as the bloggers this mess would never have happened. 

 

What was that record from August again?  And wasn't this post-ASG schedule "softer"?  The W/L record should have improved not regressed.  Is this the coaches fault?  After all this team isn't laden with no-talent boobs, nor besieged by injury to key regulars that preven the team from (at least) duplicating the win percentage from before the ASG.

 

  The lineup used is nearly totally comprised of players that were on the Active Roster in July.  Weren't Santana and Vargas promoted after the ASG and didn't both of them markedly improve the team?  So what gives?  The coaching staff didn't have time to corrupt them yet--so they are still very productive?

 

One would have to have blind loyalty to management to suggest that the problem was caused by one (or more) of the coaches and that all that needs to be done is to replace those "ungrateful coaches" and the Twins' problems will be fixed.  The attitude that "just a tweek or two and all will be fixed" is reprehensible and runs counter to all evidence.  Failure doesn't imply that any of the people involved are "bad people", it simply means that "their bit doesn't work anymore" and new people with a fresh perspective, energy, and motivation are needed. 

[Thegrin]

Too much terrible baserunning. Molitor has to go.

[USAFChief]

They all should be gone, unless Dave Martinez wants to bring any of them back as part of his staff.

[tobi0040]

I think instead of "should Gardy go", the question that is more important is who is the best person to lead this team in the future?

 

I think many people that would say Gardy hasn't been bad enough or does not deserve to be fired, still need to look at that second question and ponder.  I don't believe he is the best guy out there.

[Nick Nelson]

Let me see...the premise of this article is:  "it's the coaching staff that's at fault! Or maybe only one of the coaches is the problem.  Just replace that coach and everything is 'fixed'."  I guess if those coaches just were as loyal as the bloggers this mess would never have happened.

That's your takeaway, eh? Because it's really not remotely similar to what I actually wrote.